Set and Forget

Week ending 23June18

Another mixed week this week, with some good fluctuations, which is what I like – slow, sideways markets don’t make for interesting trading.

I placed six trades on Sunday, all taken by Monday night, and 5 TPs hit, so pretty much on target. We did dip a little mid-week, but recovered most of it and ended up 0.8% down on equity for the week on the AUD account. That means we are slightly in negative for the month to date, down 0.2%, although this quarter we are still up 6.9%. For 2018 we are showing a 5.8% gain from 01Jan. While the last 12months is still over 20%, that is down on our 30% target. I’m going to need a superb second half of the year to make target, however I’m still very happy with how all is progressing.

Overall, including the NZD funds, we were down 0.4% for the week, although showing a 8.1% gain for the quarter. Given the AUDNZD is still much lower than the start of the year, overall gain YTD 2018 is only 3.3% so far. Still better than the banks here in NZ, but I do want to make more than that!

Current Margin Used is about 29% of Nav, so well within limits. Overall drawdown is 8.7%, a little higher than what has been for several months, but still in green territory for my risk appetite.

Some gains in the CAD against CHF, JYP, and HKD is something I’m looking for over the next few weeks.

Hi Xeniz,

Still watching, still enjoying! Thanks for the info. Can I ask what lot size you are using?

I have my demo set up trading AUD/CHF, AUD/NZD, CAD/CHF, NZD/CAD.

Hi Waltini,

Lot size is determined by number of pips required to meet Take Profit target (different per each currency pair) , as well as the dollar amount (currently 0.15% of Balance per trade) of the Take Profit target. So if the target is at 40 pips, and the take profit $ target is $40, then the lot size is whatever required to meet a $1 per pip gain.

E,g current lot size on AUDNZD is 9200 units, and on CADCHF it is 5850 units, on EURNZD it is 3100 units, on Silver it is 64 units.

Cheers

Six-month summary

Week ending 30Jun18

A superb week this week, with a 4.1% gain in equity in the AUD account, and with the rise in the AUDNZD the overall gain was 5.3%.

With 20 trades already open, there weren’t a lot of new opportunities, and I only placed 4 orders, all of which were taken. By the end of the week, 7 TPs were hit, which is above target, and that leaves 17 trades still open.

The increase this week means that in the AUD account we ended 3.9% up for the month, 11.3% for the quarter, and 10.2% for the first 6 months of the year. IRR for the last 12 months is 25.3%, so still slightly under our 30% target. Margin used is 22.3% of NAV, and drawdown on the account is 6.7%.

Greatest exposure is still with CAD and GBP.

Overall, we’ve had a 4.7% gain for the month, and an excellent quarterly gain of 13.7%, leaving us up 8.6% for the first 6 months. Total drawdown is 5.7%, which I am very comfortable with.

Now here my dilemma - do I do a “reset” now? If I follow my own rules strictly, the answer is no (which is why I haven’t done it yet), but at the same time it would bring everything back to zero, and I will have more TPs hit. I could therefore be foregoing much more profit, but risk would also be greatly reduced as we start to get towards the summer months in Europe (which have tended to be a little slower). That said, it is the resets that are, in my opinion, the key to this “system” remaining profitable, so I will monitor what happens early next week and decide then.

I am also considering increasing the TP target per trade another 10% (from 0.15% per trade to 0.165%)

(Note the difference this week between MyFXBook and Oanda is about $40 - I think this may have to do with the widening of spreads on Oanda for the weekend perhaps?)

Look fantastic, cant wait next post. This inspire me alot.

RESET

I decided to take the opportunity to reset, and closed all my trades yesterday (except Corn, which I couldn't close at the time). Equity was at $20300 in the AUD account, with $2003 in the NZ Funds Account. So the Balance took a big hit (I was just under 7% drawdown on the AUD account), but as I've always said, it is about the Equity, not the Balance. I was up over 11% for the quarter, and this means I now have more Take Profit opportunities. 23 trades were reopened (with 3 already hitting their TP target overnight). Drawdown is now sitting around 0.5%.

The other important change is I have increased my TP target by 10%, to 0.165% per trade (0.825% per week). The highest ever drawdown so far has been just over 13% so there is room to increase the risk a little.

I also deposited another $500 into the NZD account.

nicely done man .

Week ending 07Jul18

A very good week this week. After the “reset” on Monday, I opened another 23 trades, and with the Corn position still open that was a total of 24. When I could, I also closed the corn trade (just before it went up again,,,,Murphys law). Since Monday, I have had 11 trades hit their TP target, well over target, and which leaves me 12 positions still open. Margin used is 16% of NAV. The oldest open trade is 5 days old

On the AUD account, this meant a 1.9% increase in equity for the week, and is now up to 12.3% YTD, while the IRR for the last 12 months is just under 25%.

