London session market profile preps and journal for DAX

anyway here is the NT8 chart template



you need to have also these indicators ...



is there a member pm service here on this forum? I cannot find it

Thank you for that!
Regarding to the Euro, sorry for the late reply, btw. I was baby sitting again today.

Euro chart does not look pretty. I think the double bottom is merely to attract retails to believe that the bottom is solid.
The institutions have held the price for too long without any decent pullback making me believe that they actually don't want to buy but really wanted to sell. That is why they lift the price quickly up and consolidated for 3 days to do their selling.
I think it is only a matter of time that the 1.15 level is going to be taken out. We will see if big buyers are coming in or not below the support.

Yesterday's short squeeze was absolutely impressive to see. Basically the morning dip was engineered deliberately to squeeze out the last bit of weak longs and attracted unsuspected late short sellers to sell into the trap. Their stops are used by the market maker as the fuel to propel the market much higher. I have seen quite some DAX traders were screaming short after seeing the morning dip. The market maker was very grateful to their contribution.

On the hourly chart, DAX has just made an irregular Wolfe wave pattern which could signify the intermediary bottom and DAX is transitioning from bear state to mild bull state, which does not suggest a spiking up price action. But instead consolidation through time and space to build a base waiting for the pull late September or so.
The primary scenario is for DAX to make a higher low above 12150.
If the 12120 low is taken out then the mild bull scenario is nullified.

looking at the common usual lagging indicators, such as stochastic, DAx seems to tell it will check 12000;
lower panel yellow line, ie long term stoch, has been uneable to cross the 50 mid line, all other shorter term stochs and rsi are pointing down as well. so the fake msg appears to be: index going down ... until all lower panel oscillators get below 20. just imho!

do you perhaps get a similar msg from your MP analysis?

The situation is too fluid at this moment.
All the scenario can only serve as a reference to guide your intraday trading.
I don't hold trades above scalping time frame, which is to say my time frame is no more than 5 mins.

Has stochastic ever reliable for DAX?
I really doubt it.
Watch the 20,50,80 levels for reaction and rotation to see whether the Market maker has achieved its intention or not.

DAX has made a beautiful reversal base below Wednesday low. That base was much bigger than that of Wednesday's London session low.
Wednesday late London spike was just a short squeeze but this time, by looking at the depth and volume built in the base, it is much more likely to be a institutional buying flow low instead of market maker manufactured low.

Too bad I wasn't able to trade most of the session yesterday. It looks quite exciting. It could be due to the end of half year, a lot of re positioning is going on. Hopefully the July is not going to quiet down too much.

How would you MP read current 6E profile? Going up to Wednesday poc crossing above the low volume range 13167 -13180? or going back to revisit yesterday poc?
Thanks.

forgot to attach chart:

guidoisot,

The MP chart for 6B is quite strong.
Just above the prior day's value area high. And the prior day's profile is a well auctioned consolidation profile with a buying tail.
The 6B is as strong as it could get.
But it might be a bit late at this moment as the big boys have taken profit at 13220 and 13225 already. That is pretty much the morning trend.

Weekend study note:
1. 6J:
Last week I have failed to notice the rejection of 6J at the prior month's POC which has set up a major reversal. It looks like that the 6J is ready to make new low (or new high in USDJPY) now.
Below the Apirl, there is wide open space until the 2018 yearly low.

2. The euro has indeed pulled back in the later part of the week. In fact we were anticipate a quickly pullback into the prior week's POC to look for support. It has instead hovered above the 1.17 level for more than two days, which has created quite some overhead supply and quite a strong long liquidation dump. After shaking out the weak longs, euro might be ready to challenge the block of overhead supply above 11820.

For the next week, the bias would still be to the upside. If the market failed at 1.1800 or 1.1820 level, then we might see the support 11600 - 11580 broken in the coming weeks.

3. People might argue that the Pound trend has been completely dominated by the political development, or the lack of it, in the Brexit negotiation, It might not be the best candidate for technical analysis. However, it reacts to the algo big numbers in such a precise fashion that makes me suspect that some kind of absorption is going on at the lower prices.
Now I am watch further developments from this big wedge formation in the 4 hr and daily chart for clues of future movements.

4. What an impressive break out of the two weeks long consolidation range for the CAD. Look at the precise test of 7480 algo big number in the stop run before the break out. CAD is such a heavily manipulated instrument.
The footprints of the algos are so shamelessly obvious making it impossible for you to trade any level other than the algo big numbers.

DAX has been trading in a consolidation range for more than 1 week now.
The low of 12100 has been tested multiple times and was confirmed by the price action. Hence the path of least resistance for DAX is to trade to the upside.
At this moment, DAX is trading in the upper half of the range poised to take an upside assault.

The first target in Market maker's eye should be the 12380 level which is just above last Friday's high.
If DAX were to pullback, I am interested in any level below 12280 in an event of market maker stop run.

DAX has just tested prior day's value high. Could this be the end of retest or there is more to come?

Hi BinChenUt
I have noticed that in your posts you do not mention too often what the ES is doing as well as its outlook, whereas it appears you prefer to look at the DOW. I was wondering why is that? do you think there is more correlation between the DAX and DOW vs the DAX and ES? I understand that for many trader the ES (given the huge size of SPX options trading) is the main barometer of the market which all other equity indexes, soon or later, will end up following. (not so much with the NQ though .... in these last few years).

6E spiked up 0,3% this morning, the DXY down just 0,06% ie. Euro going up. Do you interpret this with some correlation to how the market makers are going to expoit any of today's news relaeases? Perhaps, Buba VP speech?
Thank you.

edit
.. actually DX is down, the same amount in the opposite direction, anyway a considerable move of the 6E this morning is still there.

Guidoisot,

I don't take a look at ES just because it is not the leader nor the laggard. The leader at this moment is Russell and NQ, while YM is clearly the laggard. The ES chart is quite boring anyway, which looks like a slower version of YM. If you take the last digit out of the YM price, that is pretty much where ES is.

The 6E has out flanked me completely as the market maker has made an obvious attempt to go below Tuesday's level and absorb a lot of contracts there. Due to the US holiday I didn't want to participate in yesterday's market because that would be too slow for me.
This has proven once again that the money never sleeps. I don't want to speculate about the cause of the move, I only know that clear buying interest is present in the market. If Euro were to take out of 11795 level, then it would confirm a bullish bias of this two weeks long consolidation range to be a accumulation range.

Wednesday has been a very narrow inside day, probably one should have expected such

a big move on Thursday, ... also the day before weekly options expiration

This Friday morning I thought DAX was going to bounce up at yesterday POC … where earlier on I hedged some delta negative options positions on the index. Then it went lower down to Y VWAP ... I was worried it was going lower and lower ... however now it is back hanging around Y POC again ..... probably it is just waiting for today’s option settlement.

It looks like it is not really possible to foresee whether and where there will be such a bounce. Probably best practice is to let one of these levels being visited first and then, after that (… how long after that?), see how price action develops. However in such case it is very easy that any index, especially such a fast boy as DAX, runs away quick, just before one can realize it is time to take the trade.