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  • #20,741
  • Jul 20, 2018 4:47pm Jul 20, 2018 4:47pm
Quoting becks.200
{quote} Day close around 1720 makes me think that we will also test 1790 on Monday, passing through 1755. By rejection, do you mean L close below 1755?
the close like today was above 1705 being bullish ... but had it missed it would turn bearish... the same with 1755.5 bullish for a wtf rise or wtf drop... depending on close.. once its crossed. the close above 1705 was indicative 1755.5 will be tested.. the close following, could indicate bullish or bearish.. if bullish 1849 may be challenged/// if it breaks 1.2 has a valid target..

month wise 1755.5 is the opposite of 1598... go back and read about 1598 needing that close or it will rise
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,742
  • Jul 20, 2018 4:56pm Jul 20, 2018 4:56pm
std
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,743
  • Jul 20, 2018 5:03pm Jul 20, 2018 5:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
std
Have a good weekend;
  • #20,744
  • Jul 20, 2018 5:51pm Jul 20, 2018 5:51pm
Quoting BaIdur
All those wicks on the weekly look pretty bullish...i mean bottomish...just vice versa looking back at the 1.25 top
yes but not necessarily, there are targets at 1.22 and a moving target at 1.137x
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #20,745
  • Jul 21, 2018 2:40am Jul 21, 2018 2:40am
Quoting micho
{quote} be my guest
...Thanks mate...
The Chonchy
  • #20,746
  • Jul 21, 2018 9:15am Jul 21, 2018 9:15am
Quoting Boulder
Just got COT for July 17, 2018, institutions continued to trim their net longs in Euro this week when Euro rallied to 1.1744 high on 7/17 , now net long is the lowest amount since May 2017., more info later this week.. {image}
I prefer the way this site represents the COT data where the nett positions are adjusted for the OI. https://freecotdata.com/currencies-2/

They have been reducing size as value on the euro is lower at around 1.5550 (see the purple line in the chart below).
However we are starting to get towards month end and the pension funds (green line) need to start buying Euros to balance their books, at the moment they are short a lot of euros and will need to start buying at some point to book their profits. So expect a bit of volatility going into the last week of the month unless something drastic happens on the equity markets and they no longer need to balance.

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If we look at how the options market are pricing the Euro its still very bearish.

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So still a seller at top edges and wholesale price areas until the last couple days of the month, then I will stand aside if value is still below the market and the pension funds have to buy.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #20,747
  • Jul 21, 2018 10:05pm Jul 21, 2018 10:05pm
Quoting copi88
{quote} I prefer the way this site represents the COT data where the nett positions are adjusted for the OI. https://freecotdata.com/currencies-2/ They have been reducing size as value on the euro is lower at around 1.5550 (see the purple line in the chart below). However we are starting to get towards month end and the pension funds (green line) need to start buying Euros to balance their books, at the moment they are short a lot of euros and will need to start buying at some point to book their profits. So expect a bit of volatility...
glad to see a older trader here. I would appreciate some further cot input from you. I see the year closed higher, the quarter lower. but the month, week and day have closed higher. indicative to me 1755.5 is one to watch if London closes higher any day next week above 1756. Bulls can push a 1849 test with 1.2+ not out of the question.

On the same merit once above 1756, a close below. Being a rejection for bears to get a turn. To retest 1598, only a close below 1598 and after 1553 will keep me holding any shorts. now that bearish sentiment would grow with a week close below 1625 and a month below 1682. But as for as I can see this range we are in can be broken with a london day close above 1556 only, then it should test 1790, 1849 and maybe more.. the month candle was a green doji. so 1849 had a great shot for a wtf break out. last week was also a green doji.. range until a +1756 close or a -1553 close.. between we can trade it like a range.

that month doji to me indicates most of June's range will be visited in July. I can say the same for the week's doji.. indicative of a range. not just because its a doji,, but because its a doji with long wicks near equal..

thanks for the comment.. Boulder does most of the cot posting here. We are all willing to learn another view. Welcome if your wanting to stay.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,748
  • Jul 21, 2018 10:50pm Jul 21, 2018 10:50pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Have a good weekend;
good weekend for motorboating;;;;;;;;;;
Inserted Video


Inserted Video
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,749
  • Jul 22, 2018 10:23am Jul 22, 2018 10:23am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} glad to see a older trader here. I would appreciate some further cot input from you. I see the year closed higher, the quarter lower. but the month, week and day have closed higher. indicative to me 1755.5 is one to watch if London closes higher any day next week above 1756. Bulls can push a 1849 test with 1.2+ not out of the question. On the same merit once above 1756, a close below. Being a rejection for bears to get a turn. To retest 1598, only a close below 1598 and after 1553 will keep me holding any shorts. now that bearish sentiment...

