Intraday Analysis August 2018

Intraday Analysis 2nd August 2018

BoE Set to Hike Rates Today
Daily Forex Market Preview, 02/08/2018

The U.S. dollar strengthened as the Federal Reserve left the interest rates unchanged at its meeting yesterday, as expected. The central bank upgraded its U.S. economic growth to solid; underlining the fact that further rate hikes are imminent.


Earlier in the day, economic data showed that the private payrolls added 219k jobs during the month, beating estimates of 186k. The ISM’s manufacturing PMI disappointed, however rising to 58.1 on the index which was below forecasts.
In the UK, the manufacturing PMI was seen at 54.0, slightly below estimates of 54.2.
Looking ahead, economic data today will cover the UK’s construction PMI. The index is expected to ease to 52.8 from 53.1 last month.
The Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting is scheduled later in the day. Interest rates are expected to rise 25 basis points to 0.75% at today’s meeting.


EURUSD intra-day analysis

EURUSD (1.1650): The EURUSD currency pair was seen extending its declines following the failure to break past the resistance level on Tuesday. Price action reversed the gains and is seen trading near the previous lows formed. On the 4-hour chart, the currency pair is expected to test the minor rising trend line which is likely to form an ascending triangle. A rebound off this rising trendline could signal near-term gains which can be confirmed on a close above 1.1688. Still, the Common Currency will need to break past 1.1742 to confirm the upside.


USDJPY intra-day analysis

USDJPY (111.54): The USDJPY currency pair extended gains briefly, rising to highs above 112.00. However, the gains quickly disappeared as the currency pair gave up the gains. Still, with the USDJPY trading above the major trend line, we expect the gains to hold in the near term. Price action is likely to consolidate near the current levels with the resistance level at 112.28 likely to be tested in the near term. A break down below the trend line could see the previous support level coming into the picture.


XAUUSD intra-day analysis

XAUUSD (1218.87): Gold prices are seen consolidating into a triangle pattern near the current support level around the 1219 region. With the divergence on the 4-hour chart building up, we anticipate a possible upside breakout. However, with gold prices closing on a bearish note, there is scope for a downside decline as well. To the upside, a successful breakout could trigger further gains toward the 1242 level. Alternately, a close below 1219 support could send gold prices falling toward the 1200 round support number.

The U.S. Dollar was seen trading rather firm on Thursday. Lack of economic news flow has shifted focus on the United Kingdom.
The Bank of England hiked interest rates by 25 basis points as widely expected. This brought the short-term interest rates to 0.75%. The central bank, however, signaled that further interest rate hikes would come gradually. The Pound Sterling fell on the back of this news as investors now expect to see the next rate hike in 2019.

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Looking ahead, the UK’s services PMI figures will be coming out today. Economists forecast that the services sector activity fell to 54.7 in July compared to 55.1 the month before.
The main focus will, of course, be on the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report. Estimates show that the U.S. economy added 190k jobs during the month. The unemployment rate is expected to slip back to 3.9% while wage growth is forecasted to rise 0.3% on the month.
The day concludes with the ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI which is expected to ease to 58.6.

EURUSD intra-day analysis
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EURUSD (1.1591): The EURUSD currency pair extended losses for a second day as the U.S. Dollar strengthened. Price action is seen pushing lower as the Common Currency is likely to retest the lower support range at 1.1540. While the decline is expected; we expect it to stall somewhere near the support level. The Common Currency is expected to continue maintaining its range within 1.1730 and 1.1540 level in the near term. Any short-term rebound is likely to see a pullback to the 1.1621 level.


USDJPY intra-day analsis
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USDJPY (111.69): The USDJPY currency pair was seen falling toward the rising trend line before posting a rather strong rebound. We expect the upside to prevail as price action could potentially aim for a retest of the 112.28 resistance level. This is expected only on a close above the previous highs which could potentially build up the bullish momentum. Alternately, failure to retest the resistance level could keep USDJPY subdued with the downside bias likely to increase.


XAUUSD intra-day analysis
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XAUUSD (1207.51): Gold prices extended strong declines on the day as price action fell below the support level of 1219. In the near term, gold is expected to trade sideways as it approaches the 1207 – 1204 region. The round number support at 1200 could keep the declines limited for the moment. Gold is expected to now trade within the range of 1219 and 1200 region. A breakout from this level could, however, set the stage for the near-term direction in price.

