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Learning From Unsuccessful Mouteki Trades - The Search for Filters...

  • #61
  • Oct 5, 2006 1:13am Oct 5, 2006 1:13am
Quoting trader416
llambert3, I don't see a short there ??
Also, what is that one simple filter ?
I think he means to use no filter at all. Simple and pure mouteki, with no ingredients.
  • #62
  • Oct 5, 2006 3:41am Oct 5, 2006 3:41am
I also have the low win rate problem (below 20%). The most situation are trend reversal after break signal, or price go the right way for a while, but cannot reach TP then touch SL.

I will post my setup to see is some thing wrong there, here is a EURCHF failed setup:

http://www.raytracy.com/fxsetup/EURC...ailed-sell.gif

I use InterbankFX data feeded as GTM+0 time zone.

BTW, I would like to do a lot of backtest, but I just try to using MT for few days, and trying to understand the MQL4 language in beginning. Is there any out-of-box EA which I can use for backtesting Mounteki method? Can I launch the indicator .mq4 as EA for backtesting?
- Ray Tracy - Novice forex trader from GMT+8
  • #63
  • Oct 5, 2006 5:00am Oct 5, 2006 5:00am
Quoting raytracy
I also have the low win rate problem (below 20%). The most situation are trend reversal after break signal, or price go the right way for a while, but cannot reach TP then touch SL.

I will post my setup to see is some thing wrong there, here is a EURCHF failed setup:

http://www.raytracy.com/fxsetup/EURC...ailed-sell.gif

I use InterbankFX data feeded as GTM+0 time zone.

BTW, I would like to do a lot of backtest, but I just try to using MT for few days, and trying to understand the MQL4 language in beginning. Is there any out-of-box EA which I can use for backtesting Mounteki method? Can I launch the indicator .mq4 as EA for backtesting?
The candle which opened below the trendline; this candles open was higher than the breakout bar's close. Maybe this could alert you?
  • #64
  • Oct 5, 2006 5:36am Oct 5, 2006 5:36am
Everyone wants a perfect system... doesn't exists.. There will be losses in ANY system..But to quote "Mouteki system " for application of entry pionts ...

the downside once a four hour candle has opened below the demand line. It is key to become accustomed to this technique because price usually reacts quickly to the downside once a candle has opened beneath the demand line. Valuable pips will be lost if the trader does not react quickly in many cases.

The key word here is ONCE ..
That said alot of 'failed trades ' on the thread.. was entered with a candle that DID NOT open below/above the TRENDLINE... Just a thought.

Happy learning..
  • #65
  • Oct 5, 2006 5:45am Oct 5, 2006 5:45am
Quoting trader416
llambert3, I don't see a short there ??
Also, what is that one simple filter ?
Actually I didn't mean just using Mouteki. I can't post a chart right now, and maybe you didn't see the short because you are in a different time zone, but there was a short Mouteki signal yesterday. The candle opened BELOW the demand line, BUT it never went lower than the prior candle. That is one of the filters to look for. I am just saying to me that one filter looks to be a good one all by itself really.

We'll keep looking to see if the filters really mean anything in forex. I had noticed prior to the filters being posted that if a long run produced the next candle under/over the tl, it may not be a good time to trade, but that isn't the case always. However, it appears the filter I just mentioned above usually works, but I haven't backtested yet.

Again, we can't be right all the time.
  • #66
  • Oct 5, 2006 5:48am Oct 5, 2006 5:48am
Quoting TheWicker
The candle which opened below the trendline; this candles open was higher than the breakout bar's close. Maybe this could alert you?
I think again, this is another perfect example. It opened, but didn't go lower than the prior one.
  • #67
  • Oct 5, 2006 8:14am Oct 5, 2006 8:14am
Quoting llambert3
We are only trying to improve our trades based on a great method that Mouteki decided to share. We do have to accept losses and try to get bigger gains, I agree. Since Mouteki can't or decided not to share exactly the system he uses, we must try to better our trades for ourselves. I see nothing wrong with that. We noticed, and some pointed out, that some of Mouteki's charts he ignored some points on the charts and why he possibly did that, and even some reversals. Maybe he can't share that because he is getting paid for his strategy somewhere else, I don't know. I haven't read that from him. Maybe we are test subjects to see who eventually gets it..LOL

However we decide to use Mouteki's strategy at this point is up for grabs. And here on this great forum, we are sharing anything we can find to filter out bad trades. We can't win them all, that is a fact. We are just looking at the trades we lose to see if there was a reason behind it. Maybe it is news, but maybe it is something else Mouteki couldn't or decided not to share. That's all.

