The Killing Floor

I would put "Manipulation" under "Randomness and Chaos"...
Well my whole trading approach is based on Chaos and Randomness.

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Regarding that Dude's thread;
I haven't read the whole thread. I read the first post and it didn't interest me.

It belongs to the Dr. Feel Good section

As a hobby; your passion, self motivation etc... to make it an enjoyable worthwhile experience for you.
To make money out of your passion; you need to realize that your competition is smarter and stronger than you.
You need to outsmart your competition... or go and find a niche with no competition...

Being at the right place at the right time...
The real question is; are you equipped with the skill to take advantage of the situation in that serendipitous moment???
Being at the right place and time doesn't necessarily equate to success... unless what's on offer is simply handed to you with no requirement of any action on your part.

How many Forest Gumps do you see in the world?
Statistically on a Gaussian-bell curve, there are people who are born with a silver spoon on their mouth.
It is what it is and is just part of life.

and you think with these scientific things someone is successful?

simple things like only the 10MA work. or all kinds of 123 patterns, trading around the daily open line, pivots or just "the line in the sand" is more effective when it comes to real trading results than any scientific approach. its wasted time imo. keep it KISS, because when it comes to decisionmaking, you need to act intuitiv and fast.

true. but he keeps it very popular and clean of trolls. human kind needs leadership.

In sport, you would be the Enthusiastic Amateur. Doing it for the love of it.

In the US, Semi-Pro.

I think you clearly have a talent, that of market analysis, at the very least, so hardly "no talent".

Intrepidpips,

From my interaction, Sis.yphusis is a very patient and humble for his level of competency. For what it's worth, his ignore list was zero until now. Currently there is only one person there, that should shed some insight on the extent of his tolerance level.

Thanks

I appreciate the amount of statistical analysis Sis.yphusis completed for the various system events, and have to give it a try. My only problem is the lack of specific MM or trade management principles/guidelines applied to his statistics. In his 'Boosting Win Rate Through Management' post, he shows that 'proper' stacking or scaling into of positions can boost win rates/profit from 46.759% to 98.78%. This needs to be applied to all 7 possible entries, and then compared as a whole; since a cross of the 10 EMA will likely lead to a PA cross of the 50 EMA and so on (it would be dumb not to take advantage of the high probability PA crosses to enhance total win rate). He mentions specifically NOT trading all the events however, as it be eat up too much margin. Since we know that, it makes sense to scale into positions with much lower lot sizes to compensate.

In my mind this is leads to a MUCH higher probability version of card counting, allowing us to back-count before entering trades. Counting cards in an ideal environment (no shuffle master, 6-8 decks, being sober, etc.) only grants an edge around 0.5 to 1.5%. However once you inject money management into the equation, and bet more on a 'rich count' your potential returns increase. Very few if any FOREX systems EVER give you their true win rates or time/price cycles. This information is absolute GOLD and cannot be discounted.

He even shows with the 4:36 (R:R) win rate series/profit table that profitability shows a marked upturn as the quantity of trades increase. I propose the below to account for the data he's presented regarding the various price cycles of EMA/PA crosses and their respective MAE curves:

1. Enter trade with ≤ 1% margin (e.g. 0.01 lot) with a TP of 4 & SL of 36
2. See below table for MAE and acceptable drawndown



3. Ideally you have entered on the first or second bar of a time cycle for a respective cycle. Within about 20 candles we will know if the trade is a winner or loser (if your TP hasn't already been hit). This is the MOST important part, because depending on PA, it will be clear how long the time cycle will last. 20 candles is 100 minutes or a bit over 1.5 hours. A trend (at least above the 200 EMA) can last much more than the 20 candles that Sis specified as occurring 75% of the time. Once it has been established that the trade is NOT moving against you, the probability that it will be a 'runner' increases.

4. I've put together a proposed table of scaling into a trade linearly below using sample values/lots:



We need to develop a method to apply the scaling method to the 7 events as they happen in sequence. I'm open to suggestion, however I would like to cap total margin as a % of total balance @ 10%, unless risk appetite is higher.

The other problem I'm having is 'eliminating' chop in this system where PA flat-lines and goes sideways.

I'm going to use 'FX Synergy' in concert with this system to make and manage trades. See below for a link to a 30-day trial:
{ information deleted by staff, per membership policy }

*I do not have any vested interest in this product/server nor am being compensated for posting this here. If this violates the T/S I will remove.

My hope is to use FX Synergy to monitor and scale into trades using the 'Killing Floor' system.

Thanks. I was referring in general terms outside of trading more in relation to lack of opportunities in life compared to others. If I had all the opportunities that my kids have now in this information age, I would be a completely different person in the talent space as there was no opportunity to even know of all the possibilities that existed. Anyways, it's more at the philosophical level. When I look at my past, the kids in my high school who were super brilliant and now where they are in life compared to a underdog like me, I am feeling pretty good about it (with no talent and training). I guess it is all relative.

you can always become a politician

hehe...I am looking for a career change for the next(last) decade of my work like before I retire... being a politician i just not on the list. Already sick of dealing with hypocrisy at work for past 2 decades.

Yeah I see his patience some other OP would have restricted posting to high impact members, I could actually troll this thread myself but self control is playing out, I might get what I want from this thread (actual examples of trades following the methodology -entries and exits) or just let it be.

You have my vote VEE...

Let The Money and The Fools Talk
This will be my last post for at least 90 days, could be longer... Till then, I will let the money and the fools talk...

I have loaded up a live trade explorer... No you can't see my size (It's a 5 figure starting equity though). No you can't see my stops and targets. So for all the blind sheep who would like to follow, tough luck. I am sure some of you people will still complain that the TE won't be proof with this privacy. You people will probably say the only way to know if it really works is if I come over to your house, wipe your butt, and then execute the trades in your account for you on your computer...


Not sure when I will shut it down, but I guarantee you this:
- If I shut it off after 100% gain, scrubs will still come back saying, "It's been turned off for this long so how can anyone know if you are really profitable still?" This will happen if I shut it off after any gain... or any amount of time. As long as I am not emailing these retards an hourly PnL statement till the day I die, they will still doubt it.

Peace.

Don't pay too much attention to people that can only slow you down or suck your energy

I think is good for the thread to have a trade explorer for the proof of concept. It is perfectly fine to not reveal stop and targets cause this way someone can figure out the trade management. This is the last piece that each one has to figure out for themselves. You already done a lot to reveal a trading system. Here we have not only a trading system but a method of research that can empower a trader on the "killing floor" with deadliest weapon.

Thanks.

Nice thread Sis... guess its my luck that I am looking at this too late in the day just after you wrote about not posting for next 90 days, will still try my luck incase you wish to help.

If the instrument was DAX instead of EUR/USD, USD/JPY, what would the SL/TP, Entry/Exit criteria be with the same set of SMAs on M1.

Wish I knew how to work with stats and numbers like you do.

Wont mind if you wish to remain to silent, all the best with the TE

Take your time and enjoy it. You tried to help too many people at the same time. Thanks a lot for all your efforts and patience!

Which MA are you using? EMA?