The U.S. Dollar was seen trading mixed by Friday’s close. The commodity risk currencies were the biggest gainers of the day including Gold, which advanced 0.52% by Friday’s close. The Euro and the Pound Sterling were seen trading at weaker levels.
The July Payrolls report showed that the U.S. economy added 157,000 jobs during the month. The headline missed estimates of 191k. But the unemployment rate fell to 3.9% from 4.0% previously. Wage growth was also seen advancing at a pace of 0.3% on the month as expected. This pushed the yearly average wages to 2.7%.

Elsewhere, the UK’s services PMI was weaker than expected, falling to 53.5 in July. This was a weaker print compared to June’s headline of 55.1
Looking ahead, the economic calendar today is very light. The European trading session will be marked by the release of the German Factory Orders report which is expected to show a 0.3% decline. Later, the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence report will be coming out with the index forecast to rise to 12.8.
EURUSD Intra-day Analysis
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EURUSD (1.1563): The Common Currency was seen extending its declines by Friday’s close. Price action is now seen trading close to the support level at 1.1540. The price action marks nearly a month and a half of sideways range between 1.1730 and 1.1540. In the near-term, the currency pair could be seen rebounding off the support level at 1.1540. If this scenario plays out, we expect to see the ranging price action being maintained. In the event that the currency pair breaks below 1.1540 further declines could be anticipated.

USDJPY Intra-day Analysis
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USDJPY (111.32): The USDJPY currency pair was weaker on Friday extending its three-day decline. Price action stalled near the support level at 111.13 – 110.85 region. This could potentially stall the declines in the near-term. However, if there is a break out from this level, the currency pair could be seen posting strong declines. Price action is currently signaling a descending triangle pattern being formed with the baseline support established at the 111.13 – 110.85 handle.
XAUUSD Intra-day Analysis
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XAUUSD (1216.03): Gold prices turned bullish on Friday, but the consolidation continues. The daily chart signals a potential bullish divergence on the Stochastics. This could perhaps signal an upside break out in the near-term. Gold will need to break out above 1219.75 level of resistance to confirm this upside. Alternately, on the 4-hour chart, we expect the consolidation to continue within the 1219.75 resistance level and previous lows at 1204.50.

The U.S. Dollar was trading mixed on Tuesday as the Euro posted a strong rebound. Economic data was sparse. Canada’s Ivey PMI report showed that the index increased to 61.8, missing estimates of 64.2 and down from the previous 63.1.

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New Zealand’s inflation expectations for the quarter showed a 2.0% increase, rising at the same pace as before. The economic data for the remainder of the day will see the release of Canada’s building permits report. FOMC member Barkin is expected to speak later this evening.
Investors will be turning to the RBNZ later tonight for its monetary policy decision. The RBNZ is set to hold interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting.
EURUSD Intraday Analysis

EURUSD (1.1618): The EURUSD currency pair posted a strong rebound off the support level at 1.1540, to close at a two day high. Price action remains range bound within 1.1730 resistance and the said support level. On the 4-hour chart, the retracement is seen around the 38.2% level currently. Further gains could see price action rising toward 1.1664 marking a 61.8% retracement. We expect some moderation in the correction and as long as the support holds, the currency pair could be looking at changing the flat movement.
USDJPY Intraday Analysis

USDJPY (111.38): The USDJPY currency pair was seen consolidating below the 112.18 level for the past five days. With the support level at 111.13 – 110.85 holding out, the bias is currently in favor of the upside. However, USDJPY will need to clear past the previous highs and potentially retest the resistance level at 112.28 region in order to confirm the upside. Failure to do so could keep the currency pair trading sideways for the moment. In the event of a break down below 111.13 – 110.85, USDJPY could trigger a correction.
XAUUSD Intraday Analysis

XAUUSD (1213.68): Gold prices were seen trading flat with price action continuing to consolidate near the 1211 region. With the minor resistance level at 1219.75 holding out currently, Gold prices could be seen pushing lower. Unless the resistance level is breached, the price of the precious metal could remain under pressure. To the upside, above 1219.75 further gains could trigger a move toward the 1242.25 region. To the downside, there is a risk that Gold prices could extend its declines down to the support region of 1200.00 region.

The U.S. Dollar was on the back foot on Wednesday. China is set to hit the U.S with fresh trade tariffs of the amount of $60 billion. The market reaction was however largely muted.

