The Equilibrium, a key to success!

Hello chonchy,

First of all thank you for the nice words and your intercession for this blog. The salutation Sir expresses your respect for me and I am honored. Even though I'm over half a century old, I do not quite feel like a sir. I'm a normal trader, the only difference is that maybe I spent 40,000 hours trading, that's all. I have a lot of respect for you and all the traders here in the blog. This job is very special and regardless of whether you are a beginner, have been trading for a few years or even decades, we are working in the same market with similar goals.

In order to be able to successfully practice this profession in the long term, you need very special skills that are not taught at any school or university. Courage, discipline, passion, patience, perseverance, authenticity, sense of responsibility, self-control, openness, empathy, ambitions, optimism, social skills and much more.
You all have these skills as traders, maybe one more than the other. These skills are more important than a high IQ or a summa cum laude degree.
It always sounds so easy to outsiders, you're sitting in front of the screen all day and do nothing. No one sees the skills a trader needs.

We are not talking about fixed salary and security as an employee, but about a brave entrepreneur who risks taking everything tomorrow. This should some entrepreneurs take an example, if he goes bankrupt and he is liable only with his Limited Liability Company. The broker will always take the trader fully and not his company, at least in Germany.

That's why I have great respect for all traders, because I know for many years what it means to be a trader.

No matter which side you look at it, every trader who was on the market at least once a day can say at least in the evening: I have moved something. Even if the market did not realize it, you still moved something.

And you can all be proud of that.

Greetings Michael

...Wow, wow, wow, that is all I can say about your posts Sir., and Sir. it is in deed about respect, Sir. god bless Bionics...

Hello dear traders,

In the daily chart we see a strong resistance zone, (blue line) to which the EURUSD has now returned. He has already been rejected several times. To break this zone now requires a strong demand market. This could well mean that this demand market is triggering a strong upward trend throughout the day. We are curious if the price will break this resistance zone today.

I wish you much success today.

best regards

Two charts two opinions

Dear Traders,

The views of whether a price goes up or down is different for each trader. That's exactly why the course is moving. There are 1000 ways to analyze a chart image, the question is: what type of chart analysis is the most likely to fulfill the prediction?

There are only 2 answers to this:
1.No chart analysis
2.The chart analysis that the trader considers appropriate.

Let's look at an example:



You can see the monthly chart of the EURUSD since 2003. Trader A has plotted two lines, claiming that the price will continue to fall sharply. And indeed, because of the drawn lines, it actually looks like this.



You can see the monthly chart of the EURUSD since 1984. Trader B has plotted two lines, claiming that the price will now rise sharply. And indeed, because of the drawn lines, it actually looks like this.

But who is right now?

I believe that no one is right, because this kind of chart analysis is very dangerous in my opinion. Of course, sooner or later one of them will get the right, but not because of his chart analysis.

I also posted a similar chart image for the fun of the beginning of the year, but with the hint that you should be very careful here.



If we look again at the chart image of 1984 we notice the 3 circles. Some see a shoulder-head-shoulder formation, others a sloping triangle or even an equilibrium. The likelihood here would be more likely to be a further uptrend, but this assumption I derived from my year chart and not from the two drawn lines. Nevertheless, the statement goes up or down, pure speculation.

There are traders who can work because of cross-lines and are successful, for me, the price levels are best captured in a horizontal plane. However, I am working out these horizontal resistance lines on the basis of supply and demand with the help of Equilibrium.

We humans think in pictures and draw our lines. We can draw lines everywhere and believe we can recognize something there. But the course is not based on pictures, but whether there are more buyers or sellers.

The nature of my approach, how to see and analyze the market, has caused a few rejections. That's fine and I accept every opinion. However, I do not want to discuss or justify myself on this blog. Who likes it, tries to follow this path, who does not like it continues to search. I mean, there are a lot of great traders here who have great ideas and systems, and everybody will find something suitable someday.

Many articles say that 95% of all traders lose more money than they win. I do not want to support or reject this claim now. It does not matter if it's actually 90% or 95%. However, the fact seems to be that the majority is losing. If the majority loses, that means that the recommendations on how to act properly are 95% wrong.
That was the reason for me to follow a path that does not meet the expectations of the 95%. Whether I belong to the remaining 5%, I do not want to claim that. At the end of the day, every trader should be able to say: more was not possible.

