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  • #921
  • Oct 4, 2006 12:50am Oct 4, 2006 12:50am
Quoting Captain Piptastic
Yes, it is about perception. You said that he shouldn't try to act smarter than you. You implied that he was being impolite by trying to "one up you" or that he simply isn't capable of being smarter than you. I'm not completely sure which and frankly either strikes me as humourous.

As far as my assumptions about you, anger wasn't the issue.
What was the issue?
  • #922
  • Oct 4, 2006 1:20am Oct 4, 2006 1:20am
I see a short too. It broke out of its range of 1.8898 and 1.8851. If you go by the mouteki method, you'd see that prices have broken through its trendline. But what happens eventually is decided by the news tonight.
  • #923
  • Oct 4, 2006 2:16am Oct 4, 2006 2:16am
But I'm going short on the GBPUSD as well
  • #924
  • Edited Mar 7, 2007 6:33am Oct 4, 2006 3:16am | Edited Mar 7, 2007 6:33am
Hello,

Just to support GBP bulls: a pic from { Link Removed }

http://www.understandmarket.com/images/pattern1.gif
  • #925
  • Oct 4, 2006 6:50am Oct 4, 2006 6:50am
Quoting Lex_Fields

Technical analysis only works because we make it work and fundamentals always beat technical analysis.
This is funny material. Do you have a whole routine or is this it?
  • #926
  • Oct 4, 2006 7:39am Oct 4, 2006 7:39am
Man technical analysis only works because traders make it work, pivots work because traders and banks look at them and buy/sell at those points.

You going to tell me I am wrong?

Fundamentals and technical’s are a touchy subject and in the end it just comes down to personal opinion.

I once met Boris Schlossberg and we had a very interesting conversation. We spoke about everything you could think off in relation to financial markets and I just let him talk and talk and talk.

One thing he said that really stood out was what he thought moved the market and i quote

Looks like I was right about todays drop

"in this order fundamental news, geo-political events, and technical analysis"<o></o>
  • #927
  • Oct 4, 2006 9:31am Oct 4, 2006 9:31am
GBPUSD regained lost grounds...

Currently at 1.8850s and it hit as low as 1.8780s!

What will it be? Long or Short?
  • #928
  • Oct 4, 2006 9:42am Oct 4, 2006 9:42am
Yeah, closed with some profit and reinstated longs down near 8780... pretty hairy price action right now... need it to crack 8900 and take a shot back up to 9000.
  • #929
  • Oct 4, 2006 10:06am Oct 4, 2006 10:06am
[quote=FXopportunist]
Quoting philmcgrew

Now come on Phil, You are finally starting to say something interesting. Keep talking on this topic. I proimise, no one will read it but me
Here is a graph of the daily GBPUSD ATR. You can see that the probability of a 2 ATR is almost nil. The graph is small because of FF size restrictions. The highest peak has 43 occurences at 0.8 ATR. Each bar (x axis) is in increments of 0.1 ATR. This was generated from 257 days which is one year of trading.

Hmmm, makes me wonder why everyone uses a 200 period moving average
Attached Image
  • #930
  • Oct 4, 2006 11:22am Oct 4, 2006 11:22am
[quote=philmcgrew]
Quoting FXopportunist

Here is a graph of the daily GBPUSD ATR. You can see that the probability of a 2 ATR is almost nil. The graph is small because of FF size restrictions. The highest peak has 43 occurences at 0.8 ATR. Each bar (x axis) is in increments of 0.1 ATR. This was generated from 257 days which is one year of trading.

Hmmm, makes me wonder why everyone uses a 200 period moving average

What is ATR?
Nothing is hard, some things just take more time and discipline.
  • #931
  • Oct 4, 2006 11:31am Oct 4, 2006 11:31am
This is from investopedia:

A measure of volatility introduced by Welles Wilder in his book: New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems.

The True Range indicator is the greatest of the following:
-current high less the current low.
-the absolute value of the current high less the previous close.
-the absolute value of the current low less the previous close.