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The British Pound was hit by a bout of negative sentiment. The currency weakened against the Dollar and the Euro as investors grew concerned about a no Brexit deal. The Euro was seen rising to a nine-month high. The sentiment increased as the UK’s international trade minister, Liam Fox said that the odds of a no-deal Brexit had increased significantly.
The RBNZ held its monetary policy meeting during the overnight session. The overnight cash rate, OCR was left unchanged as widely expected. The RBNZ’s monetary policy statement also did not see any major changes.
Earlier today, China’s inflation data showed that consumer prices advanced 2.1% on an annualized basis in July. The data beat expectations of a 2.0% increase and was higher from 1.9% since June.
Looking ahead the U.S. will be reporting on the Producer Prices Index data. Consensus for the PPI is at 0.2% on both the headline and core PPI measures. The weekly unemployment claims report is also due later today too.
The markets are expected to be relatively quiet during the European trading session with no major releases scheduled.


EURUSD Intraday Analysis

EURUSD (1.1612): The EURUSD currency pair was slightly bullish but price action was muted overall. The rather slow momentum following the bounce off the support level at 1.5400 could come at a risk of another decline to the downside. Price action on the 4-hour chart shows that there has been a retracement. However, while the currency pair is still trading within the range of 1.1730 and 1.1540, there is scope of a reversal. If the bearish short-term trend resumes, there is a potential for prices to break past the support level.


USDJPY Intraday Analysis

USDJPY (110.79): The USDJPY currency pair closed below the support level at 111.13 – 110.85. The declines came on the back of a failure to close higher, following a brief retest of the support level. The move to the downside is expected to send the USDJPY lower. In the medium-term, we expect the declines to potentially push prices to test the lower support at 108.74 initially. However, with price action testing the 50-day moving average, we could expect some short-term support to hold the declines.


XAUUSD Intraday Analysis

XAUUSD (1215.02): Gold prices managed to modestly push higher on the day. Price action was seen closing above the 1211.50 level of support. However, with the gains being very modest, there is a risk of further consolidation. The main resistance at 1219.75 remains a key level that needs to be breached. A close above this level could push Gold prices higher. The next main resistance level is seen at 1242.25 level.

The U.S. dollar gained on Friday as the geopolitical tensions saw the Turkish lira plummeting. The euro was also not spared as initially news reports citing the ECB showed that the central bank was concerned about exposure to Turkey. The U.S. dollar index surged to new highs by Friday’s close.

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Economic data was clearly overshadowed by the broader themes. The UK’s preliminary second-quarter GDP datashowed that the economic advanced 0.4% as expected.
Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 5.8% in July compared to June’s 6.0%, while the economy added 54.1k jobs during the month. In the U.S. the headline inflation rate was seen rising 0.2% on the month as expected. Core CPI also advanced 0.2% matching estimates.
Looking ahead, the markets look to a quiet day with not much of economic releases scheduled.


EURUSD (1.1373): The euro currency was seen breaking past the 1.1540 support level. The common currency fell close to 1% by Friday’s close. The declines stalled as the EURUSD touched down to 1.1400 round number support. A rebound off this level could offer some temporary respite although further losses cannot be ruled out. On the 4-hour chart, the previously breached 1.1540 level could act as resistance on a rebound. The gains are likely to be limited as long as this resistance level holds.


USDJPY (110.17): The USDJPY currency pair managed to trade flat, relative to the declines across other currency pairs. Price action continued to consolidate near the support level of 111.13 – 110.85 by Friday’s close. Given the close below the support level earlier on Monday, the probability of a decline to the downside rises. The next main support level comes in at 109.45 which could be tested in the short term.


XAUUSD (1206.06): Gold prices barely budged on Friday despite the rising market sentiment. Gold prices continue to trade near the 1211.50 level of support with price action being rather subdued. However, we anticipate a potential breakout from this range between 1219.75 and 1211.50 in the near term. A break down below 1211.50 could trigger declines down to 1200.00 eventually. To the upside, gold prices could be seen testing the resistance at 1242.50.

The U.S. dollar index was seen trading flat on Monday with the technical pattern confirming a doji close. A bearish follow through from here on could signal a near-term correction. Economic data for the day was sparse. Still, the Turkish lira continued to plunge dragging down the euro currency rather briefly.
Economic data today will start with the release of the second revised GDP estimates for Germany. Forecasts point to no change as the German GDP growth is expected to be confirmed at 0.4%. The final inflation figures are also due which is forecast to rise 0.3% as per the flash estimates.
In the UK, the average earnings index is expected to rise 2.5% in the three months to July. The UK’s unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%.
The Eurozone flash GDP estimates marking the second revision is forecast to confirm that the Eurozone economy advanced 0.3% in the second quarter.


