Does the martingale system really work? | Page 30 | Forex Factory

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Does the martingale system really work?

  • #581
  • Sep 14, 2016 11:50am Sep 14, 2016 11:50am
Martingale always work, you only need infinity money, when you don't have it - the game is more difficult
  • #582
  • Sep 21, 2016 11:41am Sep 21, 2016 11:41am
Quoting gabanda
Martingale always work, you only need infinity money, when you don't have it - the game is more difficult
so true !!

then (and only then you will always win)

oh yes you may also need unlimited amount of Time as well
  • #583
  • Sep 22, 2016 9:00am Sep 22, 2016 9:00am
If talking not about theoretical situation with infinite amount of time and money... This strategy can work if you guess the trend and have a good luck. Sometimes it's the only chance to get profit equal to losses. But better don't start and later you won't need to search for more and more money to get everything back.
  • #584
  • Apr 9, 2017 1:05am Apr 9, 2017 1:05am
Ahhhhhh the infamous martingale. The reason why casinos put a table limit.

Think about that for a second... if the betting strategy didn't work, why would the casinos try to stop it or hamper it?

Here is a great paper that includes martingale and is on expected value and betting systems...

http://people.math.umass.edu/~lr7q/p...h456/Week5.pdf

Read this then let me know what you think about martingales...
  • #585
  • Dec 6, 2017 3:29am Dec 6, 2017 3:29am
Quoting gabanda
Martingale always work, you only need infinity money, when you don't have it - the game is more difficult
Why it requires infinity money? Can you please describe more about this matter?
  • #586
  • Dec 6, 2017 5:36am Dec 6, 2017 5:36am
even with martingale, you need to have an edge. If you have an edge, you don't need to martingale.
- trading is nothing more than probabilities (mixed with a small amount of luck).
Unfortunately, probabilities are calculated by statistics on past data (unless you have privy information), but often that is good enough..
  • #587
  • Dec 6, 2017 12:43pm Dec 6, 2017 12:43pm
This thread is still alive... no comments.
  • #588
  • Edited 3:47am Jan 26, 2018 2:50am | Edited 3:47am
Quoting ekud87
Martingale really has a good chance of working as long as the following conditions are met: 1. Ratio risk / benefit greater than 1 (preferably greater than 3) 2. Brokers with high leverage, low spread and low commission. 3. The initial operation should risk less than 1% (I use between 0.2% and 0.6%) 4. after losing an operation, increase the risk on a fixed percentage (eg 13% or 20% etc) never risk double the previous operation if you meet these conditions, you can operate martingale (dimmed) and "afford" to lose 20, 30 or even 35 consecutive times....
Thank you for this post, this seems a very safe approach with Martingale considering you can bear 20 losses in a row. But on the other hand with a risk/reward of 1/3, the odds of winning go way below 50% don't they (unless you are really good at picking the trades), so are you not in the "Martingale recovery" mode most of the time?

Edit: I just created an excel sheet to back your numbers. I used a €10.000 equity to start with. To come to 20 losses in a row you could start with a 0,25% risk of equity and a 1:4 risk reward ratio. This way your 21st loss will bust your account. I can't make it happen with a 1:3 ratio, either you bust before the 20th trade or your equity recovery after 1 win will not make up for all the losses.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls Martingale.xls   18 KB | 644 downloads
  • #589
  • Jan 26, 2018 4:16am Jan 26, 2018 4:16am
Quoting ronald_fsm
hello guys , i just want to know is that martingale works? is that system could be use for long time? -could anyone who already use this system give comment? -which pair is the best for trading this system? thanks for your attention.
When I was a new trader then I tried with this strategy and unfortunately, I didn’t get any good result! But I see, few traders are using this strategy in their trading!
  • #590
  • Mar 24, 2018 9:39am Mar 24, 2018 9:39am
i love it can you teach me......you know what you are doing boss....i really want to learn it
  • #591
  • Mar 25, 2018 12:03am Mar 25, 2018 12:03am
Quoting Majeeda
{quote} Why it requires infinity money? Can you please describe more about this matter?
Because markets can stay irrational ALOT longer than you can stay Solvent.
  • #592
  • Mar 25, 2018 8:01am Mar 25, 2018 8:01am
Quoting KoiFish
even with martingale, you need to have an edge. If you have an edge, you don't need to martingale. - trading is nothing more than probabilities (mixed with a small amount of luck). Unfortunately, probabilities are calculated by statistics on past data (unless you have privy information), but often that is good enough..
What if your edge entails never having more than 3 straight losses within a certain setup. You could simply wait for the first two orders to lose without ever wagering and then wager on the expected 100% winner. Or you can use martingale on all three orders which clearly allows you to earn more compared to if you had waited for the sure order.
So clearly martingale is a ververgy usefull tool but they are used by people whom don't have any sort of real expectancy beside their bias.
Hail me for arth thou DaQueen
  • #593
  • Jun 30, 2018 5:16am Jun 30, 2018 5:16am
Quoting gabanda
Martingale always work, you only need infinity money, when you don't have it - the game is more difficult
So, it’s only for the long-time trader? Did you mean that, or anything else?
  • #594
  • Jun 30, 2018 5:23am Jun 30, 2018 5:23am
Quoting ZikriIrfan
{quote} So, it’s only for the long-time trader? Did you mean that, or anything else?
Yes you not only need time for things to play out, but also the funds to cover the margin requirements.

