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US DOLLAR PRICE ACTION SETUPS AFTER FRESH YEARLY HIGHS IN USD
The US Dollar has burst up to fresh yearly highs over the past few trading days, starting on Friday morning as EUR/USD price action began to plunge through the 1.1509 support level that had held up for the past couple of months. That theme of USD strength has largely remained ever since, with USD gapping-up on the open and running into a long-term Fibonacci level around 96.47. That resistance held into this morning, at which point USD bulls pushed through to fresh higher-highs along with the prospect of more.
US DOLLAR BREAKS OUT AND RUNS TO FRESH YEARLY HIGHS
The big item of interest since our last webinar on Thursday was the topside breakout in the US Dollar. The last time we looked at USD, we remarked on the potential for topside breakouts to fresh highs, specifically citing resistance potential at 96.00 and 96.47, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2011-2017 major move in USD.
US DOLLAR MONTHLY PRICE CHART: FEBRUARY SUPPORT AT THE 50, AUGUST RESISTANCE AT THE 23.6
That 96.47 level was the initial target for our US Dollar Q3 Technical forecast, and this came into play shortly after this week’s open, helping the Dollar to hold resistance into this morning. A few hours after today’s US open, bulls would take no more and pushed through to fresh highs. At this point, that area of resistance becomes potential short-term support for bullish continuation in USD. And the prior area of resistance can also be re-utilized for support potential.
The big question now is what might be able to elicit a pullback. This week’s economic calendar is rather light, with but a few high-impact items of interest. One item that may be compelling is tomorrow’s UK inflation report, as this had helped the Dollar to form a bottom in mid-April, just ahead of the start of that aggressively bullish run that continues today.
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BITCOIN – RECOVERS FROM SUB-$6,000 WOES, BUT MORE VOL TO COME
Bitcoin’s on the move as the Bulls recover from the shock of hitting sub-$6,000 levels, though market volatility is unlikely to abate any time soon.
Bitcoin fell by 0.99% on Tuesday, following on from Monday’s 0.99% fall, to end the day at $6,190.
While the day’s loss was a relatively minor one, it was a particularly choppy day, with Bitcoin sliding through the first major support level at $6,071.57 and second major support level at $5,899.23 to an intraday low $5,858.6.
Bitcoin managed to avoid striking a new swing lo, while the visit to sub-$6,000 levels was the first since a 29th June $5,780.
In spite of the broad based market sell-off and negative sentiment lingering in the wake of the SEC postponement to decisions on the future of a number of Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin managed to fund support to recover back through to $6,000 levels in the late morning, with a broad based market rally seeing Bitcoin test $6,200 ahead of the day’s end.
A start of a day $6,251.9 high left the day’s first major resistance level at $6,482.27 untested, with Bitcoin continuing to fall short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757, leaving the extended bearish trend, formed at 5th May’s swing hi $9,999, intact.
The sell-off seen in recent weeks that accelerated on Monday through Tuesday certainly had the feeling of a bubble bursting, with no real justification for an end to the slide other than speculative trading, with side lined investors likely to have been looking at valuations with the knowledge that the Bitcoin whales were unlikely to be jumping ship anytime soon.
Either way, the bulls stemmed the tide and, in spite of Bitcoin’s visit to sub-$6,000 levels, Bitcoin continued to hold on to its recent rise in dominance, currently sitting at 53.1%, the slide in the early hours of Tuesday having seen Bitcoin’s dominance rise to 54.62 before easing back, more material sell-offs across the other crypto majors supporting Bitcoin dominance with its less sizeable daily moves.
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THE BITCOIN BULLS EYE $6,700 LEVELS TO TAKE SUB-$6,000 OUT OF PLAY
Bitcoin is on the move early and holding on to $6,300 levels would support a return to $6,600 levels later in the day, the markets settling.
Bitcoin gained 1.11% on Wednesday, reversing Tuesday’s 0.99% loss, to end the day at $6,258.
Tuesday’s late in the day upward moves continued into the early hours of Wednesday, with Bitcoin moving through the day’s first major resistance level at $6,341.73 to a morning high $6,483 before easing back.