I wish you good ideas and much success

Best regards

EURUSD 300 Pip crash


Hello dear traders,

Yesterday on June 14, 2018, we saw a sharp drop of almost 300 pip in the EURUSD. That was the biggest drop for 720 days, because almost exactly 2 years ago on June 24, 2016, there was a drop of 510 pip. A few hours earlier I had already pointed out a strong resistance and noticed that it takes a lot of strength to overcome this resistance.



This resistance was also overcome for a short time and then strongly rejected. Of course, I could not know which direction the course was going to be, but my identified zone was crucial.



What happened?

I would like to introduce a possible scenario. The ECB press conference was scheduled for 14:30 CET. At 13:45 CET there was already a press release about the result. For a big player, this announcement was a reason to value the dollar higher than the euro. However, how do you trade down without taking many traders down? You lead the dealer first on the wrong track.



In the M1 you can see what happened at 13:45 CET. The course was pushed up by the big player 40 pip. Many traders were aware of this strong line of resistance and many now assumed that the price is now heading higher. You can see nicely on the chart image that some traders, who were fortunate enough to be taken up, have sold their position. The course went back a bit. Some traders were hoping for another big rise now. Now the big player pushed down the course with heavy pressure, many stops were triggered and the few traders were in the game. The downside accelerated. The third candle was once again a strong sell and push down. The rest was pure mass psychology and the crowd followed the course. You can see that the course in the recorded resistance zone has briefly gone into equilibrium and another attempt has been made at the ECB press conference to get back up, but the overall pressure of the mass movement was simply too great.



As the price dropped 300 pip, there were some attempts to push the price higher again. On average, a daily range has 91 pip. Many traders thought after the price had gone down 180 pip that it had to go up again. Unfortunately, these ideas did not work out.

One often has the feeling that the course runs faster down than up. Basically, this claim is not always correct, but it is similar to real life. Trust is gone faster than it builds. You can see in the picture how the price initially accelerated and the downtrend weakened over time.

If the price goes up sharply now, that does not mean that we are back on an upward trajectory. It could also be because the big player repurchases his shares.
So we are back in an equilibrium, buyers are not sure whether they should invest again and the sellers are wondering if the price could fall even further.



Although this strong downtrend is basically not a good prospect for a longer uptrend, but you can quickly be fooled. We have two strong resistance zones for a possible strong uptrend. Resistance zone 1 has already been reached and the price has been sharply turned upwards. Now the course has come back strong. Now it remains to be seen if the resistance zone holds 1 and the course can move up.

Resistance zone 1 is still strong for me, maybe the course needs to penetrate this zone a little more before a demand market re-emerges. Zone 2 is a stronger demand zone than zone 1. Should the price break zone 1 and see it as resistance from below, zone 2 would be relevant to me as a high demand candidate. However, there is still a blue line which could also push up the course as strong resistance.

Another possibility would be that the big player has identified zone 1 as the reversal point of a longer-term uptrend and has now pushed the price down sharply again to get a better starting price.

This assumption is purely speculative and every trader has his own opinion. It is crucial to evaluate the market according to his views and derive a strategy for himself. As a Scalper, I make it a bit easier for me by basically acting reversal points in smaller time units. Nevertheless, a longer-term trend analysis is also an important issue. I would like to point out again that my statements made are my personal opinion and I do not claim to be right. My hit rate is much higher, but I often wrong myself too.

Many years ago I also tried to trade currency pairs on a long-term basis, but found that I can make higher profits with the Equilibrium in smaller time units and larger contracts. However, every trader has to make that decision for himself. You can see how many things you have to pay attention to as a trader in the pure chart image, if I still imagine that I additionally MACD, RSI and MA in the chart image would have the chaos perfect.

That's why I only recommend working with the pure chart image. There's all the information you need to succeed. Incidentally, if only the pure chart image, you pay more attention to things that others do not notice. The chart image is like a foreign language, but you can learn that too if you focus on it.

There is a nice sentence that I have heard from some successful traders:
When you enter into a trade, you should know in advance what happens.

With supply and demand, I can often achieve this goal, but not always.