both time and funds needs to be avaiable witout any limitation (infinite). Then (and only then) it will work.
  • #595
  • Jun 30, 2018 9:40am Jun 30, 2018 9:40am
Quoting nullx8
{quote} Yes you not only need time for things to play out, but also the funds to cover the margin requirements. both time and funds needs to be avaiable witout any limitation (infinite). Then (and only then) it will work.
Got it, so it’s not for the scalpers. Thank you very much for reply!
  • #596
  • Jun 30, 2018 10:22am Jun 30, 2018 10:22am
Quoting ZikriIrfan
{quote} Got it, so it’s not for the scalpers. Thank you very much for reply!
the Keyword is "infinite"

meaning Unlimited amounts of time and money!
  • #597
  • Edited 4:46pm Jul 5, 2018 4:25pm | Edited 4:46pm
Quoting nullx8
{quote} Yes you not only need time for things to play out, but also the funds to cover the margin requirements. both time and funds needs to be avaiable witout any limitation (infinite). Then (and only then) it will work.
True and not true. Try a multiplier 1.5 (is that marty too?) a ranging pair like Eur Gbp and a big account and place the trades every 50 pips(100 pips is way safer but beware of swap accumulating) and statistically you have a big edge. It s not like roulette because forex is not pure luck, and the market follows fear, consensus, momentum , oversold and overbought levels, etc, etc and yes also market crashes (that wouldn't help i know) so Martingale could actually work in Forex more than in classical gambling
  • #598
  • Jul 6, 2018 12:39pm Jul 6, 2018 12:39pm
Quoting luca1073
so Martingale could actually work in Forex more than in classical gambling
probably, if you trade cash, but then the rewards in percentage gains would not worth the efforts and costs involved.
  • #599
  • Jul 6, 2018 4:35pm Jul 6, 2018 4:35pm
All martingale strategies will eventually blow up, no matter how good it looks. I’ve seen some averaging 5-10% a month for years but only to blow up on a sustained and unforgiving trend. If you keep recklessly adding bigger positions as price moves away from you, sooner or later you will lose everything. Don’t be delusional. Don’t be tempted. Learn how to trade properly.
  • #600
  • Jul 7, 2018 10:25am Jul 7, 2018 10:25am
Quoting loleno
All martingale strategies will eventually blow up, no matter how good it looks. I’ve seen some averaging 5-10% a month for years but only to blow up on a sustained and unforgiving trend. If you keep recklessly adding bigger positions as price moves away from you, sooner or later you will lose everything. Don’t be delusional. Don’t be tempted. Learn how to trade properly.
exactly! I run some of them
myself, but i consider the whole account “at risk” so before the system not generated a 100% ROI it’s not considered “profitable”

after that i move funds every week the generated funds away from the account to keep it at the same level, as position sizing is not really possible due to the fact that multiple position will have the sizing scenarios grow exponentially.

to savely run a martingale system that trades on 1000$ increments (0.01 lot) you would need arround 15000$ to make it run in a save manner and generate returns that are worth the effort.

here is one:https://www.swingfish.trade/strategy/ub-noise-slow
it doubled the account already, so the “true” gain is 6% at no risk, as i have moved the initial deposit away already, so in the event of a total loss, i would be still +6%
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