Holding on to $6,200 levels through the middle part of the day and avoiding another visit to sub-$6,000 levels to test the day’s first major support level at $5,948.43, supported a break back through the first major resistance level at $6,341.73 and a break through the second major resistance level at $6,493.47 to an intraday high $6,647.6.
A late sell-off saw Bitcoin pullback to $6,200 levels by the day’s end, with investor fears of another sell-off seeing intraday gains locked in early, pinning back any major recovery as the market looks ahead to the SEC Bitcoin ETF decisions and the G20 rule and regs, which are the two key drivers for Bitcoin and the broader market near-term.
For the Bitcoin bulls, holding on to $6,200 levels through the day was key, though Bitcoin continued to fall short of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757 needed to support the formation of a near-term bullish trend. The good news was Bitcoin’s break through to $6,600 levels, though Bitcoin will need to be taking a run at $6,700 levels in the coming days to avoid any sell-off.
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US DOLLAR PRICE ACTION SETUPS: PLAYING PULLBACKS, BULLS CONTINUE TO RUN
In this webinar we used price action to look at FX markets as centered around the US Dollar and major currency pairs. We’d previously looked at the US Dollar testing higher-low support earlier this morning, and a strong bullish response began to show in the Greenback just ahead of our webinar start. In this session, we looked at the prospect of continuation in this bullish theme, drawing setups across various currency pairs to work with. We also took a look at price action in Gold, WTI Oil and the Dow and S&P 500 for US equity bourses.
US DOLLAR FINDS SUPPORT AT PRIOR RESISTANCE AS BULLS PUSH AHEAD
We looked at the US Dollar interacting with a key resistance level on Tuesday, as prices had started to resist when encountering the 96.47 Fibonacci level. This is the 23.6% retracement of the 2011-2017 major move, and this is taken from the same study from which the 50% marker helped to form the three-year low in DXYin mid-February.
US DOLLAR FOUR-HOUR PRICE CHART: SUPPORT AT PRIOR FIBONACCI RESISTANCE
We discussed this theme again this morning in our article entitled, US Dollar Strength Pulls Back, EUR/USD Bounces From Yearly Lows. At the time, DXY was continuing to dig in to 96.47, and we shared a bullish short-term view that remains active as prices remain above 96.15.
On a longer-term basis, the area around 98.00 is the next (and final) target from our Q3 Technical Forecast on the US Dollar, and a bullish move up to this level could be made more attractive by a pullback in DXY to the prior zone of resistance from 95.00-95.53.
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GBP: BREXIT CONCERNS CONTINUE TO OUTWEIGH POSITIVE ECONOMIC DATA
STERLING (GBP) TALKING POINTS:

1. Positive UK data this week included four-decade low unemployment and an unexpected pick-up in retail sales.
2. Light UK data calendar next week leaves Sterling at the mercy of Brexit headlines.

We remain neutral on Sterling for the week ahead while acknowledging that Brexit headlines remains a binary risk that may move GBP sharply in either direction. Brexit talks are ongoing and, as we go to print, little news has come out of Brussels. The UK government recently announced that it will be releasing a series of no-deal Brexit papers over the next few weeks, covering over 80 areas of UK life, to highlight the potential disruptions in the event of the UK leaving the EU without a withdrawal agreement. These papers are likely to see Brexit remain in the headlines, potentially weighing on the British Pound.
This week’s data releases showed the UK economy in a positive light with unemployment and retail sales the standouts. The ILO unemployment rate fell to a 1975 low of 4%, from a prior reading of 4.2%, while UK retail sales picked up by 3.7% year-on-year, beating expectations of +2.7%. All UK inflation data were in line with analyst’s expectations. Monetary policy is unlikely to change any time soon in response to better UK data releases with the next 0.25% interest rate hike not expected until at least mid-2019.The DailyFX Economic Calendar for the next week contains no potentially UK market moving releases, while over in the US the latest FOMC minutes will be revealed on Wednesday, and should be studied by GBPUSDtraders, before a raft of global central banker’s meet for the annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.