After a year of fighting and looking for a strategy to help me trade, this is the only one that gave me hope. Just responding to why we are doing what we are doing, at least in my mind anyway. Certainly not trying to be rude in my post, so please don't take it that way.
Nothing wrong in wanting to improve. I agree with that.
I think the ultimate filter is the personal discretion. By seeing the signal you can decide in less than 3 seconds if it's a good trade or not. I think that comes with time. Play your money, feel each trade, be a human being not a robot and think, make decision, use your discretion, DO NOT follow a system blindly.
Let me give you some example where you can decide, not execute blindly a trade:
- don't run after break outs, let them come to you
- If before the break out it was a big move in the break out direction, don't trade. What's big? You have to decide.
- Chose a point even if it has 1 candle in the left/right within the conditions, if the chart looks good for a trade in the direction of a break out. What's good? You have to decide
-modify your SL, TP if you can find close some support/resistance
- look at the chart, decide, don't get out to soon even if the target is hit, let the profits runs
- it's a simple strategy, use simple filters, like overbought/oversold, divergence, support/resistance. These work on any strategy if you know how to use them, find the right indicator with its settings.
- you can enter the moment you had a break out or you can apply the same rules on 15 min chart to enter, but of course only in the 4h break out direction.

Let me show you a break out that can look nice, but it doesn't. I'm not saying that it can't work, but i wouldn't trade it because nothing else sustains it.

With the respect for everybody, it's DeMark strategy, presented to you by Mouteki.
Attached Image
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #68
  • Oct 5, 2006 8:54am Oct 5, 2006 8:54am
Could this have been a failure because the open candle above the trendline didn't go higher than the previous? Even though the next candle (which fooled me) went higher? Possibly. I won't take another trade like this, but at least mine was a hedge against the gbp/usd, so it isn't all that bad.. HEE HEE

http://picnac.com/images/7199eurusd.gif
  • #69
  • Oct 5, 2006 9:09am Oct 5, 2006 9:09am
LOL,
it failed because it failed. You can have all the confirmation and can fail.
You might trade with no confirmation and you can have a winner.

For me it didn't loooked good... The same way it went down it could have went up.


Quoting llambert3
Could this have been a failure because the open candle above the trendline didn't go higher than the previous? Even though the next candle (which fooled me) went higher? Possibly. I won't take another trade like this, but at least mine was a hedge against the gbp/usd, so it isn't all that bad.. HEE HEE

http://picnac.com/images/7199eurusd.gif
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #70
  • Oct 5, 2006 9:14am Oct 5, 2006 9:14am
If you miss the golf ball, you missed! Don't blame the wind, don't blame the sun, don't blame the sand!!

For all you know, when you landed that perfect shot, your club didn't even touch the ball!

J/K
I am JuMPeR.
  • #71
  • Oct 5, 2006 9:28am Oct 5, 2006 9:28am
I'm short the GBPUSD, and long the USDCAD, stupid I know, but I'm demoing right now trying to figure out the meaning of life, etc etc etc. Here's what I've found, and it is rather significant I feel.

Trendline breaks. I have been looking at them. There are different types of break. For now, lets just categorize them into two families.

The first, and in my opinion, more unreliable break, is the horizontal break. In this scenario, price almost gets 'pushed' over the trendline, but is either moving in a horizontal direction, or is moving in a direction opposite to the break. Perfect example, the USDCAD break, this morning. This trade is -24 pips right now. Notice how price was trending up in the 12 hours preceeding the break, and there is no conviction in the move across the trendline:
http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a2.../aausdcad1.gif

The second family of trendline breaks are always welcome. They are vertical breaks. This is where price, like a knife, pierces the trendline in a manner which is convincing. Usually the break candle is a continuation of a previous move, though not always. What is important is that instead of simply being pushed over the trendline, price appears to crack it with certainty and resolve. Picture, words, thousand, here it is, the GBPUSD break today, right now up 40 pips:

http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a2.../aagbpusd1.gif

Thoughts, as always, are welcome.
  • #72
  • Oct 5, 2006 9:29am Oct 5, 2006 9:29am
Quoting dof
LOL,
it failed because it failed. You can have all the confirmation and can fail.
You might trade with no confirmation and you can have a winner.

For me it didn't loooked good... The same way it went down it could have went up.
Apparently you guys are ignoring the heading of this thread. I am not soul searching here. This thread was created for those of us that are trying to come up with a better system. You can just ignore our posts on here if it makes you happy.
  • #73
  • Oct 5, 2006 9:35am Oct 5, 2006 9:35am
Quoting Horace Kent
I'm short the GBPUSD, and long the USDCAD, stupid I know, but I'm demoing right now trying to figure out the meaning of life, etc etc etc. Here's what I've found, and it is rather significant I feel.

