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  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 8:22pm Jul 15, 2018 2:36am | Edited 8:22pm
I know many of you may have already noticed this fact or known this by different names; but I thought I hadn't seen a thread dedicated to this (at least I haven't noticed). We wanna discuss Time + Distance!

I believe, the more the price proceeds non-stop in any given direction, the less energy or fuel it's left with in order to go further and, more importantly, to break a swing point (support/resistance).

The energy it has acquired in order to make a higher high or a lower low (i.e. to break through a support/resistance level) has a direct relationship with the time spent since the first failed attempt and an inverse relationship with the retracing distance. Please note that by «time» I mean the number of candles that appear between two events and not the time of the day etc.

So I invite you to share your thoughts and experiences in regard to the following thesis. It's a «discussion» forum after all
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If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #2
  • Jul 15, 2018 3:44am Jul 15, 2018 3:44am
Two things involved here mate. First, a great burst of momentum in price action and covering a much long distance in a short time is likely to wane and result in a turnaround to an area of value, e.g. S/R zone. Second, the chart you showed is very much likely an indication of a level for reloading a trade or profit taking, and could be technically explained as a retracement.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #3
  • Jul 15, 2018 4:16am Jul 15, 2018 4:16am
Quoting KeenPips
Two things involved here mate. First, a great burst of momentum in price action and covering a much long distance in a short time is likely to wane and result in a turnaround to an area of value, e.g. S/R zone. Second, the chart you showed is very much likely an indication of a level for reloading a trade or profit taking, and could be technically explained as a retracement. Trade safe and prosper. KP
Thank you for sharing your thought mate I'm in Australia too...

I was thinking how I could possibly use this tendency. So far I've come up with these answers:

  1. If I'm in a short position at the moment, I don't need to worry about when the best time is to exit the trade (i.e. take profit); because I have a good indication (i.e. a failed attack to the previous swing point). Instead of getting panic in the face of an unfavourable upward move, I'll wait and watch to see how the chart is going to react to the previous lower high knowing that I'll have a last chance to take profit at a good point (i.e. the end of the retracing move).
  2. If I'm flat (i.e. no open position) and I can see an out-of-fuel move, I can milk the move given that it's a high enough time frame. Who knows, the chart may even resume its previous move, turning out to be a much bigger move than a simple scalping.

If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #4
  • Jul 15, 2018 5:14am Jul 15, 2018 5:14am
Can it have any similarity to Gann angle....?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #5
  • Jul 15, 2018 10:45am Jul 15, 2018 10:45am
Hi there!.. interested take on technical analysis, I was wondering if I may get your opinion when using your method on renko charts with brick size 3 or 5pips, a chart example will be appreciated...
  • #6
  • Jul 15, 2018 10:51am Jul 15, 2018 10:51am
Quoting josephcom
I know many of you may have already noticed this fact or known this by different names; but I thought I hadn't seen a thread dedicated to this (at least I haven't noticed). I believe, the more the price proceeds non-stop in any given direction, the less energy or fuel it's left with in order to go further and, more importantly, to break a swing point (support/resistance). The energy it needs in order to make a higher high or a lower low (i.e. to break through a support/resistance level) has a direct relationship with the time spent since the first...
May I know, what’s the age of this trading system? If you are using this system for a long time; then please show your account history. Thanks in advance.
  • #7
  • Edited 12:20pm Jul 15, 2018 11:52am | Edited 12:20pm
Quoting MariaEduard
{quote} May I know, what’s the age of this trading system? If you are using this system for a long time; then please show your account history. Thanks in advance.
Hi Maria. This is not a system/strategy like I said in this post (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=11262898#post11262898). Rather, it can add value and depth to your analysis.
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #8
  • Jul 15, 2018 12:17pm Jul 15, 2018 12:17pm
Quoting dkrock
The rest of us call that momentum. It really isn't difficult to follow, but you probably won't do it with lines connecting historical trades. You have to do it with statistical methods because it involves analyzing the sample size of the data points. When the data begins to cluster, it is super easy to see. There is no energy really. Just convert the design to a parabolic curve. It is like throwing a ball up into the air. At some point it's velocity becomes 0.00 and it returns to earth. The market does not go in one direction until its apex, so...
What I am interested in, is to take «time» into consideration when we're analysing the so called momentum. I believe "time" can add great value to any analysis and honestly I've not seen a lot of discussions around this factor. It would be a good idea for members to share their observations/knowledge about this factor here in FF.
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If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #10
  • Jul 15, 2018 12:55pm Jul 15, 2018 12:55pm
Quoting josephcom
{quote} ... I was thinking how I could possibly use this tendency..
What you are observing is better explained with the knowledge of how markets work structurally. Those large unidirectional moves are simply one way dominante order flows. To better explain:

