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Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

  • #1,241
  • Oct 5, 2006 12:07am Oct 5, 2006 12:07am
Thanks for bringing this point up, FXAsia. I agree that todays low of 1.2665 on EUR/USD is the end of wave B of wave 4 and it is now on the way to wave C to complete Wave 4.

Whether this is correct or not, this is also the most conservative assumption, as it prevents one from shorting the pair until it ascends to near the top of Wave A or higher.

This I don't fully understand: "Others have todays low as subwave 1 of an already formed wave"

Do you mean they think Wave 4 is complete, and the new Wave 1 downwards has already begun?
  • #1,242
  • Oct 5, 2006 1:03am Oct 5, 2006 1:03am
Thursday October 5 at 2:00 ET

TS# 197 Buy EUR/JPY at 149.27

Stop is 148.93

Target #1 is 150.50

 Risk is 37 pips

Reward is 120 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 3.2 to 1

For research purposes only.

___________________________________________________

Previous trade comment:

EUR/JPY update for Wednesday October 4 at 3:00 ET <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Wednesday October 4 at 3:00 ET

EUR/JPY, according to our system, can reverse its upwards trend at either 150.50, or, more likely, 151.00 to 151.10. The safest strategy is to set the limit to short EUR/JPY at 151.00 with a stop at 151.57.

The target is far off, below 148.00, so a 60 pip risk is not a problem. If the upwards trend reverses at 150.50 instead of 151.00, then we can still enter the trade during the first upwards corrective wave, at the top of the minor Wave 2.
  • #1,243
  • Edited 2:36am Oct 5, 2006 1:45am | Edited 2:36am
Quoting itme
Thanks for bringing this point up, FXAsia. I agree that todays low of 1.2665 on EUR/USD is the end of wave B of wave 4 and it is now on the way to wave C to complete Wave 4.

Whether this is correct or not, this is also the most conservative assumption, as it prevents one from shorting the pair until it ascends to near the top of Wave A or higher.

This I don't fully understand: "Others have todays low as subwave 1 of an already formed wave"

Do you mean they think Wave 4 is complete, and the new Wave 1 downwards has already begun?
Good morning Itme. I notice that you seldom "disect"/analise the CABLE like yesterday's trade as an example. Is it because you have not had a signal or do you prefer not to deal with the Cable?

I have been trading for 5 years and find your analysis enhancing my understanding of Elliottwaves, etc. However, as I only trade the Cable, I am a little "frustrated" not to be able to learn from the pro.

Also could you please reply to my question about CLUSTERS (post 1220) which I know as "Confluences as per Joe DiNapoli"? Thanks and best trading.
Hercs
  • #1,244
  • Oct 5, 2006 2:34am Oct 5, 2006 2:34am
Hi itme

Do you have a view on the timeing for the Eur/cad short? any change to your last post re the above?. Thankyou in advance.

Pipnic
  • #1,245
  • Oct 5, 2006 2:35am Oct 5, 2006 2:35am
Quoting itme
Thursday October 5 at 2:00 ET

TS# 197 Buy EUR/JPY at 149.27

Stop is 148.93

Target #1 is 150.50

Risk is 37 pips

Reward is 120 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 3.2 to 1

For research purposes only.

___________________________________________________

Previous trade comment:



EUR/JPY update for Wednesday October 4 at 3:00 ET <HR style="COLOR: rgb(209,209,225)" SIZE=1> <!-- / icon and title --> <!-- message --> Wednesday October 4 at 3:00 ET


EUR/JPY, according to our system, can reverse its upwards trend at either 150.50, or, more likely, 151.00 to 151.10. The safest strategy is to set the limit to short EUR/JPY at 151.00 with a stop at 151.57.

