Price action is dumb, and you're lazy for thinking otherwise | Page 26 | Forex Factory

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Price action is dumb, and you're lazy for thinking otherwise

  • #501
  • Apr 22, 2012 1:36am Apr 22, 2012 1:36am
Quoting SnailRoll
I don't get the whole obsessions with arguing that TA can't predict price. I am a newbies but I thought the whole point of trading is nothing can predict what happens. To be able to predict means being correct 100% of the time. Isn't trading just a game of probability? Yes it can either go up or down so it should be 50/50 but we use TA to find spots of higher probability (>50%) so for it to work it doesn't need to be right all the time just more often than not, assuming at least 1:1 RR.

For example I am learning supply and demand trading but I...
  • #502
  • Apr 22, 2012 4:27am Apr 22, 2012 4:27am
Quoting SnailRoll
I don't get the whole obsessions with arguing that TA can't predict price. I am a newbies but I thought the whole point of trading is nothing can predict what happens. To be able to predict means being correct 100% of the time. Isn't trading just a game of probability? Yes it can either go up or down so it should be 50/50 but we use TA to find spots of higher probability (>50%) so for it to work it doesn't need to be right all the time just more often than not, assuming at least 1:1 RR.

For example I am learning supply and demand trading but...
Except that when a significant price level gets broken how will you know if it is the right price (fair value) unless it gets tested? Learn to spot the significant price levels and you learn to predict price movements.
  • #503
  • Apr 22, 2012 5:08am Apr 22, 2012 5:08am
In my little experience on SD and Price action trading.

In SD method .. there are many levels to pick , it will get confusing long term. SD works yes , but its hard to tell if a level will hold just like any other method. Also you have the lowest risk compared to any other trading method. Here we try to pick a level much in advance and this is what makes trades uncomfortable.

In Price Action, it will show you SD in real time e.g a Pinbar at proper locations. A Pinbar indicates a reaction at SD level. It gives traders more comfort when they are trading using PA. you know exactly where price would go after PA. Yes sometimes it can fail as with any other method.

Understanding both SD and PA is good.
  • #504
  • Sep 27, 2016 4:11am Sep 27, 2016 4:11am
Hi guys,
I would like to invite you to my new thread where I post everyday new intraday trading levels. I know you are interested in price action. I use it also to make my levels (also with market profile and orderflow).
Here is the thread:http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...14#post9162014
You are all welcome there!

Happy trading
Dale
  • #505
  • Aug 4, 2018 5:16am Aug 4, 2018 5:16am
Subscribed opps
  • #506
  • Aug 4, 2018 6:00am Aug 4, 2018 6:00am
Quoting superdezign
Well Now that I have your attention hear this: Using price action as a method of entry/exit is ridiculous, You can't use a single variable to predict itself. Technical analysis falls under the same category of invalidated trading. Every trader I have talked to who is a technical trader has been unable to answer this one simple question: Why does you system work? I can tell you exactly why the way I trade is the way I trade. I can tell you why it works, the principals it is based off of, and why it will remain robust. Every move I make is...
The system Pippro trendpro works , it is robust, reliable and profitable. It works because it trades fundamentals, like interest rates expectations.It uses price action indicators.

Price action works and is profitable, if professionals know how to use it correctly. In fact stochastic indicator is a price action indicator, it has been used by professionals for over 60 years, bank traders use it.There is a lot of research done on Stochastics price action indicator " the professional's indicator".. I have seen back tests and real trading using the price action indicator on internet forums.
  • #507
  • Aug 4, 2018 11:06am Aug 4, 2018 11:06am
Just saw this thread. Yea I was thinking the same thing to myself. What is price action trading? Usually you hear "Price action traders" traders say something like. "I don't use indicators because they lag". But when you look at price action traders chart examples they draw channels and trendlines on their "naked charts". But by the time they have drawn a channel or trendline the trend has been going on for a while. So what is lagging? An indicator or your channel / trendline?
  • #508
  • Aug 4, 2018 11:50am Aug 4, 2018 11:50am
The stochastic price action indicator was back tested against price action educator theories, there was EA made to test all this price action versus stochastics the price action indicator , the professional's indicator.

The professional's price action indicator performed better than the human price action gurus. if live forward testing was done with real money, the EA performance for stochastics would have performed 50% better, due to the negative emotions of the human mind.
  • #509
  • Aug 7, 2018 7:20am Aug 7, 2018 7:20am
I suggest you study this thread. Imo it is the comprehensive thread on this site. Regardless of his trading method (very good) he explains exactly what price action is. He can explain what every candle means. He trades to the right side of the chart reading the information of PA of the left. Watch his video and I dare you to try to argue with PA. Something to strive for.

