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Learning From Unsuccessful Mouteki Trades - The Search for Filters...

  • #21
  • Oct 4, 2006 1:56pm Oct 4, 2006 1:56pm
Quoting ART_1_
the other loosing trade (which could be avoided with this filter)
Very good examples. You also might notice with this trade (the USD/JPY), that the bar previous to the breakout bar looks like it had a "selling pressure" lower than the TL. This would indicate that the selling momentum may be exhausting and may not continue in that direction for very long.

If this is confusing and you need a chart showing what I mean, please let me know and I'll whip one up for you.
  • #22
  • Oct 4, 2006 2:00pm Oct 4, 2006 2:00pm
What if you throw a stoch on that would it show over sold?


turbo

Quoting ART_1_
the other loosing trade (which could be avoided with this filter)
  • #23
  • Oct 4, 2006 2:07pm Oct 4, 2006 2:07pm
Quoting turbokaos
What if you throw a stoch on that would it show over sold?


turbo
I wouldn't touch stoch to save my life.

The first one has a bullish candle, so I wouldn't have touched it.

As for the second one, well, you can't win them all! Mouteki isn't foolproof nor should anyone expect it to be.
  • #24
  • Oct 4, 2006 2:07pm Oct 4, 2006 2:07pm
Quoting turbokaos
What if you throw a stoch on that would it show over sold?


turbo
We learned last week with the GBPUSD that oversold does not exist with this method
Nothing is hard, some things just take more time and discipline.
  • #25
  • Oct 4, 2006 2:11pm Oct 4, 2006 2:11pm
New this forum and have searched for Mouteki trading plan unsuccessfully. Would someone pls indicate where I will find this plan. Thanks
carpe dium
  • #26
  • Oct 4, 2006 2:13pm Oct 4, 2006 2:13pm
Quoting daerus
Very good examples. You also might notice with this trade (the USD/JPY), that the bar previous to the breakout bar looks like it had a "selling pressure" lower than the TL. This would indicate that the selling momentum may be exhausting and may not continue in that direction for very long.

If this is confusing and you need a chart showing what I mean, please let me know and I'll whip one up for you.

yes it would be great if you can show us a chart (i think i have to reread the other thread to understand the filters exactly.
  • #27
  • Oct 4, 2006 2:16pm Oct 4, 2006 2:16pm
Quoting salpoe
New this forum and have searched for Mouteki trading plan unsuccessfully. Would someone pls indicate where I will find this plan. Thanks
See Mouteki material thread.

Also, go back to the Mouteki forums and find the thread with the highest number of views. It's at 150,000 views in 5 weeks. So, I think it's jumping right out at ya (sorry if i come off rude or anything)
  • #28
  • Oct 4, 2006 2:23pm Oct 4, 2006 2:23pm
Quoting ART_1_
yes it would be great if you can show us a chart (i think i have to reread the other thread to understand the filters exactly.
Ok, I was actually incorrect about the selling pressure in that chart, it actually produced a valid signal. I was just eyeballing it. Next time I'll make sure before I make any assumptions No system is perfect, right?

Here's the chart anyway:

http://picnac.com/images/5983sellingpressure.gif
  • #29
  • Oct 4, 2006 2:29pm Oct 4, 2006 2:29pm
Good JOB GUYS
Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
  • #30
  • Oct 4, 2006 2:50pm Oct 4, 2006 2:50pm
This Trade Was Failure...

so After we know the filter (We should shorted if the price go 1 under the previous candel low)
Attached Image
Charting Markets into the Future...MǎҖ€¥.
  • #31
  • Oct 4, 2006 2:50pm Oct 4, 2006 2:50pm
Quoting salpoe
New this forum and have searched for Mouteki trading plan unsuccessfully. Would someone pls indicate where I will find this plan. Thanks
Try also this link: http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=8464
  • #32
  • Oct 4, 2006 3:04pm Oct 4, 2006 3:04pm
why dont we ask mr mouteki to filter for us? That's a missing subject i think...

one could be we are using free charting software which the price is not stable. Mr mouteki using x-tick chart... this could be the big difference
{Link Removed}]
  • #33
  • Oct 4, 2006 4:13pm Oct 4, 2006 4:13pm
Ok, so it is true that only ONE of the filters should be vaild, or two must be, or 3 or 4???

