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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #5,781
  • Jul 9, 2018 7:32pm Jul 9, 2018 7:32pm
Quoting strat
PASR {quote}..... you mean you can't SEE the ""2"" pull back in the 1 - 2 - 3 trend? ......

Now I might be able to see...

Thanks
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #5,782
  • Jul 9, 2018 7:40pm Jul 9, 2018 7:40pm
Quoting darko2010
https://youtu.be/TQMbvJNRpLE

Good lesson. Trading is 10% method and 90 % psychology. Found a sound method...now we have to concentrate on psychology...
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #5,783
  • Jul 10, 2018 9:26am Jul 10, 2018 9:26am
PASR

Quoting Frank0
{quote} Strat, Would it hold true to have all three of your shadows moving in the same direction? (BB, B, and worker) Or can you get away with having only the shadow you are trading and the next higher time frame in the same direction? Can the shadow lines of the higher time frames be considered as support and resistance? Thanks Frank Ps...When you have time, look up Al Hendrickson. He was an on call guitarist in my time. Any tune, Any key, Any style. Good friend.
This tells me you don't understand the Power of Time Frames.

The answer is long and complicated because it depends on the time frame being traded and the trade strategy (Basic PASR, PASR Swing or PASR Trend) being employed.

The short answer is yes, in theory and all things being equal, but, by the time the Strat Shadows are all aligned across all 3 time frames, PRICE is already in a rip roaring trend.

If you understood the Power of Time Frames, you would know that the shorter time frame Strat Shadow will turn/move before the next higher time frame which is why we focus on the Strat Shadow of the time frame being traded.

The Strat Shadow acts as DYNAMIC Support and Resistance across all time frames
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,784
  • Jul 10, 2018 9:47am Jul 10, 2018 9:47am
Strat,

Got it ....Thanks.

Particularly: The Strat Shadow acts as DYNAMIC Support and Resistance across all time frames

Frank
  • #5,785
  • Jul 10, 2018 12:09pm Jul 10, 2018 12:09pm
PASR and VOLATILITY

Since the Market is slow today...................

Why volatility is important to my PASR trading.

Simply put, volatility is the movement of PRICE over a given period of time.

Volatility is the result of many things brought about by the perception of VALUE by those trading the Market. This is anything which changes the fundamental relationship between supply and demand such as geopolitical events or natural disasters. The greater the change, the greater the volatility.

Volatility feeds on itself due to the interactions of humans (traders) and their psychology. This is easily seen when GREED and FEAR are driving PRICE as a result of crowd behavior causing traders to “trade with the herd”. FEAR is the most powerful of all trading emotions and is why you see PRICE falling much faster than it rises. Uncertainty of where PRICE is going in unstable situations is, in itself, a cause of volatility.

Volatility feeding on itself is even more true when we consider the mechanics of trading. Fast PRICE movements trigger Stops and pending Orders thus increasing volatility. When PRICE, for whatever reason, is falling like a concrete balloon and therefore showing increased downside PRICE volatility, all hell breaks loose among traders.

This causes traders, including the Big Boys, to be upside down as the fast downward movement of PRICE slices through any profits and moves them into a loss position. The initial reaction is to “”freeze”” but this is quickly expelled as losses start mounting exponentially. At this point, PANIC sets in triggering FEAR and the Big Boys quickly sell their positions. This, in turn, causes PRICE to drop even further and faster (increased volatility) which then causes other traders to sell which again increases volatility. This is the “domino” effect of volatility feeding on volatility.

This volatility then causes VOLUME to increase. Increased volume is what drives PRICE and in a volatile situation, increases volatility. When I traded Futures and Commodities, volume was key to analysis. In simple terms, high volatility is with high volume while low volatility is with low volume.

An increase in volume was usually a sign that volatility was about to increase. Unfortunately, volume is worth NOTHING in Forex as there is no central trading exchange and the volume we see on our charts is only that of our individual broker which is as much use to us as forex traders as fly shit in a pepper pot!

What does help us in Forex, a little, is ATR – Average True Range. This helps us see volatility over a given time period. For example, if the 10 day ATR of a given pair is 146 pips and we are in a trade generating 140 pips, we know to be ready to exit stage left at the sign of any weakness. Similarly, if we have only generated 70 pips, we can expect, “”IF”” PRICE is at the same level of volatility, to move further. The point to remember is “Average” - each day, volume is different, which therefore causes different volatility so using ATR is not exact.

Some “experts”, “gurus” and self-proclaimed “authors and talking heads” say that volatility is cyclical and moves in cycles which can be measured and forecast. In all my 36+ years of trading I have never been able to “see” these cycles let alone forecast them. What I do know is that a period of high volatility is almost always followed by a similar period of low volatility.

