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The Swamp

  • #20,401
  • Jul 9, 2018 4:26pm Jul 9, 2018 4:26pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} did you get the cot yet?
yes... will publish in a min..
  • #20,402
  • Jul 9, 2018 4:31pm Jul 9, 2018 4:31pm
How Institutions Position Themselves In Euro/Usd This Week

Last week, institutions increased longs for the first time after 10 weeks continuous unwinding their longs, which was shown in the latest COT as of Tuesday, July 3rd, 2018.

The institutions net long Euro positions increased last week by 2,843 contracts to 36,747 contracts,
1,142 long positions were closed, and 3,985 short positions were closed as well . Now Longs total 189,005 contracts vs shorts total 152,258 contracts .

55% long exposure vs 45% short exposure, the same as the previous week

The week Euro started at 1.1646 on 6/27 , moved down to 1.1527 low , then rallied up to 1.1690 high on 6/29, closed at 1.1657 on 7/3/2018

Longs being closed indicates they might think more drop to come, we might not see the bottom yet; More shorts being closed at 1.15s, which helped their longs positions by pushing up the price .

We see after COT report, Euro continued to rally, now it is challeging the daily supply zone 1.1750-1.1850, a level where sellers will be active this week.

Long Term Less Bullish, Short Term Limited Recovery.

Please note institutions take weeks and months to build a position in the currency market. For Euro, they have built their net long positions since 5/9/2017.
Therefore, the bullish sentiment is more for long term outlook, not intended for short term trading.
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  • #20,403
  • Jul 9, 2018 5:30pm Jul 9, 2018 5:30pm
Very interesting, new to this particular forum, great info folks
  • #20,404
  • Jul 9, 2018 5:41pm Jul 9, 2018 5:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Curios about cot.. If more shorts were added and longs closed (this week)..
that was true already



Quoting gatorinla
{quote}A close above 1682 may have next weeks cot reverse. If it drops some monday following a NY 1682+ close. Monday may be a good buy dips. Stop limited to 1506
this was unknown at the time. the drop did happen to 1590 the following monday, after 1682 month close. The drop I was hoping for to 1608 may be too deep now. Maybe it wont go so deep now. some support at 1682. It may still drop some using Monday's roll, but it may not get past 1682.. The cot report is now known. It followed what the pa suggested and the following week institutions sided with 1682 close being bullish..

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post11216334

unknown then, but now true.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,405
  • Jul 9, 2018 7:24pm Jul 9, 2018 7:24pm
it may drop once in the red box, starting at 1761.1.. It's bullish, but it may give the bears 1608.. but the st target may point to 1673 if 1682 allows.. time will tell, the L day did close lower. A indication it may reatrace. It's above 1755.5 the week close, and near 1761.1 atm. A slip below 1755 may make it st R (1755.5).. above it with closes more bullish..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,406
  • Jul 9, 2018 8:02pm Jul 9, 2018 8:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
it may drop once in the red box, starting at 1761.1.. It's bullish, but it may give the bears 1608.. but the st target may point to 1673 if 1682 allows.. time will tell, the L day did close lower. A indication it may reatrace. It's above 1755.5 the week close, and near 1761.1 atm. A slip below 1755 may make it st R (1755.5).. above it with closes more bullish.. {image}
pa has poked the red box.. the red box is about 28 pips.. if it holds it and now gets below 1731.. it may go shortly after to test the red box again.. then it may reach for 167x.. it hasn't made that LL,, so its has not completed most steps needed to give a better short term forecast. But we know the day closed lower, so we know the 1731 low may be tested.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,407
  • Jul 10, 2018 12:22am Jul 10, 2018 12:22am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} pa has poked the red box.. the red box is about 28 pips.. if it holds it and now gets below 1731.. it may go shortly after to test the red box again.. then it may reach for 167x.. it hasn't made that LL,, so its has not completed most steps needed to give a better short term forecast. But we know the day closed lower, so we know the 1731 low may be tested. {image}
I figured it would test the low.. but that don't insure it breaks.. it does or should have that pull attraction toward 1608, but like said 1682 may stop it.. also Its no guarantee the low breaks. its just a calculated chance it will break, then return to the red box. before reaching the 1673 target.. down move to break, up move to 1761+red box, then 1673.. or not.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,408
  • Jul 10, 2018 6:26am Jul 10, 2018 6:26am
Quoting swing 123
Big Number at 1800 careful bulls..
Nobody believed it....anyway bull area reached...lets see.
  • #20,409
  • Jul 10, 2018 6:32am Jul 10, 2018 6:32am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I figured it would test the low.. but that don't insure it breaks.. it does or should have that pull attraction toward 1608, but like said 1682 may stop it.. also Its no guarantee the low breaks. its just a calculated chance it will break, then return to the red box. before reaching the 1673 target.. down move to break, up move to 1761+red box, then 1673.. or not. {image}
the low broke, but missed the 1761 retrace.. so I missed the short entry. It never make it to 1673 atm either. both 1761 and 1673 should attract it.. as well as it may e attracted to 1608.. 1682 area may still support it.. the atm low 1689
it usually goes to 1761 again before 1673
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,410
  • Jul 10, 2018 7:16am Jul 10, 2018 7:16am
I started buying the au .. tp .771x... but it may be more long term later. it may give 7366 again to buy more.. but I'm not sure.. .73 may be enough stop..std bbl
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,411
  • Jul 10, 2018 7:21am Jul 10, 2018 7:21am
Eur/Usd: Daily Market Trends Update 7/10/2018