As I mentioned in the other thread, usd/chf buy signal yesterday only 2 filters were valid, but the trade worked. Maybe if all 4 are there it is a strong signal? Plus usd/chf technically didn't reach pp (within 3 pips), could this be why????

Thoughts?
  • #34
  • Oct 4, 2006 4:16pm Oct 4, 2006 4:16pm
Quoting llambert3
Ok, so it is true that only ONE of the filters should be vaild, or two must be, or 3 or 4???

As I mentioned in the other thread, usd/chf buy signal yesterday only 2 filters were valid, but the trade worked. Maybe if all 4 are there it is a strong signal? Plus usd/chf technically didn't reach pp (within 3 pips), could this be why????

Thoughts?
And come to think of it, looking at the usd/chf from yesterday, a candle never broke through the supply line. It closed and the new one opened above. What about these situations? Ignore the filters period?
  • #35
  • Oct 4, 2006 4:43pm Oct 4, 2006 4:43pm
I too am interested in a good filter. Even after avoiding low angle trendlines my success rate seems to be in the 25% range. And those winners hit my SL at +10 pips.
Entering on the next candle going in the same direction isn't a bad option.

What if you put an entry sell at the bottom of a break out candle that would put you in a short position if the next candle hits atleast the low of the breakout candle?
Make sense?

I'm starting to think Mouteki trades hit their PP are coincedence
  • #36
  • Oct 4, 2006 4:47pm Oct 4, 2006 4:47pm
Quoting FiboFan
I too am interested in a good filter. Even after avoiding low angle trendlines my success rate seems to be in the 25% range. And those winners hit my SL at +10 pips.
Entering on the next candle going in the same direction isn't a bad option.

What if you put an entry sell at the bottom of a break out candle that would put you in a short position if the next candle hits atleast the low of the breakout candle?
Make sense?

I'm starting to think Mouteki trades hit their PP are coincedence
Fibo, hitting the PP may be coincidence, but I've seen too many trades go Mouteki way that I am convinced there is something to it. I was thinking maybe taking 85% or 90% of the PP as the target since sometimes it doesn't quite make it there. A friend of mine suggested backtesting if you always took 40/50 pips to see in the end if you were ahead or if losing the possible 100/200 pips made a difference.

Maybe one saturday/sunday I'll check that.
  • #37
  • Oct 4, 2006 4:57pm Oct 4, 2006 4:57pm
but if everyone keeps reducing the % at which they take their profit eventually the system won't work. After all you have to stay one step ahead of the masses to make a consistent profit.
Maybe that's becoming a problem already with 150,000 views of the trading system.
  • #38
  • Oct 4, 2006 5:00pm Oct 4, 2006 5:00pm
Quoting FiboFan
but if everyone keeps reducing the % at which they take their profit eventually the system won't work. After all you have to stay one step ahead of the masses to make a consistent profit.
Maybe that's becoming a problem already with 150,000 views of the trading system.
Maybe you should post your charts and trades so we can see the 25% success rate, just in case you may be missing something? Just a thought.
  • #39
  • Oct 4, 2006 5:10pm Oct 4, 2006 5:10pm
  •  TPO
  • | Joined Sep 2006 | Status: One Life, One Chance | 68 Posts
Quoting FiboFan
I too am interested in a good filter. Even after avoiding low angle trendlines my success rate seems to be in the 25% range. And those winners hit my SL at +10 pips.
Entering on the next candle going in the same direction isn't a bad option.

What if you put an entry sell at the bottom of a break out candle that would put you in a short position if the next candle hits atleast the low of the breakout candle?
Make sense?

I'm starting to think Mouteki trades hit their PP are coincedence
Then sorry but you are clearly doing something wrong. I've backtested cable over 6 months with no filters at all (friday afternoons, very steep trendlines, etc) and got 2072 pips and approx 60% win rate. Forward testing on nearly every pair gives approx 50% win rate, again with no filters. You should post a couple of charts for others to verify.

-TPO.
  • #40
  • Oct 4, 2006 5:26pm Oct 4, 2006 5:26pm
Was wondering if the 4hr chart can be used with the cms platform or vtrader. it seems different than the platform ive been seeing.
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