Knowing the condition of “volatility” we are trading is very important as it influences and affects our Trading PLAN.

Over the years, my trading style has changed and even though my strategy is, and always will be, PASR, my trade selection is based on volatility as much as PASR. I no longer have the patience or desire to have my margin tied up in pedantic pairs like EURCHF and EURGBP which move at the lightning speed of a ten ton tortoise with 3 legs. I have much better things to do with my funds and time which is why I released my volatility list. Certainly when trading M5, I need to only trade the top 5 or so on that list which, in addition to making a short “watch” list, produces profits for me in the 2 hours trading I restrict myself to on M5.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,786
  • Jul 10, 2018 1:21pm Jul 10, 2018 1:21pm
Quoting strat
PASR and VOLATILITY Since the Market is slow today................... Why volatility is important to my PASR trading. Simply put, volatility is the movement of PRICE over a given period of time. Volatility is the result of many things brought about by the perception of VALUE by those trading the Market. This is anything which changes the fundamental relationship between supply and demand such as geopolitical events or natural disasters. The greater the change, the greater the volatility. Volatility feeds on itself due to the interactions of humans...

Excellent!

I pick the first 12 of your volatility list and start trading it. (I just filter it for only have like 3 currencies of GBP###, 3 of EUR##, etc..)

But i have a question about your last quote of M5. So, in your time... you only check "GBPNZD, GBPAUD, GBPJPY, GBPCAD, EURNZD" ?

In there exist something that i can check the ATR in the present? (im talking about a picture that you upload about the ATR LIST) Thank you Strat!
  • #5,787
  • Jul 10, 2018 3:20pm Jul 10, 2018 3:20pm
M5 PASR Trend Trading

Quoting HappyTrend
{quote} Excellent! I pick the first 12 of your volatility list and start trading it. (I just filter it for only have like 3 currencies of GBP###, 3 of EUR##, etc..) But i have a question about your last quote of M5. So, in your time... you only check "GBPNZD, GBPAUD, GBPJPY, GBPCAD, EURNZD" ? In there exist something that i can check the ATR in the present? (im talking about a picture that you upload about the ATR LIST) Thank you Strat!
So, in your time... you only check "GBPNZD, GBPAUD, GBPJPY, GBPCAD, EURNZD"

Yes. If GBP is not moving I check EUR. If neither of those are moving I shut M5 down and find something constructive to do.

Remember, I am in PST zone and I only get to my charts at 7/7:30am (10/10:30am NY) so most of the volatility has gone or is going so I have to find the pair with the biggest PRICE movement which qualifies for my M5 PASR Trend Trading strategy.

Is there exist something that i can check the ATR in the present?

You could try one of the many currency strength indicators but from my experience, a quick check of each chart is all that is required. The problem with the currency strength indicators is that they are basing their results from some other indicator which, apart from adding lag, may or may not indicate strength and more important, volatility.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,788
  • Jul 10, 2018 3:33pm Jul 10, 2018 3:33pm
Quoting strat
M5 PASR Trend Trading {quote} So, in your time... you only check "GBPNZD, GBPAUD, GBPJPY, GBPCAD, EURNZD" Yes. If GBP is not moving I check EUR. If neither of those are moving I shut M5 down and find something constructive to do. Remember, I am in PST zone and I only get to my charts at 7/7:30am (10/10:30am NY) so most of the volatility has gone or is going so I have to find the pair with the biggest PRICE movement which qualifies for my M5 PASR Trend Trading strategy. Is there exist something that i can check the ATR in the present? You could try...

Oh, i was thinking that u had something from where you are watching the "quantity numbers" of atr in order... but yes im going to keep doing that... a "normal" (im not that fast yet haha) check of each chart and thats it. Thank you.
  • #5,789
  • Jul 10, 2018 8:38pm Jul 10, 2018 8:38pm
Quoting strat
.
Hi Strat ,

Yesterday I took a small (7 pip) loss. In the beginning I thought its a swing trap.After strat shadow resistance I entered. But, When I see price struggling to break that trend line and those bullish candles(2 long bullish candles ) ...I decided to exit with a small loss. But now looking back the trade I feel it could have been avoided.I am just trying to figure out how. Only thing I can see is those large green candles started penetrating strat shadow with vigor (as you said in one of your early post) before I enter the trade. Could you help me with this a bit please.

Thanks a lot
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Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #5,790
  • Jul 10, 2018 11:31pm Jul 10, 2018 11:31pm
Quoting Suran
{quote} Hi Strat , Yesterday I took a small (7 pip) loss. In the beginning I thought its a swing trap.After strat shadow resistance I entered. But, When I see price struggling to break that trend line and those bullish candles(2 long bullish candles ) ...I decided to exit with a small loss. But now looking back the trade I feel it could have been avoided.I am just trying to figure out how. Only thing I can see is those large green candles started penetrating strat shadow with vigor (as you said in one of your early post) before I enter the trade....