If all orders coming into the market are only buying...prices will rise to find sellers to match those buyers. Thus if no selling is available or if there is insufficient selling prices will rise until the selling can balance and satisfy the buying orders. This applies both to heavy and light volume days...a further example:

If a market (pick your favorite)...has many buy orders at 100 but the sell orders are clustered at 150 (with little or nothing in between) The price will instantly shoot up to 150 so the buyers and sellers can transact until all are satisfied (or transactions are completed)….IF the buyers stop placing orders and still more sellers remain, price will drop again to find buyers...and vise versa.

Those big long candles that have "energy" are quite the opposite...they LACK opposing volume and thus price moves rapidly to find the other side of the market where the transactions take place and you will see the candles get smaller again as the back and forth ensues.

The idea of "support" or "resistance" is only levels where participants have places their orders on one side of the market or the other. Whether or not price moves through or reverses is simply a matter of which side has more volume. "Resistance" holds = more selling volume or lack of buying volume. "Resistance" breaks = overwhelming buying volume that is able to absorbe the sells and continue.

The best way to take advantage of these areas is to learn and understand how to "see" the order flow present inside those candles you (and all of us) watch. It is not a "system" or "method" but minute by minute observation of how the price reacts to order flow and volume as it comes through a computer server called "The Market".
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  • #11
  • Jul 15, 2018 1:18pm Jul 15, 2018 1:18pm
Quoting DonPato
{quote} What you are observing is better explained with the knowledge of how markets work structurally. Those large unidirectional moves are simply one way dominante order flows. To better explain: If all orders coming into the market are only buying...prices will rise to find sellers to match those buyers. Thus if no selling is available or if there is insufficient selling prices will rise until the selling can balance and satisfy the buying orders. This applies both to heavy and light volume days...a further example: If a market (pick your favorite)...has...
Thank you DonPato. I know the basics, believe me But I'm not talking about WHYs, rather I'm sharing WHAT I've observed and the important factor is, when I'm talking about «time», I'm talking about the number of candles between two events (and not things like the time of the day etc).

For example, look at any ABCD pattern you like and you immediately see that, with regard to time (i.e. the number of candles), either BCD=AB or ABC=CD (depending on the momentum). Have you ever used the time analysis tools your trading platform have provided us with? Take a look at the following pics:
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If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #12
  • Jul 15, 2018 1:22pm Jul 15, 2018 1:22pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Oh. Cannot help you with time. Either the banks and government are open for business for either currency of a pair, or they are closed. Closed banks are dead hours. That is the only "time" I concern myself with. I follow the money the banks trade. If they are not trading, neither am I. You realize the US dollar banks were on holiday hours during your screenshot, so duh, yeah, it took a long time. European banks were closed June 29, Canadian banks were closed July 2, and US banks were closed July 4. That is what I mean by "time". I do not...
Thank you. There's a big misunderstanding here. By time I don't mean the time of the day and things like that I mean the number of candles that appear between two events. Take a look here (https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=11263627#post11263627)
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #13
  • Jul 15, 2018 1:38pm Jul 15, 2018 1:38pm
Quoting dkrock
{quote} First you said time was momentum, now you are saying it is the "sample size". I hope you understand we cannot follow your logic when you use the wrong terminology. Of course, sample size means EVERYTHING in trading. 95% of people draw stupid lines to connect dead trades and then try to guess what the market will do by relying on past trades. LOL. What they are saying, whether they realize it or not, is the market is going to do the EXACT same thing it did last time, which is impossible. So, they lose, and they lose a lot. Once you start...
OK, like I said at the first post, I knew you may put different titles on this. Now that we have a common language and terminology, the big picture is getting more clear (at least to me and others who're also new to this concept). Where's your thread dkrock?
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #14
  • Edited 2:19pm Jul 15, 2018 2:03pm | Edited 2:19pm
Quoting josephcom
{quote}... Have you ever used the time analysis tools your trading platform have provided us with? ...
I have tried extensively to find a consistently repeatable pattern in time/price relationship but to no avail. The only thing I have been able to reliably count on is that time (as Einstein discovered) is variable. I believe this is because market participants have infinitely varying time constraints in their positions thus the volume required to move price from one point to another is also variable and under no particular behavioral pattern (that I've been able to distinguish).

