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Trap the Market

  • #621
  • Jun 24, 2018 3:29pm Jun 24, 2018 3:29pm
I will be stepping aside from the GBPUSD market in the early part of this week. Here's why, from a technical perspective.

Price action on the daily time frame shows that the bulls are having a tough time taking price action northward. The gravestone doji formed last week Wednesday was expectedly followed up by a bullish move on Thursday, but the northward move was checkmated by bears. On Friday last week, bulls seized the initiative for a further northward move but their effort was curtailed by bears towards the end of the session; leading to the printing of a pinbar/shooting star around a horizontal resistance zone. This back-and-forth struggle between bulls and bears requires a further tracking of the market in the early part of this week. Should bulls seize the initiative, an initial target of a northward move is the 1.34540 area. However, should bears manage to overwhelm bulls, we may see them target the horizontal support around the 1.30910 area.


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_D1_24th_June,_2018_Top-Down.png Size: 52 KB
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  • #622
  • Jun 27, 2018 3:57am Jun 27, 2018 3:57am
Here's a video on a simple price action strategy you may benefit from. Please note that I have no commercial interest in the presenter.

Trade dsafe and prosper

KP

Inserted Video
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  • #623
  • Jul 1, 2018 3:56pm Jul 1, 2018 3:56pm
Here's a top-down technical perspective on EURUSD.

EURUSD has been in congestion at a support zone on the daily time frame for several days. Last week Friday, a relatively big bullish candlestick threatened the resistance around the 1.1700 area. But there is still an attractive area northward, the 1.18500 area, which is around the high of the bearish candlestick printed on June 14 and may be an initial target of bulls. The 1.18500 area is also in confluence with the immediate horizontal resistance. Once the bulls are able to take the 1.18500 zone, the 1.19600 area may be exposed. The 1.19600 area is equivalent to the 50 Fib retracement of the drop from the high of April 2018 to the most recent low in June 2018.

On the H4 time frame, price action is now located around a descending trendline (black) and close to the horizontal resistance around the 1.1700 area. The order flow context is in favour of bulls. However, they will have to breach both the descending trendline and the horizontal resistance northward for any bullish momentum to be sustainable. We may see a retracement southward or a sideways operation before this happens.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #624
  • Jul 1, 2018 4:01pm Jul 1, 2018 4:01pm
Technically, the EURUSD market is still bearish in the medium to long term. But on a short term basis, I am holding a bullish bias on the market. I will wait for a southward pullback or a consolidation on the H4 time frame before looking for a northward market entry.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
Here's a top-down technical perspective on EURUSD. EURUSD has been in congestion at a support zone on the daily time frame for several days. Last week Friday, a relatively big bullish candlestick threatened the resistance around the 1.1700 area. But there is still an attractive area northward, the 1.18500 area, which is around the high of the bearish candlestick printed on June 14 and may be an initial target of bulls. The 1.18500 area is also in confluence with the immediate horizontal resistance. Once the bulls are able to take the 1.18500 zone,...
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  • #625
  • Jul 5, 2018 4:31am Jul 5, 2018 4:31am
If you are tracking the EURUSD, realize that the market is a bit disposed to the north but retracing southward atm. The northward move may have some impetus after the retracement. A likely northward target is the immediate resistance around 1.17200.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
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  • #626
  • Jul 6, 2018 5:14am Jul 6, 2018 5:14am
If you are tracking cable, note that it is currently in a sideways mode.

Trade safe.

KP

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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_H4_Tech_Updatre_6th_July,_2018.png Size: 49 KB
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  • #627
  • Jul 8, 2018 3:13pm Jul 8, 2018 3:13pm
If you are tracking the AUDUSD market, consider this technical perspective.

On the weekly time frame, AUDUSD has rejected an ascending channel (red) southward and now respecting a descending trendline (blue), which is in play as resistance. Price action is now operating in a horizontal support zone around 0.73900. Last week, the market printed a bullish pinbar around this support zone and we may expect a northward move in the early part of this week. The 0.75290/0.76160 area is likely to be an initial target of bulls. However, I will not be trading this pullback. I will be waiting for price action to either retest the support trendline (blue) or enter the mean area between the moving averages I use for measuring mean reversion and drive southward when it gives me a setup on a daily or four-hourly closing basis. Nevertheless, technically, the 0.75290/0.76160 area is an area I will watch for a potential southward turnaround.

Price action on the H4 time frame is now bearing northward. Given the technical outlook on both the MN and W1 time frames, we may expect bulls to go for a retest of a broken down ascending channel (black) before a potential southward turnaround. The 0.76160/0.76710 area is a horizontal resistance and very much in confluence with the breached channel support; which is likely to be a place to watch for potential sell trading opportunity. As the market can do whatever it chooses, we may see a possible southward turnaround near the minor horizontal resistance around the 0.74840 area (magenta), which is near the 50 Fib retracement of the most recent downward swing on the H4 time frame.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #628
  • Jul 8, 2018 4:08pm Jul 8, 2018 4:08pm
I am bearish on this pair, although the short-term market mode is bullish. I will wait for a southward turnaround upon the northward move. A bearish setup on a daily closing basis around the 0.75290/0.76160 area will be of interest to me. Of course, as the market decides what it does, a southward turnaround near the minor horizontal resistance around the 0.74840 area, which is near the 50 Fib retracement of the most recent downward swing on the H4 time frame, is likely to offer a feasible sell trading opportunity. At any rate, as a swing trader, I am not trading the AUDUSD market on the buy side.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
If you are tracking the AUDUSD market, consider this technical perspective. On the weekly time frame, AUDUSD has rejected an ascending channel (red) southward and now respecting a descending trendline (blue), which is in play as resistance. Price action is now operating in a horizontal support zone around 0.73900. Last week, the market printed a bullish pinbar around this support zone and we may expect a northward move in the early part of this week. The 0.75290/0.76160 area is likely to be an initial target of bulls. However, I will not be trading...
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  • #629
  • Jul 15, 2018 2:57pm Jul 15, 2018 2:57pm
Here's a technical perspective on the USDCAD.

