How do you define a profitable trading system? | Page 3 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

If you have a profitable system, will brokers sabotage you? 61 replies

How do you define risk? 32 replies

How do you Define Identify and Follow Trend? 5 replies

How do you define a trend? 20 replies

How do you define a strong trend? 8 replies

How do you define a profitable trading system?

  • #41
  • Jul 15, 2018 2:33pm Jul 15, 2018 2:33pm
Quoting AlastorFate
Are you too lazy to check the definition of 'may' and 'might'? If you misrepresent someone's post by ignoring grammar, you are the one who should own it and apologize. You said that statement of mine is oomplete nonsense. Doesn't that make you look silly? It is okay to be bad at stuffs. But laziness and unwillingness to own up one's mistakes is unacceptable. Are you too lazy to check the definition of may and might?

No, no, he said it is complete nonsense, not oomplete nonsense. Kind of makes you look silly btw to accuse the man of laziness and not check a rather small text for typos! And do not forget:

If you misrepresent someone's post by ignoring correct writing, you are the one who should own it and apologize.

Can we get back to trading and not let this become a stupid fight?
  • #42
  • Jul 15, 2018 2:37pm Jul 15, 2018 2:37pm
Quoting Fxmd
{quote} Ever heard of the scientific method approach? That what I was aiming for when I created EURJPY breakout system. Many people here at forexfactory can show proof of how profitable it is after they do their own backtest in their own brokers, there isn’t another system like it. Still waiting for someone to develop a better system.

That sounds interesting. Do you have any sources to dive deeper into the topic?

Do you mean by scientific method an approach towards backtesting?
Does it relate Poppers falsification theorie?

Sounds like an impressively interesting topic!
  • #43
  • Jul 15, 2018 2:40pm Jul 15, 2018 2:40pm
Quoting AlastorFate
Are you too lazy to check the definition of 'may' and 'might'? If you misrepresent someone's post by ignoring grammar, you are the one who should own it and apologize. You said that statement of mine is oomplete nonsense. Doesn't that make you look silly? It is okay to be bad at stuffs. But laziness and unwillingness to own up one's mistakes is unacceptable.

By the way, stuff is always plural, so there is actually no stuffs! Something that you might check before! Or may? Well, i guess you will tell me!
  • #44
  • Edited 2:59pm Jul 15, 2018 2:44pm | Edited 2:59pm
Quoting AlastorFate
Are you too lazy to check the definition of 'may' and 'might'? If you misrepresent someone's post by ignoring grammar, you are the one who should own it and apologize. You said that statement of mine is oomplete nonsense. Doesn't that make you look silly? It is okay to be bad at stuffs. But laziness and unwillingness to own up one's mistakes is unacceptable.
By the way, I don't see any problem on "May" from what others post because "May" or "Might" are both ways of expressing future possibility. From what I learnt, if the truth of a situation is still not know at the time of writing, either "May" or "Might" is acceptable. I don't feel your statement is nonsense, but it doesn't benefit either on trading information.

You are the only one thought that using "Might" is accurate. As I know, "Might" in a sentence only if the referred of a situation that in fact did not occur. So stop showing off your "half pail singlish" here.
  • #45
  • Jul 15, 2018 4:29pm Jul 15, 2018 4:29pm
Quoting AlastorFate
'might' and 'may'. How bad is your English?
What's the difference?
  • #46
  • Jul 15, 2018 5:40pm Jul 15, 2018 5:40pm
Having a rigid back testable system is a bad idea.

Your job as a trader is to read the volatility and liquidty of the day and adjust your system too it.

Some days you can just tell are gonna be slow and dull. thus you would need a smaller target.
Other days you can tell might be a bit wild.. these days you can have a bigger target.

you can take the same sorta setups.. every day... but don't expect the same results some days you may get 10 pips off the setup, other days 100
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #47
  • Edited 7:27pm Jul 15, 2018 7:16pm | Edited 7:27pm
Quoting tomorton
{quote} What's the difference?
The only word I can say is "Delusional" which happens to a lot of trader as well. Believing something to be true that is clearly not in his own belief.

Should I give him an example when we should use "Might" in future?

Croatia "Might" have win the World Cup, unfortunately they lost 4-2 to France. A sentence only if the referred of a situation that in fact did not occur.

Ask him go learn his own mistakes now.
  • #48
  • Jul 15, 2018 9:32pm Jul 15, 2018 9:32pm
Quoting AlastorFate
There are tons of trading systems available around, free or paid. Why is it that there are still so many losing traders? You can follow a trading system faithfully and still lose money in the long run. Hasn't that occur to anyone? You can test all you want, try as many trading systems as you want. it's still the same. Losing trades, losing accounts. --- It is imperative a system/methodology can stand the test of time and various market conditions. MOST trading systems will fail on this criteria alone. --- Mechanical trading alone won't cut it, (the...
From reading these few pages I think quite a few people have given you very good answers but by looking at your continued posts they come across as if you think it's the system that fails after a few weeks or months. I think you will find that the vast majority of lost accounts are due to us as individuals and very little to do with systems. Of course you have to either choose a system or build one that works but IMO at least 80% of successful trading is down to us and what goes through our heads and the decisions we make. Most people believe there is no holy grail in trading but I disagree, the holy grail is inside our own head but unfortunately in many cases it takes years to realise and in some cases people never realise it at all, they continually blame the system and then go system hopping to disaster.

