8 Years Later - Still Not Winning

Profitable traders do this,successful traders do that.Traders on the right side of the market do this,profitable traders following big money do that.Everyone seems to have an answer as to why traders should be profitable.If it was as easy as doing one of the above,wouldn't everyone be doing/trying one of the above.Trading is hard
...plain and simple.I have had a few businesses in my life and luckily all have been moderately profitable,but none has been even remotely close to the pressure that forex trading dishes out.I do believe that fear and greed are the primary movers of this industry and that is why forex is constantly evolving(our fear and greed constantly change).I have been trading forex for around 13 years and when i awake to trade ,I still do have patches of euphoria and downright misery.This,I believe ,will not change because i am a risk taker and not a robot.For me personally,I do not think that i will achieve.."complete emotional free trading",but that's fine.I am on a journey and believe that most traders are on a journey ,just like me.

Not even gonna lie, I'm most profitable when I click enter at market or put a limit on and feel absolutely nothing once it's filled and carry on, like a machine win or lose, enter where your system says to and get out when it feels right or take a loss going off your rules. Then re enter. Rinse / repeat.

The minute you introduce emotions into the mix - game over. Taking a loss always is negative and the following decision is normally a reaction of that, hence the losing. You're playing with an emotionless market so treat it as such. It's ruthless - be worse.

Its not hard, but complicated.
1. Trade a weak currency against a strong one or vice-versa.
So far, the USD is mainly strong. The FED maintained the interest rate at 2% and forecast that they will gradually raise it. They are now comfortable with the inflation and the majority of performance indicators are pointing up.
Now look for a weak currency, like the British Pound or the Australian Dollar.

2. Fundamentals dictate the direction of the market.
Supply and demand and interest rates are the most important when talking about depreciation or appreciation of a currency.
Banks have huge stockpiles of cash sitting around, but they want to make a profit from it, or at least keep up with inflation, so they will look for the best currency for the job, one that gives the best interest rate/loss from inflation ratio, but at the same time get satisfied with economical stability.

3. Technicals are mostly bullshit.
No hedge fund manager or bank trader gives a f*** about your cup whatever pattern or your stupid favorite oscillator. If the fundamentals point up, they will buy in, and all smart money too. That increases demand, and if supply don't keep up, prices go up. Simple as that.
I've seen the price pump 80 pips in 2 minutes before the release of some important statistical data that was expected to be bad. That is caused by people that had shorted and were unsure about the numbers that would come out, they closed their positions and waited to be sure, making the price go up because they bought back to close their shorts, and only after the statistic thing was published they when short again.
The point is that the price may go up or down because of technicals, but only if the fundamentals match that direction. Its like "oh, things look bad for AUD, but there is a support line there and the price is going up because people are uncertain about this data that is about to get released, maybe I should wait until I short AUDUSD so I can maximize my profits and tighten my stop".
So don't all in just because of some stupid pattern or breakthrough.

4. Trade with the trend.
Don't trade breakouts or channels. There are better alternatives.
If the price is flatted, its because both currencies are strong or weak and there is an agreement (more like a settlement) about the price, so the only thing moving it is speculation, and God knows what else...
Its much better to trade something more decisive and certain.

5. Technical indicators
I've mentioned that most technical analysis is bullshit. Well, most of it, but not all of it.
I personally use moving averages and On-balance Volume.
The 30 and 50 periods simple moving average have proven themselves to be support or resistance lines with time, at least to me. If the price bounces and continues the trend after touching the 30, from in between the 30 and 50 or after touching the 50 MA, you can consider it as a trend, even if there is no concrete trend line established. If the price goes past the 50 MA, abandon that pair and find another one.
On-balance volume is pretty simple to understand. It tracks volume. Its a reliable indicator to better understand if some movement or trend has substantial volume backing it. Google about OBV.

6. Confluence and risk management
If there is confluence, if the price is close to hitting a fibo level, and its inside the MA mentioned above, plus there is a trend line, or even a round number, then technicals indicate like the price will bounce from those resistance levels. But what about the fundamentals? If your fundamental analysis also point to a continuation of the trend (like if you were waiting for some important data to be released), its a good idea to buy in or short after the fundamentals "concur" with the technicals.
Risk no more than 1 or 2 percent of your account, Set your stop above those resistance levels and give it some extra room too, and set your TP to about 80% of the size (in pips) of the last impulsive wave (the one that move in the direction of the trend), and try to find some round number or past resistance/support level from stronger longer-term periods so your TP is before that level, just to be sure.


Thats it. If I remember anything else I'll edit the post.
Good look and feel free to ask anything.

There’s a lot of knowledge involved in trading that you have to learn them all, and eventually put them all together and they come together like a puzzle and everything starts working, took me a while



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Yes, I thought I had it all figured out at about 8 years in. Then the market turned and I took a 60% drawdown. It took a couple years to regain what I had lost. So do I have it all figured out now? Maybe I'm smart enough now to know I don't know. Maybe I never will, but I'm profitable, for now at least. I may have to just accept that.

Trading is simple, trade management is also simple. All what we want to know is to identify a repetitive pattern and execute and manage trades in a consistent way. We cannot control the market, each trade will take its own destiny.

We as traders always looking for a holy grail and try to avoid losing trades. I am sure you would have stumbled upon many winning strategies in last 8 years. But you may not have had the belief. or patience to master that.

What is your trading time frame?

Are you a day-trader or long term trader?

nice answer. How long did it take for you to become profitable? I am strugling for 1.5 years, hopefully I will learn sooner than in 8 years

here i am struggling from 2 years, losses after losses

very sad arjun what's ur strategy discuss with me i will help u.

