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Are we all idiots?

  • #61
  • Aug 17, 2018 2:47pm Aug 17, 2018 2:47pm
Quoting loozers
{quote} I m trying to get refunds from Michael Covel when 80 % of trends breakouts fail https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38Y-tl0EyMY
Breakouts fail because by definition they have to be broken out of a range i.e. from the edges of the containment of price, which are perfect setups for fakeout to trick "price action" traders. IMO, Trading breakouts require:

  1. Quick move of SL to BE
  2. Better RR (or 10+ reward to risk)
  3. Trade frequency... multiple attempts as you never know which breakout is a legit move for long term trends

OR

  1. Inverse RR... small TP for quick wins in the direction of fakeouts (I prefer this one but timing is everything with this option to pick good volatile times)

EDIT: To OP, Although not every one is an Idiot in life, There is an IDIOT in every retail trader. End of Discussion because it is a statistical fact :-)

Staying in my lane...
  • #62
  • Aug 17, 2018 3:23pm Aug 17, 2018 3:23pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Breakouts fail because by definition they have to be broken out of a range i.e. from the edges of the containment of price, which are perfect setups for fakeout to trick "price action" traders. IMO, Trading breakouts require: Quick move of SL to BE Better RR (or 10+ reward to risk) Trade frequency... multiple attempts as you never know which breakout is a legit move for long term trends OR Inverse RR... small TP for quick wins in the direction of fakeouts (I prefer this one but timing is everything with this option to pick good volatile...
I'll also add to that and state that I think any popular method is likely to be exploited against your favor, not just breakouts or breakdowns from common price levels.
  • #63
  • Aug 17, 2018 8:40pm Aug 17, 2018 8:40pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Breakouts fail because by definition they have to be broken out of a range i.e. from the edges of the containment of price, which are perfect setups for fakeout to trick "price action" traders. IMO, Trading breakouts require: Quick move of SL to BE Better RR (or 10+ reward to risk) Trade frequency... multiple attempts as you never know which breakout is a legit move for long term trends OR Inverse RR... small TP for quick wins in the direction of fakeouts (I prefer this one but timing is everything with this option to pick good volatile...

You mean the enemy within you.They have been told systems work , they only need a system , they believed it.