However that does not mean that time is NOT an important and fundamentally structural component of the market. I my way of viewing the market it is THE first component of structure. Many things affect WHEN participants chose to participate, and time is one of the most fundamental (IMHO). However to accurately forecast WHEN a move will take place has eluded me for a great while.

I have resorted to using (in my day trading) constant volume and/or constant tick charts to lessen the impact of time on my trading. While these charts still use time as the x axis, the candle doesn't complete until a certain number of transactions or volume has transacted in the market. Thus the time component is variable with the volume and eliminates the usual "noise" in price/time charts (with constant time on the x axis) is eliminated. If it takes an hour or 30 seconds for the volume to form a single candle...so be it. This provides me a more accurate view into the order flow/volume/price relationship that allow more accurate participation at swing points (which are what I seek out to trade).

Time is an essential component to all our trading however using it to forecast WHEN to engage is extremely elusive and in my experience too frustrating to pursue. Bottom line I came up with was: It is virtually impossible to forecast the entire market based on time because of such varying differences in goals and time constraints for reaching those goals. However I am open to explore this issue further and will be reading what others here have to say with great interest.
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  • #15
  • Jul 15, 2018 3:38pm Jul 15, 2018 3:38pm
Yes great thread I am also interested in timing the markets. I have been working with the Golden ration and other fib levels but I'm not totally convinced the markets can be timed. On the EURUSD monthly chart below I have drawn lines (solid green) from the low of June 2010 using the standard Golden ratio of 1.618 and adding stochastic to help identify possible turning points.

Changing down to the weekly chart really does impress see what you think.
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All charts/ideas based on UK time zone
  • #16
  • Jul 15, 2018 6:58pm Jul 15, 2018 6:58pm
Quoting sponge
Yes great thread I am also interested in timing the markets. I have been working with the Golden ration and other fib levels but I'm not totally convinced the markets can be timed. On the EURUSD monthly chart below I have drawn lines (solid green) from the low of June 2010 using the standard Golden ratio of 1.618 and adding stochastic to help identify possible turning points. Changing down to the weekly chart really does impress see what you think. {image} {image}
Thank you for sharing your viewpoint. In my opinion, ignoring time (i.e. the number of candles between two events) is a mistake. As to the pics you shared: one thing I've observed is you cannot project time lines on too long distances; I mean the best result is when you compare the last move with its very immediate previous one. This is why I found this kind of analysis most useful for ABCD patterns.

Let us know in case you've observed other (different) facts. Thank you...
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If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #17
  • Jul 15, 2018 7:33pm Jul 15, 2018 7:33pm
good thread.

for a very long time been advocating that someone who will create a range bar version of this for metatrader>>>> https://backtothefuturetrading.com/flux-store-old/logik-hybrid-renko/

that way you can square price with time and get a moving average cross (or whatever other indicator/system you want) that actually works

that would be the simple easy way of doing things methinks

it is a very simple indicator in theory

2 cents
  • #18
  • Jul 15, 2018 7:38pm Jul 15, 2018 7:38pm
Quoting dagoods
good thread. for a very long time been advocating that someone who will create a range bar version of this for metatrader>>>> https://backtothefuturetrading.com/flux-store-old/logik-hybrid-renko/ that way you can square price with time and get a moving average cross (or whatever other indicator/system you want) that actually works that would be the simple easy way of doing things methinks it is a very simple indicator in theory 2 cents
Looks interesting. Honestly, currently I got no time to code an indicator. However, I've bookmarked the page for a later time. After I've coded it, I'll let you know.
If you can't measure it, you can't improve it!
  • #19
  • Jul 15, 2018 7:42pm Jul 15, 2018 7:42pm
https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/185015

the formula and what the creator said about the indicator's formula is there, if anyone is interested. Again I'd think to use range hybrid rather than renko hybrid though.

2 cents
  • #20
  • Jul 15, 2018 7:51pm Jul 15, 2018 7:51pm
Quoting josephcom
I know many of you may have already noticed this fact or known this by different names; but I thought I hadn't seen a thread dedicated to this (at least I haven't noticed). We wanna discuss Time + Distance! I believe, the more the price proceeds non-stop in any given direction, the less energy or fuel it's left with in order to go further and, more importantly, to break a swing point (support/resistance). The energy it needs in order to make a higher high or a lower low (i.e. to break through a support/resistance level) has a direct relationship...
needed energy = T/D *(X)


T = Time

D= Distance

X =?

Can you tell us what X stands for?
how does that help us trade?

needed energy... needed for what?



not sure i follow what it is you are attempting to do. If you can explain a bit better i think the thread will have more posts from those more knowledgeable then ourselves. TYIA
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