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BITCOIN CASH, LITECOIN AND RIPPLE DAILY ANALYSIS – 20/08/18
It’s a mixed start to the day across the majors, with Monday’s having been a testy time for investors of late. Things will likely liven up through the day.
Bitcoin Cash Settles
Bitcoin Cash gained 3.09% on Sunday, partially reversing Saturday’s 8.5% fall, to end the day at $571. Sunday’s moves left Bitcoin Cash flat for the week, Monday through Sunday, with Friday’s 16.8% rally all but a distant memory.
An early morning pullback saw Bitcoin Cash fall to an intraday low $539.7, steering clear of the first major support level at $521.47, before support kicked in through the afternoon, with Bitcoin Cash moving through to an intraday high $583 before easing back, the day’s high falling short of the first major resistance level at $597.57.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was down 0.5% to $568.1, with Bitcoin Cash pulling back from a start of a day morning high $576.8 to a low $567.3, the moves through the early hours leaving the major support and resistance levels untested.
For the day ahead, a move back through to $570 levels would support a run at $580 levels to bring the first major resistance level at $589.43 into play, though for Bitcoin Cash to break through to $580 levels, a hold on to $560 levels is going to be needed through the morning.
Failure to break back through to $570 levels could see Bitcoin Cash take a hit later in the day, with a slide through to sub-$560 levels bringing the day’s first major support level at $546.13 into play, before any recovery. We would expect Bitcoin Cash to hold above the major support level barring materially negative news hitting the wires.
Litecoin Trails the Majors
Litecoin gained 0.8% on Sunday, following Saturday’s 7.25% sell-off, to end the week down 2.66% at $57.85.
A relatively range bound start to the day saw Litecoin ease back to an intraday low $56.4, holding above the first major support level at $54.47. Support from the broader market saw Litecoin move through to an early afternoon intraday high $58.98, before easing back to $57 levels, the day’s high coming up short of the first major resistance level at $61.41
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EUR/USD Rate Eyes August-High as Bearish Trends Start to Unravel
EURO TALKING POINTS
EUR/USD appears to be on track to test the August-high (1.1700) following the Fed Economic Symposium, and recent price action raises the risk for a more meaningful recovery in the exchange rate as bothprice and Relative Strength Index (RSI) threaten the bearish trends from earlier this year.
EUR/USD RATE EYES AUGUST-HIGH AS BEARISH TRENDS START TO UNRAVEL
Despite the limited reaction to Germany’s IFO Business Climate survey, EUR/USD extends the advance from the 2018-low (1.1301) amid the less-hawkish tone from Chairman Jerome Powell, and the exchange rate may continue to appreciate over the near-term as the recent rhetoric casts doubts for four Fed rate-hikes in 2018.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may opt for a dovish rate-hike in September despite the risk for above-target inflation as ‘there does not seem to be an elevated risk of overheating,’ and a growing number of central bank officials may adopt a less-hawkish tone amid the ongoing shift in U.S. trade policy.
Keep in mind, Fed Fund Futures still show bets for four rate-hikes this year, with market participants gearing up for a move in September and December, but it seems as though the central bank is in no rush to extend the hiking-cycle as ‘members agreed that the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would depend on their assessments of realized and expected economic conditions relative to the Committee’s objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.’
With that said, Chairman Powell & Co. may continue to project a neutral Fed Funds rate of 2.75% to 3.00%, and the central bank may stick to the current script throughout the remainder of the year as ‘most expressed the view that an escalation in international trade disputes was a potentially consequential downside risk for real activity.’ Easing bets for a an extended hiking-cycle may keep the dollar under pressure, with EUR/USD at risk of staging a more meaningful recovery as bothprice and Relative Strength Index (RSI) threaten the bearish trends from earlier this year. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.
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Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 28/08/18
The majors see red early off the back of some profit taking, following Monday’s gains, with a steadying pointing to rebound later in the day.
