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  • #201
  • Edited 2:21pm Jul 6, 2018 1:25pm | Edited 2:21pm
Quoting Patje
Great again DWE. This all ready makes half up for yesterday https://media.giphy.com/media/DYH297XiCS2Ck/giphy.gif
Thanks, dude! I was focused today and simply wanted to trade well. I was not vengeful or counting pips or dollars, and had no idea how I did today until I closed my charts--thinking only about what I needed to do on each shopping excursion to close each basket of trades positively.
...Made my Broker happy today too, by trading a substantial volume (and adding to my monthly volume rebate, which figures into my trading strategy).

30 minutes after NFP, when there was a clear -U trend. GU and EU had settled a little, and my tiredness showed in hesitation and missing obvious 40+ pips over the next 20 minutes on long EU and GU trades. That tiredness was the result of my anger, frustration and lack of sleep from thinking about my GC long trade fromyesterday that got crushed by Merkel's G comment.

Lack of rest and calmness is expensive

This is the first month that I started making $2k withdrawals to pay bills. Trading now feels more adult and less like entertainment as there is a $100k mortgage and expenses to pay from this job.

Happy to see our Slack chatroom now having regular traders for Tokyo, Frankfort, London and NY openings! I appreciate, enjoy talking with, and learn from all of you guys--and you make it way more fun to get up in the darkness and start trading!
  • #202
  • Edited 2:22pm Jul 6, 2018 1:32pm | Edited 2:22pm
Talking with a struggling trader recently reminded me of one of my early and expensive counter-trend, adding-to-losers techniques. Phil's example and writings helped me to turn the corner, and embrace trends. He's one of the smartest and most competent traders I've met (at a seminar on 2005). Here's a gem about trends:

https://www.forexfactory.com/search....archid=6284931

The trend is your friend (it’s your mind that’s the enemy).
We’ve all heard the sayings, “The trend is your friend until the end,” or “A trend is a trend until it bends.” Trading with the trend, in a trending market, can be one of the easiest routes to profitability. Yet many traders are hesitant to participate in today’s historic trending market. There are three distinct possibilities for this behavior—each one based on mind conditions rather than market conditions.

To recognize that we are in one of the largest trending markets in recent history, we need only consider the following: the GBPUSD has cracked 2 and remained there, the USDCAD dropped below parity for the first time in over 30 years, the EURUSD has broken 1.4 with no hesitation, and the records set by Yen-based pairs are too numerous to list. History does repeat itself, but it could be years before we see another market like this one.

So, why do otherwise competent traders hesitate to take advantage of this historic opportunity? Here are three common mind games that keep traders out of the game.

1. Value trading
Many of us started in stocks or futures, where we were taught to buy low and sell high. The lower an equity went, the better it was because it simply went “on sale.” If we liked the idea of Microsoft at 30, we’d love it at 25. In Forex, this mindset can spell trouble on either side of a trade: it allows us to justify adding to a losing position, yet also paralyzes us from adding to a winning one. Applying the “on sale” mentality to a losing position can just increase the size of the loss. And before we can finish saying, “It can’t go down forever,” an innocent swing trade is suddenly transformed into an “investment.” On the other side, we can keep ourselves from adding to a position that’s performing well because we convince ourselves that the high price can’t possibly continue.

Yet if the internet bubble taught us anything, it was that there’s always opportunity in a trending market, even if that trend is upward. During the heyday of internet trading, many of us used a stock system made popular by William O’Neil, founder of Investor’s Business Daily and inventor of the CAN SLIM system. The “N” stood for “new high.” He reasoned that if a stock isn’t making a new 52-week high, then demand for it isn’t as high as it is for other stocks that are making new 52-week highs. After all, if new highs aren’t being formed and routinely broken, there’d be no trend. While this notion of “buy high” can be a tough pill to swallow, it was routinely proven successful during one of the greatest bubbles in modern history. It worked quite well while the bubble was expanding, and it even worked reasonably well during the collapse, since fewer and fewer stocks made new highs. What we learned from this experience, but often forget to apply to Forex, is that it can be just as profitable to “buy high and sell higher.” In fact, value is relative. And it often seems a lot more obvious in hindsight.