EURUSD intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1410): The EURUSD currency pair was seen closing on Monday with some modest gains after gapping lower on the open. Price action slipped below the 1.1400 technical level of support before recovering slightly. A bullish close on the day could potentially trigger some near-term upside in price action. On the 4-hour chart, the EURUSD could be seen targeting the 1.1540 level where resistance could be established. However, this is likely to occur on a potential decline back with a higher low being formed.


USDJPY intraday analysis

USDJPY (110.82): The USDJPY currency pair gapped lower on Monday but price action managed to close with some gains. Price action was seen retracing back to the breached support level around 111.13 – 110.85 regions. A breakout above this level is required in order for USDJPY to post further gains to the upside. Alternately, failure to break past this price level could signal further downside bias. The next lower support is seen at 109.45 which could be tested in the near term.


XAUUSD intraday analysis

XAUUSD (1195.53): Gold prices fell sharply on the day as price action breached below the round number support of 1200.00 to test the lows of 1191.78. The declines in gold prices come despite the rising geopolitical tensions which saw gold failing to emerge as a safe haven flow. Price action on the 4-hour chart is currently signaling a potential reversal with the formation of multiple doji candlesticks near the current low. A bullish close on the 4-hour chart could signal some modest recovery. However, price action needs to close above 1211.50 in order to confirm a retracement.

The U.S. dollar was seen trading a bit subdued on Wednesday. However, price action was seen staying firm for the most part. Economic data over the day saw the Australia wage price index. For the second quarter, wages grew at a pace of 0.6% matching estimates.
In the UK, inflation was seen rising for the first time this year. Headline inflation rate rose to 2.5% during July matching estimates. Core inflation rate was seen rising 1.9%, the same pace as the month before.

The NY trading session saw the U.S. retail sales rising 0.5% on the headline and 0.6% on the core. Both the reports beat market expectations. Manufacturing activity as measured by the Empire State manufacturing index rose to 25.6.
Looking ahead, the economic calendar today will see the release of the UK’s retail sales report. Economists forecast headline retail sales to rise 0.5% in July.
In the NY trading session, building permits and housing starts reports are due.


EURUSD intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1382): The EURUSD currency pair extended the declines touching down to fresh intraday lows of 1.1301. Price action managed to recover slightly closing with a doji near the lows. On the 4-hour chart, the EURUSD currency pair was seen attempting to trade back above the 1.1366 level. As this level served as a brief support, the rebound off 1.1366 could signal a potential correction in the near term. A retest of 1.1366 could confirm the upside bias as the EURUSD could be seen pushing higher to test 1.1540 level where resistance could be established.


USDJPY intraday analysis

USDJPY (110.78): The USDJPY currency pair was bearish on Wednesday with price action closing with an outside bar on the day. The declines send the currency pair plunging below the support level of 111.13 – 110.85 level. Failure to hold the declines at this level could trigger further losses in store. The USDJPY currency pair could be seen targeting the 109.45 level of support as a result. However, the declines are expected to be gradual with further consolidation likely to take place near the support/resistance level of 111.13 – 110.85.


XAUUSD intraday analysis

XAUUSD (1172.34): Gold prices were seen declining further as prices touched down to fresh lows of 1160 earlier this morning. The sharp pullback off the lows could trigger a short-term rebound in prices. However, with the previously held support level at 1211.50 now likely to turn to resistance, the gains could be limited. To the downside, we expect gold prices to consolidate around the 1160 – 1150 region in the short term.

Australia’s wage report showed that the unemployment rate fell 5.3% in July. The decline came on a slight decrease in the participation rate. Data showed that the economy lost a net 3.9k jobs. This missed expectations of a 15k increase.
In the UK, retail sales jumped 0.7% on the month in July beating estimates of a 0.5% increase. The robust retail sales figures came amid a drop in real wages.

In the U.S., housing starts data showed an increase of 1.17 million. This was below estimates of 1.27 million but slightly higher compared to the previous month.
The U.S. dollar index was seen retreating following the strong surge during the middle of the week.
Looking ahead, the economic data for the day will see the release of the final inflation figures for July. Economists polled expect to see the headline inflation rise 2.1% on the year while core inflation rate is expected to rise 1.1%.
Canada will also be releasing the monthly inflation figures today. Headline inflation is forecast to rise 0.1%.




EURUSD intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1382): The EURUSD currency pair closed with some modest gains on Thursday following the doji candlestick pattern that emerged the day before. Price action is indicating a potential turn around but with the failure to clear 1.1400, the risk is equally balanced. To the upside, EURUSD needs to close above 1.1400. The recent dip back to 1.1366 could signal a rebound toward 1.1540 resistance if the upside momentum continues.
USDJPY intraday analysis
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USDJPY (110.87): The USDJPY currency pair was seen closing bullish on Thursday. Price action remains trading sideways albeit drifting slightly lower. ON the 4-hour chart, the consolidation is seen taking place near the support and resistance level of 111.13 – 110.85 region. We expect the upside to potentially push the USDJPY currency pair toward 112.18 region. There is a chance that the currency pair could be forming resistance at this level which previously served as support. To the downside, the support at 109.45 remains a target.