Bitcoin Cash in Reverse
Bitcoin Cash rallied 4.91% on Monday, reversing Sunday’s 2.29% loss with interest, to end the day at $549.6.
A morning move saw Bitcoin Cash come within reach of the first major resistance level at $535.33 with a morning high $534.7 before easing back. A relatively range bound afternoon saw Bitcoin Cash hover at around the $530 mark until a late in the day broad based market rally kicked in.
Bitcoin Cash rallied through the first major resistance level at $535.33 and second major resistance level at $546.47 to a late in the day intraday high $555 before pulling back to sub-$550 levels by the day’s end.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was down 0.82% to $545.2, with an early pullback seeing Bitcoin Cash fall from a morning high $551.3 to a morning low $541.2, the moves leaving the day’s major support and resistance levels untested.
For the day ahead, holding above $541.53 would support a run at $550 levels to bring $560 levels and the day’s first major resistance level at $563.07 into play, though sentiment across the broader market will need to improve to support a run at $560 levels later in the day, Bitcoin Cash tracking the broader market into the red early on.
Failure to hold on to $541 levels could see Bitcoin Cash pullback through to $530 levels to bring the first major support level at $528.07 into play before any recovery, any more material decline subject to the news wires through the day, the day’s second major support level at $506.53 unlikely to be tested on the day.
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EUR/USD Price Outlook: Euro Continuation Prospects after Fresh Highs

EUR/USD approaching initial breakout targets- Near-term bullish invalidation at 1.1614
Euro is up more than 3.5% off the yearly lows with the advance breaking through monthly open resistance today in New York trade. Here are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD charts this week.
EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHARTEUR/USD
Technical Outlook: Euro broke above confluence slope resistance yesterday around ~1.1660 with the rally now besting the August opening-range highs. Note that daily RSI has broken back above the former support trigger with daily momentum stretching into highs not seen since February. Seasonal tendencies (heading into September) favor Euro strength and the focus remains weighted to the topside in price while above 1.1510/29.
Euro has continued to trade within this near-term ascending channel off the monthly lows with the upper parallel highlighting immediate topside targets along the July high-day close at 1.1750 and the 38.2% retracement / July high at 1.1780/91. Interim support now rests at 1.1650 with near-term bullish invalidation raised to 1.1614.Bottom line: Euro has broken above the August open / monthly opening range highs and keeps the focus higher into the close of the month. That said, price has now extended higher for the third consecutive day and from a trading standpoint, we’re looking for near-term weakness to offer more favorable long-entries while within this near-term formation. Look for a bigger reaction on a rally into key near-term resistance at 1.1780/90.
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Bitcoin Bulls Eye $7,000 and a Bearish Trend Reversal
Bitcoin sees red early off the back of Monday’s gains as the bulls look for $7,000 levels to support a near-term bullish trend reversal.
Bitcoin gained 2.91% on Monday, following Sunday’s 0.52% loss, to end the day at $6,942.2, Bitcoin managing to bring to an end a sequence of 4 consecutive Monday losses.
A pullback to an early morning intraday low $6,652.7 steered clear of the first major support level at $6,573.87 supporting a move back through to $6,700 levels and a relatively range bound afternoon that left Bitcoin hovering at around the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757.
Late in the day, a broad based cryptomarket rally saw Bitcoin break out from the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757, with Bitcoin breaking through the first major resistance level at $6,805.87 and second major resistance level at $6,931.43 to strike an intraday high $6,942.2 before easing back to $6,902 by the day’s end.
The late rally saw Bitcoin hold above the first major resistance level and more importantly, the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $6,757 for the first time since 6th August, while resistance at $7,000 held Bitcoin back from more material gains on the day.
Supporting Bitcoin and the broader markets would have been the latest Bitcoin futures numbers from the U.S CFTC for the week ending 21st August, the latest report showing that short positions were on the decline, while long positions were on the rise, to provide the bulls with some much needed support. The balance remains firmly in favour of the bears however, in spite of last week’s shift, with short positions standing at 3,426 v long positions of 2,160.