2. Trying to pick exact tops and bottoms
Stories of hitting absolute bottoms and tops may sound cool over dinner with friends, or win the praise of others in internet forums. After all, who wouldn’t like a little street cred for accurately picking the most recent highs and lows? This desire can affect beginning and seasoned traders alike. Beginning traders may easily confuse luck for skill, or seek to build their confidence by proving they’re right about the market. Similarly, seasoned professionals may wish to prove their “expertise” in order to sell more products.

However, the only way to pick a bottom or top is to give up on trading with the trend and start guessing when it will reverse. If a trader’s account is big enough and positions small enough, eventually that trader will be able to say he or she predicted the turn correctly. Remember, even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.

3. Fear of ending in a loss
Sadly, all good trends come to an end. In many cases, that last attempt to participate in a trend will end in a loss. Traders reason that the more times they are right, the more likely they are to take a loss as the reversal draws near. As a result, they become increasingly reluctant to participate in established trends. They begin guessing when the trend will be over and, as the trend progresses, they become less and less inclined to trade. Meanwhile, the trend continues on without them.

It really comes down to a risk:reward decision on a macro scale. Will you risk one of your winners for the chance to participate in an unknown number of winners in the future? The way to combat this is to assume that the last winning position will be donated back to the market when the trend is over. If you’ve won three consecutive times, it’s reasonable to assume that you’ll be able to keep two of them. Six wins under your belt, it’s likely you’ll be able to bank at least five of them. This mentality allows us to continue participating in a trend, rather than sitting on the sidelines. If we can resign ourselves to the idea of donating the last trade, we’ll be more likely to continue participating in the trend until it becomes exhausted.

Typically this mindset is not learned overnight. It’s important to continually condition our minds to fear the pain of missing an opportunity, regardless of the actual outcome, more than the pain of a loss. Ultimately, there are two ways we can ingrain this mindset: never become satisfied with the first and easiest trade of a trend, and remember that the trend will continue until it doesn’t. Yes, that sounds corny, but that is how it works. It’s not our job to guess when that end will happen, however it is our responsibility to make ourselves available to the opportunity. And often, the biggest opportunities come when we trade with the trend.

Phil McGrew
  • #203
  • Jul 6, 2018 3:08pm Jul 6, 2018 3:08pm
Invitation for anyone who has questions about Oanda:

On 23 August I will be sharing dinner with my Broker Account Manager and his boss (from Toronto, ON). If you have any questions about Oanda, please Message me on FF and I'll do my best to get answers for you.
  • #204
  • Jul 6, 2018 3:20pm Jul 6, 2018 3:20pm
Quoting dwe213
Invitation for anyone who has questions about Oanda: On 23 August I will be sharing dinner with my Broker Account Manager and his boss (from Toronto, ON). If you have any questions about Oanda, please Message me on FF and I'll do my best to get answers for you.
great!
lately even retail brokers seem to start to appreciate their clients more and more.
i think it is a welcomed action from them.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #205
  • Jul 17, 2018 11:15am Jul 17, 2018 11:15am
ask them why they insist on sec by sec interest..that shit needs to go
  • #206
  • Edited 1:17pm Jul 31, 2018 11:16am | Edited 1:17pm
Sale beer:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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One morning last week, after spending several frustrating hours in from of the charts, I decided to go out and buy an on-sale 6-pack of sale Craft Beer. I left my profitable basket of trades open and drove to the nearby beer store, paid only $3.18usd and returned home.
After drinking a couple beers my basket went sharply against me. Instead of promptly assessing and fixing the problem, I just opened another beer and thought "they'll come back." That cheap beer ended up being the most expensive 6-pack I ever bought, at over $9000usd. Moral of the story: The Market knows when you've bought cheap beer.
  • #207
  • Jul 31, 2018 11:23am Jul 31, 2018 11:23am
Quoting hilmy83
ask them why they insist on sec by sec interest..that shit needs to go
I agree! I've asked them about it, and my Rep. simply said "that's the way they've decided to do it." It is a huge money-maker for them, as any trades not held past NY close incur zero cost to them, the "interest" that they do pay on just a few pairs is very reduced from what you'd earn with an ECN, and what you end up paying on most pairs is highly inflated.