They talk about 99 % losing

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=714796

If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
  • #64
  • Aug 17, 2018 9:41pm Aug 17, 2018 9:41pm
Quoting loozers
{quote} You mean the enemy within you.They have been told systems work , they only need a system , they believed it. They talk about 99 % losing https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=714796 If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
There is a ton of idiotic things humans do in life...same applies to Trading as well. In life, you get slapped so hard (by your boss or mom or folks around you who have your best interests in mind). In trading, there is NO ONE to protect your interest but yourself. It's hard and humans in general have a self-destructive mentality. I can fill 20 pages of mistakes I committed year after year after year. Some of them I still do but my automation now prevents and protects my own interest of doing stupid shit to my accounts. Overall, I still blame over 80% of my failures to forums and hopping system over system for the fist five yrs (and his was pre-TE days). The only thing I am proud of is that I did not spend a dime on books or education or software or signals...I got lucky imo
Staying in my lane...
  • #65
  • Aug 18, 2018 12:55am Aug 18, 2018 12:55am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Overall, I still blame over 80% of my failures to forums and hopping system over system for the fist five yrs (and his was pre-TE days). The only thing I am proud of is that I did not spend a dime on books or education or software or signals...I got lucky imo
There are plenty of discussions on internet "trading forums suck" & "trading forums are essentially the blind leading the blind".
  • #66
  • Aug 18, 2018 4:29am Aug 18, 2018 4:29am
Quoting AmmaBoss
Honest I have made so many mistake by refusing to exit trade between now and last night , this really isn't an accurate representation of the edge. The results should get better after some time as I have never traded this way before and continuously second guess myself. I am also trading the 1 min time frame which result in some bad entries as it simply move so fast along with the spread taking a huge part of the profits. The edge apply to all time frame but the one minute would give quick results, while making it impossible to be profitable after...
Try code and backtest it, it will be quicker. I always backtest on a minimum 14 years of tick data. I've seen a strong edge with little drawdown for the first 7 years and for second 7 years it lost half of profits and losing till now. So 100 trades really means nothing.
  • #67
  • Aug 18, 2018 7:42am Aug 18, 2018 7:42am
Quoting loozers
{quote} There are plenty of discussions on internet "trading forums suck" & "trading forums are essentially the blind leading the blind".
any forum is like a tool, it is how you use it that makes it good or bad.
  • #68
  • Aug 18, 2018 1:43pm Aug 18, 2018 1:43pm
Quoting IenDzi
{quote} Try code and backtest it, it will be quicker. I always backtest on a minimum 14 years of tick data. I've seen a strong edge with little drawdown for the first 7 years and for second 7 years it lost half of profits and losing till now. So 100 trades really means nothing.
Can't be coded.
As far as a back-test goes it really depend on the system,
some system need 1000+ trades to determine if there's an edge others need 50.
in order for me to break - even with the spread I would need to have an edge similar to 60-65% win rate with a 1 : 1 RR system ( this stats can be adjusted as the higher than RR the lower the win rate required ).
Therefore if I am in the green after 100 trades , it would most likely be because of an edge , How long will it last Idk but for the moment I just want to determine if I am delusional or not.
  • #69
  • Aug 19, 2018 12:02am Aug 19, 2018 12:02am
Quoting TudorIoan
Yes, we are idiots. At least those who are still enthusiastic about trading technicals. Because it's no possible edge on Technical Analysis in years! Why? Because is plain to see that trading it's just a 50-50% game! Oscillators are showing overbought/sold "exhausting" situations, MAs gives a hint about trends, Pivots about Support/Resistances, ...all tech indies are supposed to create and edge above that common 50%. But they're actually not. You always got 50% chances! True, it takes few thowsands trades and years to realise there's no edge in...
Kudos and thank you for not being another red flag idiot like most out here.

Glad someone else agrees with me that no matter what entry strategy you apply, the outcome is always 50:50 over a long series of trades. There is a reason why I ask for 3yrs of evidence to prove a profitable strategy (to yourself).

Quoting AmmaBoss
Did anyone else feel like an idiot when they finally discover an edge? I literally felt like the world biggest retard when I had my aha moment , Literally 100% of the stuff I learnt were useless. No indicators , NO SR , No Trendline , NO pivots literally nothing. I wouldn't even call it price action trading, It was literally a pattern that occur everyday and took countless hours for me to even notice it. So was anyone else edge so simple , it was almost unbelievable Or am I delusional . NB: I have place a TE to show the live results of my testing....
Kudos on finding your edge so take this with a grain of salt for whatever it is worth. I won't give a shit about anyone saying anything negative about my work and neither should you. My only concern is your approach listed in #1. You MUST test what you will trade live with and don't care about proving yourself to anyone. Your edge on tick/M1 can never be the same as other timeframes. Your results and overall outcome will always be different...just saying from my own experience. Many folks do this mistake of not trading in demo EXACTLY the same way with same parameters when they want to go live with. If they are not the same, you will have a rude awakening and mindset to be affected Again,vno need to listen to me or anyone else :-)

Edit: I trade Demo and Live in parallel for a specific reason and I shall remain a demo trader for rest of my trading journey.
Staying in my lane...
  • #70
  • Aug 19, 2018 12:23am Aug 19, 2018 12:23am
Inserted Video
  • #71
  • Aug 19, 2018 9:25am Aug 19, 2018 9:25am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Kudos and thank you for not being another red flag idiot like most out here. Glad someone else agrees with me that no matter what entry strategy you apply, the outcome is always 50:50 over a long series of trades. There is a reason why I ask for 3yrs of evidence to prove a profitable strategy (to yourself). {quote} Kudos on finding your edge so take this with a grain of salt for whatever it is worth. I won't give a shit about anyone saying anything negative about my work and neither should you. My only concern is your approach listed in...
Alright, thanks Vee!