XAUUSD intraday analysis

XAUUSD (1176.73): Gold prices pulled back from fresh intraday lows on Thursday. Gold fell to new lows of 1160.32 before recovering to close at 1174. The momentum remains strongly bearish but comes at a risk of a pull-back. The retest of the recently breached support at 1211.50 – 1219.75 remains an ideal price level for a retest. Establishing resistance at this level could keep the momentum to the downside which is however likely to stall in the near term.

The U.S. dollar was seen easing back from the strong gains made earlier in the week. By Friday’s close, the U.S. dollar index was seen giving up the gains and closed near 95.99.
Economic data on Friday saw the release of the final inflation figures from the Eurozone. Data showed that consumer prices rose 2.1% on the headline inflation while core inflation rate also gained 1.1% as estimated.
Canada‘s monthly inflation report showed a 0.5% surge beating estimates of 0.1%. All other measures of inflation were also seen pushing higher.
The economic calendar today is light. The European trading session starts off with the monthly report from the German Bundesbank followed by a speech from the Bundesbank president, Jens Weidmann.
The NY session is quiet with only the FOMC member Bostic due to speak in the afternoon.



EURUSD intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1431): The EURUSD currency pair was seen posting gains on Friday, extending the gains from Thursday. Price action posted a strong rebound off the 1.1339 – 1.1400 level. The breakout from the median line indicates a potential retracement to the upside. Following the breakout above 1.1366, the EURUSD is expected to post a modest decline to form a higher low. This could potentially mark the start of the correction to the upside. The next main resistance is seen at 1.1540 which could be tested in the near term.



USDJPY intraday analysis

USDJPY (110.56): The U.S. dollar was seen closing with a bearish candlestick on Friday. However, price action continues to maintain the sideways trend with the declines being only gradual. On the 4-hour chart, price action cleared below the support level of 111.13 – 110.85 level. We expect to see further consolidation taking place at this level. In the event that price fails to breakout above 111.13 – 110.85 region, we expect the declines to push USDJPY lower toward 109.45 level of support.


XAUUSD intraday analysis

XAUUSD (1186.11): Gold prices fell to fresh yearly lows last week. However, price action managed to pull back from the lows, turning slightly bullish by Friday’s close. Although it is still too premature to expect to see a retracement, watching for a higher low could validate this bias. In the near term, Gold prices could be seen retesting the recently breached support/resistance level at 1219.75 – 1211.50 region. Ahead of the gains, the 1200.00 level of resistance could put a lid on the gains. To the downside, a breakdown below the previous lower close could trigger further declines to 1150.00.

The U.S. dollar was seen easing back on Monday with a slight risk on sentiment following the upcoming China – U.S. trade talks. However, there was some negative news as well with media outlets reporting Trump criticizing the Fed for raising interest rates and also calling out Europe and China for manipulating the currencies.
The comments came as the German Bundesbank released its monthly report. The German central bank said that the economy would be maintaining a strong trade surplus until next year.

The economic calendar for the day will see the release of the UK’s public sector net borrowing. Economists point to a decline of 2.1 billion. The NY trading session is quiet and later during the overnight trading session, the quarterly retail sales figures from New Zealand will be released.
Economists forecast that quarterly retail sales increased 0.4%, advancing from a 0.1% increase from the previous quarter. Core retail sales are expected to rise 0.8% up from 0.6% previously.



EURUSD intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1523): The EURUSD currency pair was seen posting gains for the third consecutive day after the price fell to fresh yearly lows below 1.1400. Price action is currently testing the previously breached support level at 1.1540. A reversal near this resistance level is likely with the 4-hour Stochastics currently showing a hidden bearish divergence. A near-term pullback could give the needed correction. In the near term, price action could remain within 1.1540 and 1.1366 levels of resistance and support.



USDJPY intraday analysis

USDJPY (110.09): The USDJPY currency pair extended declines yesterday as price action was seen easing to a fresh two months low earlier today. The decline of the support level area between 111.13 – 110.85 signals the move lower. The USDJPY is likely to maintain its range below the resistance level with the retest of 109.45 likely. Establishing support here could signal a short-term rebound. Further declines can be expected only on a close below the support level at 109.45.