I appreciate you telling me about the volume rebate! Because of your tip I was able to negotiate a good monthly volume rebate and a spread reduction. I've also got the best Broker-rep. in the business, Terry Finn.

Glad to see you around here again!
  • #208
  • Jul 31, 2018 11:37am Jul 31, 2018 11:37am
Quoting dwe213
{quote} I agree! I've asked them about it, and my Rep. simply said "that's the way they've decided to do it." It is a huge money-maker for them, as any trades not held past NY close incur zero cost to them, the "interest" that they do pay on just a few pairs is very reduced from what you'd earn with an ECN, and what you end up paying on most pairs is highly inflated. I appreciate you telling me about the volume rebate! Because of your tip I was able to negotiate a good monthly volume rebate and a spread reduction. I've also got the best Broker-rep....
Quoting dwe213
{quote} Sure, The schedule: Volume per million | 1M-199M 200M -299M 300M- 399M 400M and more Rebate $ | $5/per M $10/per M $15/per M $20/per M *Please note that we calculate your trade volume a bit differently than most of the brokers do: when you open and close the same 1 M notional value trade, the total volume would count as 2M August (125M) $624. September, (which included a week of massive, flailing overtrading) (595M) looks like $11,900. Nice consolation prize, lol.
The rebates are better than what you previously wrote?
I am currently getting from an IB about 1.4$/lot (14/M) without any negotiation, ... better than what Oanda would offer for my current volume.
  • #209
  • Jul 31, 2018 11:39am Jul 31, 2018 11:39am
June-July Review:
Late June started well. I was making money most days, and was up +10% after several weeks, exercising most days, closing trades by London close, and sleeping well. However, soon thereafter I began trading erratically--making impulsive and too-large trades, not sleeping well, distracted by women problems and drinking too many beers at the wrong times.

Although, with my Broker Rebate included, I ended up making money over this period, my trading was sloppy. Most days I would start with an impulsive, losing basket and then spend the next several hours clawing back my losses by being more selective in making good trades. Just gotta stop that pattern, dude.

I'm planning to take a week or two off to open my new Business Account with Oanda, Pipville, LLC. It was easy to set up this LLC, and it should have tax benefits.

Goals for August include:
Having a consistent sleep, exercise and time-limited trading schedule
Working with a trading partner to focus on 5-minute breakouts
Making more money in Profits than in Rebates
Getting out for a walk or run every morning before trading

If you've read this far I hope some of what I've written in the Blog is entertaining and/or helpful. I'm thankful for the wonderful community of traders here at FF!
  • #210
  • Jul 31, 2018 11:44am Jul 31, 2018 11:44am
Quoting aa4fx
{quote} {quote} The rebates are better than what you previously wrote? I am currently getting from an IB about 1.4$/lot (14/M) without any negotiation, ... better than what Oanda would offer for my current volume.
Above 150m traded (one-way) I'm getting $20 (x 2, round-trip) per million. This month's Rebate will be nearly $13k on 325m (1-way), or to say it another way, 650m x $20.
  • #211
  • Jul 31, 2018 11:50am Jul 31, 2018 11:50am
Quoting dwe213
{quote} I agree! I've asked them about it, and my Rep. simply said "that's the way they've decided to do it." It is a huge money-maker for them, as any trades not held past NY close incur zero cost to them, the "interest" that they do pay on just a few pairs is very reduced from what you'd earn with an ECN, and what you end up paying on most pairs is highly inflated. I appreciate you telling me about the volume rebate! Because of your tip I was able to negotiate a good monthly volume rebate and a spread reduction. I've also got the best Broker-rep....
lol yea. if you can just stay breakeven and continue trading, you pretty much can make a living trading with this broker at a decent size account.