Much will depend upon whether the SEC approves all or some of the Bitcoin ETFs from its current review of its latest series of rejections, though there will also be the G20 unified rules and regs to consider, which could be just what the SEC is waiting for that may ultimately lead to a rebalancing in favour of the bulls.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down just 0.18% to $6,896.8, with a choppy start to the day seeing Bitcoin pullback from an early morning high $6,963 to a morning low $6,872 before steadying, the moves through the early morning leaving the day’s major support and resistance levels untested.
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EUR/USD Resilience Accompanied by Shift in Retail Sentiment
The near-term rebound in EUR/USD appears to be losing steam as it snaps the series of higher highs & lows from the previous week, but a broader shift in market behavior appears to be taking shape as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) threaten the bearish trends from earlier this year.
Even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to raise the benchmark interest rate in September, the central bank appears to have little to no interest in speeding up the normalization process as Chairman Jerome Powelltalks down the risk for above-target inflation.
In turn, the FOMC may opt for a dovish rate-hike on September 26 as ‘participants observed that if a large-scale and prolonged dispute over trade policies developed, there would likely be adverse effects on business sentiment, investment spending, and employment,’ and the U.S. dollar my exhibit a more bearish behavior over the remains of the year if Chairman Powell & Co. continue to project a neutral Fed Funds rate of 2.75% to 3.00%.
At the same time, the IG Client Sentiment Report shows 39.6% of traders are now net-long EUR/USD, with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.52 to 1 even though the exchange rate breaks the monthly opening range.In fact, traders have been net-short since August 21 when EUR/USD traded near 1.1575. The number of traders net-long is 1.7% higher than yesterday and 5.6% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.3% higher than yesterday and 8.8% higher from last week.The recent shift in retail positioning offers a contrarian view to crowd sentiment as there appears to be a more dynamic shift in trader behavior, with the topside targets still on the radar for EURUSD as bothprice and Relative Strength Index (RSI) threaten the bearish trends from earlier this year. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.Read more:
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Bitcoin – Bulls Hold on to $7,000 with $7,300 the next Target
It’s another poor start to the day, though holding on to $7,000 levels through the morning could see the bulls take the reins later in the day.
Bitcoin gained 3.04% on Tuesday, following on from Monday’s 2.91% rise and the previous two weeks of gains, to end the day at $7,081.1.
A relatively range bound start to the day saw Bitcoin steer clear of the day’s major support and resistance levels until a late morning rally, Bitcoin breaking through to $7,000 levels and the day’s first major resistance level at $7,011.9 and second major resistance level at $7,121.8 to a morning high $7,126.1.
Sub-$7,000 support held Bitcoin back from a reversal through the afternoon, with Bitcoin breaking back through the second major resistance level at $7,121.8 with a late in the day intraday high $7,127.9, before easing back to sub-$7,100 levels by the day’s end.
It was Bitcoin’s first close at $7,000 levels since 5th August, with the moves through the start of the week seeing Bitcoin begin to form a near-term bullish trend, though a break through the 38.2% FIB Retracement Level of $7,376 would be needed to begin reversing the extended bearish trend formed back at 5th May’s swing hi $9,999.
The recent moves have come in spite of lingering concerns over the planned roll out of cryptomarket rules and regulations by the G20, more heavy handedness by the Chinese government and the SEC’s rejection and review of 9 Bitcoin ETF applications last week.
A fall in short positions, according to last week’s CFTC figures provided some early signs that the extended bearish trend may be coming to an end, supporting the start of the week gains, though much will continue to depend on regulators.
Expectations are that the SEC will approve a number of Bitcoin ETFs in the coming months that limited the damage following the SEC decision last week, which does continue to leave Bitcoin and the broader market exposed heavily to regulatory risk over the near-term.
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Bitcoin – Struggling to Hit $7,000 as the Cryptos Give up more Ground
A morning pullback has seen Bitcoin struggle to move back through to $7,000 levels, which could spell trouble later in the day.
Bitcoin fell by 0.76% on Thursday, following Wednesday’s 0.64% drop, to end the day at $6,985.5.