I wish you much success

Best regards

Education is what is left when we forget what we have learned

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Before reading this article, please note the following. The statements made here are only my personal opinion. They are not scientifically proven and I do not claim to be right. These statements have only one goal: to help the reader.

At the beginning of my trader career, I had a friend who had tremendous trading expertise. At least that's what I thought at the time. He was able to explain all situations exactly and what he said sounded logical and understandable. He had an answer to every question and if you asked more precisely, he looked at you with wide eyes in the way: How can you ask such a stupid question?

A professor of business administration taught us at that time: There are no stupid questions, just stupid answers, but he did not allow such arguments.
This acquaintance regularly got involved with other specialists and sometimes the discussions about "China coming to the UN" did not stop there. I found his reasoning exciting and interesting at the time, but I could not understand it. I found this expertise impressive and one day hoping to have such profound knowledge to become a successful trader.

During my training as a Financial Analyst, I completed an intelligence test lasting several hours, which gave me an IQ well above average. This gave me further hope to understand this confusing stock market one day. One day I discovered the truth through a stupid coincidence. My friend, who had so much expertise, did not make a single dollar on the stock market. He lost more money than he invested. A world collapsed for me and I wondered how much knowledge one would have to have to succeed?

According to some studies, a high IQ does not guarantee a high income. Far more skills are needed to earn more money than the average in the long term. An important aspect is the emotional quotient and the art of simply grasping and formulating difficult things. The type of communication today more than ever decides on success and failure. If you have studied you will have noticed these differences among different professors. It was not the professor who made the wisest statements that was the winner, but the one who, through a simple and pictorial language, succeeded in inspiring the majority of students so much that it was easy for them to pick up and implement the material.

I have learned the following in my life:
Individuals who used their knowledge to humiliate other people were less successful in the long term than those who used their knowledge to solve problems together with other people. Knowledge is good, but not if you use knowledge to show others how stupid they are. How many times are there people who make statements that we can not immediately verify. So we do not contradict, because we lack the basics of knowledge. In most cases, the statements made are only hot air. However, we sometimes realize that only 10 years later, when we were able to gain experience in this area.

Now comes a truth that is very uncomfortable to accept.

Since the stock market, traders are trying to identify the secret of the stock market and find the holy grail. But look at the result after many trillion trades:
95% of all traders lose more money than they earn. Is that the holy grail? What does the result mean in terms of the secret of the stock market?
Well, we have not been able to decipher the secret with the last trillion trades and we will not decode it in the next few trillion trades. This is also logical and clear, since trading is based on a pure random principle. This principle ensures that the stock market can theoretically exist forever. If you were to crack the stock market code, that would be the end of the stock market right now.

If the stock code has not yet been identified, this means:
All statements on the stock market are purely hypothetical. A hypothesis is an assumption formulated in the form of a logical statement, the validity of which is considered possible, but which has not yet been proven or verified. This means whether the statement on the stock market sounds very smart or very stupid, in both cases it is not proven or verified and thus equally valid or invalid.

This applies to all the statements in the blogs of FF as well as for my blog, but I have never claims anything else. Of course, a hypothesis is hypothesized as long as it is verified, but since the stock market is based on pure coincidence, it may be very difficult to verify future hypotheses. This should not be dramatized negatively now, because after all, my statement does not change the already existing situation. There is no holy grail and no one can foresee the stock market concretely and permanently. These are the facts so far.

Let's take a look at nature. Nature has developed a thousand exciting things that look very complicated from the outside. On closer inspection, however, they are very simple. Maybe the stock market is also easier to understand. Trading is all about winning the majority of comparable trades over the long term. That's why we should start focusing on the simple things.

To gain more than to lose on the stock market, you have to optimize the probabilities in your favor. Objective: To find a system that increases the probability of winning more trades than losing. How can we achieve this goal faster? Answer: Through knowledge, intuition and information! Here are some tips on how to do it to save time. Please note that these tips are not completed.

How do I find my matching system?

Let's first define the word system. Under system I understand a trading setup, which allows the trader with a certain strategy buy or sell orders that he earns more money in the long term than loses. This does not mean automatic trading systems or a copy trading. What use are you automatic systems or a copy trading if you do not understand how the system works. The goal of a trader should be to be independent of others with his built-up system.

