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The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

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Technical Analysis Fallacy

Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} All the best old friend. Find your niche and zone. You dont need to move every day, only move when the markets is in your zone. 1.6% is quite a lot for a day actually. But that is good. Well played. Rgds Anyone heard about Freddie too? Any updates?
Thanks very much Ray. It's taken me a few days to get in sync with the rhythm of the market since going live again and there's plenty of hard work ahead I think but I am looking forward to it. Hope all is well with you, cheers.
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} Thanks very much Ray. It's taken me a few days to get in sync with the rhythm of the market since going live again and there's plenty of hard work ahead I think but I am looking forward to it. Hope all is well with you, cheers.
All is well my friend, life is an adventure through the different interesting check points. Thanks

Remember the ground is always ever changing, keep the MM versatile and defensive, dont chase the %, especially when you have the freedom not to.. flow with the market, and always be cautious to change for it is always the change in tempo, however subtle or sudden that kills. So, if in doubt, stay out ! Don't feel bad if it goes your way eventually, it always evens out at best...

if you are going to be on the desk all day, remember to watch that video where master huang do the 5 loosening exercises. it helps heaps... especially with the back and legs.
oh and the many poems and stories here. man, they kept me sane so many times...

Good luck and Good trading to all!

Cheers,
Ray
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
Hello guys! omg when was the last time i posted here?
anyone else buying the try? trade of the year if you can get good price, .. but moving fast. sell swaps 17-25/lot .. very good deal

only concern is liquidity issue, many people closing their doors.. move quick.

take care guys, trade well. god bless

edit:
be very very careful with it, if broker cant clear. you dont get $$ .. some might even kaput

ok, i cant pick it anymore, broker widen me out by too much... storing just a very small pos to pack for swaps.
im off. cya guys..
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
Quoting jest1081
Hello guys! omg when was the last time i posted here?
Hi Jest,
I feel like a pre-impact dino lurking here, lol. Hope you'r doing fine.
when i was here last time...
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} All is well my friend, life is an adventure through the different interesting check points. Thanks Remember the ground is always ever changing, keep the MM versatile and defensive, dont chase the %, especially when you have the freedom not to.. flow with the market, and always be cautious to change for it is always the change in tempo, however subtle or sudden that kills. So, if in doubt, stay out ! Don't feel bad if it goes your way eventually, it always evens out at best... if you are going to be on the desk all day, remember to...
I got off to a rocky start and sustained some losses but I have since recovered them all and am now a little over 11% up. I haven't had a losing day in the last three weeks although I have found it hard to pace the market at times. I only trade GBP/USD and whether this is just a retrace or a change in trend we are seeing at the moment I don't know but it's made life interesting, albeit with limited volatility at times.

I googled Master Huang's loosening exercises as I didn't remember that video. Is this the one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1S78x0fOJo ?

Thanks again for your advice, much appreciated.

Mark
  • Post #57,988
  • Quote
  • Edited Aug 25, 2018 3:23am Aug 24, 2018 11:52pm | Edited Aug 25, 2018 3:23am
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} I got off to a rocky start and sustained some losses but I have since recovered them all and am now a little over 11% up. I haven't had a losing day in the last three weeks although I have found it hard to pace the market at times. I only trade GBP/USD and whether this is just a retrace or a change in trend we are seeing at the moment I don't know but it's made life interesting, albeit with limited volatility at times. I googled Master Huang's loosening exercises as I didn't remember that video. Is this the one: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1S78x0fOJo...
Hey buddy,
Nice to hear from you again. Thats good, at the end of the day, we are only as good as our last trade. August is always quiet month. If you are up 11% for August alone, you would have already out-perform many. Well done. But take it easy.
Sorry I should have elaborated more about pace.. Personally, I find it to be more of a tempo and rhythm.. a pulse of the markets, it will be nice to feel the pulse, but generally, if we are just feeling it, we would be one step behind, right? but if we pre-empting it, then we are predicting which is bad right. Ideally just for me, I think pulsing it too closely is a dangerous thing, because, for all we know, the pulse itself is a mirage. How accurate is the pulse, how objectively can we maneuver the skews when it change quickly, because unless we are pulsing the entire capital markets, pulse can be abit misleading.....
If you have time, a fun thing to do would google or youtube "pulse diagnosis for traditional Chinese medicine" it is interesting because it ties very neatly to the market and have quite a nice look at how we can position ourselves to read them... as in the fx market, it is just part of the overall market, right, sometimes we are late, some times early... more of a inter-market analysis for this, but hey, if its intra day or a mover is coming up it will surely be very very good to know about it before hand, and we can come out with strategies for differentiating market terrains. So, when it comes and hits, we just work the plan.

quite good vid
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2zTd_YwTvo

bid-offer spread dance lol...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6lAKlYTQVKY

Yup, that is the video. Excellent stuff mate.
Mediation is great too, and the kim's game that FTI is always on about, that is a great exercise to do as well.

