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Are we all idiots?

  • #81
  • Aug 20, 2018 2:34am Aug 20, 2018 2:34am
Hello Guys,
Everything everybody says is partly true and we should give a benefit of the doubt and wait for the results. 100 trades on M1 should be completed soon. I will make my subscription here and wait for the results and pics to see.
  • #82
  • Aug 20, 2018 3:17am Aug 20, 2018 3:17am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} so i get that you have 50% chance from statistical perspective, but how does behavioral finance factor into all this. surely, the irrational behaviors of market participants at certain times pushes the chances beyond 50% for some setups at a given time window. a game of dice is poor analogy to markets imo. dice game has no feelings, no greed or fear. it just is. pure mathematical outcome. Unless when you say 50/50, you're only talking about setups (i.e entry/exits). But maybe overal market structure is not 50/50 chance. At least that's my...
Thank you for building an argument and a proper tone for debate.

When does a finace behavioral starts and when it ends?
When the irrational one comes in?
When does the "excessive sentiment" appears and how brief are those periods?
Not to mention that prior of all this, you need to create "your own trading world" wich is extremely subjective.

It's all kinda of large scale fractalic illusion IMO

Chart accumulation/consolidation followed by breakouts or spikes, or OB/OS situations followed by ranges, are the fair expression of all momentary market phenomena,
...all, from greed and idiocy to monetary policy actions.
The chart is the "right" sum of ...everything.
And the true dosage of inner market resorts is unpredictable for all.
Therefore, it's all more about guessing... up or down? how high, how dip?

It's not game of dice, it's even poorer, it's a coin game.
An up or down game.

Name one single relevant factor wich it repeates itself often like 60% few years in a row.
Anything, macro economics, political, technical !
True, any dumb idiot knows to buy a rate hike on some green positive data printed ...or a trend line. But if it would be that simple, after few weeks of training, the average Joe would make a fortune having a constant winning rate after creating a personal setup, defined "extreme sentiment", "trading world", whatever subjective stuff, all the same.

But I am affraid this is not it.

I'll stay to my original judgement. No technical edge on long term.
Member
  • #83
  • Aug 20, 2018 3:47am Aug 20, 2018 3:47am
Quoting newbegger
{quote} If you ever studied statistical math, you would get opposing view to 50-50. I actually bet (and lost) my wife's gyno that stats said I had a 44% chance of a boy on my second child so I bet we would have girl. The Gyno said it's 50-50 chance boy or girl. This was before doc's could determine child's gender before birth. Both my children are male. But that does not disprove you can get the edge, just that it does not work every time and 56% chance is not enough to bet the farm. If you think market is 50-50, you will lose all your invested...
Any game who offers 56% chances to win worth "to bet your farm in" ...but this game doesn't
Member
  • #84
  • Edited 4:17am Aug 20, 2018 3:53am | Edited 4:17am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Any game who offers 56% chances to win worth "to bet your farm in" ...but this game doesn't

all retail forex traders are idiots.end of discussion. Here is the truth. I wasted my life ,listening to forex idiots. You buy eur usd , it hardly moves more than than 30 pips , dax moves within minutes and daily 150 appx. Wasting time.

Now I told you the truth , you can all have me banned.I can live with the truth, you can't.


Are we all idiots .Yes!
Indices offers a a 67% to 33 % edge.
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  • #85
  • Aug 20, 2018 4:19am Aug 20, 2018 4:19am
Quoting loozers
{quote} all retail forex traders are idiots.end of discussion. Here is the truth. I wasted my life ,listening to forex idiots. You buy eur usd , it hardly moves more than than 30 pips , dax moves within minutes and daily 150 appx. Wasting time. Now I told you the truth , you can all have me banned.I can live with the truth, you can't. Are we all idiots .Yes! Indices offers a a 67% to 33 % edge. {image}

Cheery picking
  • #86
  • Aug 20, 2018 4:23am Aug 20, 2018 4:23am
Quoting loozers
{quote} all retail forex traders are idiots.end of discussion. Here is the truth. I wasted my life ,listening to forex idiots. You buy eur usd , it hardly moves more than than 30 pips , dax moves within minutes and daily 150 appx. Wasting time. Now I told you the truth , you can all have me banned.I can live with the truth, you can't. Are we all idiots .Yes! Indices offers a a 67% to 33 % edge. {image}
Of course stocks and indices have edges.
Because they are all supposed to grow ...until they crash

Bank deposits, private pension funds, Black Jack... are also another kind of games different than FX and coin tossing
Member
  • #87
  • Aug 20, 2018 4:29am Aug 20, 2018 4:29am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Of course stocks and indices have edges. Because they are all supposed to grow ...until they crash
Depends on whether you are a stock indices idiot or a professional trader.