The Average True Range is a moving average (generally 14-days) of the True Ranges

In Forex, since there are very few gaps it is usually just the daily range (high - low).
  • #932
  • Oct 4, 2006 11:39am Oct 4, 2006 11:39am
Quoting philmcgrew
This is from investopedia:

A measure of volatility introduced by Welles Wilder in his book: New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems.

The True Range indicator is the greatest of the following:
-current high less the current low.
-the absolute value of the current high less the previous close.
-the absolute value of the current low less the previous close.

The Average True Range is a moving average (generally 14-days) of the True Ranges

In Forex, since there are very few gaps it is usually just the daily range (high - low).
Phil,
Interesting stuff...........may I ask the dumb questions of "how do you apply this information"?
  • #933
  • Oct 4, 2006 11:44am Oct 4, 2006 11:44am
Quoting learningtheropes
Phil,
Interesting stuff...........may I ask the dumb questions of "how do you apply this information"?
That's a legitimate question and far from dumb! The way I apply it is to establish some kind of daily expectation as to how far the market may move. I live on the east coast of the US. If i wake up and the market has moved 1 ATR I know that my trading day is over before I finish my coffee. If it's moved 0.5 ATR then there may still be some trading left to do.

I think it simply answers the question "how far can the market move".
  • #934
  • Oct 4, 2006 11:51am Oct 4, 2006 11:51am
Quoting philmcgrew
That's a legitimate question and far from dumb! The way I apply it is to establish some kind of daily expectation as to how far the market may move. I live on the east coast of the US. If i wake up and the market has moved 1 ATR I know that my trading day is over before I finish my coffee. If it's moved 0.5 ATR then there may still be some trading left to do.

I think it simply answers the question "how far can the market move".
Ok, so it's not necessarily your indicator direction, but more of maybe potential TP levels...........I suppose that would be one way to use it?

Thanks for entertaining the question........I have no experience with the ATR.....I simply didn't even know what it was except for a choice on my inidcator dropdown for charts
  • #935
  • Oct 4, 2006 11:59am Oct 4, 2006 11:59am
Quoting learningtheropes
Ok, so it's not necessarily your indicator direction, but more of maybe potential TP levels...........I suppose that would be one way to use it?

Thanks for entertaining the question........I have no experience with the ATR.....I simply didn't even know what it was except for a choice on my inidcator dropdown for charts
Right, ATR says nothing about market direction. It just gives one an idea of what kind of movement is possible given current market conditions. Because it is smoothed over 14 bars (adjustable) it doesn't change drastically in any one day. It does move quite a bit seasonally though. For example, the GBPUSD daily ATR hasn't been this low since April of this year. It could suggest that better times are ahead.
  • #936
  • Oct 4, 2006 12:02pm Oct 4, 2006 12:02pm
Finally something from Phil that is worth reading! lol- You're one up on me!! Thanks for the explanation on ATR
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #937
  • Oct 4, 2006 12:08pm Oct 4, 2006 12:08pm
Quoting summitfx
Finally something from Phil that is worth reading! lol- You're one up on me!! Thanks for the explanation on ATR
You're too kind. Since I don't trade the moutekisidusbagovinotlatomifozzyvegasbellabunnygirlfirebidphoenix system there isn't much left to talk about besides technical analysis.
  • #938
  • Oct 4, 2006 12:18pm Oct 4, 2006 12:18pm
Only 1 question remains-Are you successful?
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #939
  • Oct 4, 2006 12:37pm Oct 4, 2006 12:37pm
Woah watch the hostility people. Let's just relax and discuss our opinions.

My call for the short gained me 35 pips, but on the long run, i think it's gonna be bullish for the pound. Looking for prices to hit around 1.9ish to carry on it's range.
  • #940
  • Oct 4, 2006 12:39pm Oct 4, 2006 12:39pm
yeah im looking for along side break out my self...
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