Hi Suran

I will take a crack at answering tis one. I'm sure Start will add.

Your trade is a living example of Strats post above on volatility leaving the market. This is something West coast of the US traders have to deal with constantly. Often when the US market starts up there is either a good move with the London direction or it just fizzles out and grinds on your position until it goes to a loss or you tweak out a gain. The two candles I have circled are my first warning sign that the US market is going to be a dud.

Another thing I like is to lay out the S/R from a 1hr chart and see what the bigger picture is. 1.1700 was right there and saw a very strong rejection. Also about to the pip of the 200 moving average.

So...What I do if I see something like your trade that piqued my interest. Is look at a 1hr chart...do I still like it? The power of time frames can be your friend to warn you of trouble.

So to be clear. I'm not trading the 5m because of the hour chart. Just use the hour chart for more information; S/R, big round numbers, price action for potential problem areas and targets.

I hope this is some help.

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Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #5,791
  • Jul 11, 2018 12:05am Jul 11, 2018 12:05am
Quoting Rufus
{quote} Hi Suran I will take a crack at answering tis one. ..


Thanks a lot for the opinion

Another thing I like is to lay out the S/R from a 1hr chart and see what the bigger picture is. 1.1700 was right there and saw a very strong rejection. Also about to the pip of the 200 moving average.

My S/R from 1Hr chart was at 1.717 and 1.168. So that may be one issue.

And I only check 1Hr and 4Hr charts to add S/R levels,I do not check PA at 1Hr and 4Hr charts. However, I know Strat advised to check where is price in general in 1Hr and 4Hr as well. My entry happened after 1Hr long legged doji at 200 MA and very nice 4Hr Hammer at support which I didn't give much attention. Seams I should check the price action in those in general.

appreciate your reply.
Regards

Suranga
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #5,792
  • Jul 11, 2018 12:25am Jul 11, 2018 12:25am
Quoting Rufus
{quote} Hi Suran I will take a crack at answering tis one. I'm sure Start will add. Your trade is a living example of Strats post above on volatility leaving the market. This is something West coast of the US traders have to deal with constantly. Often when the US market starts up there is either a good move with the London direction or it just fizzles out and grinds on your position until it goes to a loss or you tweak out a gain. The two candles I have circled are my first warning sign that the US market is going to be a dud. Another thing I like...

I also forgot to mention. ECB President Draghi Spoke 1hr and 3hr after the opening of the US session. Kind of a wild card.

Off to bed for me.
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #5,793
  • Jul 11, 2018 3:20am Jul 11, 2018 3:20am
Quoting Suran
{quote} Thanks a lot for the opinion Another thing I like is to lay out the S/R from a 1hr chart and see what the bigger picture is. 1.1700 was right there and saw a very strong rejection. Also about to the pip of the 200 moving average. My S/R from 1Hr chart was at 1.717 and 1.168. So that may be one issue. And I only check 1Hr and 4Hr charts to add S/R levels,I do not check PA at 1Hr and 4Hr charts. However, I know Strat advised to check where is price in general in 1Hr and 4Hr as well. My entry happened after 1Hr long legged doji at 200 MA and...

Looking at your chart, the thing that stood out to me was from where you've got the start of the trend line drawn the up candles are big, strong candles, and the down ones look more like they're taking their time. If the trend was healthy I'd expect it to be the other way, like left of the start of your trend line. Couple that with what Rufus noted and it's fairly safe to say it's all over red rover.
  • #5,794
  • Jul 11, 2018 4:04am Jul 11, 2018 4:04am
Quoting Rub
{quote} Looking at your chart, the thing that stood out to me was from where you've got the start of the trend line drawn the up candles are big, strong candles, and the down ones look more like they're taking their time. If the trend was healthy I'd expect it to be the other way, like left of the start of your trend line. Couple that with what Rufus noted and it's fairly safe to say it's all over red rover.

Yes Rub, thats something I need to train my eye. I can see 100s of reasons after a loss, but to see this in live is what matters. That's where practicing 1000's of charts comes in to play. In monetary wise its negligible cos this is smallest trading amount from a micro account. But still this matters psychologically. cos loss is a loss

thanks alot
Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #5,795
  • Jul 11, 2018 9:40am Jul 11, 2018 9:40am
EURUSD M5 PASR Trend Trading

Quoting Suran
{quote} Hi Strat , Yesterday I took a small (7 pip) loss. In the beginning I thought its a swing trap.After strat shadow resistance I entered. But, When I see price struggling to break that trend line and those bullish candles(2 long bullish candles ) ...I decided to exit with a small loss. But now looking back the trade I feel it could have been avoided.I am just trying to figure out how. Only thing I can see is those large green candles started penetrating strat shadow with vigor (as you said in one of your early post) before I enter the trade....
Hi Suranga, you have got some really good comments from Rufus and Rub so pay attention to them.

