Yes, I see that there's a variance. That can mean that you get more or less than expected. However, this variance doesn't change the mean/expected value ...
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{quote} Hi Ivanyo. Your chart example above (while good) gives a clue as to why you are sitting in trades so long. If you look at the sequence of your MAs as you enter, you have the 50 over the 200 over the 10. Now, if you look just slightly farther on, you will see that we get the 200 over the 50 over the 10. Notice how here, the candles don't go back up and close over the 10 but close below and we then get a much stronger drop away? Now, of course, you will likely get a lower entry (in fact you will get a lower entry) most of the time but the...
I would sell the break of the bigger MA before that and stack like no tomorrow. Is this SYS keep saying all the time,be aggressive.
In the entry of the chart i would place a buy if the top was break for a reverse to the mean but with ONLY one position.
And put a sell around where you point with NO stack as price has travel much,if break the low with momentum i would add a second order,
with the security of profit i have from the previous position been in profit.
That's my take on that.
And always on 1:1 leverage maybe 2:1 if im feeling blood
.Thanks SYS and VEEX for the tip 
{quote} Good post. Do you think an edge-less (i.e. 50:50 win/loss negative-sum system before spreads) could be converted into a profitable with proper trade or risk or money management? In my findings also, most presumably profitable systems I tested (systematically) resulted in a 48%-52% range leading me to believe the following: For every profitable trade, there is almost always going to be a losing trade For every stop loss hit, there is also always going to be a corresponding take profit For every statistically proven profitable entry, there...
you can boost a system that is just under break even or at break even, it’s just you can easily burn yourself in doing so and you need significantly more resources, occurrences and time in order to do so.
the main reason being, a 0.1% edge vs a break even strategy will behave extremely differently during the extreme scenarios and every 0.1% change produces drastic change in how things behave during those scenarios and over 100,000s of occurrences.
A 0.1% negative edge, will change the behavior during those periods so much, that it can often be too much to deal with. This is why I think it is extremely important to have some kind of edge upon entry, even if it’s 0.1%. It will make a HUGE difference over the long haul.
I will try to make a post showing this in greater detail so you can visualize just how much things change with only the slightest increase or decrease in edge.
Glad to hear you are liking the posts so far
my goal is to make this one of the highest quality threads on here, providing traders with some real data and information they can use to build their own system or use the TKF one and just modify it, so they can have a fighting chance in this business.
- #185
- Jul 4, 2018 8:15pm Jul 4, 2018 8:15pm
- Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Adios! | 3,377 Posts
Staying in my lane...
{quote} You're looking to manually stop yourself out at 15 pips. 33-36 range is for emergency stops such as having to fluff your fedora before assisting m'lady. 550x15 = 8250 You'll still be ahead 10,000 pips or so.
So yesterday was a learning day for me - news all over the place and I knew it (heck, I even posted here in the morning to warn people). Probably going to not trade on days there is news moving forward to be honest.
Also, cut your losses. Sitting on a trade >15 pips hoping that it will come back is fighting a losing battle. Important to keep your mindset relative when trading - it's not win or lose. It's win or learn - learn from your mistakes and move forward. Don't make the same mistakes again.
Also, cut your losses. Sitting on a trade >15 pips hoping that it will come back is fighting a losing battle. Important to keep your mindset relative when trading - it's not win or lose. It's win or learn - learn from your mistakes and move forward. Don't make the same mistakes again.