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  • #22,861
  • Aug 25, 2018 8:36am Aug 25, 2018 8:36am
Quoting BlueCirrus
{quote} Lol...Yes, that's why I chart every possibility I think of - so it won't be too much of a surprise when it starts to move that direction. Our levels are pretty much the same, but I use the word "norm" to always refer to a projection leg mid (1.1026 in the case of the sequence shown above). And I refer to 1.1446 as "halfback", which of course, is mid of the entire move. The market reacts to both of those levels, but in my observation, much more reliably to the P.L. norm.....and I look at 225 more so as the final destination instead of 200...
when it went to 2550, it made 1447 the norma retrace.. at 1300 puts a light norm 192x.. with 1.2 very close. 1.2001 is last years close.. now I have this possible ihs with a 194x target.. and norm at 192x ... within striking distance of a 1.2 test .. dec 31 ends the year. last year close higher.. using 1.2 at the net.. i could target 1.27xx if it turned bullish. to me this 1678 area is important atm..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #22,862
  • Aug 25, 2018 8:50am Aug 25, 2018 8:50am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} when it went to 2550, it made 1447 the norma retrace.. at 1300 puts a light norm 192x.. with 1.2 very close. 1.2001 is last years close.. now I have this possible ihs with a 194x target.. and norm at 192x ... within striking distance of a 1.2 test .. dec 31 ends the year. last year close higher.. using 1.2 at the net.. i could target 1.27xx if it turned bullish. to me this 1678 area is important atm.. {image}
using usd 1.27 is likely 2013 numbers and eu 1.29xx.. whatever happens here 1678/1850.. could still turn it back to 1..11 and less.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #22,863
  • Aug 25, 2018 10:39am Aug 25, 2018 10:39am
1.16432 is the lowest monthly close for the last 13 months...

2.618 * 135.6 pips (this month minimal retracement) = 355.0 pips

1.13002 + 0.03550 = 1.16552

So the battle for this month close is the 1.16432 - 1.16552 area, closing above or below ...


For the last 365 days, 1.25554 - 1.13002 = 1255.2 pips movement, respectively 456.7 pips minimal retracement ...

1.13002 + 0.04567 (the last 365 days minimal retracement) = 1.17569

Most likely the 1.17569 level will be reached before any drop below 1.13002 if any ...
I am who I am
  • #22,864
  • Aug 25, 2018 10:44am Aug 25, 2018 10:44am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} when it went to 2550, it made 1447 the norma retrace.. at 1300 puts a light norm 192x.. with 1.2 very close. 1.2001 is last years close.. now I have this possible ihs with a 194x target.. and norm at 192x ... within striking distance of a 1.2 test .. dec 31 ends the year. last year close higher.. using 1.2 at the net.. i could target 1.27xx if it turned bullish. to me this 1678 area is important atm.. {image}
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} using usd 1.27 is likely 2013 numbers and eu 1.29xx.. whatever happens here 1678/1850.. could still turn it back to 1..11 and less.
We're looking at virtually the same numbers, but using a only a slightly different way of "divining the tea leaves". Always track the mids - even use an indy to track that continuously for me on the intraday charts. I'm using mostly the way referred to in the PM's we exchanged on May, 22, 2013, the one where you expressed concern about me providing the answers at the back of the book.....Well, Hatch and a couple of others are the only ones that I've noticed that seemed to get any of it....(just think "Cloggie")...lol

Speaking of 1446-7, 1.14447 is the LM of this of this current baby bull, but I would like to see a close above 1.1628 1st.

Here's yet another one that I track....

Have a good weekend...C-YA!
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  • #22,865
  • Aug 25, 2018 11:20am Aug 25, 2018 11:20am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} when it went to 2550, it made 1447 the norma retrace.. at 1300 puts a light norm 192x.. with 1.2 very close. 1.2001 is last years close.. now I have this possible ihs with a 194x target.. and norm at 192x ... within striking distance of a 1.2 test .. dec 31 ends the year. last year close higher.. using 1.2 at the net.. i could target 1.27xx if it turned bullish. to me this 1678 area is important atm.. {image}
Call me stubborn ,,Gator.. your chart looks like inverse head and shoulder... I would like to say Euro will definitely go up but I don't.. since H & S never played in my favor this year.. it always turned to be fake out ... I got burned a couple of times, I am not sure this one will play out either... the reason for my doubt is seeing institutions are bearish on Euro 2nd consecutive week... also the Euro day chart is getting extended...so I will be very cautions to be long...
I maybe wrong, since all you good traders here are calling EU going up, my system says it going up.. the twitters I follow basically all saying EU going up...
  • #22,866
  • Aug 25, 2018 11:39am Aug 25, 2018 11:39am
944 - 1026 is still my "preferred" sequence, with 1678 - 1163 wrapped up in it.......