Negative regulatory chatter weighed through the morning, with Wednesday’s news of the planned discussion on cryptocurrencies and lack of regulatory oversight at next month’s EU Finance meetings bringing the start of a near-term bearish trend to an end.
Bitcoin slid from a start of a day intraday high $7,060 to a late afternoon intraday low $6,802.1, the extended reversal seeing Bitcoin slide through the day’s first major support level at $6,925.93 and second major support level at $6,817.57 before finding support at $6,800.
A broad based market recovery late in the day saw Bitcoin break back through the day’s major support levels, while ending the day at sub-7,000 levels for the first time since the start of the week.
The moves mid-week were a reminder for investors of just how sensitive the broader market is to the threat of regulatory change, with the inclusion of cryptocurrencies into next month’s EU gathering a discussion rather than a full blow review and delivery of new rules and regulations.
Whether EU finance ministers decide to force the hands of regulators to deliver EU-centric rules and regs, rather than wait on for the G20 unified regulations remains to be seen, but if the timing of the G20 is anything to go by, it’s going to take some time for a full review, roll out and enforcement.
For Bitcoin and the broader market, the roll out of rules and regulations for the cryptomarket remains key to a bottoming out, which would support the respective cryptocurrencies to begin finding direction on merit rather than move broadly aligned.
Get Into Cryptocurrency Trading Today
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 0.09% to $6,979.5, with moves through the early morning seeing Bitcoin pullback to a morning low $6,927.1 before recovering, a morning high $6,986.1 coming at the start of the day, falling short of the day’s first major resistance level at $7,096.3.
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USD/CAD Rebounds From Channel Support as Canada GDP Disappoints
CANADIAN DOLLAR TALKING POINTS
USD/CAD trades on a firmer footing as Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report disappoints, and current price action warns of a larger recovery in the exchange rate as it snaps the bearish series carried over from the previous week.
The Canadian dollar struggles to hold its ground as the economy expands 2.9% in the second-quarter of 2018 versus projections for a 3.1% print, and the lackluster data print does little to sway the monetary policy outlook as the Bank of Canada (BoC) pledges to ‘take a gradual approach, guided by incoming data.’
Keep in mind, the BoC appears to be on track to further embark on its hiking-cycle as the ‘Governing Council expects that higher interest rates will be warranted to keep inflation near target,’ but fresh remarks from Governor Stephen Poloz suggest the central bank will stick to its current path of delivering two 25bp rate hikes per year as the pickup in price growth is largely drive by ‘transitory factors.’ In turn, the BoC may merely attempt to buy more time at the next meeting on September 5, and the central bank may ultimately tame bets for an imminent rate-hike as ‘household spending is being dampened by higher interest rates and tighter mortgage lending guidelines.’
Nevertheless, there appears to be a broader shift in USD/CAD behavior as the exchange rate continues to track the downward trend carried from June, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlighting a similar dynamic as the oscillator snaps the bullish formation from earlier this year. However, recent price action warns of a larger rebound as dollar-loonie bounces back from channel support and snaps the series of lower highs & lows carried over from the previous week.
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nitial thoughts - think the inversion of the curve in Canada is not helping
Obviously oil has been helping the loonie to date
I need to do some more research really

Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 03/09/18
It’s a bad start to the week as investors lock in profits from the previous week, holding on to key levels needed to support an afternoon rebound.
Bitcoin Cash Sees Red
Bitcoin Cash rallied by 5.33% on Sunday, following on from Saturday’s 14.1% surge, to end the week up 24.4%.
Bucking the trend across the broader market, Bitcoin Cash rallied through to an early morning intraday high $660.7, the morning move seeing Bitcoin Cash break through the first major resistance level $654.4 before easing back to a relatively range bound afternoon, Bitcoin Cash managing to hold on to the early gains in spite of losses elsewhere across the cryptomarket.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin Cash was down 1.93% to $639.1, with Bitcoin Cash pulling back from a start of a day morning high $657.2 to a morning low $629.2 before steadying, the moves through the early part of the day leaving the major support and resistance levels untested.
