Plan the Trade

That was a good one ... I saw it but felt it was too quick after the loss and I might start "machine gunning" again, so I rather left it ... I must say the mental issues that pops up with a live account is a beast of a different nature.

Most of us are in sim mode, but what does it help one can trade up a storm in sim mode but then choke up when in live mode ... rather make it a transition over time starting for example with one day and only one live trade and then the rest in sim mode and then increasing it over time as confidence grows.

Just a thought.

How long did it take you to make the transition, Mr D?

Hey unis been trading live for many many many years. What I do is examine how I enter and when I exit buy looking over charts many hours put in and when I find something that works consistently I just look to duplicate what I find. Here's a clue look for supply or demand candle and if it shoots away from it trade the pullback

here's another spot the difference:

'Let's try to explain it a little further...

People keep looking for something that works all of the time, but here's the thing... nothing does! The market mixes it up completely, so what works one moment, doesn't the next.

Now... once you accept that, you can stop going in circles and look for a method, a candle pattern, a phase, a cycle, a formation, whatever, but something that works more often than it doesn't.

Than you have to have the discipline to discard the one's which don't work so often. The problem is that everytime they do, you get hooked on that pattern, cycle etc, it gives false hope and that takes time to work through. Lot's of it.

Each example takes a long time to test, so it becomes a massive learning curve.

Crossover entries, don't even register on this scale. You can choose to continue, but you're wasting your time. End of.

You're better off mastering a pattern, such as a H&S or flagline, channel lines... they will all have failures, but combine them with 123's at strategic places and you will develop an edge. You can guarantee that a pattern that goes on to fail, will look identical to one that worked earlier, right up until you take the entry.

You're still likely to keep trying to improve it though and then it's back to what i spoke of earlier.

That's why we talk about Supply and Demand being the best and most logical approach out there, so save yourself some time and start understanding it now. It isn't anything more than learning to read a chart and decipher when buyers and sellers are likely to enter... join in.'

CG's words not mine. This is why I think having the patience to record your trades over time is the only true measurement of personal success with this. The market does change, but it doesn't mean failure.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is that you can have a 'day off live' but the market will be a different animal today and as such, it will skew the output and consequently that will change the way we interpret things. There are signals you have to remember and stick by, no matter what the market is doing. It's that setting the stop and saying 'y'know if it goes against me, I still stick by my decision'. Easy to say, hard to repeat day in day out.

Not saying sim trading is bad, I won't be doing anything else until I can see my numbers move nicely over the line.

Exactly OJ and just goes to show Harold's experience. Apart from his blip whilst renovating a few weeks ago, he makes it look simple. Everyone else is at varying different positions on the scale between failure and success.

Most people have a successful period and claim to be profitable, but it is something that has to be measured over a far longer timescale. I'm guilty of it myself.

In fact, i've always under-estimated the time factor involved. Things are going in the right direction, but i had a blip again at the end of last week - just when i was gearing up to switch 'Live'... again, i'm reset and yet, i probably shouldn't try to change things too much...

Most people get up, go to work on a Monday and get paid on Friday. They know what they will earn.

It's difficult for most to get their heads around maybe making $200 one day and giving back $100 the next. Your still actually cash positive, but the losses are psychologically very damaging. That's me right now. I'm fairly sure, (although i haven't actually been recording it), but i think i've been reasonably profitable over the past 3 or 4 months... the problem is, those losing streaks knock my confidence each time. I also have to factor in the difference between how i will react 'Live' and suddenly it seems a long way away again...

1 win 1 loss recording live session

'Range, I command thee. Begone!'



+21 I've had enough.

Lol

Short at 7476.50 has been a decent level
Long 7476 @ 10:05:30 was good

I decided to continue in live mode to continue to practice to tame my emotions ... although I ended at -41 I remained calm ... stopped trading at 5 trades, so no overtrading ... I was a bit less cautious with my entries than yesterday so got more hits ... only one obvious mistake and that was not taking the second trade limit order off after it just missed the entry the first time, the next move blew right through my SL.

I now continue trading in sim mode ...

Logged in and recognised the wedge for wave B, missed the turn at exactly the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level (red circle below), as there was no retrace, so had to take an uncomfortable small Demand level;



The evidence is all there, that the drop was corrective and thus we need to go up;

Locked in 54;



Here's the thing... with Elliott Wave, you can not tell if the correction is done and we continue up now for some distance... or.... it is overall large ABC and we have lower to come (exact opposites), thus it was sensible to chase the stoploss tight once we reach prior Supply. Result was +54;

well just 1 win 1 loss uploading video not good action today

More EW (sorry!)

and so further to my above charts, we react at Supply (overall large flat wave B) and so we should print a fresh low.

If you look at my labelling, i'm not expecting much of a pullback and decide to take a hook Short;



Just in case, i'm a subwave count out, i lock in 20 and unfortunately, that's where it ended;



Even though it followed my original standard waves, i still hesitated in case the 4th was bigger... there was no pullback and the train left without for what would have been a lovely trade... hey ho, +74

I agree in principle but my main point is that even though you can trade top notch in sim mode, the emotions of live mode is going to mess with your ability to make decisions and thus affect your results.
At some time you have to open a live account and start trading it with minimum lots or contracts to start handling the emotions. Then, as the results stabilize you push up the lots or contracts.

I agree, although i will add - that you need to be absolutely profitable on demo first. I'm talking making 40+ a day and few blips... for some time, until it becomes routine... then make the switch and keep trading as you've become accustomed too.

There is little point doing it the other way around... using Live trading to gain the experience required for actual success, as the losses will end up crippling you (unless your pot is huge!)

Yes, the emotional part is a huge difference and step up, but Demo will install the robot mentality in the first place.

Picture this scenario... you've been trading demo for 5 years... consistently bagging 200 ticks a week on average. Do you think you would not be able to replicate the same results switching Live, if you had been trading like a machine for the previous 5 years?

Here is something I noticed yesterday. In my post 7000, I spotted what I will call a 'give up bar' It's by the entry I took and then chickened out of. But after this one I just noticed after I finished today, I won't be chickening out if I see another.

I posted my wave count, because I kinda believe in it. But it is a bit voodoo and I never met anyone who could agree on how to count em



Lol, like a shite version of CG's charts

Thursday was a shite trading day for me, i went -30, back to 0 and ended up -32.

Friday i went to +30 and ended up +16 and so was pretty dejected... now if i add todays figure on top of Mon/Tues/Wednesday gains, i would be up 200 odd ticks and yet i feel pretty down about it all... why is that?)

These were the 2 i saw that stuck out

i agree that emotions are part and parcel in trading. BUT....... if you have something that is above average in consistency shouldnt your emotions also shift to that way of thinking? take today my loss came because i bought at wrong place if i had looked a little more carefully i would have recognized it. operator error. But it shouldnt stop me from putting on next trade it taught me to look more carefully. we learn by mistakes and correct them as they come