Swing Trading on Gold and FX

7/12/2018 session3 recap:
stopped out, suddenly selling order put down the Euro.
bot 2 contracts of call option of Euro @1.1700 expiring on 8/3/2018.


waiting for:
0730 est ECB meeting brief
0830 est U.S. CPI
UK Brexit blueprint later today

low volume, low volatility.
expecting 50 pips to the North however the probability is fading away.

7/12/2018 session5 recap:
daily high at the moment.


chance to close 50pips higher gone.
sold the Euro 8/3/2018 1.1700 call options at 12 pips profit.
call option is for volatility, since toady is relatively calm.
clear the position should be a good idea.

barely breakeven today.

7/13/2018 session4:
long at the low, expecting a rebound following some good news after the bad news on Brexit.

7/13/2018 session4 recap:
an epic come back of Sterling, and Euro as well.

because Trump changed his tone after meeting May.

update:
out of long, the long at low is not the lowest in the day.

done for this week, focused on Euro.
it is better for me in the turbulent days to trade only one thing.

trading volume was not going up,
because I did not have chance to set up a condensed trading zone, except Monday.
too conservative.

options trading gain is not included in this account.


need more trading combo in the next week.
good weekend!

7/16/2018 session2 recap:
busy Monday, Euro long hit stop.

CFTC combined U.S. Dollar long increased to highest Since Mar 2017.
Source: Reuters

7/16/2018 session5:
Short sell, expecting 4 hour divergence zone may work before 1400 est.

updated average accumulated volume chart on Euro.
Eastern Time.

7/17/2018 session3:
short Euro again, risky, when price started dropping, it was decisive.
today we have no good news on Euro, nor bad news.
the rise in the UK morning session was not lasting, so keep the short to balance the price was a good idea.

the red box zone also suggested a good downside range.
markets expected 1000 est the Fed chair testimony will be consistent.

0630 est chart.

1000 est chart, almost out of the red box.


overall chart.

7/17/2018 session3 recap:
exit most positions. not bad for Tuesday.


update:
close all positions.

Euro out of the red box, then no divergence.
71% probability will stay below the box today.


update:
confirmed below the lower bounder of red box

look at this shape.
the downtrend will likely last for a few more days.

clear, almost risk free, slow and smooth move in the last 20 hours.
no news of Euro for now.

0430 est UK CPI may give Sterling a boost, hopefully that will lift Euro too.
and 0500 est Eruo zone CPI data may make it clear.
then 1000 est Fed Chair Testifies - I expect there will be no surprise.
and a setback on U.S. Dollar may occur - for profit taking.

.DXY 30 min chart is a good indicator for today.

7/18/2018 session3:
long Euro, to test water.
expect the price will get involved into the red box in UK session.

It is drifting around in no man's land at the moment, but would love to hear your take on Gold. Thanks.

Hi ThreeHalf,

For me it is difficult to trade Gold at the current price level - new high / new low does not fit my system well - I usually lost on these days.

Because I am facing dilemma on both sides.


1) I use Fibonacci levels, if I take the short, stop will be around 1227, but I have no idea where the profit target is.
2) Take the long is more comfortable to me, but the target zone is too narrow, 1223-1227.
75% chance it will be below 1227, or above 1239 (nearly impossible today) at the close.

I believe it will offer better risk reward ratio after price is away from the new low and is stabilized.

UK CPI data is really bad, market expectations for an interest rate hike in August slip to 69%.
Euro is dragged down a little bit.
still keep the long.
waiting for the Euro zone data on 0500 est.

update:
Euro zone CPI no good, but acceptable.

Exit half position. respect the moving average.


update: break 50 moving average, heading to red box.



in the long run very likely to contact red box, and still has chance to end up above the box at close.


update2: 1229 est, in contact with the red box zone, hopefully will get out from the upper side.

7/18/2018 session3 recap:
if Euro maintain the current peace of rising, it will be closed above red box just marginally.

no good news today - not worth to hold longer.
i closed the last lot and done for today.