The "boyz" may want to accumulate a few more shorts at better prices before taking it home

Gator's LC analysis will usually shine the light.
  • #22,867
  • Aug 25, 2018 11:59am Aug 25, 2018 11:59am
Thanks Boulder....I used to get the COT (used it for the S&P futures) snail mailed to me back in the day (late nineties), and the institutions would run the market a mile in the wrong direction before eventually turning back in the direction that their positioning indicated...lol

The boyz are masters at that stuff...Lol
  • #22,868
  • Aug 25, 2018 12:18pm Aug 25, 2018 12:18pm
Quoting BlueCirrus
Thanks Boulder....I used to get the COT (used it for the S&P futures) snail mailed to me back in the day (late nineties), and the institutions would run the market a mile in the wrong direction before eventually turning back in the direction that their positioning indicated...lol The boyz are masters at that stuff...Lol
shortly I may explain why that happens...
  • #22,869
  • Edited 12:48pm Aug 25, 2018 12:21pm | Edited 12:48pm
How Institutions Position Themselves In Euro/Usd This Week

This week, institutions stayed net shorted Euro for 2 consecutive weeks , which was shown in the latest COT as of Tuesday, Aug 21, 2018.

The institutions net short Euro positions increased last week by 3,052 contracts to negative 4,841 contracts,
479 long positions were added, and 3,531 short positions were added as well . Now Longs total 188,907 contracts vs shorts total 193,748 contracts .

49% long exposure vs 51% short exposure, which 1% decreased in longs and 1% increased in shorts from the previous week

Last week, Euro started at 1.1343, hit bottom at 1.1301,started to rally, it has gone up 7 of 8 sessions so far since last COT

The daily chart looks extended, and weekly chart comes to test weekly supply zone 1.1655 to 1.1850 , where sellers will be active in this area

In spite of Euro the recent moving up, I see institutions are lack of buying interest, which indicates they are preparing Euro to move lower .

