The Killing Floor

There's a few good builders out there, I use fxdreema.

It isnt going so well with your trading sis.ypjus you dont cut your loosers and you are not stacking as you have talked abaut it is ok too stay in some loosers when you are in a strong trend ore it looks like it will turn around but some loosers are just loosers and they can go and go and go against you 100`ds and yes 1000`ds of pips and never turn around....keep the loosers short and winners shorter but make sure you have many many many more winners than loosers that is scalping.....

I know its your first week and all soo i know you are a good trader so i guess it will turn around for you i just had a little input

Loving the system so far, have been making consistent profits with it. Main problems I'm having (and I'm sure others can relate) are that I'm extremely tempted to over trade and I'm closing losers too fast, not letting the trend do its thing. Still, all props to you use Sis for this system, it's awesome!

I am the same, sometimes, i'll stack it long with still some orders short, and close the shorts, because it looks to be moving long, only for it to whipsaw and it would have TP on the shorts and then taken the longs too.

Remember the stats, each trade placed has a ~90% chance of hitting TP within 24 hours, I try keeping this in the back of my head

Which MA is used for this method? Sma? EMA? Smoothie?

im using SMA

A key prerequisite to this system, and most in general, is the quality of the service/product offered by the broker. This includes average spreads, commission, execution of trades, liquidity, etc. The spreads and commissions especially boost your winners and minimize your losers. I've tweaked Sys' system and am taking extremely small TPs, usually between 1 and 1.5 pips. What this is allowing me to do is trade far more often and achieve higher daily profit numbers. If you compare my TE with Sys's, you'll see that his time in trade is ~92% vs. my 24%.

It's not all apples to apples however, as he is using a U.S.-based broker with lower leverage (50:1) compared with my 400:1 and is trading live vs. my demo. Order execution and spreads may not be identical. The tell of the tape however lies with his 34 closed trades in 5 days vs my 38 in 2 days. I'm averaging 19 trades a day vs his ~7 (almost 3x his frequency). The statistics he provides cannot be denied with the price/time cycles, however a good broker with rock bottom costs can allow you to do things most cannot. If you want to win more, you need to trade more. You will lose more, but the ratio should hold provided you stick to the game plan and cut your losers to get into winners.

If I didn't have an ECN with extremely tight spreads and $2/$100k rips, I would not be able to do what I am doing. My average time in trade is usually no longer than 5-10 minutes, with the longest typically open under 1 hour. Minimizing the time it takes to babysit and scale into a trade has done wonders to my win ratio.

Assuming S is gone from here for 90 odd days - curious whether anyone has run their own tests on the data? S never mentioned how many years his stats from the first post go back.

Rainingpips i am also trading for 1-3 pips mostly and i just have a coupple of quick questions for you sometimes i get a spike against me that takes out many trades of profit if i cut it at once if i let it run it can come back eventually but also keep going against me so i have been forced too take some big losses once in a while i see you have 38 trades with only two losses with one pip how do you stay away from 5-10 pips spikes ore even more and withch timeframe are you trading...I am not a total neewbee been trading for 4 years and are proffiteble but sometimes i give back too the market all too much...

The type of scalping I am doing does not work well with volatile spikes resultant from news. You can certainly trade after news, as PA returns to logical patterns off the EMAs. My largest drawdowns have been no more than about 5-6 pips, and those I normally scale in to build larger lot sizes for a trade (adjusting TPs manually to the original trade's TP). Unfortunately, I think I have been extraordinarily lucky and fully expected to cut many more trades than I have so far. I thought I had more losers, but the TE only shows two: one for -0.1 pips and the other -4.4 pips. Next week should generate at least 95 trades or so, and we'll have a better grasp on losers/drawdown now that I have the broker situation stabilized. I went through 2 or 3 different iterations of this TE last week due to changes in leverage and commission structure.

All the trades I took were either the subsequent bar following PA breaking an EMA or a retrace back and bounce off an EMA. I'm not really taking signals from the 10 EMA however, and instead focus on the 50 and 200 EMAs. These have proven to be MUCH higher probability especially for the retrace bounces. These particular events generate VERY high probability 1-3 pip moves. My broker setup is the only thing allowing me to do this. Any rips higher than $2/$100k traded wouldn't permit the 1 pip TPs.

Mage999, I have found if you follow the rules of this system, you should generate very high probability winners. In order to know for sure whether this is really working, we'll have to generate around 400-500 trades to break the 95% confidence interval according to his chart. Should be about mid-August. If this is consistent by then, I'll go live and switch to a live TE (with display restrictions similar to Sys'). I am already very optimistic however, as the 'Boosting Win Rate Through Management' post showed a 98.78% probability of profit and i'm @ 94.73% as of Friday.