The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that:
if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period,
it will happen less frequently in the future. (!)

You don't need to know about Bayesian inference or high stuff statistics.
All you need is little common sense.

Here's an example, the pic in attach:
If you flip the coin 4 times and you got 4 "heads", you might be biased to bet that the "tail" has more than 50% chances to show up.
Obviously wrong. The chances always stays the same, 50%.

Perhaps the most famous example of the gambler’s fallacy occurred in a game of roulette at the Monte Carlo Casino on August 18, 1913, when the ball fell in black 26 times in a row.
This was an extremely uncommon occurrence, with a probability of around 1 in 136.8 million.
Gamblers lost millions of francs betting against black, reasoning incorrectly that the streak was causing an imbalance in the randomness of the wheel,
and that it had to be followed by a long streak of red.

The same mistake in trading:
If an asset is overbought like it went up for 500 pips, you might think that selling just 50 pips after, you will have more chances to win.
No way! Obviously, you'll never have more than 50%.
And remember, all the TA indies are doing almost the same thing, they show "point breaks" or "continuation" based on past price action sequences, patterns...

The point is: common trading it's a 50-50% game. That means, no edge.

But trading is so much fun ...so, have fun folks!
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  • #72
  • Aug 19, 2018 9:31am Aug 19, 2018 9:31am
if you feel desperated to trade. Dont do it.
Let automated system does this.
there is always chance for all people to make profit from forex.
Profit growth tells you the trader ability.
  • #73
  • Edited 11:30am Aug 19, 2018 11:18am | Edited 11:30am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Alright, thanks Vee! The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that: if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future. (!) You don't need to know about Bayesian inference or high stuff statistics. All you need is little common sense. Here's an example, the pic in attach: If you flip the coin 4 times and you got 4 "heads", you might be biased to bet that the "tail" has more than 50% chances...
so i get that you have 50% chance from statistical perspective, but how does behavioral finance factor into all this. surely, the irrational behaviors of market participants at certain times pushes the chances beyond 50% for some setups at a given time window.

a game of dice is poor analogy to markets imo. dice game has no feelings, no greed or fear. it just is. pure mathematical outcome.

Unless when you say 50/50, you're only talking about setups (i.e entry/exits). But maybe overal market structure is not 50/50 chance.

At least that's my thought. certain times, the market give you >50% chance due to these "excessive sentiment" for BRIEF PERIODS (and i'm not talking about typical retail technical definintion of trends or OB/OS conditions). Your job is to figure out how extreme sentiment is defined within your own trading world, and take advantage of it.
  • #74
  • Aug 19, 2018 11:41am Aug 19, 2018 11:41am
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} so i get that you have 50% chance from statistical perspective, but how does behavioral finance factor into all this. surely, the irrational behaviors of market participants at certain times pushes the chances beyond 50% for some setups at a given time window. a game of dice is poor analogy to markets imo. dice game has no feelings, no greed or fear. it just is. pure mathematical outcome. Unless when you say 50/50, you're only talking about setups (i.e entry/exits). But maybe overal market structure is not 50/50 chance. At least that's my...
its a damn 50/50 chance, u cant win and u cant take the opposite to win and u are right some setups have some periods of from 60 to 100 % win rate thats why we read some noobs talking about a profitable ea or system its just because they was in the lucky period after some time the reaper come to take his money back with benefits ofc

the problem with the lucky period for us is that we cannot know about it soon enough, we just see it as a history

and u are right again
we should give u the money so we get out this losers game sooner, thats the only way to beat the gang "no more free candies"

cheers ppl
  • #75
  • Aug 19, 2018 11:47am Aug 19, 2018 11:47am
Most of this pa is not worthless due to psychology and market timing, since Charlatans are selling it , in place of selling the stochastics indicator to noobs.