Institutions Sentiment: Bearish

Please note institutions take weeks and months to build a position in the currency market. For Euro, they have started to build their net short positions since 8/14/2018.
Therefore, the bearish sentiment is more for a long term outlook, not intended for short term trading.
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  • #22,870
  • Aug 25, 2018 12:47pm Aug 25, 2018 12:47pm
Quoting BlueCirrus
Thanks Boulder....I used to get the COT (used it for the S&P futures) snail mailed to me back in the day (late nineties), and the institutions would run the market a mile in the wrong direction before eventually turning back in the direction that their positioning indicated...lol The boyz are masters at that stuff...Lol
this may explain from page 53 of the book :The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence..
we know institutions has been net long Euro since 5/7/2017,, which ended on 8/14/2018.. they still hold 49% longs to distribute...
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  • #22,871
  • Aug 25, 2018 12:51pm Aug 25, 2018 12:51pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} this may explain from page 53 of the book :The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence.. we know institutions has been net long Euro since 5/7/2017,, which ended on 8/14/2018.. they still hold 49% longs... {image}
Precisely....Good job!
  • #22,872
  • Aug 25, 2018 1:23pm Aug 25, 2018 1:23pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} this may explain from page 53 of the book :The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence.. we know institutions has been net long Euro since 5/7/2017,, which ended on 8/14/2018.. they still hold 49% longs to distribute... {image}
short the euro to keep (trade differential hedge) profits equal, if they expect dollar to fall is always a option..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #22,873
  • Aug 26, 2018 4:07am Aug 26, 2018 4:07am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Call me stubborn ,,Gator.. your chart looks like inverse head and shoulder... I would like to say Euro will definitely go up but I don't.. since H & S never played in my favor this year.. it always turned to be fake out ... I got burned a couple of times, I am not sure this one will play out either... the reason for my doubt is seeing institutions are bearish on Euro 2nd consecutive week... also the Euro day chart is getting extended...so I will be very cautions to be long... I maybe wrong, since all you good traders here are calling EU...
I'm saying up till 1678... after that I have mixed signals. mixed signals with a possible range.. I will lean bearish with the month close below 1670. But I know I still need pa to close a day below 1321 to continue. Or a day close above 1756 to go higher. The week and higher close on the day. Leads me to believe 1678 will be visited. That don't mean it couldn't drop to the 1589 area before. with 4 days left in the month, 1678 is the fight. A fight to reject bears LL or give in to last years bullish move. Those institutions will follow the money. The forex market is believed to move 4 trillion dollars per day. The month is still open. August candle is still red atm. It has 4 days before closing. Above 1683 would erase the summer. Followed by a day close above 1756,, get out the way.. the same with a month below close 1670 and a day close below 1321
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #22,874
  • Aug 26, 2018 7:10am Aug 26, 2018 7:10am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Call me stubborn ,,Gator.. your chart looks like inverse head and shoulder... I would like to say Euro will definitely go up but I don't.. since H & S never played in my favor this year.. it always turned to be fake out ... I got burned a couple of times, I am not sure this one will play out either... the reason for my doubt is seeing institutions are bearish on Euro 2nd consecutive week... also the Euro day chart is getting extended...so I will be very cautions to be long... I maybe wrong, since all you good traders here are calling EU...
cot is not important boulder... its a lagging report
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #22,875
  • Aug 26, 2018 7:10am Aug 26, 2018 7:10am
Quoting BlueCirrus
Thanks Boulder....I used to get the COT (used it for the S&P futures) snail mailed to me back in the day (late nineties), and the institutions would run the market a mile in the wrong direction before eventually turning back in the direction that their positioning indicated...lol The boyz are masters at that stuff...Lol
they still do
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #22,876
  • Edited 11:46am Aug 26, 2018 9:29am | Edited 11:46am
The distinction between norm and halfback on Cable.............as I use the terms
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Now, strictly speaking, halfback is the normal retrace, and I could label the current place where I have "norm" on the chart: "This is the place where I actually want to enter for a two-to-one upswing targeting 1.29922 and possibly 1.30336, which also happens to be the mid/mofu area of the next larger swing on the daily chart, on this GBPUSD pair".....But I can't put that many characters on my label.
I instead use the term "halfback" (from my profile training) to emphasize the idea that halfback is a weak hands reference that is likely to be revisited and taken out, and I use the term "norm" to mark the area (LM is preferred) where I actually want to trade from.
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Paraphrasing James Dalton, the profile expert: "Institutional money doesn't know where halfback is, and doesn't care, since they cannot get the bulk of their orders filled at such an exact level."
Mr. Dalton is a well known retired hedge fund manager in Chicago, and my observations over the years confirm that he knows what he is talking about.

But the best thing about all of this is....the profile methods fit like a glove with Gator's methods, and the combination of the two is hard to beat.
  • #22,877
  • Aug 26, 2018 4:48pm Aug 26, 2018 4:48pm
Quoting micho
{quote} cot is not important boulder... its a lagging report
Yes institutions take weeks even months to accumulate their positions, but I still like to use COT info to trade alongside the institutions, that I feel more free from the daily events, economic data reactions, Trumps comments etc. and try to ride the wave of market price action with the institutions.. to have a clear understanding of what the big players' intentions , what positions they are really holding. be prepared instead of being confused by the retail data...
  • #22,878
  • Aug 26, 2018 4:52pm Aug 26, 2018 4:52pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Call me stubborn ,,Gator.. your chart looks like inverse head and shoulder... I would like to say Euro will definitely go up but I don't.. since H & S never played in my favor this year.. it always turned to be fake out ... I got burned a couple of times, I am not sure this one will play out either... the reason for my doubt is seeing institutions are bearish on Euro 2nd consecutive week... also the Euro day chart is getting extended...so I will be very cautions to be long... I maybe wrong, since all you good traders here are calling EU...
>stubborn>
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #22,879
  • Aug 26, 2018 4:58pm Aug 26, 2018 4:58pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} >stubborn>
LOL ;;
  • #22,880
  • Aug 26, 2018 5:40pm Aug 26, 2018 5:40pm
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