I trade forex ,not like retail idiots,but like real professional currency traders.
  • #88
  • Aug 20, 2018 4:33am Aug 20, 2018 4:33am
Quoting loozers
{quote} Depends on whether you are a stock indices idiot or a professional trader. I trade forex ,not like idiots,but like real currency traders.
Oh, so you're a pro, excuse me! You're among that glorious 5%, Geeee, sorry
Member
  • #89
  • Aug 20, 2018 4:38am Aug 20, 2018 4:38am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Oh, so you're a pro, excuse me! You're among that glorious 5%, Geeee, sorry
I have an idiot@ in my head , so I am only doing it for beer money.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=809399

75 robots expert advisors made into a consistent EA
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=802780

The idiot in my head is making me do reactive trades ,like this guy throwing punches. I throw punches at the market.

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  • #90
  • Aug 20, 2018 9:06am Aug 20, 2018 9:06am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Thank you for building an argument and a proper tone for debate. When does a finace behavioral starts and when it ends? When the irrational one comes in? When does the "excessive sentiment" appears and how brief are those periods? Not to mention that prior of all this, you need to create "your own trading world" wich is extremely subjective. It's all kinda of large scale fractalic illusion IMO Chart accumulation/consolidation followed by breakouts or spikes, or OB/OS situations followed by ranges, are the fair expression of all momentary...
yes i agree, it is actually worse from the get go compared to game of dice with spreads/comms

I guess if you're looking at it from 100% mechanical approach. either 1 or 0, 100% of the time, then you're right; the game is more or less a guess. i don't think a pure 100% mechanical strategy has ever survived. I'm in the school of thought that trading requires a touch of subjective execution.

But then this leads to question, when is subjective approach to the market is appropriate without dismantling your original strategy? How do you separate good subjective execution and outright breaking the rules from lack of discipline or from tilt?

this is the part of trading that you cannot teach. it's one of the those 4th dimension aspect of your trading rules that develops itself from experience. It's similar to developing your poker reads over time. You need to know your "opponent" ranges and their tells as you play the game. It's not always right and the rules are never static for every opponent/session, but you NEED it to actually separate yourself from the amateurs.
  • #91
  • Aug 20, 2018 9:29am Aug 20, 2018 9:29am
The market is a device for transferring money fro impatient to the patient.

Take a moment and find the group you belong to.
  • #92
  • Aug 20, 2018 9:54am Aug 20, 2018 9:54am
Quoting zamile
The market is a device for transferring money fro impatient to the patient. Take a moment and find the group you belong to.

The idiots are being educated/trained to become impatient and taught charlatan education, by the merchant's men, so they do it of their own free will.Forex is rigged.
  • #93
  • Aug 20, 2018 10:06am Aug 20, 2018 10:06am
A power outage occurred last night, luckily my TP was hit.
As I don't use any hard stop on the demo.
  • #94
  • Aug 20, 2018 11:12am Aug 20, 2018 11:12am
Quoting loozers
{quote} The idiots are being educated/trained to become impatient and taught charlatan education, by the merchant's men, so they do it of their own free will.Forex is rigged.
not really my friend the problem people dont want to learn they always have that edge to be on a trade even if the conditions are not favorable. my advise be on the sidelines until you have every reason to take a trade. what good is it to be on the noise of m5 to m30 taking 15 positive trades in one day only to have 1 negative that takes all your days work.

most of us search internet and find one strategythat everyone seem to like and we try it and get one to four good trades, get excited and one bad trade disappoints and we conclude that the strategy is lacking something and we go straight to google . find another. did you prove that it is not working, a BIG NO

NB. learn to accept losses that its part of the game.
change the heading of this thread and be positive in your thinking. there is hope
No person is an idiot.
  • #95
  • Aug 20, 2018 11:31am Aug 20, 2018 11:31am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} yes i agree, it is actually worse from the get go compared to game of dice with spreads/comms I guess if you're looking at it from 100% mechanical approach. either 1 or 0, 100% of the time, then you're right; the game is more or less a guess. i don't think a pure 100% mechanical strategy has ever survived. I'm in the school of thought that trading requires a touch of subjective execution. But then this leads to question, when is subjective approach to the market is appropriate without dismantling your original strategy? How do you separate...
Exactly.
Well, I build what I like to call reasonable setups based on simple classical S/R levels.
The rest is pure experience. I mean I really can't tell how I make trading decisions.
That's right, I can't teach nobody, I can't even explain hindsight why I did this or that... that's why I guess technically, I can be called a fkn addicted gambler, ...an idiot playing on guts.

