DislikedShame this thread has come to this... I guess what people need to understand is that although there is a 80-90% win ratio with TP 4 pips and SL 36 pips, you do not hold until you hit the full 36 pip stop loss. That is there for you in case of emergency (lose power, lose internet connection etc etc). In reality, I personally hold and if it goes to -15 pips I am out. If you randomly enter trades, you will have an 80-90% win ratio per sis analysis. However you need to remember we are not entering trades randomly - we are entering them at the optimal...Ignored
I crunched some data the other day, was able to determine that ~90% of your 4 pip winners, will NOT exceed 15 pips draw down, and ~95% will not exceed 21 pips. So as you say, letting a loser run to 36 pips should rarely, if ever happen, it's an emergency stop, but some people cant seem to grasp this simple concept.
These figures were based on 310,612 trades, following all 7 rules mechanically over a 15 year period on EU. I'm yet to simulate the time MAE and MFE vs Candle hold time, my PC is still crunching the data.
I trust Sis's stats, but it's unknown which pair he used, or whether he used both pairs, in any event he's gone for a bit, and I want to break down his stats a bit more specifically into pairs, time of day, day of week and determine for myself whether this impacts MAE/MFE and if so, how it can be exploited for profit. There might be a difference, UJ behaves differently in the Asian session than EU for example, so, IMHO that should be factored in statistically when making trading decisions, rather than a simple 15 or 21 pip hard fixed SL. I'm yet to run the simulation on UJ as i'm still crunching numbers for EU. But it will happen, in time.
I like statistics, and ultimately, i'll program an Excel App and gives you a perspective candle by candle, trade by trade, based on time of day, day of the week and rule, to allow you to make better trading decisions. EG. When to hold, when to abandon ship and when to stack the hell out of it.
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