As the AUD dipped against the NZD this week, the overall gain for the week was 1.1%.

Best of all, equity is currently higher than balance, so no current drawdown on the account. Overall, I’m actually in 0.1% running profit, which is unusual for this “system”. I have showed that as “negative drawdown” and highlighted it in blue.

Given that the MyFXBook isn't accurate, I have transposed the figures to excel and created my own chart (as recommended by Dave in an earlier post). I think it shows a much clearer picture of Balance vs Equity than the MyFXBook chart.

What I have done in the second chart is show when the resets took place, and most interestingly I've highlighted the actual drop in equity from the Equity HWM at the times of highest drawdown percentage. What it actually shows, for example, is then when I had the 13.2% drawdown on the account (as calculated as the difference from Balance to Equity), I had in fact only dropped about 7.5% in equity. Looking at it from this angle, I feel that I could actually increase my risk even more on the AUD account, as the drawdown figure is somewhat deceiving and the risk is less than I originally believed.

Very clear "home made" graphs, and explanation of the drawdown/equity drawdown.
Keep it up, the "ascending"equity curve is quite nice on the eye I have to say!!!!!!

Thanks a lot,
J-F

Week ending 14Jul18.

Another good week this week. 11 orders placed, 10 filled, and 11 TPs hit in total, so well above target. With a gain in Equity of 1.1% on the AUD account, that makes it 3.0% month-to-date. The were quite a few fluctuations during the week, which is always good for trading

With that, gain in Equity YTD is 13.5% on the AUD account, with an IRR of the last 12 months of 25.5% (still a little under the 30% target), with Margin Used at 16% of NAV. There are currently 11 positions still open, the oldest being less than 2 weeks old.

Overall, in NZD terms, the higher AUD meant a 1.9% increase in total, 3.0% MTD, and just under 12% YTD. Total drawdown is 0.6%, and Equity is currently at a new HWM. Everything is going to plan, and I might actually make a withdrawal from the AUD account if the AUD rises a little higher against the NZD.

Week ending 21Jul18

Not a great week this week, with 14 orders placed, all taken, and just 4 TPs hit. So for the week we are down 3.7% on equity, with 21 trades still open, and Margin Used at 33.6% of NAV.

That means we are down about 0.8% for the month, but still up about 9.3% YTD. IRR on the AUD account for the last 12 months is just over 20%, which is acceptable but below the 30% target.

Overall, a 4% drop in total equity with small drop in the AUDNZD back below 1.0900 - it can't seem to get back up to 1.1000. YTD only up about 7.4%, and current drawdown at 3.9%.

Very few orders will be placed Monday given 21 still currently open.

Week ending 28Jul18

An average week this week, with 5 orders placed, all taken, and also 5 TPs hit (making target). Increase in equity on the AUD (and overall) was 0.6%. All pretty standard.

That means we are currently up 9.9% on the AUD account in 2018, (down 0.2% for this month so far), and just 20.5% up over the last 12 months. There are still 21 trades open, the oldest being the Silver trade from 02 July.

Overall, with just a slight gain in the AUDNZD, the overall account in NZD was also up 0.6% for the week, and 8.0% YTD. Total Drawdown (from Balance) is 4.7%, and drawdown from Equity HWM is 3.1%.

Once more, with 21 trades already open, there won’t be many new orders placed this week – as mentioned previously, this method is quite self-regulating in that regard.

A recovery in the GBP would be quite beneficial, as that is currently 18% of total exposure (Margin Used is 32% of the NAV in the AUD account).

Month end 31July18

Overall not too many fluctuations this month, and if the last two years are anything to go by we can expect August to be more of the same, with more sideways movement on a lot of pairs.

We are up 1.2% for the month on the AUD account, so a little under target. That takes us to 11.5% for the first 7 months of 2018, and an IRR of 22.0% for the last 12 months. On both figures we are still below our 30% p.a. target, but it is still an acceptable return.

The AUDNZD has recovered slightly, but remains 100 pips lower than the start of the year, so the overall NZD account has made 9.5% YTD. Total drawdown sitting at 3.9%, with drawdown from equity HWM at 1.7%.

I have added another $500 to the NZD account, which means I have approximately 89% of total funds with the broker in Oz - reducing the broker risk/currency risk a little further.

Let's hope for a crazy August!

