A simple question difficult to answer with (consistency) | Forex Factory

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A simple question difficult to answer with (consistency)

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 19, 2018 9:34pm Aug 19, 2018 9:34pm
If you're an intraday trader, whether you use fundamentals or technicals and whether you're looking to trade trend or range next day, please tell how you decide which pair(s) to trade next day.

The directional bias does not matter. It also does not matter if you're seeking to identify a trend or range for next day. The only thing that matters is that you're able to identify whichever type of market it will be next day, consistently.

Thank you in advance and I hope all of us in this Puzzle Factory can put our heads together and answer this tricky ultimate question.
  • #2
  • Aug 20, 2018 12:28am Aug 20, 2018 12:28am
I watch the same 30 instruments everyday. M1-H4-D1 and trade whenever i see an entry.
Necessity knows no law except to conquer
  • #3
  • Aug 20, 2018 1:39am Aug 20, 2018 1:39am
This thread sadly was moved from Discussions to Rookie Talk therefore it's not likely to receive the views or attention of other traders.

And for what reason or benefit to ForexFactory was it shutdown to Rookie Talk? No reason whatsoever, just only obstruction to progress.

The question of this thread sounds simple but does anyone really have a consistent answer to it? Again, this is hardly a Rookie Talk topic and it is sad that the moderators didn't have the insight to recognize the importance of this topic that needs to be studied.

It is comical that a thread titled "Are we all idiots?" remains in Discussions while a legitimate technical question is moved to Rookie Talk.
  • #4
  • Aug 20, 2018 1:43am Aug 20, 2018 1:43am
Agreed.
Necessity knows no law except to conquer
  • #5
  • Aug 20, 2018 1:50am Aug 20, 2018 1:50am
Quoting 3ndlessHope
Agreed.
I've written to Forex Factory but I doubt they'll move it back to Discussions in order for other traders to weigh in on this topic.

The person who is moving threads around in here is either an imbecile or is purposefully trying to prevent the ultimate holy grail question to be answered or made progress towards.

Imagine, if you can figure out with consistency whether a pair is going to choppy-range or trend next day then you could use almost any strategy for making entries and exits and be profitable.
  • #6
  • Aug 20, 2018 1:53am Aug 20, 2018 1:53am
There is no holy grail question and the only way to predict which instrument will move is looking at the news dude.
Necessity knows no law except to conquer
  • #7
  • Aug 20, 2018 1:55am Aug 20, 2018 1:55am
For example, when I write identifying a trend next day, I'm not talking about identifying a perfectly beautiful trend. I'm only meaning identifying a sufficient move in either direction. Again, with consistency, and that means every day or 100% of the time.

For example, this sufficient move is what I would consider a good enough trend next day.
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  • #8
  • Aug 20, 2018 1:58am Aug 20, 2018 1:58am
Quoting 3ndlessHope
There is no holy grail question and the only way to predict which instrument will move is looking at the news dude.
Yeah but the problem with high-impact releases is, it's even more so more difficult to determine whether it would be a choppy-range or trend news day.
  • #9
  • Aug 20, 2018 2:01am Aug 20, 2018 2:01am
Sorry to say, this rightly belongs in the rookie section. If you’re still not clear about what pairs to trade then my advice is switch to demo.

Put simply, you should trade those pairs that you have meticulously backtested your trading strategy on, and have found to be profitable overall.

if you have not backtested a strategy, or do not have a strategy, then how can you have confidence that your trade will have a positive chance of success? And how can you know when and how much capital to deploy to manage your risk?

No strategy will have the same results for different pairs. Your backtesting will determine which pair to trade.
  • #10
  • Aug 20, 2018 2:04am Aug 20, 2018 2:04am
Quoting Forex-Jedi
Sorry to say, this rightly belongs in the rookie section. If you’re still not clear about what pairs to trade then my advice is switch to demo. Put simply, you should trade those pairs that you have meticulously backtested your trading strategy on, and have found to be profitable overall. if you have not backtested a strategy, or do not have a strategy, then how can you have confidence that your trade will have a positive chance of success? And how can you know when and how much capital to deploy to manage your risk? No strategy will have the same...
But you're mistaken. You're making the assumption that I'm clueless and in addition to this topic moving to the Rookie Talk, I should also move from Live to Demo, because of how simple the question sounds. I'm not sure how many times I should boldface the word consistently (e.g. everyday, 100%, etc.) but unless you have an answer to this question (a consistent answer, e.g. everyday, 100%, etc.) then what are you talking about?

Are you telling me that you can determine consistently 100% of the time whether next day intraday is going to be a choppy-range or trend? If so, you're already a millionaire but don't know it.
  • #11
  • Aug 20, 2018 7:42am Aug 20, 2018 7:42am
Sometimes its involve emotion as well. Today I'm not in right mind causes wrong decisions ..
  • #12
  • Aug 20, 2018 8:29am Aug 20, 2018 8:29am
Quoting csubbra
Sometimes its involve emotion as well. Today I'm not in right mind causes wrong decisions ..
Thanks for the feedback but I'm definitely looking for well-defined process in selecting pairs. Here's a great quote: "If you can't describe what you are doing as a process then you don't know what you're doing." W. Edwards Deming
  • #13
  • Aug 20, 2018 10:29am Aug 20, 2018 10:29am
Quoting Protector
If you're an intraday trader, whether you use fundamentals or technicals and whether you're looking to trade trend or range next day, please tell how you decide which pair(s) to trade next day. The directional bias does not matter. It also does not matter if you're seeking to identify a trend or range for next day. The only thing that matters is that you're able to identify whichever type of market it will be next day, consistently. Thank you in advance and I hope all of us in this Puzzle Factory can put our heads together and answer this tricky...
Hi Protector.
I do not have this problem because I only trade one pair and only the same pair.