Once in the CFD area, take a break from costly indicators or tools. The same goes for seminars that often cost a lot of money. I do not want to say that these seminars do not work, but before they even know where to go, they do not need an expensive tool. If you find your way later, you can still invest your profits in continuing education. You are an entrepreneur and a real entrepreneur starts with small investments in the beginning. When the first successes occur, one can use these profits in the further development of his company.

How can I find an interesting system at FF now?

Let's start with the members. In total, there are almost 500,000 members at FF. Members who publish regular contributions and communicate with other members are so-called impact members. They are marked with a rhombus.

Red = High Impact Member = Top 2% about 620 members
Orange = Medium Impact Member = Top 5% about 930 members
Yellow = Low Impact Member = Top 10% Top about 1,550 members

With that I can reduce my choice to 3,000 members. This does not mean that the other members do not post well, it just means that they do not regularly post information. Let's just stay with these 3,000 members for the sake of simplicity. There is interesting information about these members that makes it easy for a new reader to find the best.

Unfortunately there is no search function in FF to filter out interesting blog writers out. But on each side of a member they get the following information.

Joined: month year
Buddies: number
Subscribers: number
Post: number
Last Online: Date
Trading from: Country

Now let's take 3 members who have different values. (we do not consider the country)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

At first glance it looks like Trader A has the most experience as he has posted the most threads, most subscribers follow him and he is the longest in the process. After that Trader B comes and at the end Trader C. Now let's have a closer look at the activity of the individual traders.



We realize that the picture is completely changed now. Trader C has 6.97 subscribers per month while Trader A only has 4.68 subscribers per month. Trader A has sold almost twice as many posts as Trader A. (buddies and subscribers were added together) Subscribers per month are a representative feature because people often only follow interesting topics that help them. This proves that even new members post interesting topics that are often accepted by other traders.

A picture is worth a thousand words. Make sure that a post with examples and pictures conveys more information than just plain text. Notice how the writer of a thread deals with its subscribers, how it criticizes, whether it makes fun of others and how it helps people.

An interesting feature is also the Ignored list. Sure, there are sometimes people who are annoying and you just have to lock. But if someone has 50 subscribers and has 25 on the ignored list, it might not just be the other one. This often has something to do with respect and interaction. There are always exceptions, but the subscribers already have a reason why they follow certain people or not. These factors do not guarantee that a trader will succeed or post topics that really help. But there are little hints if it pays to look closer.

Never underestimate the traders who are beginners. These traders may not have much experience yet, but they are not stupid. Only when a blog provides logical and interesting information, more and more traders will join this blog. Good and successful things communicate very quickly. I mean here only threads that provide information about a trading system and where to exchange regularly.

With this little help, I can ever separate the wheat from the chaff and quickly recognize whether a second look worthwhile. Under the heading: Trading Systems you will find nearly 3,000 different systems offered. Of course, they also get ideas and strategies in the other categories, but I would first start trading systems. As a rule, most of the contributions have also been published by Impact Member. Now we have to filter the 3,000 posts.

Take a distance from things that do not help you, meaningless discussions about topics that no one needs, you can find everywhere. Get involved and look for the topics and traders that communicate their strategy in an understandable way. Unfortunately, this is often about vanities and to prove that man are the best and most beautiful. But I think that most of us are able to distinguish between good and less good. Start with the latest blogs. Why? A current blog bears witness to current information. If a blog published in 2010 receives interesting and profitable information, it is still up to date today because it is simply good.

When they have selected the most up-to-date threads, they should check the match of a thread's statements. Take a look at the first and last post by the blog writer and compare these posts with each other? How long has the writer been working with this system? Is the first and last page similar or has the blog writer changed his system completely? How often do you have new information? Is the blog up to date or has it not been used for months? If a blogger has written several posts, they look at how strong the response was, or whether the blog was closed after a few posts already.

If you can answer these questions positively, you take the next step. Is the system simply explained? Can you understand it? Is it logical and does it fit with your trading style? Pay attention first of all to the statements of the blog writer and less to what the individual guests say. Often there are envious or disturbers who make unqualified statements, even though they do not know the system at all. If you do not understand a system because it's too complicated for you, leave it alone. If only indicators are used to make a buy or sell decision then you should be very critical and if that does not fit with your style, be finished the system.
If all questions are logical and understandable, try this system in different currency pairs at different times in a demo account.