This video is one of many. It is a slow day trading but his explanation / expectation of PA is spot on. Look for other video's when the market is moving and he hits his mark every time.
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post11318898
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #510
  • Aug 7, 2018 8:54am Aug 7, 2018 8:54am
It's unfortunate but not surprising what happened to this thread. There was a lot of promise and the potential to be a very good thread that could open the eyes of a few who are sure they are trading when in fact they are gambling.Even when faced with the truth they choose to ignore it for a comfortable lie. That's why 95% fail at this business and will continue to do such.

I am willing to bet that if the OP is still around trading his system he has done better than 95% of the people who chose to argue instead of open their minds to the possibilities that they don't know what they don't know.

5% of the people in this thread made valid contributions while 95% made a lot of noise and little to no positive addition,but think they're right lol.
Gee where have I see those percentages before
  • #511
  • Aug 7, 2018 9:08am Aug 7, 2018 9:08am
Very good hindsight charts and hindsight analysis.Very useful when I trade in time tunnels.
  • #512
  • Aug 7, 2018 9:26am Aug 7, 2018 9:26am
The stochastic is making me 5,000 pips a year.It outperforms candle by candle subjective pa.

There is good evidence on Stochastics price action indicator .
  • #513
  • Aug 7, 2018 10:18am Aug 7, 2018 10:18am
After skimming through the thread. It does seem that OP was onto something. But unfortunately, he got shot down by the retail community in general. As another poster commented here, there is lots of close minds on this forum. What we need is for everybody to open up their mind. BUT keep that scepticism in them for when the BS comes. Its kinda ironic that one should be open minded yet sceptical. But in the case of this forum, I guess being open minded is the better of the two for a start.

Here are some good quotes from OP which I feel shed some light to his train of thought and what he is hinting at.

Quote
It is one thing to use indicators, and it is an entirely different thing to know nothing about them.

"Can you even tell me, what RSI is?"
"It uhh measures the relative strength"
"Of what?"
"I.. I don't know"

Quote
I have been asking why... Why does TA work? And all I get back are

1.) You dont need to know everything to trade
2.) It works because it works, so who cares

So no, this is not about my ego, I really am not too worried about being validated here. I was just hoping someone could tell me if there is any logic behind TA or "it just works because it works"

Quote
"As for the pin bars... They mean literally nothing. They would mean something if every market participant was staring at the same chart at the same time and we made all our decisions on the spot, but that is not how it works. "

Quote
If you think just by setting your take profit at a price point 2x the size of your stop loss is from your entry increases your "potential" profit then answer me this...
Why not set it 15X away and then you have a 15:1 ratio!?!??!

You - "Well because it would never hit it"

Me - "What are the odds that it will hit a 15:1 vs your 2:1 and, could be the same, you don't know for sure since I bet you never thought about a 15:1 ratio. And those statistics aren't good enough, why does a 2:1 work better? (if it even does)"

This last one is my favourite

Quote
In a world of probabilities you have to understand certain things..

1.) We can easily be fooled by random events
2.) Anomalies happen, where events that are statistically near impossible occur

For example, when I first started playing poker I thought I was amazing. I took a few hundred bucks up to a couple grand in less than a month.

I was way above my EV curve though, which is essentially how much money I should have won. I chalked it all up to "well Im winning arent I"...
Then I got serious, learned how to play, studied the game, learned...

So a common point OP is trying to make is that most people use a certain method with only surface knowledge of how, why, and when it works. This is a dangerous thing to do as it will lead one to blindly use a method with no thought on the context of the situation or whether it is suited to a particular scenario.
I look for value wherever it can be found
  • #514
  • Last Post: Aug 7, 2018 10:20am Aug 7, 2018 10:20am
Quoting Nivad
It's unfortunate but not surprising what happened to this thread. There was a lot of promise and the potential to be a very good thread that could open the eyes of a few who are sure they are trading when in fact they are gambling.Even when faced with the truth they choose to ignore it for a comfortable lie. That's why 95% fail at this business and will continue to do such. I am willing to bet that if the OP is still around trading his system he has done better than 95% of the people who chose to argue instead of open their minds to the possibilities...
Funny thing- what are indicators based on and how are they programmed? err price action?

There is a story written in the charts and only people who can't read use the kindergarten version ie indicators.

I'm only in "high school" so don't know all but I will take the time learn.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...8#post11318898

It is 2 hours long but you will understand the picture in about 30min. What is 2 hours of study anyway, oh wait there is another chart to put an indicator on.

Don't get me wrong indicators are a great way to learn and I encourage it. Just don't dismiss PA when obviously people beating up on it have no concept of what PA is about.

PA is about order flow, supply and demand, support / resistance, how and why candles are formed in the way they are (big, small, clustered, wicks, larger or smaller than the last etc etc).... When you stare at candles all day isn't it your job to understand the charts?

Before you beat me up you have to watch at least part of video that MR Pip has spent his time making and explain where his reasoning is incorrect. The best trader I have seen and not unafraid to make calls and trade in real time to prove it. He trades the right side of the chart.

Try not to blind yourself or other people by thread names such as this.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
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