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Problem with a trend following strategy

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 14, 2018 6:40pm Aug 14, 2018 6:40pm
So - I have a simple trend following strategy, I'm always looking for entry at the first higher low or lower high (but only if price has made a new higher high or lower low), but I don't feel confident with it. I would like to trade on a lower timeframe like M5 or M15, but trading these timeframes without looking at H4 or D1 is very hard or almost impossible, unless someone have a good trend indicators. The problem is that when I look at the overall trend on the H4 or D1 chart I see a mess - it's easier for me to trade a single candlestick than a whole trend, because when we have a bearish day during a bullish trend even all trades in line with the trend from a higher timeframe can easily get stopped out. How to overcome this? I tried many methods and still can't get this done. I want to take main entries on M5 or M15, but I don't know what kind of confirmation I should have from a higher timeframe. And I'm horribly fixated on taking only the first HL or LH, because I'm scared that on every next HL or LH I will get stopped out because of a trend change. I'm not looking for a huge trades - just for 20-30 pips with a 10-15 stop loss, but these uncertainties don't allow me to trade freely. I don't know what kind of setup I should look for on the higher timeframe to trade it later on the M5 or M15...


Any solutions or tips? I will be very thankful for any help...
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #2
  • Aug 14, 2018 7:59pm Aug 14, 2018 7:59pm
I have a simple trend following strategy,
Every one likes to follow the trend because trend is your friend is drummed in our heads and it is true,I wish it was so easy to find the trend,I follow the candle of monthly,HH and HL of weekly and daily TF for direction,it sounds too difficult but it is not,set up one profile with these 3 TF,it will give you good picture of trend.
I'm always looking for entry at the first higher low or lower high (but only if price has made a new higher high or lower low), but I don't feel confident with it.
No one knows for sure if reversal has reached due to its very nature of PA until one is expert on reading EW,so to keep it simple,I always enter on 2nd HH or LL of any reversals on higher TF like 4H.
I would like to trade on a lower timeframe like M5 or M15, but trading these timeframes without looking at H4 or D1 is very hard or almost impossible, unless someone have a good trend indicators.
Almost all newbies jump to 5-15 min trading due to over excitement and overnight getting rich mentality but unfortunately this is not true.lower time frames have huge noise,I recommend 4H or higher TF for stressfree and successful trading. Although there are many MTF dashboards available on this forum,you can try em!
The problem is that when I look at the overall trend on the H4 or D1 chart I see a mess - it's easier for me to trade a single candlestick than a whole trend,
Unfortunately the one candle trick doesn’t work,because all candles are in motion and they change all the time even the monthly candle,so there is no easy answer for that.you need to tailor your own system that gives you confidence, if you will take anyone’s system,that might not work for you.
because when we have a bearish day during a bullish trend even all trades in line with the trend from a higher timeframe can easily get stopped out. How to overcome this?
Remember the PA moves in waves due to retracements.In any one day(24 hours)there would be at least 2-3 bullish and bearish trade opportunities in lower time frames like 5 min time frame.
I tried many methods and still can't get this done. I want to take main entries on M5 or M15, but I don't know what kind of confirmation I should have from a higher timeframe. And I'm horribly fixated on taking only the first HL or LH,
Please don’t take it personally, I have read and experienced by being mentored by several mentors that they do the same things, they use the same indicators , strategies and expecting different results. IMHO learn from our experiences what works and discard what doesn’t work and move on to something better and not fixated on old habits.
because I'm scared that on every next HL or LH I will get stopped out because of a trend change. I'm not looking for a huge trades - just for 20-30 pips with a 10-15 stop loss, but these uncertainties don't allow me to trade freely. I don't know what kind of setup I should look for on the higher timeframe to trade it later on the M5 or M15...
It seems to me that you want to eat a baked cake,There are many strategies in ffx forums,study them and see what suits you,it seems that you keep tight stop loss,brokers always chase the stops,so revisit the stop loss part of your trading.most traders keep the previous highs or lows,MAs or fractal breaks as stoploss.