I dont pay too much attention to the COT as I am a day trader but here are a number of things to look out for.

 

  1. Only really useful for the first two to three days after the release.
  2. Generally you should trade in the direction of the large spec.
  3. Look for when price rises but the institutions are selling or not increasing their longs and visa versa. Expect them to run the stops above the market
  4. Crowded tops - where the large specs are at 100% of their holdings and price goes up. There is no one left to keep on buying...auction is finished. As soon as price starts to go against the whole market who are all long there is going to be a fight for liquidity to get off the long trades... (visa versa for crowded bottoms)
  5. Look for large adjustment in holdings by the commercials, this is usually an indication of a charge in the market as they dump the last of their stock.


Looking forward next week there are softer PMI numbers forecast, softer German IFO and then on Thurs the rate announcement where Draghi will talk down the Euro. So pretty negative week ahead.
This is reflected in the market makers pricing in the pricing of the deltas in those charts above.

Also we can see where the volume is coming in on the options. Its mostly on the Call side which is bearish as they use the calls to hedge their short positions.

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The calls are coming in at 1.9000 but there is a very large imbalance at 1.850 (this is on the futures not spot) and this is where the gamma scalpers will start their short campaign if they have value.

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I am expecting something like the below to happen next week as price gets pushed up to run the liquidity above the pink lines and either sell off at the first or second box. Just depends on what value line (purple) is doing. There was a very large positive adjustment on Friday along with positive adjustments on the 25 Delta Risk Reversals.


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I am away the whole of next week and wont be trading...
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #20,750
  • Jul 22, 2018 11:44am Jul 22, 2018 11:44am
Quoting copi88
{quote} I dont pay too much attention to the COT as I am a day trader but here are a number of things to look out for. Only really useful for the first two to three days after the release. Generally you should trade in the direction of the large spec. Look for when price rises but the institutions are selling or not increasing their longs and visa versa. Expect them to run the stops above the market Crowded tops - where the large specs are at 100% of their holdings and price goes up. There is no one left to keep on buying...auction is finished....
being in this range I'm inclined to short this 17xx/90 level. but will not hold a L day close above 1755.5 with a short.. with a L close above that I intend on being long.. I intend to be short and move above 1755.5 that cant close L above. simple plan..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,751
  • Jul 22, 2018 4:11pm Jul 22, 2018 4:11pm
Quoting micho
{quote} new targets in bold, targets reached are striked: EU 1.219x UC 1.227x and 1.336x UJ 111.5x and 106.7x AN 1.100x and 1.080x GU 1.287x, 1.396x EJ 1.263x and 136.9x EC 1.492x and 1.577x EG 0.868x and 0.888x bitcoin 1135x
new targets in bold, targets reached are striked:
EU 1.219x
UC 1.227x and 1.336x
UJ 106.7x
AN 1.100x and 1.080x
GU 1.287x, 1.396x
EJ 1.263x and 136.9x
EC 1.492x and 1.577x
EG 0.868x and 0.888x
bitcoin1135x
NZDUSD 0.672x 0.683x
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #20,752
  • Edited 8:53pm Jul 22, 2018 4:37pm | Edited 8:53pm
How Institutions Position Themselves In Euro/Usd This Week

Last week, institutions continued unwinding their longs, which was shown in the latest COT as of Tuesday, July 17, 2018.

The institutions net long Euro positions decreased last week by 2,950 contracts to 21,407 contracts, lowest amount since May, 2017.

2,011 long positions were closed, and 936 short positions were added as well . Now Longs total 177,390 contracts vs shorts total 155,983 contracts .