For the day ahead, holding above $638.5 would support a run back through the morning high $657.2 to bring $660 levels and the day’s first major support level at $674.07 into play, though sentiment across the broader market will need to materially improve to support a run at $670 levels.
Failure to hold above $638.5 could see Bitcoin Cash slide back through the morning low $629.2 to bring the day’s first major support level at $616.37 into play, while sub-$600 support levels will unlikely be tested through the day, barring materially negative news hitting the news wires.
Litecoin Feeling the Monday Blues
Litecoin slipped by 0.36% on Sunday, following Saturday’s 6.95% rally, to end the week up 16% to $66.23.
An early morning rally saw Litecoin recover from an early dip to an intraday high $66.85 before hitting reverse to a late morning intraday low $64.1, the moves through the day leaving the major support and resistance levels untested.
Support through the afternoon limited Litecoin’s losses for the day, with Litecoin moving back through to $66 levels by the day’s end.
At the time of writing, Litecoin was down 1.3% to $65.37, with Litecoin tracking the broader market through the early hours, pulling back from a start of a day high $66.51 to a morning low $64.85 before moving back through to $65 levels.
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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Trade Disputes, RBA Decisions, Domestic Data Main Price Drivers

This week, the emphasis will once again be on the U.S. Dollar and its function as a safe-haven asset. The Aussie and Kiwi could face extended selling pressure if the greenback is supported by trade dispute jitters or robust U.S. economic data. Additional trade volatility could be provided by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate and monetary policy decision as well as fresh data on Australian GDP and Trade Balance.
The Australian and New Zealand Dollars posted a two-sided trade last week, rallying early after the announcement of a new trade deal between the United States and Mexico drove investors out of the safe-haven U.S. Dollar, then plunging late in the week on concerns over a possible escalation of the trade dispute between the U.S. and China.
Last week, the AUD/USD settled at .7193, down 0.0134 or -1.83% and the NZD/USD closed at .6620, down 0.0070 or -1.05%.
There was economic data last week from Australia, New Zealand and the United States, but the primary focus for investors was on trade issues. As far as the economic data is concerned, there were no significant major events to change the central bank or interest rate outlook. The Fed is still hawkish and likely to raise rates at least 2 more times in 2018, and the Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand are still dovish.
The widening interest rate differential is what’s driving the long-term downtrends in the AUD/USD and NZD/USD. The trade news is driving the volatility.
Short-term, the Forex pairs are being primarily influenced by fresh trade news.
On factor that drove the action late in the week was the news that the United States and Canada ended their trade talks without a deal. Although there was some upside retracement after the U.S. said talks would resume with Canada next week, traders feel that given the downside momentum throughout the session, the currencies should continue to trade weaker on Monday.
The main driver of the selling pressure, however, late in the week was the possibility that new tariffs by the United States against China would be announced as early as this week.
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USD/JPY Initiates Bearish Sequence Amid Failed Run at August-High
JAPANESE YEN TALKING POINTS
The recent rebound in USD/JPY unravels following the failed attempt to test the monthly-high (112.15), but fresh data prints coming out of the U.S. economy may prop up the exchange rate as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are projected to increase another 191K in August.
Signs of a more robust labor market should keep the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on track to further normalize monetary policy as the central bank largely achieves its dual mandate for full-employment and price stability, and Fed officials may ultimately prepare U.S. households and businesses for four rate-hikes in 2018 as the updates are also anticipated to show Average Hourly Earnings climbing to 2.8% from 2.7% in July.
Keep in mind, Fed Fund Futures continue to reflect expectations for higher borrowing-costs, with market participants gearing up for a move in September and December, and a batch of positive developments may heighten the appeal of the U.S. dollar as it puts pressure on the FOMC to extend the hiking-cycle.