The target is far off, below 148.00, so a 60 pip risk is not a problem. If the upwards trend reverses at 150.50 instead of 151.00, then we can still enter the trade during the first upwards corrective wave, at the top of the minor Wave 2.
Hi itme

Does this trade comment over-ride the previous trade (post 1205)

Quote
Originally Posted by itme
Hi Ploy001,

Our system indicates that the most likely reversal point for the current upwards trend is about 150.45, after which EUR/JPY will reverse and decline precipitously towards about 147.50, and possibly lower.
  • #1,246
  • Edited 7:51am Oct 5, 2006 7:20am | Edited 7:51am
Good morning, Hercs

Regarding your comment on fibo clusters, I cannot add anything to your comment, as my knowledge of them is virtually non-existent. If you or anyone else who is knowledgeable about them and has applied their knowledge in practise would share with us what they found, then I would be appreciative. As far as I am currently aware, they are another 'blunt instrument", but I would be delighted to be proven wrong.

Regarding GBP/USD, I personally prefer it to EUR/USD, as it often moves twice as much, however since I am studying right now with a teacher who exclusively trades EUR/USD, because he finds that his system works better on that pair, I am focussing for the present on this currency pair more than GBP/USD. In the past I gave my special attention to GBP/USD, and felt that this attention was well rewarded. If you have any particular comments or questions regarding GBP/USD that pertain to this trading experiment, then please offer them.

I am grateful for your attention and interest in this thread, and invite your comments when you have something relevant to add at any time.

___________________________________

"Good morning Itme. I notice that you seldom "disect"/analise the CABLE like yesterday's trade as an example. Is it because you have not had a signal or do you prefer not to deal with the Cable?

I have been trading for 5 years and find your analysis enhancing my understanding of Elliottwaves, etc. However, as I only trade the Cable, I am a little "frustrated" not to be able to learn from the pro.

Also could you please reply to my question about CLUSTERS (post 1220) which I know as "Confluences as per Joe DiNapoli"? "
  • #1,247
  • Oct 5, 2006 7:48am Oct 5, 2006 7:48am
Hi Pipnic,

Regarding the timing of the opportunity we refered to here:

" Our system indicates that the probable top of this upwards corrective wave on EUR/CAD lies between 1.4350 and 1.4360."

It should not be long now, as it seems we are in the fifth mini-wave of the fifth upwards wave. So it is in our sights, though it could take another 12 hours or so. We shouldn't short EUR/CAD before EUR/USD is at or near to its trend highs, or unless USD/CAD shoots strongly up, and reaches a probable top.
  • #1,248
  • Oct 5, 2006 8:05am Oct 5, 2006 8:05am
Hi Jacko,

Thanks for your question about EUR/JPY. These two pieces of information are compatible. One (the first) is a prediction, which I do to test the predictive capacity of our system, and to help to anticipate and prepare for a potential trade set-up. The other is an actual formal trade signal. Predictions can change as the situation develops, or our analysis improves. Trade signals should be based on solid evidence as close as possible to the time of the entry.

Note that EUR/JPY just came down to 149.08. This doesn't negate the premises upon which our buy trade signal is based, just indicates that our small scale Elliott Wave count was incorrect. The stop is at 148.93
  • #1,249
  • Oct 5, 2006 8:18am Oct 5, 2006 8:18am
hey itme I think EURJPY may go down to between 148.77 and 148.30 from looking at daily chart before making strong run in 3 wave up to 151.90http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon12.gif
  • #1,250
  • Oct 5, 2006 8:50am Oct 5, 2006 8:50am
Hi Fixme1too,

What you say may be correct. However, we may squeak past my stop here and head up now to 151.00 to 152.00. I checked my 1 day chart, and am consoled that a reversal now is possible. It would be the third wave of the last or fifth wave up.

"I think EUR/JPY may go down to between 148.77 and 148.30 from looking at daily chart before making strong run in 3 wave up to 151.90"
  • #1,251
  • Oct 5, 2006 9:26am Oct 5, 2006 9:26am
Much appreciate your reply, Itme.

I have studied with Joe DiNapoli and if you are interested in futhering your knowledge on Fibonacci, his work is highly regarded, some say he is the "master". He regards the "confluence" of the 38.2 and 61.8 levels as extremely strong and we have seen this on the GBP/USD 4HR_chart on the 3rd of October @ 06h00 EST candle where it stopped and reversed @ a price of 1.8895.