Eur/Usd On 7/10/2018 at 8am est.. Boulder Multi Time Frame System:

1H, Downtrend, Trend stop at 1H close 1.1762, Running Period: 8x1H
4H, Uptrend, Trend stop at 4H close 1.1673, Running Period: 19 x 4H
Daily, Downtrend, Trend stop at day close 1.1785, Running Period: 67 days.
Weekly, Downtrend, Trend stop at day close 1.2535, Running Period: 6week


( Note: Those stops will change with hour close and price action)

Trading Strategy:

Currently H1 downtrend, 4H uptrend, and daily and weekly are downtrend. A mix signal, range trade.

If you trade 1H trend, preference is to short as long as downtrend stop 1.1762 held at 1H close.
  • #20,412
  • Jul 10, 2018 4:04pm Jul 10, 2018 4:04pm
Quoting gatorinla
I started buying the au .. tp .771x... but it may be more long term later. it may give 7366 again to buy more.. but I'm not sure.. .73 may be enough stop..std bbl
I don't know why aj drop 40 pips the last 15 min.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,413
  • Jul 10, 2018 4:13pm Jul 10, 2018 4:13pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I don't know why aj drop 40 pips the last 15 min.
U.S. is said poised to release $200 billion China tariff list
  • #20,414
  • Jul 10, 2018 5:13pm Jul 10, 2018 5:13pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} the low broke, but missed the 1761 retrace.. so I missed the short entry. It never make it to 1673 atm either. both 1761 and 1673 should attract it.. as well as it may e attracted to 1608.. 1682 area may still support it.. the atm low 1689 it usually goes to 1761 again before 1673 {image}
it made a run at 1761 again before reaching 1673.. this time it stalled before reaching the normal 1761.. I have a pending there and higher. I will raise my pending at 1761 if the current pa reaches 1719. then proceeds to 1761.. because if it does it's increases its chances to go higher .. I would then place a short near the 1790 high area.. with stops above 1791. this is written in steps.. for a reason.. the pa has to remain in or below the red box to be valid for 1673.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,415
  • Edited 8:04pm Jul 10, 2018 6:56pm | Edited 8:04pm
Eur/Usd: Key Target Levels For 7/11/2018,
( My 1H EA targets are in bold)

For Shorts: L1: 1.1717 L2:1.1698 L3: 1.1665

For Longs: L1: 1.1757 L2:1.1777 L3: 1.1810

Currently @8pm est
1H Downtrend stop : 1.1758;
4H Uptrend stop : 1.1684

Trading Strategy: Range Trades between two stops, 1H prefers to short
  • #20,416
  • Jul 11, 2018 12:01am Jul 11, 2018 12:01am
looking to scalp a short 1736/49.. stop 1749+ spread.. tp 1696 + spread
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,417
  • Jul 11, 2018 4:38am Jul 11, 2018 4:38am
Quoting gatorinla
looking to scalp a short 1736/49.. stop 1749+ spread.. tp 1696 + spread
Nice call. Thanks.
Exit 30 pips here.
  • #20,418
  • Jul 11, 2018 5:07am Jul 11, 2018 5:07am
Quoting gatorinla
looking to scalp a short 1736/49.. stop 1749+ spread.. tp 1696 + spread
woke up to a tp hit..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,419
  • Jul 11, 2018 5:17am Jul 11, 2018 5:17am
if pa can take out yesterday's low it may get the valid 1673 target.. but that requires getting past 1682... atm if bulls are protecting 1682 they are trying for 1808 and maybe will test 1850... I took the long.. with the goal that yesterday's low go unmolested and 1808 is coming.. or at least 1719/20.. from there i can decide to b.e. or not b.e. tp or wait for 18xx
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,420
  • Jul 11, 2018 5:29am Jul 11, 2018 5:29am
Quoting gatorinla
I started buying the au .. tp .771x... but it may be more long term later. it may give 7366 again to buy more.. but I'm not sure.. .73 may be enough stop..std bbl
it appears i started buying au a little early..I'm 50pips down and it looks to reach 7366.. I wasn't sure at the time. so I have room to hold it and add some above .73..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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