However, a set of lackluster data prints may drag on the greenback as Chairman Jerome Powell talks down the risk for above-target inflation, and central bank officials may continue to project a longer-run Fed Funds rate of 2.75% to 3.00% as ‘‘there does not seem to be an elevated risk of overheating.’ Until then, USD/JPY may continue to give back the advance from the August-low (109.77) following the failed attempt to test the monthly-high (112.15), with the exchange rate at risk of exhibiting a more bearish behavior over the coming days as it starts to carve a series of lower highs & lows.
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Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Weekly Chart Strengthens Over $1220.10, Weakens Under $1207.10
Based on last week’s close at $1206.70, the direction of the December Comex Gold market this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the long-term uptrending Gann angle at $1207.10.
December Comex. Gold futures finished lower last week while consolidating for a second week inside the $1221.40 to $1167.10 range from the week-ending August 17. The price action was primarily driven by the direction of the U.S. Dollar. However, more importantly, hedge funds and money managers reduced their net short positions for the first time in a month. This may be an early sign of a bottom.
Weekly Technical Analysis
The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. A trade through $1167.10 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. This could lead to a test of the December 16, 2016 main bottom at $1162.00.
The market is in no position to change the main trend to up. The same goes for the minor trend, which is also down. However, taking out $1221.40 could have the same effect as a breakout to the upside because this high has limited gains the last two weeks. The current inside trading weeks tend to indicate investor indecision and impending volatility.
The first major upside target area is a long-term retracement zone at $1250.60 to $1277.70.
Weekly Technical Forecast
Based on last week’s close at $1206.70, the direction of the December Comex Gold market this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the long-term uptrending Gann angle at $1207.10.
A sustained move over $1207.10 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the steep downtrending Gann angle at $1220.10. This angle, moving down $4.00 per week from the $1388.10 main top the week-ending April 13, has been guiding gold prices lower for 21 weeks.
We could see a technical bounce on the first test of $1220.10, but if it’s taken out, we could see an acceleration to the upside with $1250.60 the next likely target. This is the trigger point for another acceleration into $1277.70. This price is 50% of the long-term range.
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US Dollar Rallying to Start September as August’s Concerns Carry Over.
Talking Points:
– Emerging market currencies remain under a significant amount of presure, with both the Argentinian Peso and the Turkish Lira extending their losing streaks.
– Talks between Canada and the US over the NAFTA negotiations are ongoing but making little progress; meanwhile, US President Trump may be close to announcing the implementation of $200 billion of tariffs on Chinese goods.
The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) is starting off September on positive footing, rising to its highest level since August 24 in the process. Even as the calendar has flipped into the final month of the quarter, many of the old concerns that have influenced price action remains as the key drivers: trade wars emanating from the United States; contagion among emerging market economies; and geopolitical tensions surrounding Syria.
With respect to trade wars, the start of September already has two significant developments to watch for. In terms of the NAFTA negotiations, it’s been reported that Canada and the US are making little progress, and that US President Trump is likely to move forward in presenting Congress with the Mexico-only version of the trade deal.
The goodwill that we saw built into the Canadian Dollar in the first few weeks of August was all but eliminated at the end of the month, and USD/CAD is now positioned in a manner to suggest the move below 1.2950 was a false breakdown attempt. As such, the recent pullback from the yearly highs may be viewed as a consolidation period before a continuation effort; a move through the late-August swing highs near 1.3175 would be revealing.
Elsewhere on the trade war front, it appears that US President Trump is on the verge of implementing another $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods later this week. USD/CNH is trading back higher through 6.85 again, but the fireworks for global market participants would really begin if USD/CNH eclipsed 7.00.
Meanwhile, the beginning of September is also seeing the continuation of contagion spread through emerging market economies. The Turkish Lira meltdown at the start of August dragged all emerging market economies with high external debt-to-GDP ratios, high inflation, and large current account deficits (as a percentage of GDP) into the firing line, and the ramifications are still being felt by EM currencies like the Argentinian Peso and the South African Rand today.
In an environment where much of the external debt held by emerging market economies is denominated in currencies whose central banks are raising rates, we’re facing down a ticking time bomb in terms of economic pain in emerging markets. This crisis will fester and linger; it’s very unlikely issues hurting EMs getting better before getting much, much worse.
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