I was reading an article just this morning where a broker, IG Markets I think it was, analyzed over 1 million trades during 2016 and the first part of the analysis was quite amazing. Out of all of those trades traders picked the right direction 64% of the time, pretty darned good but then they looked at another metric, risk to reward. I can't remember the percentages but the amount of retail traders who's losers were way bigger than their winners was huge so we have to ask ourselves is that because the system failed or is it because of the fear of loss and other psychological reasons? Personally I think the latter and it most certainly was for me. Out of all the traders in that study 51% of them had a profitable 2016 if their R:R was a minimum of 1:1, just 19% if it was under.

It's only my opinion but there are hundreds of good systems out there whether they be on this forum or elsewhere, if only the teachings of Mark Douglas could be implanted in our brains I'm confident there would be way more multi millionaires in retail trading.
Ardua Ad Astra Per
  • #49
  • Edited Jul 16, 2018 1:49am Jul 15, 2018 9:34pm | Edited Jul 16, 2018 1:49am
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post11263574




'I do agree that it is completely nonsense saying that what works now may not work in future.'




Just look at this statement carefully.

'Might' and 'may' can be used interchangeable of course.

The problem is not the word used. But what he meant by the whole statement.

He said that it is nonsense for me to say [analogy] 'if it rains today, it may/might not rain tomorrow.'

If he meant what he said, it implies he is saying what works today will 100%(definitely) work in the future.
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #50
  • Edited Jul 16, 2018 1:41am Jul 15, 2018 9:40pm | Edited Jul 16, 2018 1:41am
Quoting Bsg
{quote} No, no, he said it is complete nonsense, not oomplete nonsense. Kind of makes you look silly btw to accuse the man of laziness and not check a rather small text for typos! And do not forget: If you misrepresent someone's post by ignoring correct writing, you are the one who should own it and apologize. Can we get back to trading and not let this become a stupid fight?
He is lazy not to read my line carefully, and made an entire silly statement.

Not typo. 'Might' and 'may' is the same meaning. I don't care whether he used 'may' or 'might'. It's the meaning of his statement that is ridiculous.

Grammar and spelling are of lesser importance in forums. Who cares if a post has spelling and grammar errors, if the post has good contents.

Contents and information are the primary requisites of good posts.

Giving spelling and grammar unnecessary importance over factual, quality good contents is a sign of shallowness. Yeah I am referring to both of you.

If you are the type who get offended just because we debated against each other earlier and trying to find pointless ways to get back at me... I can add you to ignored too, I have no issue with that.
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #51
  • Jul 15, 2018 9:47pm Jul 15, 2018 9:47pm
Instead of owning up he made a mistake with his statement (or bothering to defend what he meant with that 'illogical' statement he made), he thought that it would be 'smart' to accuse me of getting picky with whether he use 'may' or 'might'.

This is the worst pathetic comeback I have ever seen.
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #52
  • Jul 15, 2018 10:10pm Jul 15, 2018 10:10pm
Quoting mistakesr
{quote} From reading these few pages I think quite a few people have given you very good answers but by looking at your continued posts they come across as if you think it's the system that fails after a few weeks or months. I think you will find that the vast majority of lost accounts are due to us as individuals and very little to do with systems. Of course you have to either choose a system or build one that works but IMO at least 80% of successful trading is down to us and what goes through our heads and the decisions we make. Most people believe...
That is an overall good post.

Every individual has his or her own way of perceiving the market, and other strong beliefs about market related matters.

I personally believe the over reliance on trading system (as in assume one could profit just by using a given system in the long run) and the failure to adapt to changes in market behaviour (fast enough), are partly the reasons why traders lose in the long run.

Maybe it would be more correct to say sometimes traders unintentionally use the wrong trading system/setup for a given market condition/behaviour, that is why they can lose in a given set of trades.

R:R is another factor.
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #53
  • Edited Jul 16, 2018 1:33am Jul 15, 2018 10:19pm | Edited Jul 16, 2018 1:33am
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post11264149

https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/usage/may-or-might

In practice, this distinction is rarely made today and the two words are generally interchangeable:
I might go home early if I’m tired.
He may have visited Italy before settling in Nuremberg.



Really bad idea to challenge me on grammar and correct word usage.

'might' can be used as past, present and future tense.