53% long exposure vs 47% short exposure, which 1% decreased in longs and 1% increased in shorts from the previous week

The week Euro started at 1.1750,rallied up to 1.1762 high on 7/10, it started its sell off, hit low at 1.1613, closed at 1.1660 on 7/17/2018

More longs being closed and shorts being added, which indicates they expect price to fall;

We see after COT report, Euro continued to sell off to 1.1575 low on thursday before it started to rallied up to 1.1738 high last Friday .,

Now Euro may on the way to challenge the daily supply zone 1.1750-1.1850 once again, a level where sellers will be active this week.

Long Term Less Bullish, Short Term Limited Recovery.

Please note institutions take weeks and months to build a position in the currency market. For Euro, they have built their net long positions since 5/9/2017.
Therefore, the bullish sentiment is more for long term outlook, not intended for short term trading.
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  • #20,753
  • Jul 22, 2018 4:46pm Jul 22, 2018 4:46pm
Thank you Boulder for your excellent analysis
  • #20,754
  • Edited 6:12pm Jul 22, 2018 5:54pm | Edited 6:12pm
Shorted at 1730 with stop at 1741 (SL triggered within 15 minutes after opening )

And shorted another at 1742, with SL at 1757 ( last trade for the day)
  • #20,755
  • Jul 22, 2018 7:10pm Jul 22, 2018 7:10pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i got heavy pending longs at 1685.. stop 1680... the day closed higher.. so maybe it will give a shallow drop. before testing 1755 area
it appears pa will take 1755.5.. I will have a pending short on the possibility it does close below 1755.5.. pending heavy short 1788,, stop 1793. if in the green, and it close london above 1755.5.. I will close the short trade. If below 1755.5 on london close.. i will hold the short.

1755.5 is also a resistance area
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,756
  • Jul 23, 2018 4:15am Jul 23, 2018 4:15am
Pending buy 1665, sl 30pips.
  • #20,757
  • Jul 23, 2018 6:15am Jul 23, 2018 6:15am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i got heavy pending longs at 1685.. stop 1680... the day closed higher.. so maybe it will give a shallow drop. before testing 1755 area
missed 1685 by a few pips while sleeping.. trying another at on 1661 touch at 1663.5
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,758
  • Jul 23, 2018 6:37am Jul 23, 2018 6:37am
I was hoping to catch this bounce off 1683 at 1685. if London closes above 1755.5,,, I will be crying.. I think I will be crying in 4 hours. But i can still long later. Now if pa rises above 1755.5, then closes below. I can look to short. I still have a pending short at 1788, stop 1793. a close L above 1755.5 would likely hit my 1793 stop..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,759
  • Jul 23, 2018 7:27am Jul 23, 2018 7:27am
Eur/Usd: Daily Market Trends Update 7/23/2018

Eur/Usd On 7/23/2018 at 8am est.. Boulder Multi Time Frame System:

1H, Downtrend, Trend stop at 1H close 1.1747, Running Period: 3x1H
4H, Uptrend, Trend stop at 4H close 1.1586, Running Period: 4 x 4H
Daily, Downtrend, Trend stop at day close 1.1763, Running Period: 76 days.
Weekly, Downtrend, Trend stop at day close 1.2480, Running Period: 8week


( Note: Those stops will change with hour close and price action)

Trading Strategy:

Currently H1 downtrend, H4 uptrend, daily and weekly are downtrend. A mixed signal, range trade

If you trade 1H trend, preference is to short as long as downtrend stop 1.1747 held at 1H close.
  • #20,760
  • Jul 23, 2018 8:24am Jul 23, 2018 8:24am
Quoting Boulder
Eur/Usd: Daily Market Trends Update 7/23/2018 Eur/Usd On 7/23/2018 at 8am est.. Boulder Multi Time Frame System: 1H, Downtrend, Trend stop at 1H close 1.1747, Running Period: 3x1H 4H, Uptrend, Trend stop at 4H close 1.1586, Running Period: 4 x 4H Daily, Downtrend, Trend stop at day close 1.1763, Running Period: 76 days. Weekly, Downtrend, Trend stop at day close 1.2480, Running Period: 8week ( Note: Those stops will change with hour close and price action) Trading Strategy: Currently H1 downtrend, H4 uptrend, daily and weekly are downtrend. A mixed...
Hi Boulder,

What are your targets for shorts?

Thanks
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