I am just going to get this out there and really don't care if any of you take offence to it. The truth is 9 out of 10 of you will never make it in this business. The main reason is you waste your time in trying to predict future price based on past price and don't pay any attention to drivers of price. Indicators and charts can produce a 50 to 60 percent win rate at best. This might seem okay but the problem is technical based systems don't work in all markets and most of you either won't or struggle to adjust and recognise conditions changing. If you have been sitting for several years and have made no real progress you need to decide if you should give up or make major changes and start analysing the market based on its drivers instead of price. It's more work but ultimately more consistent and for once you will know why price is moving and how much it is likely to continue.

Thanks.
I've been trading demo for almost 1 year now. I've been profitable for over 8 months now. But I'll trade demo-only for at least 18 profitable consecutive months before risking any real money.
More important than practicing is studying. You've got to study fundamentals and understand macro economy, and then learn the basics of technical analysis. That's all you need before practicing with a demo account.

If you have not been profitable for 1.5 years you're doing something wrong. It wouldn't take more than 3 months for someone to see how the real world compares to the text book.

That is so true.
Thanks for contributing.

The problem with trading Forex is that people come in to make a killing making money hand over feet. Unfortunately there are occasions that one can do that and that hooks you in. Why don't people treat trading like doing sports? If I kick a ball around, practice and join a team and try to score goals, does it mean I am going to become a highly paid football player? Every highly paid player started that way but everyone starting that way will attain the ultimate place where they conquer the game and have a ton of money to show for it?

Just kick the ball around and enjoy. They have cent accounts now. Everybody go prove yourself in the minor minor league and if you are good at it, then build on it.

My advice, if you are in too deep and it's not working, step away. take a break and come back in a while. Stay away until you forget your routines and your biases and then when you come back, you can have a fresh mindset with the additional element of experience and insight still attached.

Yes, forget about getting rich trading Forex. Go get a good job, establish yourself and become independent of Forex and once that is done, come back and still see trading just as one possible means of getting rich on the side. If it still doesn't work, so what. You had fun kicking the ball around.

ecotrader has good insight. Anyone reading this would be doing themselves a huge favour to consider what he is saying.

I give this advice to newbies all the time, but they rarely listen. I have now literally spent years trading at 1 cent per pip. Like almost everyone else I was initially attracted by the dream of quick riches and lost a lot very quickly. It was only because I really enjoyed trading as a sport (kicking the ball around), that I stayed with it long enough to become profitable at larger trade sizes. I disagree with those that say most people will never be successful at this because they don't have the natural skills. I believe most people will never be successful because they lose a lot of money in the beginning and quit. So, the obvious solution is don't risk a whole lot of money in the beginning (trade demo and then at most 1 cent per pip), and don't quit. Really, you haven't failed until you quit. -G

Most people are not successful because of the following;

1. They don't have an edge
2. Even those who have one don't follow it.

I advice anyone who has an edge to start trading that edge with demo, or very small account for at least one year to build what I call the Trader's confidence before trading it big.

My personal story: It took Me 4 years to identify a particular market pattern. When I found it i taught I had found a gold mine. I invested all my savings(10 000$) and was trading it with the pope's balls. Sure enough I didn't follow it, kept doubting it,kept doubting myself, remembering all the edges I had found in the past that didn't eventually work. Blew the account eventually, then kept moving from strategy to strategy. I can't believe I dished my sound plan for usually untested inches, when I had no strategy to implement I went ahead and gambled.

Well long story short I gained the discipline 1.5years later to stick to my plan. My point, an edge is not enough you need to have confidence that you have an edge. For that you need to practice better practice cheaply. Now I can easily bet 5%, sometimes more when I see that I am up for the month without blinking an eye. I conquered my fear of losing money, good luck on your road guys.

Perfectly summed up and a very believable story. Building patience and discipline takes years.

The problem for me is that I did not find an edge. But still trying out ideas.

what thechnique are you using?
8 years not winning? always margin call? what? really?

thread author might not notice. I have tried dailypriceaciton,com reading forecasts and trying to trade by them. Tried profitunity , mostly on 4h charts using alligator, fractals, awesome oscilator, which clearly did not make profit, so I stopped. But maybe that was too small sample, need to backtest with longer time. Did make some profits on demo account in daily charts but sample even smaller because wait too long - also would need to backtest, if I knew it really works, then its no prolbme to wait.
Now mostly trying by fundamental analisis - find main theme and look at forecasts and find which forecast is strong and dragging the price to strong forecast direction and close before strong news which can turn price around. Had some luck. But sometimes I clearly misread fundamentals, like recently when trump said dollar is too strong, I thought trump is not as effective and fed still will raise interest rate, so bought USD ,but then fed released dowish also so feels like somebody knew that fed will release dowish tone and thats why eurusd rised so much. Then probably trend following strategy on like H1 chart or simliar should have worked better than fundamental analisis.
But sometimes it hapepens thos spikes, so looked like it was really good move sell eurusd while it is high, because any minute can suddenly fall becasuse fed is planning to raise rates and Trump comment is just free money.
I never have margin calls, because its the easiest part, I do not get how for other people this can be so hard thing. Some I heard use margin call as SL, so thats fine if thats the plan - you dont have to enter too much money in the account. But otherwise if you have big part or all capital in broker account and you are losing it all on few bets, becuase it is too hard for you to calculate using a calculator how much will you lose then I do not know how can you win.

Btw nice results in trade explorer. Can this really be true, just running a bot and counting money ?