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Learning From Unsuccessful Mouteki Trades - The Search for Filters...

  • #41
  • Edited 5:43pm Oct 4, 2006 5:40pm | Edited 5:43pm
Could this have really been a signal to not go long on this one? Even though it worked out, let's do the investigation.

Qualifier #1 was right, #2 was half right (didn't open above previous bar close as the one previous was lower), #3 was right, #4 was partially right (since open was lower, the prior two opens were not lower).

So in this case MOST of the qualifiers were right, just partially not, so maybe good buy.

I like the #2 and #4 filters the most since you can mainly see them on the chart. #1 doesn't seem to be the case a lot just looking in the past. #3 is too complicated...


Ooops correct chart....

http://picnac.com/images/3143gbpusd.gif
  • #42
  • Oct 4, 2006 5:45pm Oct 4, 2006 5:45pm
Quoting llambert3
Could this have really been a signal to not go long on this one? Even though it worked out, let's do the investigation.

Qualifier #1 was right, #2 was half right (didn't open above previous bar close as they were the same), #3 was right, #4 was partially right (since open was same, the prior two opens were not lower).

So in this case MOST of the qualifiers were right, just partially not, so maybe good buy.

I like the #2 and #4 filters the most since you can mainly see them on the chart. #1 doesn't seem to be the case a lot just looking in the past. #3 is too complicated...
Hi llambert3,

The filters that involve the open and close of the bars being above/below, may not apply very well to forex. Loki mentioned this in the other thread.

The reason for the TD open and closes being above/below was mainly for gap ups and downs, but since forex is pretty much 24 hours, then we're not going to get the gaps that you would see in the stock market, for example.
  • #43
  • Oct 4, 2006 5:55pm Oct 4, 2006 5:55pm
Quoting daerus
Hi llambert3,

The filters that involve the open and close of the bars being above/below, may not apply very well to forex. Loki mentioned this in the other thread.

The reason for the TD open and closes being above/below was mainly for gap ups and downs, but since forex is pretty much 24 hours, then we're not going to get the gaps that you would see in the stock market, for example.
Well great, that hurts since I like that one.. Still it does appear if the candle goes above the prior candle's high (the one that breaks the tl or vice/versa) this is a good sign.
  • #44
  • Oct 4, 2006 6:01pm Oct 4, 2006 6:01pm
Quoting llambert3
Well great, that hurts since I like that one.. Still it does appear if the candle goes above the prior candle's high (the one that breaks the tl or vice/versa) this is a good sign.
Right. I would still take the qualifiers as valid signs, just not take into account too much the open/close of the bars. Not in the forex market anyway.
  • #45
  • Oct 4, 2006 6:08pm Oct 4, 2006 6:08pm
I'd love to post some of my charts but when I push "prtScrn" nothing happens. I'm not sure how else to save a screen shot.

I use CMS Visual Trader. It's a great charting system but I don't think I would ever use them to trade live with. I use another broker for that.

I do feel akward when drawing the sup/dem lines, perhaps I'm not doing it right but I have read and re-read the instructions several times to make sure. Can't figure out what I'm doing wrong if anything.

I noticed on a lot of the lines I draw on other currencies they hit the PP but never on the pair that I trade... go figure
  • #46
  • Oct 4, 2006 6:32pm Oct 4, 2006 6:32pm
hi....


I think as I mentioned in another thread.....if this was share trading you may have a chance with the filtering but being Forex where ..News...economic data.. and some countries politician making statements ( like Korea ) I think we must face the fact that no amount filtering is going to help a great deal in getting the trade right...what it might do is make you feel more confident to get into a trade after that its out of your hands....

With the idea of waiting till the price moves past the low/high on the previous bar you run the risk that the price may show some consolidation for a few bars and if you follow the 30pips ( I think I read that somewhere) stop-loss idea you could be stopped out just due to consolidation movement and then it moves in the direction again where if you had got in at the earlier time you may be at the top end of the consolidation range so avoiding being stopped out..

I have used the idea but only when the low and the open were a few points apart ( say less than 10pips ).
  • #47
  • Oct 4, 2006 6:32pm Oct 4, 2006 6:32pm
Quoting FiboFan
I'd love to post some of my charts but when I push "prtScrn" nothing happens. I'm not sure how else to save a screen shot.
Hit prtscrn, open MS Paint, click edit then paste, click file then save as, select jpg as the file format, upload to image shack, link here.

If that doesn't work here is a shareware program.

http://www.download.com/Screen-Grabb...-10403355.html
  • #48
  • Oct 4, 2006 7:20pm Oct 4, 2006 7:20pm
Quoting Angler
hi....


I think as I mentioned in another thread.....if this was share trading you may have a chance with the filtering but being Forex where ..News...economic data.. and some countries politician making statements ( like Korea ) I think we must face the fact that no amount filtering is going to help a great deal in getting the trade right...what it might do is make you feel more confident to get into a trade after that its out of your hands....