XAUUSD intraday analysis

XAUUSD (1194.03): Gold prices posted gains for two consecutive days after the previous decline to lows of 1160.32. The current rebound is expected to push the price of the precious metal toward the previous support level at 1211.50 to established resistance. Currently, the pace of gains is signaling a near-term correction to the downside. However, following the higher low, gold prices are likely to inch higher toward 1211.50. A break down below the previous lows could, however, signal further weakness in the currency pair.

The U.S. dollar continued to extend the declines on Tuesday although price action was mostly subdued. The declines came following the U.S. President Trump’s interview with Reuters. During the interview, Trump criticized the Federal Reserve for hiking interest rates. He also called out China and Germany for manipulating their respective currencies.
The comments come in the backdrop of looming trade talks with China. Economic data was sparse on Tuesday. New Zealand’s quarterly retail sales report released later in the evening showed a 1.1% jump on the quarter. This beat estimates of a 0.4% increase. Core retail sales increased 1.4% beating estimates of 0.8%.

The economic calendar remains quiet for the most part during the European trading session. The NY trading session starts off with the release of the retail sales report from Canada.
This is later followed up by the U.S. existing home sales. Later in the afternoon, investors will be tuned to the FOMC meeting minutes. The minutes cover the Fed meeting where interest rates were kept unchanged.


EURUSD intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1571): The three consecutive days of gains in the EURUSD was met with price action briefly rising above the 1.1540 level of resistance. The strong rally over the past four days could see some near-term retracement with the Fed minutes due later today. Any retracement could be limited to the 1.1540 level which could now act as resistance. A break down below this level could keep the EURUSD subdued and trading flat within 1.1540 and 1.1366 levels. To the upside, the next main resistance is seen at 1.1626.


USDJPY intraday analysis

USDJPY (110.43): The USDJPY managed to close with some gains on Wednesday following the previous days of decline. The temporary reversal could potentially expose the currency pair to retesting the breached support area of 111.13 – 110.85. Establishing resistance here could pave way for the USDJPY currency pair to extend the declines back, potentially testing the support at 109.45. In the unlikely event that price action breaks past 111.13, we could expect further gains targeting 112.18.


XAUUSD intraday analysis

XAUUSD (1194.91): Gold prices extended gains for three consecutive days so far as price action closed at 1195.93. Further gains could be capped by the lower trend line of the falling price channel from which it broke out. A reversal here could see a possible retracement back to 1180.24. Establishing support here could signal a higher low being formed. This could potentially post a reversal in price action that could see bullish momentum building up. A break down below 1180.24 could, however, send the price of the precious metal back to previous lows.

The U.S. dollar was trading flat on Wednesday. Economic data was most limited. The Fed released its monthly meeting minutes. The minutes showed that officials were concerned about the impact of trade tariffs on the U.S. economy. However, officials maintained that the U.S. economy was strong.
Ahead of the Fed minutes, the U.S. existing home sales report showed a decline for the fourth consecutive month. Official data showed that existing home sales fell 0.7% in July on a month over month basis. This brought the existing home sales to decline by 1.5% on the year.
Looking ahead, the economic calendar today is somewhat busy. The European trading session will see the release of the flash manufacturing and services PMI data for August. The median forecasts estimate a modest pick-up in activity from the previous quarter.

Later in the day, the ECB will be releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes.
The NY trading session will see the flash manufacturing and services PMI data from IHS Markit. This is followed by the U.S. consumer confidence report and the new home sales data.


EURUSD intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1554): The EURUSD currency pair was seen retreating from Wednesday’s highs earlier this morning. The declines come following price action rallying above the 1.1540 level of resistance. Price action briefly tested the upper resistance at 1.1626 before easing back. As long as 1.1540 now holds out as support, we expect the currency pair to maintain its range within these levels. In the event that the currency pair breaks below 1.1540 support, then we anticipate further losses to push the currency pair lower. The next main support is seen at 1.1366.


USDJPY intraday analysis

USDJPY (110.81): The USDJPY currency pair posted gains for the second day and is seen currently extending these gains. This came following the reversal of the previously established lows around 109.85. The rally sent the U.S. dollar to retest the resistance level area around 111.13 – 110.85 level. As long as this resistance level holds, the USDJPY currency pair could maintain a sideways range. To the downside, a retest of the support at 109.45 is required.