Thank you very much for your feedback raining pips it is funny i also use 10 ema also 35,50 and 200 like much like you and trade bounces of them with the trend i also have a insidebar setup that i get 5-10 trades of everyday good setups togheter with linnear regression that tells me the short term trend i only take them if the insidebar is in the same direction of trend and no more than 4-5 candle later you get the breake out theese trades gives usually a little more pips than the bounces....I will post the indis here...The best bounces i think is bollinger and EMA confluence...And for broker i fund that ic markets are the best that i have found with a fixed commision of 7 dollars pr.lot traded and 0 spread on majors and 0-0.6 on Minors if you found any better than that please share here is a link for them if you are a scalper:http://icmarkets.com/?camp=20604 i dont either trade bouces of the 10 but in a down trend and i get a close over the 10 and a close below i open a trade on first candle after close below and the opposite for uptrend...Question do you close out the trades at once if they go against you like 2-3 pips ore do you sometimes wait for it too come back...I have done both and suffered two margicalls where broker kicked me out of trade i have recovered after many days of trading but i really try and dont let thet happen again...I am trading 0.78 lots and have a stoploss at 50 dollars and try too get 20-25 dollars on each win but mostly they are 5-10 dollars 0.8-1.5 pips i have noticed that if you want more than 2 pips you often need too wait for next candle and i like the trade too be under a minute...I use a period converter and are trading 3 min offline charts i found that too get the most valid setups and quick returns....The entries are easy its when too cut the losses that are difficult with this Kind of trading i have the same average loss as average win but is one week since i opened my account and that can also be a little lucky that i havent taken a big loss i have been down over 50% but with trend i have waited for it too turn and it has become a winner instead i think its best too take a loss at 5 pips ore more....When you say 2/100 k traded does that mean that you only pay 2 dollars pr lot traded if so i would really like too know witch broker offer that....Would appriciate if you would answer my questions...I have 73% winrate since open account a week ago with my last account that i payed more for trades(spread) i had 80% winrate for a long time more than that over a long time is a bonus in my eyes so if you can stay over 90 youare good..

Just too clarify i usually close out my losses long before hitting 50 dollars butsometimes i let them run a bit too see if they turn with the trend and they often doo....that is my big dilemma close out ore let it run....

Win rate doesn't matter as much as probability of profit. The way to control that is through scaling into a trade and cutting a loser. For the majority of my trades (the current TE trades isn't the best reference for this, as I was playing around with the lots) is to go into an 'event' (trade opportunity) with ~1% of your balance/margin. In my experience, you will know very quickly whether you are in a winner or a loser. The tell tale sign is that PA will quickly break the EMA again in the opposite direction after an EMA test or without one (and just go through). I've posted an example below that shows both concepts of scaling in and then cutting a potential loser and turning it into a winner.



In the screen shot, you'll see PA break both the 10 and 200 EMA. You'd make your first 1% entry with a 1 pip TP, which would be quickly hit (that first green candle after PA closes above 10 EMA was worth about 7 potential pips, with a 4 pip drawn down). Then you could come back in after the next 10 EMA bounce with another 1 pip TP at the next 10 EMA test (second green arrow). Lots of PA testing an EMA is normally indicative of a reversal, so be careful. This is seen mid-event and then results in a break (red arrow). This could have been potential loss of 1.6 pips, but would/should have been closed quickly to minimize. Trading the 10 EMA will produce more trades, but less 'high probability' winners. Ideally, you'll scale into winning event with 4-6% (4-6 trades) and your losers will be only 1%'ers.

Magne999, I messaged you with the broker and procedure to acquire the $2/$100k rips. And yes, that is $2 for 1 standard lot.

Must say sys.pus your extremly good at moneymanagement you are down 110 pips and up 0.5% on the profit....Smells a little as MG but well done i take my hat of...

Here are two more indicators i use for confirmation of trades the first one is the most relible currencie strenght indicator i have found so you dont get into a trade where the bacecurrencie is not in synch....The other is a volume indi that color the candle red if it goes down on high volume and green on up on high volume after a colored candle up ore down the chance of it too reverse are larger than without i use that a lot on the bounces...

If a coder could code a alert on the candles indicator i would really apriciate it

I opened a trade explorer that i will trade for 3 days before going live i did 10 trades today trying 20 trades tomorrow and 30 on Thursday if i make it i took one big loss today that could have eaily been avoided for 7 pips it came fast and just went and went against me i am going too try with a stoploss of 2pips so i have to win 3 of 4 to be in profit i think that will pan out i have a trade duration of 4 min so the trades are pretty quick...We will se possible i blow the 10000 account also....lol

Magne999, are you scaling into positions or going into trades with one large lot size?