I apologize for my English and if someone thinks differently or feel offended.
Best of luck!
  • #3
  • Aug 14, 2018 9:53pm Aug 14, 2018 9:53pm
I created a thread some time ago that basically does what you are asking here. This strategy does take some study but once you "see it" I promise you will never see the market the same way. Let me know if you have any questions.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=716664
  • #4
  • Aug 14, 2018 11:56pm Aug 14, 2018 11:56pm
i created this thread and it works.You don't have enough knowledge to create a great strategy. If you want to learn, read everything and follow strategy.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=805676
  • #5
  • Aug 15, 2018 12:34am Aug 15, 2018 12:34am
Quoting loozers
i created this thread and it works.You don't have enough knowledge to create a great strategy. If you want to learn, read everything and follow strategy. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=805676
Nice. . promoting your own trade maybe u like to tell us when you go commercial and how much or you are still promoting and offer free course before commercialization.

Hehe
  • #6
  • Aug 15, 2018 12:53am Aug 15, 2018 12:53am
Quoting genghistar
{quote} Nice. . promoting your own trade maybe u like to tell us when you go commercial and how much or you are still promoting and offer free course before commercialization. Hehe

Real traders don't need to go commercial, they make money in the markets.It is all free information, it will never be deleted.I am just showing him a thread which makes money, instead of following the 3,000 failed systems here.If they worked , he would not need any other system.

You only need one system

He is using tight stops but system explains why tight stops are no good

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post11358222
  • #7
  • Aug 15, 2018 1:18am Aug 15, 2018 1:18am
Quoting loozers
{quote} Real traders don't need to go commercial, they make money in the markets.It is all free information, it will never be deleted.I am just showing him a thread which makes money, instead of following the 3,000 failed systems here.If they worked , he would not need any other system. You only need one system He is using tight stops but system explains why tight stops are no good https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...2#post11358222
So you said this system is the only system that can help him make money and you have evidence of that fact. Perhaps you can make a few live trade calls to prove the robustness of the system or a execution plan inclusive of the entry/sl/tp on the next impending trade related to the system you recommended..
  • #8
  • Aug 15, 2018 1:21am Aug 15, 2018 1:21am
Quoting genghistar
{quote} So you said this system is the only system that can help him make money and you have evidence of that fact. Perhaps you can make a few live trade calls to prove the robustness of the system or a execution plan inclusive of the entry/sl/tp on the next impending trade related to the system you recommended..

When EA gives signals/trades , I post them , they use system rules. The system is provided in writing.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post11367614
  • #9
  • Aug 15, 2018 2:09am Aug 15, 2018 2:09am
Subs. Thanks and
Regards
  • #10
  • Aug 15, 2018 2:54am Aug 15, 2018 2:54am
Quoting loozers
{quote} When EA gives signals/trades , I post them , they use system rules. The system is provided in writing. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post11367614
You are out of context again but anyway if you keep doing the things you do then hopefully you can last a long time here touting your only money making EA. The OP wanted help for a trend following method and not a freaking EA.
  • #11
  • Edited 3:46am Aug 15, 2018 3:20am | Edited 3:46am
Quoting genghistar
{quote} You are out of context again but anyway if you keep doing the things you do then hopefully you can last a long time here touting your only money making EA. The OP wanted help for a trend following method and not a freaking EA.
Exactly I gave him help on trend following , how to do it like a real trader , for free no books i.e all books are written by failed traders.If you learn from books, it is like the blind following the blind, traders end up as failures.

I did not offer him charlatan education on trend following.Michael Covel does not trade, he makes money from selling education , books and seminars .The old saying applies.Those who can do , those who can't teach trend following through books.

I trade trend following.I don't teach.This is forex factory , producing real trend traders.

How can op go to people who don't trade trends?
Attached File(s)
File Type: docx SIGNAL APPROVAL FORM 2014 v11.docx   61 KB | 496 downloads
  • #12
  • Aug 15, 2018 11:57am Aug 15, 2018 11:57am
This is how I identify trends, it takes a bit of practice, but the ABSOLUTE KEY is DON'T LOOK TOO HARD!!!!!

BEFORE you study the picture, blue trend lines are right, BLACK AND BOLD WRONG!!!!.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trend.png Size: 20 KB


I spent more time than I care to think about trying to do trends as per black lines, but that's not a trend, the bottom black trendline might look ok but there is no direction, the top one doesn't follow any kind of channel, and there's no direction in the middle between them.