XAUUSD intraday analysis

XAUUSD (1191.78): Gold prices closed with a doji candlestick pattern on Wednesday. The current bearish price action could potentially mark a retracement of the gains. The support at 1180.25 once again comes into focus. The reversal comes following a brief retest of the lower trend line of the falling price channel. A decline toward 1180.25 could mark a retest of the support level. This could potentially make way for gold prices to renew its correction to the upside. In the event of a close below 1180.25, gold prices could extend back to previous lows.

The U.S. dollar was seen recovering from the losses on Thursday. The reversal came following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes.
Economic data on the day showed that the ECB officials were concerned about the risks of the uncertainty from the global trade policies. However, officials remained fairly optimistic that growth would remain firm.
Economic data saw the release of the flash manufacturing and services PMI from the Eurozone. While the flash service PMI was in line with expectations, manufacturing activity showed a slight slowdown. In the U.S. new home sales rose 627k missing estimates of 643k. The previous month’s figures were revised higher to show 638k print.

The economic data for the day will see the release of the German final GDP figures for the second quarter. Economists forecast no change with the German GDP expected to rise 0.5% during the three months ending June.
Later, in the NY trading session, the U.S. durable goods orders report will be released. Core durable goods are forecast to rise 0.5% by following a 0.2% gain in the previous month. Headline durable goods orders are expected to show a 0.7% decline during the month. This marks a 0.8% increase in the previous month.
The annual Jackson Hole Symposium is expected to start off today. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak today at the event.


EURUSD intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1553): The EURUSD currency pair closed on a bearish note on Thursday. The decline came following the rally in the previous days. The common currency closed back at the recently cleared level of 1.1540. With the daily Stochastics printing a bearish divergence, we expect further declines in the near term. For the moment, the EURUSD is likely to maintain its sideways trend within 1.1626 – 1.1540 region. A breakout from this range could trigger further gains or losses.


USDJPY intraday analysis
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USDJPY (111.45): The USDJPY extended the gains strongly on Thursday and the bullish momentum is expected to continue to push the currency pair higher in the near-term. The main resistance to the upside is seen at 112.18 on the daily chart. On the 4-hour chart, the USDJPY managed to close back above the support/resistance level of 111.13 – 110.85. Any near-term declines are likely to stall back at this level and it would confirm the upside bias in the currency pair.


XAUUSD intraday analysis
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XAUUSD (1187.56): Gold prices turned bearish following the doji candlestick the day before. Although the 4-hour chart currently is signaling a possible bullish reversal, we expect to see gold prices test the 1180.25 level of support. Establishing support here could potentially keep the upside bias intact. The 4-hour falling price is also likely at the risk of price breaking out to the upside. But for this to occur, gold prices will need to form a reversal around 1180.25. To the upside, the resistance level at 1211.50 remains the target.

The U.S. dollar index was seen giving back the gains on Friday, following the speech by the Fed chair Jerome Powell at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. The dollar index fully gave up the gains logged from Thursday. In his speech, Powell said that further tightening of interest rates was appropriate. The Fed chair also noted that there was no clear indication of inflation accelerating above the Fed’s 2% inflation target rate.
Economic data was sparse on Friday. The final GDP report from Germany confirmed that the economy advanced 0.5% in the second quarter. Data from the U.S. showed that core durable goods orders rose just 0.2%. This missed estimates of a 0.5% increase. Headline durable goods orders declined 1.7% which was more than the 0.7% decline that was forecast.

Looking ahead, economic data is light for the day. The German Ifo business confidence report will be coming out. Economists forecast that the German business confidence index rose to 101.9 from 101.7 previously.


EURUSD intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1624): The EURUSD currency pair was seen turning bullish on Friday following the rebound off the support at 1.1540 level. But the daily chart signals a bearish divergence against the previous highs formed at 1.1730. On the 4-hour chart, the EURUSD currency pair was seen closing with a doji pattern alongside a bearish divergence. Therefore, we expect to see some downside price action to prevail. In the near term, the EURUSD currency pair could remain range bound within 1.1626 and 1.1540 levels of resistance and support.


GBPUSD intraday analysis

GBPUSD (1.2855): The GBPUSD currency pair closed bullish last week. The gains came following a doji reversal pattern formed the week before near 1.2740 area. This indicates a potential move to the upside for the GBPUSD. On the 4-hour chart, price action is seen trading alongside the upper trend line of the falling price channel. With the Stochastics showing weak momentum, we expect to see some downside prevail. Watch for GBPUSD to form a potential higher low ahead of further gains. The currency pair could be seen targeting the resistance level at 1.3205.