-face palm-
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #54
  • Jul 15, 2018 10:36pm Jul 15, 2018 10:36pm
Quoting AlastorFate
{quote} I personally believe the over reliance on trading system (as in assume one could profit just by using a given system in the long run) and the failure to adapt to changes in market behaviour (fast enough), are partly the reasons why traders lose in the long run. Maybe it would be more correct to say sometimes traders unintentionally use the wrong trading system/setup for a given market condition/behaviour, that is why they can lose in a given set of trades. R:R is another factor.
With all due respect if you've been trading the same system for a few years you would know if it's suited to a trending or ranging market and attempting to trade your system other than what it was designed for would be fool hardy. I'm not sure what you mean about changing markets, I've been trading 5 years and most Forex pairs I look at move pretty much the same today as they did 5 years ago. Volatility varies to a degree I'm sure but pairs still move 50-150 pips a day as they always have and probably always will.
Ardua Ad Astra Per
  • #55
  • Jul 16, 2018 1:46am Jul 16, 2018 1:46am
Quoting tomorton
{quote} What's the difference?
I was telling him to think about the meaning of my statement with emphasis on 'might' and 'may', which he overlooked.
'For the market to work, it needs people who think that they can beat it.'
  • #56
  • Jul 16, 2018 3:10am Jul 16, 2018 3:10am
Quoting AlastorFate
{quote} I was telling him to think about the meaning of my statement with emphasis on 'might' and 'may', which he overlooked.
So what's meaning should other people translate then? How bad is your english? I believe that's enough to leads people understand that you are emphasizing on "might" and "may". Don't try to fool yourself when you are such a loser.
  • #57
  • Jul 16, 2018 3:31am Jul 16, 2018 3:31am
Quoting AlastorFate
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post11263574 'I do agree that it is completely nonsense saying that what works now may not work in future.' Just look at this statement carefully. 'Might' and 'may' can be used interchangeable of course. The problem is not the word used. But what he meant by the whole statement. He said that it is nonsense for me to say [analogy] 'if it rains today, it may/might not rain tomorrow.' If he meant what he said, it implies he is saying what works today will 100%(definitely) work in the...
Yes, I do make that statement. The 1st ever structured solutions or "Structured Products" believe exist in 1700 B.C. Until today, the strategy still works in the market and sold by most institutional firms to investor. Some even offer "Principal Guarantee" if hold to maturity. If long history strategy doesn't work, why there are principal guarantee. This is just one of the example, not including Stock-Bond Comovements, Cross-Market Trading, Autocallable Notes and so on. I haven't heard any of those strategy has ever failed in my knowledge. Don't compare professional proven strategy with those random so called holy grail and failed in next 6 months or so.
  • #58
  • Jul 16, 2018 6:24am Jul 16, 2018 6:24am
Quoting ChinaTraderz
{quote} I do agree that it is completely nonsense saying that what works now may not work in future. 5 years ago, trader hedges Precious Metals like GOLD, SILVER in between Chinese Market and COMEX and it is still working until today. Of course the result weren't as good as 5 years ago because smart people are all around the globe.
Systems that use certain indicators will work in certain market conditions and not others, you even get this on a daily basis when you get false signals overnight in lower timeframes particularly, so I have no idea why you think that it doesn't apply elsewhere.

Certain strategies like hedging will of course generally continue working, although incredibly hard to do in Forex but they are not trading systems dependant on indicators they are basic investment strategies used to reduce risk.
  • #59
  • Jul 16, 2018 8:38am Jul 16, 2018 8:38am
Quoting Catch-22
{quote} Systems that use certain indicators will work in certain market conditions and not others, you even get this on a daily basis when you get false signals overnight in lower timeframes particularly, so I have no idea why you think that it doesn't apply elsewhere. Certain strategies like hedging will of course generally continue working, although incredibly hard to do in Forex but they are not trading systems dependant on indicators they are basic investment strategies used to reduce risk.
I do agree on your statement but in fact it is still depend on indicators because we couldn't eliminate whatever systems have nothing to do with math and figures. How those indicators form? We still have to agree it is all formed by math.

For instance like what I usually do on autocallable notes, we still have to fully rely on math or more precisely by using Monte Carlo simulations to build a portfolio, no matter what kind of instruments and only the return that make the different. Market movement forms indicator and it is the same when we do simulations. I don't find any different between that.

Another great and very simple strategies are to hedge between Spots and Futures for forward premium and discount. Of course there are certain rules to be follow, calculation such as trading cost, risk free interest rates and so on to take into account. Still to me, it has no difference from indicators which need multiple math confirmation and until these days, it never failed in the long run. I believe the only different are each individual to understand about what we can consider as a system.
  • #60
  • Jul 16, 2018 5:20pm Jul 16, 2018 5:20pm
For me the way to define a profitable system is the profits it generates over a period of time, the drawdown the systems gives and things like you would find in any trading statement sheet, in my opinion to trade successfully a trader has to take is positions based on is system but also on is opinion of what price is doing recently or a fundamental trader takes is positions based on news and information he haves. I see lots of people always saying back test this back test that but how do you you back test an opinion you cant. Also they say back test 2 or 3 years but for me a system as to be tested in different market conditions a pair could trend for 3 years and your system looks good but then it ranges for 2 years and you screwed, and this is way i think to be profitable in the long run you always have to trade with your opinion of the market. Trading the left side of your chart is one thing trading the right side is a completely different thing it and it ads lots of different things that you cant back test
0 traders viewing now