On the daily time frame, price action is consolidating in an ascending channel (magenta). Last week Wednesday, the market printed a bullish outside candlestick around the monthly pivot that breached the highs of six previous candlesticks. Although bears stepped in on Thursday to mitigate the bullish move, they did not meet with much success. A minor ascending trendline (blue) is in play as support and we may see bulls seize the initiative this week and drive price action to the next resistance around the 1.34150 area. Of course, we may see a bit of southward retracement of price action before momentum for a northward drive is sustained. A likely target of a southward retracement is the minor trendine (blue) or the monthly pivot, which is around 1.31240.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #630
  • Jul 17, 2018 5:15am Jul 17, 2018 5:15am
Just sharing

There can be a lot of noise on lower intra day time frames. If you trade intra-day, when you are in doubt consult your weekly time frame or wait for clarity of price action.

KP
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  • #631
  • Jul 21, 2018 3:29pm Jul 21, 2018 3:29pm
If you would successfully trap the markets, put in the effort to do a thorough market analysis when the market has closed for the week. Upon your market analysis, develop trade scenarios and prepare a trade plan for each market you would like to track in the ensuing week.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
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  • #632
  • Jul 22, 2018 3:20am Jul 22, 2018 3:20am
Thank you mate for your encouraging words. Swing trading really requires patience built on proper analysis and understanding of the market. Doing that would help the trader have a high reward:risk ratio.

Trade safe and prosper

KP

Quoting BankerKoh
Yet another great therad by you, KeenPips. Thank you. IMO, there is only one big issue with swing trading-being patient enough for it. This is typically why I don't swing trade but I am curious to learn more. Thank you.
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  • #633
  • Jul 22, 2018 3:24am Jul 22, 2018 3:24am
Very good to see that you are making good returns. Focus on consistently being a good trader and your returns will be sustainable.

KP

Quoting BankerKoh
Yet another great therad by you, KeenPips. Thank you. IMO, there is only one big issue with swing trading-being patient enough for it. This is typically why I don't swing trade but I am curious to learn more. Thank you.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #634
  • Jul 22, 2018 3:21pm Jul 22, 2018 3:21pm
If you are tracking AUDUSD this week, here's a technical perspective to consider.

Price action on the AUDUSD on the weekly time frame is operating in a descending channel (black) after breaking southward a larger ascending channel (red). The first three of the past five weeks saw price action hitting the channel support and rejecting it with long-tailed, lower-wick candlesticks. However, there has been little bullish follow-through and this is seen in the indecision candlesticks printed in the last two weeks. Nevertheless, there is a horizontal support zone around where the lower tails of the candlesticks were printed and we may see some northward move this week, particularly with the bullish pinbar printed last week. We may see bulls take price action to a retest of the monthly pivot (0.74683) or around the high of the doji-like candlestick (0.74829) printed two weeks ago. The area is in confluence with the 50 Fib retracement of the most recent downward swing on the weekly time frame. Such a move is small compared to the potential for a southward disposition which is technically supported.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_W1_22nd_July,_2018.png Size: 59 KB
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  • #635
  • Jul 24, 2018 10:26am Jul 24, 2018 10:26am
Are you trying to make sense of the EURUSD market at the moment? The market is in a consolidation mode within a triangular channel. Check the daily and weekly charts.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.Weekly_24th July, 2018.png Size: 35 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.Daily_24th July, 2018.png Size: 40 KB
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  • #636
  • Jul 26, 2018 5:29pm Jul 26, 2018 5:29pm
Price action with structure-based trading will add consistency to your trading success. Beyond using indicators, take time to understand market structure. Here's a video you may learn from.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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  • #637
  • Jul 26, 2018 6:03pm Jul 26, 2018 6:03pm
Structure-based reading of the market using a multi-time frame top-down approach could be highly potent for trapping any Forex market.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
Price action with structure-based trading will add consistency to your trading success. Beyond using indicators, take time to understand market structure. Here's a video you may learn from. Trade safe and prosper. KP https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHvzkL5yd2M
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  • #638
  • Jul 29, 2018 1:46pm Jul 29, 2018 1:46pm
The markets on the pairs I track are largely in a sideways mode. In the circumstance, it is better to step aside, at least during this Monday's sessions, for directional clarity.

Trade safe and prosper.

KP
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  • #639
  • Jul 29, 2018 2:49pm Jul 29, 2018 2:49pm
Are you tracking the AUDUSD market this week? Here's a technical perspective.

On the daily time frame, price action has shown a technical pattern; whereby a period of consolidation yields to a southward move. Currently, we are in a consolidation regime (magenta) and a southward move is likely to follow. On Friday, the market printed an inside candlestick, which technically is ambivalent. We may have to wait to see what happens on Monday.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #640
  • Jul 29, 2018 3:05pm Jul 29, 2018 3:05pm
I am bearish AUDUSD but I will wait out the Monday session.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
Are you tracking the AUDUSD market this week? Here's a technical perspective. On the daily time frame, price action has shown a technical pattern; whereby a period of consolidation yields to a southward move. Currently, we are in a consolidation regime (magenta) and a southward move is likely to follow. On Friday, the market printed an inside candlestick, which technically is ambivalent. We may have to wait to see what happens on Monday. I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper. KP {image}
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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