Week ending 04Aug18

This week started well, but the GBP fell back again later in the week, so a slight loss in the end, down 0.3% on equity for the week. As it happened later in the week, it means the month hasn’t got off to a good start, down 1.7% for the month to date, and 0.6% for the quarter so far. That means we are up only 9.6% for the 2018 year and we are already in August. With a 30% target for the year, we would want to be about 20% up by the end of August, and I can’t see that happening. IRR for the last 12 months is currently 21.2%.

Overall, on the NZD account, the AUDNZD made good ground this week, almost reaching the 1.1000 mark. That means that on the whole account, we were up 0.3% for the week, although only up 8.4% in 2018 to date in NZD terms.

On the positive side, we were above target on TPs hit this week, with 6 in total, and overall drawdown (from Balance) is sitting in the green zone at 5.7%. Drawdown from the HWM (14Jul) is 3.7%.

There are still 19 trades open, with Silver from 02July being the oldest one. Not expecting much action in August if previous years are much to go on, but with Trump on Twitter and heatwaves hitting the Northern Hemisphere, anything can happen!

Week ending 11Aug18

The equity took a bit of a hit this week, one of the worst weeks for quite some time, down 4.4% on the AUD account. We placed 4 orders this week, all taken, and we had 5 TPs hit. So TPs on target, and Balance increasing nicely, but that’s irrelevant – for me it is all about Equity, and this week it dropped significantly, and leaves us down 6.1% for the month. I wanted some more movement in August, but ideally in my favour, not against me! The drop in GBP has had the biggest impact, as it is about 22% of overall exposure. Margin used in the AUD account is 27.6% of NAV.

So a bit of an indent in our long term equity gains, meaning only a 4.7% gain YTD for 2018, and 17.1% gain in the last 12 months.

On the positive side, the AUDNZD did have some good gains with the RBNZ holding the OCR at the 1.75% and stating it may stay that low until 2020. As a consequence, overall we had a 2.9% drop in Equity, leaving us down 3.0% for the 3rd quarter so far, and up 5.3% YTD for 2018. I wanted to withdraw some of the funds from the AUD account and leave them in the NZD account once the AUDNZD got over 1.1000, but now I will wait for the AUD equity to get a little higher….

Overall drawdown (from Balance) is 10.0%, and drawdown from HWM (on AUD account) is 7.7%. This is also a result of our increased lot size, so I’m comfortable with that.

Hey Steve,

How's the trading going? looking forward to your update... your current DD will just be a minor blip over the long-term...

Best,

Dave

Cheers Dave, it's been a hectic weekend so far, but should be able to update later today. August always seems to be very quiet, this year not much difference to that. Last week was just a small gain, so still down for the month. Not too worried about the DD, I have increased lot size, and have allowed for even a 25%-30%. And I always close all positions at Xmas anyway How's things with you?

Week ending 18Aug18

I’ve just realised that I did not post my update for last week end – fortunately I had taken my screen shots, so quick a quick update now.

I placed 6 orders on 12Aug, all were eventually taken, and we had 4 TPs hit for the week – just under our target of 5.

It was a slightly negative week on the AUD account, down 0.1% for the week, but a weaker AUD dollar meant we ended up 0.7% down on Equity over all.

To date that means we are up 4.6% in 2018 (both in the AUD account and overall account, as the AUDNZD is at the same level as the start of the year). So it is proving a year of lower returns than in the past. Total drawdown is at 10.4% (from Balance). As mentioned before, that is just in “yellow territory” and acceptable. Highest ever has been 13.2%, and that was with smaller % lot sizes too. From our High Water Mark, we are down 7.8%.

Once more, not expecting too much more movement over the next few weeks.

Week ending 25Aug18

Another relatively slow week this week – August is living up to expectations in that regard. Only 3 orders placed this week, 2 taken, and only 1 Take Profit hit. It’s been some time since I’ve had such a slow week. On the AUD account, we had a small gain (0.6% in Equity) but that still leaves us down 5.6% for the month. That leaves us up for 2108 with a 5.3% gain, and a IRR over the last 12 months of 18.9%. It doesn’t look I will have many orders placed this week either.

Overall, with another drop in the AUDNZD (when will they stop musical chairs in the Prime Minister’s office?) we were only up 0.1% for the week, and are still down 3.7% for the quarter. In the first 8 months of 2018, we are up 4.6%.

Drawdown is sitting at 10.2% overall, just in the "yellow" zone, but drawdown from HWM on the AUD account is only 7.2%.

Still expecting some slow weeks to come, with few orders to be placed.