XAUUSD intraday analysis

XAUUSD (1206.36): Gold prices closed with a strong bullish engulfing pattern on Friday. Price action was seen closing at 1206.00 as a result. However, the daily chart signals a divergence to the Stochastics which could indicate a near-term consolidation. On the 4-hour chart, gold prices breached the outer trend line of the falling price channel. This indicates a potential retracement ahead of further gains. Watch for a higher low to form as gold prices could be seen targeting the next main resistance level at 1219.75.

The U.S. dollar was seen trading on the back foot amid a rather busy day. The economic data from the U.S. showed that the economy advanced by 4.2% during the second quarter. The second revised estimates were higher than the initial estimates which showed a 4.1% increase.
However, other economic data was mixed. The pending home sales index fell 0.7% in July according to data released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

In the European trading session, the Pound sterling managed to get a boost after the EU’s Chief negotiator, Michel Barnier said that he was prepared to offer the U.K a trade deal that was never before offered a third country.
The remarks stoked optimism just a few days after it was evident that the Brexit talks would miss the October deadline.
The economic calendar today will see the release of the flash inflation estimates from Germany and Spain. Germany‘s inflation is expected to ease, while consumer prices in Spain are expected to remain steady.
The NY trading session will kick off with the release of Canada’s monthly GDP report. Economists forecast that the GDP advanced 0.1% following a strong 0.5% increase the month before.
The U.S. Core PCE price index will no doubt generate headlines as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Core PCE is expected to rise 0.2% on the month, advancing from 0.1% the month before. Personal income and spending data are also on the cards.


EURUSD intraday analysis

EURUSD (1.1697): The Euro currency continued to post gains with price action attempting to rebound off the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour session. However, the failure to post higher gains indicates a potential correction in the making. This is also validated by the bearish divergence that is currently formed. The first level of support at 1.1626 could be tested with a potential for the currency pair to fall to 1.1540 in a decline below the initial support.


GBPUSD intraday analysis

GBPUSD (1.3031): The British pound posted strong gains after technical set up from the ascending triangle saw price action breaking past 1.2928. In the near term, the GBPUSD is likely to retest the breached resistance level. Establishing support at this level could indicate further gains to the upside. The next main resistance level is seen at 1.3205 which could be tested in the near term. To the downside, a close below 1.2928 could, however, signal a decline back with GBPUSD likely to trade within the range of 1.2928 and 1.2808.


XAUUSD intraday analysis

XAUUSD (1203.90): Gold prices retreated from a three week high with price action currently posting strong consolidation near the 20-period moving average on the 4-hour chart. Gold prices are likely to extend the short correction toward 1197.50 region to establish support. Forming a base around the support level could potentially pave way for gold prices to target 1219.75. To the downside, a close below the support could push prices lower toward 1180.25.

The U.S. dollar was seen posting a recovery on Thursday. The currency gained amid economic data from U.S. showed that the core PCE price index increased 0.2% on the month. Personal spending data showed a 0.4% increase as expected while personal income increased 0.3% matching estimates.
Data from Canada showed that the monthly GDP numbers stayed flat. This missed estimates of a 0.1% that was forecast.

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Looking ahead, the economic data for the day will see the release of the German retail sales for the month. Retail sales are forecast to fall 0.2%.
The Eurozone’s flash inflation estimates are due later in the day. Headline inflation is forecast to rise 2.1%, the same pace as the previous month. Core inflation is also expected to rise 1.1%, rising at the same pace as the month before.
The NY trading session is relatively quiet with only the Chicago PMI expected to slip to 63.0.

EURUSD intra-day analysis

EURUSD (1.1664): The euro currency closed with a bearish engulfing candlestick on Thursday. This comes after the common currency posted a strong rally over the past few weeks. Price action remains trading just below the main daily resistance level of 1.1730. On the 4-hour chart, price action is consolidating around the 20-period EMA. The immediate support is seen at 1.1626 which could be tested in the near term. A break down below this level could however send the EURUSD lower toward 1.1540 support.

GBPUSD intra-day analysis

GBPUSD (1.3007): The GBPUSD was seen easing back from the strong bullish momentum from Wednesday. Price action is currently trading flat on the 4-hour chart. There is scope for the GBPUSD to retrace the gains back to 1.2928 level to establish support. A retest of this level could renew the bullish momentum as GBPUSD is on track for targeting 1.3205 resistance.

XAUUSD intra-day analysis

XAUUSD (1204.08): Gold prices were seen correcting to the downside after the previous rally saw price rising to a three week high. The retest of the support at 1197.50 indicates a potential reversal that could likely happen. The next main target to the upside is 1219.75 resistance. To the downside, in the event that the support gives way, gold prices could extend lower toward the 1180.25 level.