With the idea of waiting till the price moves past the low/high on the previous bar you run the risk that the price may show some consolidation for a few bars and if you follow the 30pips ( I think I read that somewhere) stop-loss idea you could be stopped out just due to consolidation movement and then it moves in the direction again where if you had got in at the earlier time you may be at the top end of the consolidation range so avoiding being stopped out..

I have used the idea but only when the low and the open were a few points apart ( say less than 10pips ).
Your s/l is a calculation, not just 30 pips, but you'd still use Mouteki method of s/l. If you get in after the move, your s/l should be (in my opinion) where the s/l would be if you got in at the right time. So if it was a 30 pip s/l and you got in 10 pips later, yes it is true you may now lose 40, BUT supposedly you'd be in a better and more secure trade now that you know it broke that high.

To each his own, but if you'd followed one simple filter today, you wouldn't have sold the gbp/usd (like almost all of us Mouteki followers did), and be out the 45/50 pips.
  • #49
  • Oct 4, 2006 7:57pm Oct 4, 2006 7:57pm
Quoting daerus
Ok, I was actually incorrect about the selling pressure in that chart, it actually produced a valid signal. I was just eyeballing it. Next time I'll make sure before I make any assumptions No system is perfect, right?


http://picnac.com/images/5983sellingpressure.gif
I just wanted to say that, i believe the reason the usd/jpy failed as far as i know, is because that north korean nuke news came out. When something like that hits, the technicals don't matter anymore. Everyone and his brother started to sell the yen.
  • #50
  • Oct 4, 2006 8:07pm Oct 4, 2006 8:07pm
Is there, for any reasons, a hierarchy among the qualifiers? Like, qualifier #1 is stronger than #2, etc. etc.

Thanks!
  • #51
  • Oct 4, 2006 8:19pm Oct 4, 2006 8:19pm
Dear All,

I think we should never follow any system trading blindly... we should know that fundamental is out there and can make a big move.. even all your system trading say short signal, but nonfarmpayrol is worst than the expectation, sure you will fail anyway..

But i agree with some of you, Mouteki is give me the best result in my trading. I use it for my entry, but i combine it with tlatomi and hama trading system..

also i look at fibbonaci...

to make me more confidence...

has any one here use the projection pips and stop lost by Mouteki with full discipline? how is the result..?
Attached Image
Simplicity your Life
  • #52
  • Oct 4, 2006 8:30pm Oct 4, 2006 8:30pm
Now ain't that pretty

Quoting stevenali
Dear All,

I think we should never follow any system trading blindly... we should know that fundamental is out there and can make a big move.. even all your system trading say short signal, but nonfarmpayrol is worst than the expectation, sure you will fail anyway..

But i agree with some of you, Mouteki is give me the best result in my trading. I use it for my entry, but i combine it with tlatomi and hama trading system..

also i look at fibbonaci...

to make me more confidence...

has any one here use the projection pips and stop lost by Mouteki with full discipline? how is the result..?
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #53
  • Oct 4, 2006 8:39pm Oct 4, 2006 8:39pm
It's good to have filters, but you have to take bad trades as men.


I'm not the first who said this, but i repeat it everytime i have a chance. The power of a trader doesn't come from the technical strategy, it comes from his mental state and money management.

Don't expect to have a 100% strategy and don't get upset when you have a couple of wins in a row.

When you select a filter you have to be carefull. It's easy to say "if i'd used this filter i wouldn't had this bad trade". A couple of skiped trades doesn't make a good filter. You miss some bad trades, but you might also might miss good trades and overall you loose.

When a trader has some bad trades he start to search for filters, for other things. The strategy might be good, but do you expect to work everytime?
Try hard, think fast, die young
  • #54
  • Oct 4, 2006 8:50pm Oct 4, 2006 8:50pm
Quoting dof
It's good to have filters, but you have to take bad trades as men.


I'm not the first who said this, but i repeat it everytime i have a chance. The power of a trader doesn't come from the technical strategy, it comes from his mental state and money management.

Don't expect to have a 100% strategy and don't get upset when you have a couple of wins in a row.

When you select a filter you have to be carefull. It's easy to say "if i'd used this filter i wouldn't had this bad trade". A couple of skiped trades doesn't make a good filter. You miss some bad trades, but you might also might miss good trades and overall you loose.

When a trader has some bad trades he start to search for filters, for other things. The strategy might be good, but do you expect to work everytime?
I must agree with all you said...
it's not WIN or Lose Game....

it's a Win and Lose Game, it doesn't matter how much you lose.. if your profit is biger...