If you look at the blue lines, they are clearly identifiable trends, line through the middle you can see, so I'm short yesterday with a 30 PIP SL, lack of patience, could have probably got in with 10, and now I'd be well in profit, but hey ho, that's trading for you, sometimes you miss out when your patient, sometimes you gain, but take your decision in context, if you have a pin bar at 12:00 GMT, it's probably better to be a bit eager, at slow times, maybe wait a bit more, but always, swings and roundabouts, it don't matter how long you trade you'll never get that right. You can of course, just always be more patient which will probably work best.

I've removed all charts below 2 hr off my list!!! I find the 2hr chart great for entries.

Trade from the bottom trendline to the top and vice versa, take some profit on the way.

That's it, that's all I do, and that is how I became consistent, VERY CONSISTENT, after a very very very very long long long time
  • #13
  • Aug 15, 2018 4:04pm Aug 15, 2018 4:04pm
Defining trend on lower timeframes is easy, but as I wrote earlier - trading only one interval is dangerous... I need a good main setup on H4 or D1, but I don't know what it could be...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trend.png Size: 36 KB
Trade or not to trade - that is the question...
  • #14
  • Aug 15, 2018 9:27pm Aug 15, 2018 9:27pm
Quoting freakout
Defining trend on lower timeframes is easy, but as I wrote earlier - trading only one interval is dangerous... I need a good main setup on H4 or D1, but I don't know what it could be... {image}

Use these indicators , trade only when you get trend signals on adx and trade correlated pairs. Psychology is 80% of trading , learn psychology.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=804723

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post11359948
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MTF_MCP_ADX_DMI_List.mq4   42 KB | 490 downloads
File Type: mq4 MTF_MCP_ADX_DMI_List_indices.mq4   42 KB | 455 downloads
  • #15
  • Aug 16, 2018 5:59am Aug 16, 2018 5:59am
Quoting freakout
Defining trend on lower timeframes is easy, but as I wrote earlier - trading only one interval is dangerous... I need a good main setup on H4 or D1, but I don't know what it could be... {image}
Here is an example of how to spot a higher low. Here look at the 4 hour. The setup has already occurred in the blue area on this time frame. But drop to a 1 hour and you will see the same pattern. We don't know if this will work yet or not but this is how it is identified, and it is not in hindsight.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 31 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 30 KB
  • #16
  • Aug 16, 2018 6:40am Aug 16, 2018 6:40am
Quoting freakout
Defining trend on lower timeframes is easy, but as I wrote earlier - trading only one interval is dangerous... I need a good main setup on H4 or D1, but I don't know what it could be... {image}
Hi freakout,
thanks for bringing this problem up and for being honest !

Here is an indi which draws dotted High-Low- lines of previous day, current day, current week, previous week, for months too...

Was searching for a MTF HH HL LL LH indi, because it is exactly as you explained.

Find a coder who can make it show H4, H1, M30 too (or only ) and I am sure, you (and all of us) will be way closer to solve the problem you talked about.
Combine it with this and you get a nice pic of the market...
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 zulufx_HHLHLLHL.ex4   8 KB | 502 downloads


Regards

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MTF_HI_LOW_v1.mq4   21 KB | 518 downloads
  • #17
  • Aug 16, 2018 9:25am Aug 16, 2018 9:25am
THIS is the issue dear:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gfugufgufgh.png Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gfufgufg.png Size: 34 KB
www.sme-fx.com
  • #18
  • Aug 16, 2018 9:25am Aug 16, 2018 9:25am
The SM Algos will kick you out, trying to ride trends.


Stay safe,


FF
www.sme-fx.com
  • #19
  • Last Post: Aug 16, 2018 10:27am Aug 16, 2018 10:27am
Quoting loozers
{quote} Use these indicators , trade only when you get trend signals on adx and trade correlated pairs. Psychology is 80% of trading , learn psychology. https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=804723 https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post11359948 {file} {file}
Wow; thank you very much! Let me check for upcoming 3 months! I’ll update you then.
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