.I have been past all this nonsense education and charlatan educators on forums from George Soros , George a forum fake is buying from real traders on forums, a price action course.
  • #76
  • Aug 19, 2018 3:23pm Aug 19, 2018 3:23pm
Quoting llxx77dd
{quote} its a damn 50/50 chance, u cant win and u cant take the opposite to win and u are right some setups have some periods of from 60 to 100 % win rate thats why we read some noobs talking about a profitable ea or system its just because they was in the lucky period after some time the reaper come to take his money back with benefits ofc the problem with the lucky period for us is that we cannot know about it soon enough, we just see it as a history and u are right again we should give u the money so we get out this losers game sooner,...
accumulation and distribution happens all the time , within these moments you can get a trade with a edge.
Either play the range in which the accumulation is taking place or wait for the break out of the range.
Trade with a tight stop loss and don't be afraid to change direction if you original entry turns out to be wrong.
As far as knowing when accumulation and distribution is taking place , this come down to experience for many.
My pattern is related to accumulation and distribution but is not quite the same.
  • #77
  • Aug 19, 2018 5:15pm Aug 19, 2018 5:15pm
Quoting AmmaBoss
{quote} accumulation and distribution happens all the time , within these moments you can get a trade with a edge. Either play the range in which the accumulation is taking place or wait for the break out of the range. Trade with a tight stop loss and don't be afraid to change direction if you original entry turns out to be wrong. As far as knowing when accumulation and distribution is taking place , this come down to experience for many. My pattern is related to accumulation and distribution but is not quite the same.
man just give me ur investor pass and let me copy ur trades for some money
why u make it so hard ppl ? im i right ?
  • #78
  • Aug 19, 2018 11:03pm Aug 19, 2018 11:03pm
Quoting voketexpert
if you feel desperated to trade. Dont do it. Let automated system does this. there is always chance for all people to make profit from forex.
For this i quite disagree.i too,like you depend on ea to trade for me,because i didnt know how to trade well.but my depandent to expert advisor is killing me.i lost so much because stupid ea and ea cost. and because of ea, i didnt learn anything about trading and repeating same mistakes to find a better ea

My suggestion,find your own trading before using ea. There is no shortcut in trading learning
  • #79
  • Aug 20, 2018 12:22am Aug 20, 2018 12:22am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Alright, thanks Vee! The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that: if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future. (!) You don't need to know about Bayesian inference or high stuff statistics. All you need is little common sense. Here's an example, the pic in attach: If you flip the coin 4 times and you got 4 "heads", you might be biased to bet that the "tail" has more than 50% chances...
If you ever studied statistical math, you would get opposing view to 50-50.

I actually bet (and lost) my wife's gyno that stats said I had a 44% chance of a boy on my second child so I bet we would have girl. The Gyno said it's 50-50 chance boy or girl. This was before doc's could determine child's gender before birth. Both my children are male.

But that does not disprove you can get the edge, just that it does not work every time and 56% chance is not enough to bet the farm.

If you think market is 50-50, you will lose all your invested capital because it's not 50-50. The house has the edge of the spread.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #80
  • Edited 1:22am Aug 20, 2018 12:37am | Edited 1:22am
Quoting sugiatno
{quote} For this i quite disagree.i too,like you depend on ea to trade for me,because i didnt know how to trade well.but my depandent to expert advisor is killing me.i lost so much because stupid ea and ea cost. and because of ea, i didnt learn anything about trading and repeating same mistakes to find a better ea My suggestion,find your own trading before using ea. There is no shortcut in trading learning

Ea gets garbage knowledge coded , result is garbage /EAS THAT ARE USELESS.

Professional trader inputs professional knowledge into EA , he gets professional profitable EAS. I had to learn real trading in the markets, after my EAS failed many times. After many years and many failures , I learnt professional trading.




https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=802780
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