His book is: "Trading with DiNapoli Levels"

Studying at present may not allow you to get his book, but maybe later in your studies it may be a good idea to read / study it. Fairly easy read.

I am a daytrader and my training was totally inadequate when I started out, so my knowledge about predicting the markets are non-existent. Hence me being here and I want to learn as much as I can from you. Thank you for sharing your knowledge with us. I will have to open a EUR/USD chart and see how I can extrapolate from there, but the levels will not be meaningful to me as you are testing a new system.

Best personal wishes and good luck with the development work.
Hercs
  • #1,252
  • Oct 5, 2006 9:45am Oct 5, 2006 9:45am
Hi Hercs,

That is most interesting. If you see a strong signal through fib confluences on any currency, please let me know and I will check and see if my approach confirms it. I think some of my method is related to or the same as fib projections, though arrived at through a different path. I haven't reached the point yet where I know enough, but I believe that geometrical analysis can confirm the agreements between various Elliott Wave projection, fibo projection, and time projection discoveries.
  • #1,253
  • Oct 5, 2006 6:35pm Oct 5, 2006 6:35pm
I do have the physical DiNapoli book but I also have the e-book version i obtain from another forum. Pirated E-books
are getting commmon place in the e-world.
I can post it here if u don' t mind.
CCI decipherer
  • #1,254
  • Oct 5, 2006 7:08pm Oct 5, 2006 7:08pm
Unless you want FF to be shut down and/or Merlin litigated, please do NOT post obviously illegal/copyrighted material without the author's permission.
If you want to do something shady, do it via instant messanging or email or something that's from one person to the other directly, don't use the forum of someone else for it if it puts him(and possibly others) at risk doing it, please.

Just because it's commonplace doesn't mean the law changes along with it automatically, even if one would wish it were so at times. :/

No offense.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,255
  • Oct 6, 2006 1:25am Oct 6, 2006 1:25am
Hi itme

Thanks again for your reply, your generosity with your time to everyone is commendable.

Speaking of time (zone), where are you based?. I'm in Oz and would like
to sychronize my clock.

Thankyou.

Pipnic
  • #1,256
  • Edited 2:49am Oct 6, 2006 2:16am | Edited 2:49am
Friday October 6 2006 at 3:15 ET

Yesterday I said, "todays low of 1.2665 on EUR/USD is the end of wave B of wave 4 and it is now on the way to wave C to complete Wave 4. .."

That wasn't entirely true. It was then the end of the "a" wave of Wave B, and the "c" wave took the price down further to 1.2638. I believe that now at the current price of 1.2670 is the bottom of the internal Wave 2 of an upwards complex corrective component wave C of a larger Wave 4.

Trade Signal #198 Buy EUR/USD at 1.2670

Stop is 1.2629

Target is 1.2760

Risk is 43 pips

Reward is 108 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 2.5 to 1

For research purposes only.

Note: This is not a particularly high confidence trade, and neither is it a great ratio of reward to risk.
  • #1,257
  • Oct 6, 2006 2:55am Oct 6, 2006 2:55am
Friday October 6 2006 at 3:15 ET

Here is the corresponding trade in GBP/USD:

Trade Signal #199 Buy GBP/USD at 1.8732

Stop is 1.8633

Target is 1.8960

Risk is 104 pips

Reward is 224 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 2.2 to 1

For research purposes only.
  • #1,258
  • Oct 6, 2006 3:03am Oct 6, 2006 3:03am
Thanks, sogt725 , for your offer to share the info regarding Fibo levels and projections. We had better follow the advise above to avoid problems.
  • #1,259
  • Oct 6, 2006 5:02am Oct 6, 2006 5:02am
Both buy levels were hit at my broker. Should I hold thru the NFP @ 8.30?
  • #1,260
  • Oct 6, 2006 6:07am Oct 6, 2006 6:07am
RUNNN !! Close positions & run !!

Its not worth losing the farm, to non-farm

I'll be sitting back playing poker, watching the graphs go nuts.

--Matador

Quoting NewstraderFX
Both buy levels were hit at my broker. Should I hold thru the NFP @ 8.30?
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