Trendline breaks. I have been looking at them. There are different types of break. For now, lets just categorize them into two families.

The first, and in my opinion, more unreliable break, is the horizontal break. In this scenario, price almost gets 'pushed' over the trendline, but is either moving in a horizontal direction, or is moving in a direction opposite to the break. Perfect example, the USDCAD break, this morning. This trade is -24 pips right now. Notice how price was trending up in the 12 hours preceeding the break, and there is no conviction in the move across the trendline:

The second family of trendline breaks are always welcome. They are vertical breaks. This is where price, like a knife, pierces the trendline in a manner which is convincing. Usually the break candle is a continuation of a previous move, though not always. What is important is that instead of simply being pushed over the trendline, price appears to crack it with certainty and resolve. Picture, words, thousand, here it is, the GBPUSD break today, right now up 40 pips:

Thoughts, as always, are welcome.
I didn't take the loonie because the line was pretty steep AND all the candles leading to the break were bullish. Discretion nudged me not to take that trade. I am short the cable however, for reasons similar to yours.
I am JuMPeR.
  • #74
  • Oct 5, 2006 9:37am Oct 5, 2006 9:37am
Quoting Horace Kent
I'm short the GBPUSD, and long the USDCAD, stupid I know, but I'm demoing right now trying to figure out the meaning of life, etc etc etc. Here's what I've found, and it is rather significant I feel.

Trendline breaks. I have been looking at them. There are different types of break. For now, lets just categorize them into two families.

The first, and in my opinion, more unreliable break, is the horizontal break. In this scenario, price almost gets 'pushed' over the trendline, but is either moving in a horizontal direction, or is moving in a direction opposite to the break. Perfect example, the USDCAD break, this morning. This trade is -24 pips right now. Notice how price was trending up in the 12 hours preceeding the break, and there is no conviction in the move across the trendline:


The second family of trendline breaks are always welcome. They are vertical breaks. This is where price, like a knife, pierces the trendline in a manner which is convincing. Usually the break candle is a continuation of a previous move, though not always. What is important is that instead of simply being pushed over the trendline, price appears to crack it with certainty and resolve. Picture, words, thousand, here it is, the GBPUSD break today, right now up 40 pips:



Thoughts, as always, are welcome.
Horace I don't see a usd/cad trade setup. Can you post your chart?
  • #75
  • Oct 5, 2006 9:39am Oct 5, 2006 9:39am
Hi llambert,

You dont see the USDCAD in post 71?

Quoting llambert3
Horace I don't see a usd/cad trade setup. Can you post your chart?
  • #76
  • Oct 5, 2006 9:40am Oct 5, 2006 9:40am
Quoting llambert3
Apparently you guys are ignoring the heading of this thread. I am not soul searching here. This thread was created for those of us that are trying to come up with a better system. You can just ignore our posts on here if it makes you happy.
Dude, relax
you got it wrong. You said: it failed BECAUSE... That was funny for me.

I gave you some examples of filters. The idea was that you can have some good filters and still fail. First you have to know this, admit this otherwise you will go crazy in your search.

For all my trades I use 3 filters: divergence/hidden divergence, overbougth/oversold and feeling.
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #77
  • Oct 5, 2006 9:40am Oct 5, 2006 9:40am
Quoting Horace Kent
Hi llambert,

You dont see the USDCAD in post 71?
Oh, I thought you were posting examples from the past. Plus you didn't title them... Please forgive...
  • #78
  • Oct 5, 2006 9:42am Oct 5, 2006 9:42am
Sorry if they're not clear.
Quoting llambert3
Oh, I thought you were posting examples from the past. Plus you didn't title them... Please forgive...
  • #79
  • Oct 5, 2006 9:44am Oct 5, 2006 9:44am
Quoting dof
Dude, relax
you got it wrong. You said: it failed BECAUSE... That was funny for me.

I gave you some examples of filters. The idea was that you can have some good filters and still fail. First you have to know this, admit this otherwise you will go crazy in your search.

For all my trades I use 3 filters: divergence/hidden divergence, overbougth/oversold and feeling.
I'm not upset or uptight, just I feel like you are trying to say that I am trying to come up with excuses instead of admitting defeat. I admit defeat and took the loss. It is over with. I only posted the chart on here to see if that indeed could be another filter... I said "could this have failed BECAUSE" it was a question. It wasn't a statement.

It is ok. I am done with trying to explain. I will continue to post my guesses in the "Search for Filters" thread, and you can respond how you choose. No more offense to anything, even JUMPER>>>> but we're friends anyway since he lives in Europe somewhere.
  • #80
  • Oct 5, 2006 9:46am Oct 5, 2006 9:46am
Someone called me?
I am JuMPeR.
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