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The Killing Floor

  • #121
  • Jun 28, 2018 10:46am Jun 28, 2018 10:46am
Quoting Sis.yphus
Equity Progression You ever wonder what your account growth would look like if you got your hands on a winning system? I bet you imagine it going straight up as it smoothly sails you into the lap of luxury... I am almost positive you don't imagine it would look how it really does. Below is how your equity would progress using a really strong system over x amount of trades. This simulation uses a system that risks 5 units for 7 units with a 50/50 strike rate and a spread of 0.5 pips. 10 Trades: {image} How many would keep trading after these 10 trades?...

Do you dream in numbers?!
  • #122
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:12am Jun 28, 2018 11:12am
sis ... all plesure is mine...

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  • #123
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:24am Jun 28, 2018 11:24am
Quoting BlackNapkins
sis ... all plesure is mine... {image}
Looking pretty comfy there!
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Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Do you dream in numbers?!
Sometimes lol It is pretty hard for me not to look at anything and everything from a numbers perspective. Maybe it's my way of feeling a sense of control in an uncontrollable world.
  • #124
  • Edited 6:52pm Jun 28, 2018 5:56pm | Edited 6:52pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Can I ask a (no doubt daft) question? Why are you having to hold trades so long? For instance, nearly two hours to make +1.1 pips on UJ. I am honestly not trying to be cheeky or wind you up but when I run this (and other scalping of the same ilk), I am in and out in between one and five seconds on a good day. Today, while sitting waiting for an eye exam appointment, I took four trades on my phone: GU 1' 26" (One minute Twenty-Six seconds) GU 9" (Nine seconds) GU 25" (Twenty-Five seconds) DAX 22" (Twenty-Two seconds) If I am missing something...
Yes, very good point. I find that I am getting stuck in some trades that go against me initially, however they never go more than 10 pips against me so essentially I am holding until it hits my TP.

Based on other stats that Sis.yphus has shown us, as long as the trade does not go to 15 pips against me, it is most likely going to turn into a winning trade. I have a hard stop loss of 36 per post #1 for if I am away from the desk, but I will cut trades manually if they go 15 pips against me.

I should look at refining my entries - maybe when candles pull back to 10 MA after crossing it...maybe something like this...
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  • #125
  • Jun 28, 2018 9:24pm Jun 28, 2018 9:24pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Do you dream in numbers?!
Peanuts Gang Singing "25 Or 6 To 4" by: Chicago

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  • #126
  • Jun 28, 2018 9:29pm Jun 28, 2018 9:29pm
Quoting Ivanyo
{quote} Yes, very good point. I find that I am getting stuck in some trades that go against me initially, however they never go more than 10 pips against me so essentially I am holding until it hits my TP. Based on other stats that Sis.yphus has shown us, as long as the trade does not go to 15 pips against me, it is most likely going to turn into a winning trade. I have a hard stop loss of 36 per post #1 for if I am away from the desk, but I will cut trades manually if they go 15 pips against me. I should look at refining my entries - maybe when...
Use the ma cycle data to fade those up cycles on the 10 ma outlined in your image. On average each of those up cycles will be <=4 candles.
  • #127
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:01pm Jun 28, 2018 11:01pm
Quoting Sis.yphus
{quote} Use the ma cycle data to fade those up cycles on the 10 ma outlined in your image. On average each of those up cycles will be <=4 candles.
This is why I like looking at numbers - provides actionable observations and insights to improve trading! I will give it a shot and see how I go - currently my updated entry criteria will be as below;

Long

  1. Price closed above 10, 50 and 200 MA
  2. All three MAs are sloping up
  3. On the 3rd or 4th down cycle candle where the candle retraces back to the 10 MA, I will enter long.


Short

  1. Price closed below 10, 50 and 200 MA
  2. All three MAs sloping down
  3. On the 3rd or 4th up cycle candle where the candle retraces back to the 10 MA, I will enter short.

  • #128
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:57pm Jun 28, 2018 11:57pm
Sorry if this has been asked before, but how do you determine when to adjust your take profit from 4 pips?
  • #129
  • Jun 29, 2018 12:14am Jun 29, 2018 12:14am
Quoting 00PIP
Sorry if this has been asked before, but how do you determine when to adjust your take profit from 4 pips?
That is completely up to you - the only thing it changes is the amount you win and lose each time.
ou can use only 4 pips TP (as I have been doing).

You can use a mix of 4 pips and other higher TP as per post #1
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Or you can even use your own mix of TP/SL as shown in post #153
  • #130
  • Jun 29, 2018 12:33am Jun 29, 2018 12:33am
Here is pic from CP thread ...
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  • #131
  • Jun 29, 2018 1:46am Jun 29, 2018 1:46am
Quoting Ivanyo
{quote} Yes, very good point. I find that I am getting stuck in some trades that go against me initially, however they never go more than 10 pips against me so essentially I am holding until it hits my TP. Based on other stats that Sis.yphus has shown us, as long as the trade does not go to 15 pips against me, it is most likely going to turn into a winning trade. I have a hard stop loss of 36 per post #1 for if I am away from the desk, but I will cut trades manually if they go 15 pips against me. I should look at refining[/highlight]...
[/highlight][/b][/i]

Ah yes! You have pre-empted my reply!

