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(binned per thread starter’s request) Rocket Fuel Theory

  • #21
  • Edited 8:24pm Jul 15, 2018 8:14pm | Edited 8:24pm
Quoting dagoods
{quote} needed energy = T/D *(X) T = Time D= Distance X =? Can you tell us what X stands for? how does that help us trade? needed energy... needed for what? not sure i follow what it is you are attempting to do. If you can explain a bit better i think the thread will have more posts from those more knowledgeable then ourselves. TYIA
Good question dagoods. I couldn't find the "relation" (mathematics) symbol on my keyboard, so I put it down like that. Still it's valid; that means "Acquired Energy" has a direct relationship with «time» and an inverse relationship with the retracing «distance». X is telling us that other factors also affect the equation (actually many other factors).

Acquired energy to continue its established direction and, possibly, break through its immediate swing point (in the case of our picture: the last lower high).
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #22
  • Jul 15, 2018 8:23pm Jul 15, 2018 8:23pm
Quoting dagoods
{quote} needed energy = T/D *(X) T = Time D= Distance X =? Can you tell us what X stands for? how does that help us trade? needed energy... needed for what? not sure i follow what it is you are attempting to do. If you can explain a bit better i think the thread will have more posts from those more knowledgeable then ourselves. TYIA
I changed the terminology both on the pic and in the first post. Thank you for your feedback.
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #23
  • Jul 15, 2018 10:37pm Jul 15, 2018 10:37pm
Quoting josephcom
{... "Acquired Energy" has a direct relationship with «time» and an inverse relationship with the retracing «distance». X is telling us that other factors also affect the equation (actually many other factors). Acquired energy to continue its established direction and, possibly, break through its immediate swing point (in the case of our picture: the last lower high).
Might I suggest X = volume? Total tick volume during the time interval being measured. Thus if the time interval is 11 bars the corresponding volume for those 11 bars is your X variable.

Also since volume is the driving force in price movement you might look at it as "energy".
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  • #24
  • Jul 16, 2018 2:15am Jul 16, 2018 2:15am
Quoting DonPato
{quote} Might I suggest X = volume? Total tick volume during the time interval being measured. Thus if the time interval is 11 bars the corresponding volume for those 11 bars is your X variable. Also since volume is the driving force in price movement you might look at it as "energy".
Unfortunately no body has access to the real volume in Forex (since it's a distributed market and not centralised). What you see as «volume» is only valid in your broker 'ssphere which is not reliable.

Anyway, like I said, X can be many factors: fundamental events, market sentiment, time of the year, luck, correlation with other pairs etc. We're not interested in it. We're only concerned about those two factors I mentioned: retracing distance and time.
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #25
  • Jul 16, 2018 2:41am Jul 16, 2018 2:41am
What if, you take the previous 20-50-100 & etc. number of bars high to low like, support and resistance?
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #26
  • Jul 16, 2018 3:16am Jul 16, 2018 3:16am
Quoting Js3mwtRc
What if, you take the previous 20-50-100 & etc. number of bars high to low like, support and resistance?
We always compare the last move to its previous one. Let's say the previous move took 100 bars. Now, 100 bars have passed but only 61.8% of the last move has been retraced. This clearly signifies a reluctance bringing us to the conclusion that:

1. This is really a retracing move and not an impulse.
2. We're very close to the end of the retracing move.

Try to play with this concept yourself if you're interested and share your observations here. See any move in ABCD context
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #27
  • Jul 16, 2018 9:54am Jul 16, 2018 9:54am
Quoting josephcom
Unfortunately no body has access to the real volume in Forex (since it's a distributed market and not centralised). What you see as «volume» is only valid in your broker 'ssphere which is not reliable...
I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss tick volumes in your analysis especially in what you are trying to accomplish here. It will eventually come down to this question: How much time does it take to use up all the counter trend volume to then return price movement to the trend?

That is essentially what you are asking with your formula. Put another way..."how do we know when the retrace is over?" Volume and more correctly stated, price reaction to order flow/volume will be your clue. Yes I understand that tick volume differs from broker to broker and yes I understand the decentralized nature of the FX market. Further I understand that the volume metric is not "TRUE" volume but only tick volume...however I have found value in this metric and I believe it may help you as well, IF you are willing to consider it.
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  • #28
  • Jul 17, 2018 2:56am Jul 17, 2018 2:56am
Quoting josephcom
{quote} Hi Maria. This is not a system/strategy like I said in this post (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=11262898#post11262898). Rather, it can add value and depth to your analysis.
Wow; that’s really great! Thank you very much for reply! By the way, please add a depth of market analysis! Thanks in advance.
  • #29
  • Jul 17, 2018 3:50am Jul 17, 2018 3:50am
Quoting MariaEduard
{quote} Wow; that’s really great! Thank you very much for reply! By the way, please add a depth of market analysis! Thanks in advance.
Maria, honestly I don't think neither"depth of market" nor "volume" are valid factors to be considered in Forex like they are in stock markets. This is why I've never pursued them.

I personally analyse the market structure and then decide, based on the price action, if I wanna go short or long or neither. You can see that this has nothing to do with "time analysis" or anything else. BUT, while my framework is clearly marked out, I take advantage of almost anything people are talking about around me: candlestick patterns, fundamental events, indicators and, recently, time analysis.

You see? This is just a tool in my toolbox. Nothing is 100%
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #30
  • Jul 17, 2018 5:56am Jul 17, 2018 5:56am
Quoting dagoods
good thread. for a very long time been advocating that someone who will create a range bar version of this for metatrader>>>> https://backtothefuturetrading.com/flux-store-old/logik-hybrid-renko/ that way you can square price with time and get a moving average cross (or whatever other indicator/system you want) that actually works that would be the simple easy way of doing things methinks it is a very simple indicator in theory 2 cents
I noticed you have been advocating the above chart type for many years. Could you show us some trading results taken on those charts? As I can hardly believe somebody can trade such a mess in a live market.
  • #31
  • Jul 17, 2018 6:04am Jul 17, 2018 6:04am
Quoting josephcom
{quote} Unfortunately no body has access to the real volume in Forex (since it's a distributed market and not centralised). What you see as «volume» is only valid in your broker 'ssphere which is not reliable .
Maybe...Maybe not....
https://www.fxstreet.com/education/volume-in-the-forex-markets-useful-or-not-201703091034
  • #32
  • Jul 17, 2018 8:14am Jul 17, 2018 8:14am
Quoting josephcom
I believe, the more the price proceeds non-stop in any given direction, the less energy or fuel it's left with in order to go further and, more importantly, to break a swing point (support/resistance)...
thank you for your thread would you please explain more about non-stop price with another image ?
  • #33
  • Last Post: Jul 17, 2018 7:44pm Jul 17, 2018 7:44pm
Quoting dagoods
good thread. for a very long time been advocating that someone who will create a range bar version of this for metatrader>>>> https://backtothefuturetrading.com/flux-store-old/logik-hybrid-renko/ that way you can square price with time and get a moving average cross (or whatever other indicator/system you want) that actually works that would be the simple easy way of doing things methinks it is a very simple indicator in theory 2 cents
Comon man you been asking for this since 2016, maybe its time for you to just buy it especially since you think its that valuable, just do it man
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