In a basic and simple way, people usually look (or should look) for pairs that are in range, because sooner or later there will be a movement and so they can trade the breakout or the pullback if occurs.

Attached Image


Good luck
POW!
  • #14
  • Aug 20, 2018 10:49am Aug 20, 2018 10:49am
Quoting Protector
This thread sadly was moved from Discussions to Rookie Talk therefore it's not likely to receive the views or attention of other trader.... It is comical that a thread titled "Are we all idiots?" remains in Discussions while a legitimate technical question is moved to Rookie Talk.
While I am hardly a fan of the way FF moves certain threads, I think the blame for this move falls on you. With the words "Holy Grail" in the title, there is a perceived lack of knowledge most often associated with new, or rookie, traders.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #15
  • Aug 20, 2018 5:26pm Aug 20, 2018 5:26pm
Quoting fxprimate
{quote} Hi Protector. I do not have this problem because I only trade one pair and only the same pair. In a basic and simple way, people usually look (or should look) for pairs that are in range, because sooner or later there will be a movement and so they can trade the breakout or the pullback if occurs. {image} Good luck
Which pair is the only one you're trading? You're trading range, trend, or it doesn't matter? On those pullbacks, please tell how you're sure that it's on a trend continuation and not chopping-ranging.
  • #16
  • Aug 20, 2018 5:28pm Aug 20, 2018 5:28pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} While I am hardly a fan of the way FF moves certain threads, I think the blame for this move falls on you. With the words "Holy Grail" in the title, there is a perceived lack of knowledge most often associated with new, or rookie, traders.
I changed the title and the thread is now back in Discussions. So it'll be good to get viewed more by others and with others weighing in on this, all of our heads put together, we'll hopefully find a method to consistently identify good enough trend next day on some pair.
  • #17
  • Aug 20, 2018 5:40pm Aug 20, 2018 5:40pm
Quoting Protector
{quote} Which pair is the only one you're trading? You're trading range, trend, or it doesn't matter? On those pullbacks, please tell how you're sure that it's on a trend continuation and not chopping-ranging.
Hey friend, you also want my phone number?


"The only thing that matters is that you're able to identify whichever type of market it will be next day, consistently."

I gave you a hint (how identify one important phase of the market) of one of the simplest visualizations that you can see in the charts on several pairs evry day ... just detect it and perfect it ... donīt need to know how I trade.

Cheers
POW!
  • #18
  • Aug 20, 2018 5:51pm Aug 20, 2018 5:51pm
Quoting fxprimate
{quote} Hey friend, you also want my phone number? "The only thing that matters is that you're able to identify whichever type of market it will be next day, consistently." I gave you a hint (how identify one important phase of the market) of one of the simplest visualizations that you can see in the charts on several pairs evry day ... just detect it and perfect it ... donīt need to know how I trade. Cheers
Oooookay I was just trying to see what else I could shake you down for hahaha I'm kidding. Yes, you're correct in that price will very likely trend on a lower time frame such as M15 after 1, 2, or especially 3 full days of sideways action. I've studied that and although it is sensible, for some reason it wasn't good enough at the time and I moved on.

One shortcoming with that method by itself only is that one isn't able to determine how many days of sideways action it would take before price would trend. Would it be 1 day, 2 days, or 3 days...? Perhaps someone could only consider pairs that have been ranging for 3 days but again, it wouldn't be considered consistent because it's also likely that it may take an additional 4th day of ranging sideways before trending.

In any case, it's ambiguous.
  • #19
  • Aug 20, 2018 7:52pm Aug 20, 2018 7:52pm
Quoting Protector
{quote} ... Yes, you're correct in that price will very likely trend on a lower time frame such as M15 after 1, 2, or especially 3 full days of sideways action. I've studied that and although it is sensible, for some reason it wasn't good enough at the time and I moved on. One shortcoming with that method by itself only is that one isn't able to determine how many days of sideways action it would take before price would trend. Would it be 1 day, 2 days, or...
"... 1 day, 2 days, or 3 days ..." I think you do not understood.
Every day you have pairs in range and breakout ... this behavior is consistent ... everyday happens.

Cheers
POW!
  • #20
  • Aug 20, 2018 8:05pm Aug 20, 2018 8:05pm
Quoting fxprimate
{quote} "... 1 day, 2 days, or 3 days ..." I think you do not understood. Every day you have pairs in range and breakout ... this behavior is consistent ... everyday happens. Cheers
Yes but, let's say you're looking at a pair and it is currently ranging sideways on day 1, you won't be sure if it's going to trend on day 2, or trend on day 3, or trend on day 4. By "consistently," I was meaning you would be able to look at the behavior of day 1, and be able to consistently determine with 100% accuracy each time if day 2 would be: (a) unknown, (b) range, (c) trend. Is this possible? I think yes. So let's all put our heads together and figure out how... That's the hope of this thread.
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