But you'd make waaay more if trading was improved though. I switched over to index futures because it's much more relevant to my trading style (profile volume). since it's regulated, i can get correct volume and cheaper spreads trading it. 1 tick nets me positive..its unbeatable.

but i'm back trading 8/1 after few months off after moving and all of that. So will be grinding it out like the rest of you crazy mofos soon.
  • #212
  • Jul 31, 2018 11:50am Jul 31, 2018 11:50am
Quoting dwe213
{quote} Above 150m traded (one-way) I'm getting $20 (x 2, round-trip) per million. This month's Rebate will be nearly $13k on 325m (1-way), or to say it another way, 650m x $20.
wow, that's fantastic!
I'll have to think about it. Thank you!
  • #213
  • Jul 31, 2018 11:53am Jul 31, 2018 11:53am
Quoting dwe213
{quote} Above 150m traded (one-way) I'm getting $20 (x 2, round-trip) per million. This month's Rebate will be nearly $13k on 325m (1-way), or to say it another way, 650m x $20.
dang 13k? where's my steak dinner?!?, you beat my rebate record..
  • #214
  • Jul 31, 2018 11:54am Jul 31, 2018 11:54am
Quoting aa4fx
{quote} wow, that's fantastic! I'll have to think about it. Thank you!
You're welcome! I had negotiating leverage because I opened my account with a lot of money, and before I deposited more money, they agreed to improve the Rebate slightly. Good luck.
  • #215
  • Jul 31, 2018 12:04pm Jul 31, 2018 12:04pm
Quoting hilmy83
{quote} dang 13k? where's my steak dinner?!?, you beat my rebate record..
May, 2018 was my largest: $29,356.17

Let me know when you want to visit FF again!
Happy trading.
  • #216
  • Jul 31, 2018 12:57pm Jul 31, 2018 12:57pm
Quoting dwe213
{quote} May, 2018 was my largest: $29,356.17 Let me know when you want to visit FF again! Happy trading.
Great to hear that
In the court of lord, only love and devotion is counted...
  • #217
  • Aug 1, 2018 8:00am Aug 1, 2018 8:00am
I'm Demo-trading this week and next until my funds are transferred to my new Business Account.
Happy
  • #218
  • Aug 1, 2018 11:58am Aug 1, 2018 11:58am
Percentage of losing Traders (over an unknown period of time) at various forex Brokers as of July, 2018:
(thanks to Drolph for making this compilation)
Just figure out how to be in the 15% to 30% of winning traders, and you've got a new job.

Ig market 79%
Activtrades 80%
Admiral Markets UK 85%
AxiTrader 75%
Darwinex 69%
Exness 80%
Forex.com 80%
FXCM 79%
FXOpen UK 78%
FxPro 85%
GKFX 82%
Hotforex 71%
IG Markets 79%
JFD 74%
Oanda 77%
Pepperstone 79%
Tickmill EU 73%
Tickmill UK 79%
XM 69%
  • #219
  • Aug 1, 2018 12:19pm Aug 1, 2018 12:19pm
Our job, solving puzzles:
Inserted Video
  • #220
  • Edited 10:36am Aug 4, 2018 9:48am | Edited 10:36am
Starting 6 August, 2018 I will be trading from my new business account, Pipville LLC.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: IMG_20180804_095318.jpg Size: 934 KB


Thanks to Oanda for reimbursing all the wire fees involved in moving money around to get this account opened: Oanda-->Credit Union-->Bank-->Oanda. The entire process took less than three days, including Oanda crediting me for my July rebate--which usually takes about ten days before I see it in my account. It is amazing how quickly things happen when Oanda wants to minimize my time-off.

I'm planning to trade from two hours before NY opens to London close. If you'd like to share trade-setups, feel free to join a small group of us here:

https://join.slack.com/t/pipville/sh...TRmZDQxODkzNzU
Traders are usually there at Tokyo, Frankfort, London and NY open.

Happy weekend!
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