Elsewhere, I ''trade lines''. This in itself has no bearing here, other than there is a method of trading pivots for instance, which has you wait for a break and close over a level, then wait for a retest and fail to close back over the other side. The entry then comes as you open a new bar below the level.

This is in effect what I was going to suggest you look for in relation to refining your entries - and is what you yourself have suggested is a possible solution. Cool.

My initial concern was that when scalping, we are looking for momentum to get us in and out of a trade very quickly and avoid the very situation you are finding. To me, this suggested that perhaps you were not maximising your trade entry time (in too early before in an established trend / move gives you our momentum).
  • #132
  • Edited 2:45am Jun 29, 2018 2:30am | Edited 2:45am
Hello,

I understand the probablilities and 4 pips most every trade with 10 or even 50 ma is fine but i am sure that it can be done more better with the 200 ma :

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Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #133
  • Jun 29, 2018 4:49am Jun 29, 2018 4:49am
Quoting Sis.yphus
Welcome to The Killing Floor! Please keep all chat that does not use this strategy or pair in another thread. Our the strategy may change from time to time, but for the most part, it will remain very constant. If it does change, there will be a statistical reason why. Many will say this is too simple and there is no way it works… Frankly, I don’t care because I get paid in pips, not opinions. The evidence of profitably from the entries generated by the system is provided. Why Is It Called The Killing Floor? Most people who step foot on the market...
Chief,

For mortals with frayed nerves, request you to shed some data insight on higher times frames like hourly etc...random example: TP @ 20-30 and S/L@ 200 pips...

Will be much appreciated if you could guide us...

Thanks
  • #134
  • Jun 29, 2018 4:56am Jun 29, 2018 4:56am
Quoting limprobable
Hello, I understand the probablilities and 4 pips most every trade with 10 or even 50 ma is fine but i am sure that it can be done more better with the 200 ma : {image}
Limprobable,

While this may be true, my key takeaway is this:

Sis.yphus and VEEFX- these guys deal with hard numbers. If something can't be proven with hard facts, then that aspect is not part of their menu.

More importantly, i feel what Sis.yphus has conveyed is the ongoing conviction one should have in one's strategy-same confidence when executing the 3rd trade as well as the 1000th trade. These figures fit into that message.

While in your example, once in a while we could have a home runner, but this home runner may not be consistently predictable. Also, one of the posts Sis.yphus has mentioned that he prefers high winning rate system because anything over 35% losing rate impacts the psychology...

this is just my 2 cents...

Thanks
  • #135
  • Jun 29, 2018 7:02am Jun 29, 2018 7:02am
Guys you have the stats on how much pips and candles last the 200 cycle. With this data and rest you can build and tweak a strategy how you see appropriate.

Just my two cents.

Cheers.
  • #136
  • Edited 7:45am Jun 29, 2018 7:24am | Edited 7:45am
Quoting Sis.yphus
Important Notes If you try to 100% automate this system, you will get very different results. The trade management is key. You need to know when to stack entries, adjust all order TPs to the furthest orders 4 pip TP, cut losers, and most importantly, you need to know when YOU need to stop trading based on things OUTSIDE the market. Even though we have 7 possible entries, this does not mean you need to trade every single one every single time. In fact, don't...
What happen if i do7 entries (or more) at the same time only with 200 ma signal. Each entries with differents TP to catch the trend. 1st tp = 4 pips, 2nd tp 8 pips... etc.
You can adjust the differents tp according to the probabilities.
You can adjust the number of entries and of course dont take every signals.
key is also money management

ps: sorry for my english i would like to elaborate more
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #137
  • Jun 29, 2018 7:53am Jun 29, 2018 7:53am
Friday evening - let's call it a day.

Stuck in these trades much longer than I would've liked, time to keep improving next week.
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  • #138
  • Jun 29, 2018 8:26am Jun 29, 2018 8:26am
Quoting limprobable
{quote} What happen if i do7 entries (or more) at the same time only with 200 ma signal. Each entries with differents TP to catch the trend. 1st tp = 4 pips, 2nd tp 8 pips... etc. You can adjust the differents tp according to the probabilities. You can adjust the number of entries and of course dont take every signals. key is also money management ps: sorry for my english i would like to elaborate more
READ first post about 'stacking'
  • #139
  • Jun 29, 2018 8:35am Jun 29, 2018 8:35am
Quoting Epsilo
{quote} READ first post about 'stacking'
As I understand it, "stacking" is about multiple entries on different MAs, so different prices. I speak of several entries at the same price on one MA (200).

But maybe I do not understand because of the language. If so, I am sorry and will delete my messages.

green pips
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #140
  • Jun 29, 2018 8:58am Jun 29, 2018 8:58am
Quoting limprobable
{quote} As I understand it, "stacking" is about multiple entries on different MAs, so different prices. I speak of several entries at the same price on one MA (200). But maybe I do not understand because of the language. If so, I am sorry and will delete my messages. green pips

You can stack into the same position, or stack into a new one based on a different ma and different cycle. The stacking is mainly done to increase your edge. I am going to do a post outlining what I mean by this and how MM and boost your edge once it's there. The key is, you need your edge to be there though.

Quoting aaven
{quote} Chief, For mortals with frayed nerves, request you to shed some data insight on higher times frames like hourly etc...random example: TP @ 20-30 and S/L@ 200 pips... Will be much appreciated if you could guide us... Thanks
Possibly will be posting something like this relatively soon.
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