Plan the Trade

That is way to many trades

Although I am only marginally successful, I have been at this for many years and still enjoy it very much.
I have met, either in person or via books or the web, quite a few successful traders.
The way each one trades is unique, the principles are the same but how each person applies it differs.
I think that is what makes trading such a challenging venture.

I agree !

Trading is very challenging one has to always try and stay in sinc with the market and accept the fact that you have to reevaluate if what your doing is working and if not be humble enough to alter it

What makes me nuts sometimes is that I can see the flow of the market, like music ... beautiful, but to harness it is quite another matter ....

Look for the obvious wicks to s and r/s and d and pullback s and d spots

I think more emphasis needs to go on firstly determining trend, then looking out for the most obvious wicks or tails and look for a retest of those levels and not the 'every nook and cranny' type.

That's the overall plan, but of course we get counter-trends within trends and if that means a small 123 getting triggered, then we need to look left and see if there is 'bluesky' clear back to one of the larger wicks/tails. Then you can decide whether to chance a pullback.

The overall trend isn't broken yet until the prior wick/tail (peak/trough) is broken, so it is counter on one scale and yet still a trend in it's own right.

The best set-ups are a retest of a large wick/tail, in one straight move.

I also look to loosely label moves in 5 waves, with the 3rd being powerful, so if you see a sudden thrust of several candles all in a row (3rd) followed by a shallower retrace, then a further low (4th & 5th), it's time to be cautious and expect a bigger pullback to the start of the 3rd or trend change. Reg Divergence normally occurs between wave 3 & 5 ends...

Above all, remember to look left!

You trade like a sniper ... I currently trade like a trigger-happy machine gun operator

Thomi, i think you are closer to going 'Live' than i am!

I like your charts and you seem to be very disciplined. I've lost a little discipline recently and i'm sure it's cos of demo. Kind of a catch 22 situation really. I need the build up of confidence through a month of good results on demo to make the switch, but i need the reality of 'Live' trading to bring the discipline....

Hello CG

no i'm not ready either :-(
I have very badly managed my position ...
I took shorts thinking that we were still in a bearish trend.
I feel better with higher u

I was thinking about it and it's a crazy situation. About 6 years ago, i used to trade the Dax and sometimes ran positions of £5 a point, (which would equal £10 a point on the Nas) and yet over the years since then (probably coinciding with my ever diminishing pot!), my position sizes have gotten smaller and smaller.

I don't mind admitting that the minimum single contract on Futures is easily ten times larger than the risk that i was playing around with on FX prior to switching.

It doesn't make any sense to me, to switch to 'live' until you've gained enough experience to stop making too many mistakes. There will be a fair share of losers, we all know that, it's staying onside to have at least a 50% win ratio and then making sure that you stay in a winning trade for long enough to also have a very favourable R:R outcome...

I keep getting done, by leaving risk on the table to see it get taken out and then the next time chasing a tight stop and grabbing say 10, only to see that one become the runner for an easy 30.

It stands to reason that when trend changes (a pullback ends), the price will more often then not, be hesitant and do a retest to form a LH (or a HL), before it builds momentum and more buyers (or sellers) join in... so it needs to be the other way around. Grab first and then run the refill/retested position...

Here's what i think and i know that i am guilty of this one huge flaw... I over-trade... simply that!

Having no position is a position. I find that i am always trying to work out what the next move is ALL the time, whereas, what is required is a more relaxed approach and only take the positions when they scream at you to take them. Wait until it looks right (and that of course is where experience and time is the biggest requirement).

If you find yourself 50/50 or 60/40 or even 70/30 regards which direction it should head next - stay out... wait until it's more like 80/20 split. By waiting until ONLY those situations, you will have positive results regularly. Easier said than done, but 'patience is a virtue'.

I've long said that a mechanical approach isn't the right thinking generally, as you always need discretion to determine the underlying trend that you're trading...

the prices have decided to leave short,

BUT

Oh it's so easy in hindsight!)

I started watching after the drop and missed the lovely 123 trigger & retrace back into trend from prior Supply yesterday (chart below).

I picked up where the red arrow is and i made a hash of things as described in previous post. I brought stop down to BE on first trade and got nicked missing an easy 20, then i reloaded and this time chased my stoploss too tightly bagging 10, only to see an easy 30 come and go without me. What should have been +40/50 with the grab first, run second, ended in +10, but the real travesty was missing the break of sequence... LL followed by HH. I did consider that we now had trend up, with the constant testing of this level, each time breaking it by slight HH's, but still i missed going long at the green arrow, 'doh'!



The strong bout of Positive Divergence should also have been noted, strongly suggesting change of trend. As i say, easy in hindsight, but a great example of highlighting trades which are 'screaming' at you to take them, as opposed to trying to find all the little 'nook and cranny' trades.

I decided to leave the position