Also, someone posted this awhile back, its nice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-ttpYe9FgU

It looks like cable will be a mess soon esp with all the uncertainty, if another flash crash/stop trigger bull happen again it will be even more messy...
Good luck in the last quarter, and remember FTI favourite... KISS

rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
Oh how can I forget this... lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXvZTy0BDa0

rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Hey buddy, Nice to hear from you again. Thats good, at the end of the day, we are only as good as our last trade. August is always quiet month. If you are up 11% for August alone, you would have already out-perform many. Well done. But take it easy. Sorry I should have elaborated more about pace.. Personally, I find it to be more of a tempo and rhythm.. a pulse of the markets, it will be nice to feel the pulse, but generally, if we are just feeling it, we would be one step behind, right? but if we pre-empting it, then we are predicting which...
Thanks again for your advice Ray, really appreciate it. I'll definitely have a look at pulse diagnosis later tonight, sounds interesting.

I'm glad I was on the right side when the Barnier news hit the wires earlier or it could have got quite messy for me but as it was, I got a little unexpected bonus today
just got a flash back and thought I say hi hi
Quoting fti
What many traders do not know, or may fail to recognise, is that your success in taming the markets, is comprised of a mix of ingredients. Not so unlike in baking cakes.
I suggest three very important ingredients. One is " Market Structure ", the other is "YOU", then Capitalisation. Of course there are many more components, for the moment these seems of dominant importance, in my humble opinion.
well man, this statement is one thing i cant disagree.
Nice writing.
Profit growth tells you the trader ability.
Here's some bad habits to avoid:

1. Never flip a position unless you are caught in a strong impulse wave against you and you are trading against the daily trend for some reason. At any other time, a rescue is much easier to deal with mentally than flipping (or reversing) your position is. The problem with flipping a position is that if the market starts to go against you again, you have no mental fortitude to deal with it because it is now going the way you originally thought it might and you will want to flip again....and if it's in a distribution phase rather than trending, you could end up flipping yourself to death.

2. If you make a mistake and are left with positions deep under water, don't start searching the news and analysis sites for reasons to stay in the trade.

3. If the market is going against you, don't start looking at support and resistance levels on technical analysis sites and use them to time your rescues. Use your own analysis and reading of the flow.

I'm sure you all know to avoid these habits already but I thought I'd share them in the hope they might help someone one day. I've incurred big losses in the past as a result of all three of the above habits. Fortunately, this time around, I have managed to catch myself in the act of starting to adopt them and avoided making the same mistakes again.
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} Thanks again for your advice Ray, really appreciate it. I'll definitely have a look at pulse diagnosis later tonight, sounds interesting. I'm glad I was on the right side when the Barnier news hit the wires earlier or it could have got quite messy for me but as it was, I got a little unexpected bonus today
Could of been written today...again Barnier's comments had a pretty big impact on the market earlier.
Ed Seykota had a couple rules that apply. 1. Always have well defined system rules on when to enter, take profit and take a loss. 2. Know when to break rule 1.

I'm still working on that second one. - G
Hi everyone, nice to know the blog is still being kept active by some older members, true to FTI's spirit. Wish everyone profitable trading. God bless.
ZZ
Quoting Acs_112
{quote} Could of been written today...again Barnier's comments had a pretty big impact on the market earlier.
Yes, I'd finished trading by the time that happened unfortunately but I had a really good day anyway. I'm looking around for an economical news service because I feel like I'm trading blind at the moment. I can't afford Reuters or Bloomberg at this stage (or ever perhaps!) but I've seen a couple of more affordable options, just not sure how good they are. I don't expect to get the news before the movement but I don't want to sit there for 20 minutes wondering what's happening either.
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} Yes, I'd finished trading by the time that happened unfortunately but I had a really good day anyway. I'm looking around for an economical news service because I feel like I'm trading blind at the moment. I can't afford Reuters or Bloomberg at this stage (or ever perhaps!) but I've seen a couple of more affordable options, just not sure how good they are. I don't expect to get the news before the movement but I don't want to sit there for 20 minutes wondering what's happening either.
twitter is a great source if you know who to follow, bloomberg has a live youtube that streams mediocre mainstream news that, if you dont have music playing, is nice background..
but i think above all, if the news is speaking of it, chances are, its already over on the charts.. just my 2 cents mate.

its ok to be in the dark, i think. for in the dark, you only see what matters.

rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
Quoting ukmanthailan
{quote} Yes, I'd finished trading by the time that happened unfortunately but I had a really good day anyway. I'm looking around for an economical news service because I feel like I'm trading blind at the moment. I can't afford Reuters or Bloomberg at this stage (or ever perhaps!) but I've seen a couple of more affordable options, just not sure how good they are. I don't expect to get the news before the movement but I don't want to sit there for 20 minutes wondering what's happening either.
Options for you:

1) you can get Reuters Eikon for $99 a month through metastock
2) you can get ransquawk headlines only for $50 per month
3) you can get free news analysis from forexlive.com
4) you can get better releases of economic data and a better calendar from tradingeconomics.com (better than fxfactory)
5) you can subscribe to news feeds and good traders posting about news on twitter. This is a brilliant resource
Thanks RelaxRay and EcoTrader, some great suggestions for me to investigate. I know that by the time I hear the news, the move will already be half over but I like to know why it's suddenly taken off rather than having to wait half an hour for a one liner to appear on FXStreet. More timely economic data releases would also be great because there's often a period of 10-15 seconds after a big release when the price is jumping up and down without actually going anywhere and if I knew what the data was, I could form an opinion about what I should do with any open positions I might have, before it's too late.
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