Islander and Medici trade the European open

Hi HB - thanks for dropping in

No, time for a change. When I changed to Dax its first hours range after XO averaged 113 pts and the 2nd hour 94 points. Now the Daily average is ~100 pts

Regards

This thread developed over time as Medici and I tried different ideas. The last few pages cover quite a time span and should give you my current ideas which are now focused on tradig € / US $

I'll try to post a little more

Posted elsewhere around FO

and more recently

All T/Ls have the same + / - angles

That early HV Hammer was the key

What's your take on risk management? How much do you risk per trade? Also, do you set your SL to BE at some amount of positive pips?

€ put in a Lower High after LO - o'night H 1.1750 - and so its been a sell since.

Price now filling that WRB HG

As new European rules come in next week these will probably serve as my new risk guide and even make my Three Dragons idea redundant....TWT

My initial SL is either 10 or 15 pips depending on how I am viewing my entry. Likewise I want to get to BE + 1 as soon as possible, again based on my view of the action and volumes on both M1 & M5 charts.

Right now, I am flat after that VHV M5 hammer at a new low, 2 candles ago. On M1 there was a HV, bullish engulfing candle

Tom Williams always said he viewed "levels" as hedges (the garden type) and thus the current low may be viewed as a hit on the **85 SS

The recent action in € / $ on my M5 chart..

1st Shooting Star. Ultra High Volume, long wick = plenty of Profit Taking / Selling. Price moved under today's DP, but failed to push under the developing POC level. and then bounced up into a slightly Higher High in the :

2nd Shooting Star on much lower volume = No Demand to go higher.

So from that high, price is now heading down towards its LO level, some 33 pips lower.....that's more than half of today's range.....

Edit: LO Level hit in the 15:50 low volume hammer....of course, that's also the 50% retrace


From Wikipidia:
"In technical analysis, a shooting star is interpreted as a type of reversal pattern presaging a falling price. The Shooting Star looks exactly the same as the Inverted hammer, but instead of being found in a downtrend it is found in an uptrend and thus has different implications. Like the Inverted hammer it is made up of a candle with a small lower body, little or no lower wick, and a long upper wick that is at least two times the size of the lower body.
The long upper wick of the candlestick pattern indicates that the buyers drove prices up at some point during the period in which the candle was formed but encountered selling pressure which drove prices back down for the period to close near to where they opened. As this occurred in an uptrend the selling pressure is seen as a potential reversal sign. After encountering this pattern traders often check for a lower open on the next period before considering the sell-signal valid.
As with the Inverted hammer most traders will see a longer wick as a sign of a greater potential reversal and like to see an increase in volume on the day the Shooting Star forms."

Bought mid Frankies Hour above confluence of DP, yest close & POC. Out for a couple on trail and same again on pull back....chart later

Edit: Dont like the smaller HV green candle on M5 at 7:25. SL to +2

Edit: SL hit - a couple more banked. Now wait for data

Edit: Data OK, push down under above levels in a VHV green M5 hammer so buy again

Early a couple of buys as price moved above yesterday's close and the DP.

After the German Data at 8:00 there was a push down in a UHV green Hammer - so buying by SM

In the 9:20 candle - a WRB Marabuzo with average volume - there was No Follow Through = Bank

Now wait for the US Traders - European lunchtime

This afternoon's action.....Yest Cls / DP held again after US Opn, then pricewent up to new high with higher volume around the highs before that support area was broken in a red HV WRB.

Chop for awhile before another WRB on a UHV push down that hit that price projn around the European close...

Well done to any who kept trading after the UK close at 16:00 GMT. The good news from Trump & Junker gave a nice 60 + rally up to the fib expn at T2 right into that supply zone...now waoting for LO

ECB & Draghi today

I have decided to share my simplified use of Tom Williams's Volume Spread Analysis for which I use the Better Volume indicator which I posted here some time ago - click on the paperclip above if you need it.

Check the signals generated during yesterday's US Session on my M5 € / US $ chart attached - hint, think of them as an alert to watch what happens next

The ATR indicator under the Better Volume is the standard MT4 one, with Period = 1, thus showing the Spread of each candle - the other part of VSA.....KISS

Better volume Forex indicator: peculiarities of work

The main feature of this indicator is that it takes into account several typical combinations of candles and volume quantities. The indicators for each signal are color coded for your convenience: Islander’s colors
0 Red: a combination of a bullish candle with a large spread and large volume. Characteristic of the origin of the bullish and completion (or correction) of the bearish trends
1 Dark Grey: indicates the absence of signals
2 Dark Orange: used to label the candles with very low volume. The decrease in volumes suggests that market makers have left the market, and hence either the trend is played out or the completion of the correction is nearing;
3 Dodger Blue: Represents a combination of a small candle and a large volume = a battle between Bulls & Bears look for the winner
4 Lime Green: often appears at the origin of a downtrend, as well as during the correction or completion of a bearish trend. It is expressed as a combination of a larger bearish candle and a significant volume on the chart
5 Magenta: a rare signal, expressed as a row of candles with a large volume on the chart.
6 Grey: The moving average as set in the inputs tab.

Inputs Tab Settings
No of bars = how many bars back are drawn
MA=Period - for the Grey MA line drawn on the indicator
Look Back: the period used for comparing size of bars etc. The lower the value, the more signals will be generated.

HI, thanks.
I have some versions of it. Did you change the histogram colors to your own?
Can you also share your inputs? Would same me some time to discover them
Thanks.

Guess you have not yet had time to read ALL of my post

Lookback = 12; MA = 10

This morning's action....easy to see that LH after LO and price stay under the down trend line till it hit my Price Projedtion after that alert from BV.

The red shooting star closed below the TL so sell again. Failed to make a new low, so out for a couple.

Note the blue higher vol, narrower range candle.....buy > the TL....trail tightish SL as vols lower...

No Sir, i didn't.
but i will.

Thanks.

The initial move up thru yest cls stalled as price got into the consolidation from yest pm.

Now its turned down ....will yest cls hold or is price heading for that demand zone....TWT

I will post my M5 chart later

A sell after LO as price turned in that consolidation zone for a 30+ pips run south.

The WR VHV marubozo at 8:20 was a good place to bank some profits and I sold the pull back. The next push down was weak and only managed to get a couple of pips lower. My tightened trail after that HV smallish red candle at 09:40 took me out for a couple.

Alerts set and AFK till towards US Open