From my point of view, I don't trade EURUSD M5 because it is 18th on my Volatility List and, as I explained in Post 5785, I need volatility for my M5 trading.

Now, in the big scheme of things, 7 pips loss is NOTHING compared to the double and triple pips we make on M5 so you have nothing to worry about.

I don't know your time zone or the time you are at your charts for trading but where you entered is where the down trend was finished and a correction of sorts was beginning. That is the biggest reason for your loss.

The entry for this M5 trend was somewhere in, or immediately after, the blue box I marked on your chart. I have explained the reasons for this many times so if you don't know why, go back and read my M5 PASR Trend Trading strategy.

The black box is your second entry after the pull back to the Strat Shadow in that down trend.

So, every time you are in a trade, you need to be reading PRICE ACTION and Market Structure in addition to PASR.

At the black box entry, PRICE has made a ""1 - 2"" move so we are now looking for the ""3"" move down.

Usually, but not always, PRICE completes the "3" leg in some sort of exhaustion candle so we always look for those signs.

I have drawn two blue lines at the bottom of the exhaustion candle which is already at H1 support. At this level, you would already be in 60+ pips profit which is damn good for this pair so you would take your money and run!

What you didn't SEE was the PRICE ACTION and Market Structure that happened after that.

After H1 support, there was a BUYING frenzy with 7 candles which I have marked with green lines. This tells us there are BUYERS willing to BUY at H1 support. We do not want to be selling when there are traders BUYING!

PRICE continues to move up and produces a HIGHER LOW identified by my black lines. In addition, there is a LONG tail identified by my red circle which tells us that more buyers have bought at that level. From then on, PRICE is making the Low - High - Higher Low - Higher High structure and we KNOW that down trend is FINISHED.

M5 PASR Trend Trading is SIMPLE when you trade the TREND but it is not as easy as that as explained above.

Make sure you understand PASR and the Strat Shadow in a TREND and can SEE and READ PRICE ACTION and Market Structure as it is happening at the moving hard right edge. This is the hardest part - to SEE and READ it as it is happening. This is why we have to, and MUST, spend time doing this over and over until it is 2nd nature to our trading brain

Still, you are doing good, Saranga, so keep at it.

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,796
  • Edited 11:29am Jul 11, 2018 10:17am | Edited 11:29am
Quoting strat
...

Hi Strat,

Thanks alot for the (news paper long) reply.... I didnt read it yet. cos I caught a falling knife..Need to post it.

This is not M5 Trend trading...haha...M1... .

Reason for entry was H4 resistance.and I saw PA at higher time frame charts.Saw price hesitating to continue higher. I really couldn't stop my trigger happy finger here.

BTW done a mistake again. I missed my H1 support level at 1.58124. If I've had that marked in my charts, then I could have got more. anyway pips are pips..

Regards

P.S. Read your reply, thanks a lot for the lesson.
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Focus, Patience, Discipline, Determination and Perseverance
  • #5,797
  • Edited 12:43pm Jul 11, 2018 12:23pm | Edited 12:43pm
EURUSD M5 PASR Trend Trading

So while I was studying EURUSD M5 for my reply to you, I saw the pull back and jumped in and then volatility kicked in and we got 64 pips in 55 minutes. You just have got to love volatility!

Thank you Suranga!

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,798
  • Jul 11, 2018 12:26pm Jul 11, 2018 12:26pm
Well my numbers says all that i got stopped out ugh.
If you don't respect risk, eventually they'll carry you out.
  • #5,799
  • Jul 11, 2018 12:34pm Jul 11, 2018 12:34pm
Quoting Flyre
Well my numbers says all that i got stopped out ugh.
Well my numbers says all that i got stopped out

Lost about 200 dollars from getting stopped out about 4 times but right now planning to long small, before market goes on.

Unfortunately I became a recent member and yes my numbers do tell that I am a rookie, but for the community that stays here I'm glad to learn and share some of my opinions since I was a virtual currency trader (not bitcoins but smaller) and I ...

Well I just shorted from .7342 and bugger me I fell to that stop loss at 0.7470 before it tumbled to my tp at 0.7265 Got to love the big boys shorting me out, after cutting me

That's because you are a THREAD HOPPER and don't FOCUS on one strategy! What else do you expect?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #5,800
  • Jul 11, 2018 12:38pm Jul 11, 2018 12:38pm
Must be a bloody long wedding, blueman!

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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