We must try with our system, and maybe just focus on 2 or 3 pair, if we have good discipline, i think we will have some good intuition which help us to fight the market

... like when you learn KARATE... you must discipline in all traning day.. maybe for a year..

but we know.. when the KARATE MAN got a fight in olympiade..... they use their feeling too... which built by strong dicipline for years....

so enjoy our mouteki... got discipline ... and collect pips,
since sunday... i have collected 490 pips in GBP and CHF...

good job Mouteki!!
Simplicity your Life
  • #55
  • Oct 4, 2006 9:00pm Oct 4, 2006 9:00pm
Were on the right track with these filters, but like DOF said, we have to be willing to take a loss as well.
Some people seem hesatant to widen a stop. Why? Just adjust your position size accordingly. Personally I feel much better knowing I'm only going to lose a set % but still have a stop wide enough to win the trade. I'd much rather win a smaller dollar amount but have a higher overall win %.

By the way in the Demark Book there are actually 3 methods for calculating Profits. One we already know. The other just use the close of the Highest or Lowest bar instead of the High or Low to calculate your target. It will be a little smaller but still a projected target instead of just shaving off PIPs on a whem.
  • #56
  • Oct 4, 2006 10:33pm Oct 4, 2006 10:33pm
Quoting dof
It's good to have filters, but you have to take bad trades as men.


I'm not the first who said this, but i repeat it everytime i have a chance. The power of a trader doesn't come from the technical strategy, it comes from his mental state and money management.

Don't expect to have a 100% strategy and don't get upset when you have a couple of wins in a row.

When you select a filter you have to be carefull. It's easy to say "if i'd used this filter i wouldn't had this bad trade". A couple of skiped trades doesn't make a good filter. You miss some bad trades, but you might also might miss good trades and overall you loose.

When a trader has some bad trades he start to search for filters, for other things. The strategy might be good, but do you expect to work everytime?
We are only trying to improve our trades based on a great method that Mouteki decided to share. We do have to accept losses and try to get bigger gains, I agree. Since Mouteki can't or decided not to share exactly the system he uses, we must try to better our trades for ourselves. I see nothing wrong with that. We noticed, and some pointed out, that some of Mouteki's charts he ignored some points on the charts and why he possibly did that, and even some reversals. Maybe he can't share that because he is getting paid for his strategy somewhere else, I don't know. I haven't read that from him. Maybe we are test subjects to see who eventually gets it..LOL

However we decide to use Mouteki's strategy at this point is up for grabs. And here on this great forum, we are sharing anything we can find to filter out bad trades. We can't win them all, that is a fact. We are just looking at the trades we lose to see if there was a reason behind it. Maybe it is news, but maybe it is something else Mouteki couldn't or decided not to share. That's all.

After a year of fighting and looking for a strategy to help me trade, this is the only one that gave me hope. Just responding to why we are doing what we are doing, at least in my mind anyway. Certainly not trying to be rude in my post, so please don't take it that way.
  • #57
  • Oct 4, 2006 11:44pm Oct 4, 2006 11:44pm
Quoting MaXeY
This Trade Was Failure...

so After we know the filter (We should shorted if the price go 1 under the previous candel low)
Just to add my 2 pips to this discussion.....

I agree

Waiting for a break of the previous low (like what you're suggesting) to confirm a trendbreak isn't a new idea at all. Probably one of the oldest and very effective.

In fact, the very "Mouteki method" of trading is one of the oldest tricks in the book. That's why it works so well.
"The market will rally from this or lower levels"
  • #58
  • Oct 5, 2006 12:21am Oct 5, 2006 12:21am
Quoting llambert3
Could this have really been a signal to not go long on this one? Even though it worked out, let's do the investigation.

Qualifier #1 was right, #2 was half right (didn't open above previous bar close as the one previous was lower), #3 was right, #4 was partially right (since open was lower, the prior two opens were not lower).

So in this case MOST of the qualifiers were right, just partially not, so maybe good buy.

I like the #2 and #4 filters the most since you can mainly see them on the chart. #1 doesn't seem to be the case a lot just looking in the past. #3 is too complicated...


Ooops correct chart....

http://picnac.com/images/3143gbpusd.gif
This trade is valid. The article says if any of the 4 qualifiers is true than the breakout is true. If you use this qualifiers I'd say use at least two, but here you have 3 correct. My saying is don't let your winners turn out loosers, so I'd always put a +10 pips SL once price goes 40 pips in our way. This is a great mouteki rule in my opinion.
  • #59
  • Oct 5, 2006 12:24am Oct 5, 2006 12:24am
Quoting ART_1_
i think its a good idea to look for filters. with this filter which was described in the first post i would have avoided those losses which i had yesterday.
If you went short you made a mistake because the open candle was not below the trend line. The long is a valid signal.

The second chart you have posted... I'd probably taken the trade, you can't have a holy grail. Losses will come.
  • #60
  • Oct 5, 2006 1:02am Oct 5, 2006 1:02am
Quoting llambert3
To each his own, but if you'd followed one simple filter today, you wouldn't have sold the gbp/usd (like almost all of us Mouteki followers did), and be out the 45/50 pips.
llambert3, I don't see a short there ??
Also, what is that one simple filter ?
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