The only sht which might possibly make a difference is the slow account rise, about 14% monthly, as a mean of the last 2 years (with variations like +45% ...or -10% if a bad luck month)
Mediocre, while we can see TEs on FF guys who can make +2,000% in a month! ...but who the fck knows if they can hold on long term with their martingale fashion
Member
  • #96
  • Edited 12:19pm Aug 20, 2018 11:59am | Edited 12:19pm
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Exactly. Well, I build what I like to call reasonable setups based on simple classical S/R levels. The rest is pure experience. I mean I really can't tell how I make trading decisions. That's right, I can't teach nobody, I can't even explain hindsight why I did this or that... that's why I guess technically, I can be called a fkn addicted gambler, ...an idiot playing on guts. The only sht which might possibly make a difference is the slow account rise, about 14% monthly, as a mean of the last 2 years (with variations like +45% ...or -10%...
More simple explanation is imposible.
The problem of all of us here is: That we are gathered here as in a schhool all childrens from 1-st class up to doctor, and we try to understand ech other, but all from different edges and different profesions (i say different profesions because from 1 way to another way of trading in between is 1college).
My advice to youngest is to: Stay aside read and follow and collect see what works what not, and these try to get expertice in 1 pair because reasons wich move 1 pair compared to another 1one are totally different.... good luck
  • #97
  • Aug 20, 2018 12:26pm Aug 20, 2018 12:26pm
Quoting mizi123
{quote} More simple explanation is imposible. The problem of all of us here is: That we are gathered here as in a schhool all childrens from 1-st class up to doctor, and we try to understand ech other, but all from different edges and different profesions (i say different profesions because from 1 way to another way of trading in between is 1college). My advice to youngest is to: Stay aside read and follow and collect see what works what not, and these try to get expertice in 1 pair because reasons wich move 1 pair compared to another 1one are totally...
i blame our school system for us failing as traders. we are taught information. either right or wrong..and always SHOW YOUR WORK..

well shit..sometimes i can't show my work..but i know i'm right lol
  • #98
  • Aug 20, 2018 12:31pm Aug 20, 2018 12:31pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} i blame our school system for us failing as traders. we are taught information. either right or wrong..and always SHOW YOUR WORK.. well shit..sometimes i can't show my work..but i know i'm right lol
That is a scill in itself my friend, but as soon as you make money SHOW-ing (explaining) is second one
  • #99
  • Aug 20, 2018 5:08pm Aug 20, 2018 5:08pm
Quoting AmmaBoss
A power outage occurred last night, luckily my TP was hit. As I don't use any hard stop on the demo.
Thats got to be stressful, but trading without a stop at all is madness.

I was looking at your stats, you're out of the trade on average 8 minutes. I bet I could offer a piece of advice that will double your current progress immediately.

at 1 min bars, you should definitely take no more than 2-3 pips. with a say 12 pip stop. your conversion rate will increase exponentially.

but dont trade outside the US and EU sessions.
  • #100
  • Aug 20, 2018 6:00pm Aug 20, 2018 6:00pm
Quoting richyRich27
{quote} Thats got to be stressful, but trading without a stop at all is madness. I was looking at your stats, you're out of the trade on average 8 minutes. I bet I could offer a piece of advice that will double your current progress immediately. at 1 min bars, you should definitely take no more than 2-3 pips. with a say 12 pip stop. your conversion rate will increase exponentially. but dont trade outside the US and EU sessions.
I agreed but then I would not be following my system , actually intend to scale it up to the 5 - 15 min chart which would reduce the commission by ALOT.
Basically just using the 1 min chart because if I can stay in the green with all the noise , extreme commission , bad entry due to not quick enough reaction etc than I'm pretty sure I can make profit from the higher time-frame atleast that's my reasoning.
It also me to get a decent sample size quickly.
also , does anyone else experience alot less noise on indices compare to currency?
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