After that you can make a decision.

If you try a system and do not implement it successfully, even though others may succeed, that does not mean that you are unable to do it. It just means that this system does not suit you. Forget it and keep looking.

Many traders are interested in optimizing their existing system or completely redesigning it. That's fine, because change means development, and the market we work in is evolving every day. However, you should not try to find a system that wins 100%. Each system has its advantages and disadvantages and will not produce the same results in every trend phase.

I admit that finding an optimal system is a big challenge and takes a lot of time. But believe me, that's worth it. Because if one day you have found the system with which you are successful, you can generate an interesting income. Forget about the great pictures that are often published in connection with Trading. A villa on the lake, sports cars, world travel and endless money. The truth is sobering in the beginning. An entrepreneur who rebuilds his company first has to invest in the beginning. And investment costs money and time. If you use these investments wisely you have a chance to become a successful trader. When I started trading, my main motivation was independence and not money.

Basically, I find it remarkable and exemplary when traders voluntarily and unselfishly offer their system to other people. Of course, it is very difficult to distinguish the good from the less good ideas. Unfortunately, I can not tell you which great trader will help you here on FF in the long term, but maybe this information will help you to make a decision faster. It took me many years, invested a lot of money and time to find my personal system with which I act successfully. I do not mean to say that I am one of the 5% of traders who rightly assess the market.

Decisive is your opinion and your success. You can only find it out by trying it out for yourself. In the demo account you lose no money, but time. However, investing time is an important milestone on the way to success.

Even if you discover that my system is not suitable for you, it will definitely help you and that's the most important point here:

Your personal success!

I sincerely wish you to reach your goal

best regards

EURUSD strong resistance zone

Hello dear traders,



In the daily chart EURUSD we see a strong resistance zone in the red line. This zone is now crucial whether an upward trend can prevail in the future. In the green zone, you can see a very strong demand zone on the left, reaching up to 1.255.

After going from 1.255 to 1.15, there was a short pullback. The sellers, however, were not quite served and the price was down sharply. The demand market is not really gaining momentum, the fear of another strong setback is too great. The red line is still a strong supply zone. Once it has been overcome, confidence in the upside can quickly recover. The first goal is the next few days with strong power through the red zone to the top. Then a pullback back to the red line and again strong upwards. This could usher in a turnaround and we are back on track.

However, there is a risk that supply on the red line will become significantly stronger than demand. The buyers are still cautious and the bears are fast in the game. If the bears get strong again, that could be a sign that focuses on the second green line. In this area, there is a stronger demand zone, which can cause a turnaround at the latest there.

But still is not lost and the turnaround could already prevail now, depending on how the course now reacts to this red zone.

I wish you a nice evening
best regards

Demand and supply since 1975


Dear Traders,

Today I would like to describe three strong price zones which we have encountered again and again since 1975. I have calculated these zones based on supply and demand from the last 43 years in the weekly chart. Let's take a look at how the course reacted to these lines.
From this we can draw possible conclusions for the future.

1975 to 1984



You will see blue arrows in the chart image. I have refrained from marking the arrows in color. Arrows pointing down mean that supply dominates demand, there are more sellers than buyers, the price is pushed down. Arrows pointing up mean: Demand dominates supply, there are more buyers than sellers the price is pushed up.
Of course, there are other zones that have an impact on the price movement, but we do not want to take this into account here.

1986 to 1994



Here we can already see significantly more supply and demand zones. It can be seen very clearly that the three zones are very often a start for a supply market or demand market.

1995 to 2004



Although we have a stronger supply market in the first 5 years, the price returns to our zones after a sharp decline. In the second half you can clearly see how demand is increasing.

2004 to 2012



The upper zone seems to be a limit, the course is pushed up again and again. This shows the strong demand, which, however, slowly decreases from the middle of the chart image. Supply is getting stronger and demand is failing to make new highs. Nevertheless, the upper zone keeps the course.

2010 to 2018



In 2012 there was a last desperate attempt to push the course back up, but by the end of 2014 the course finally broke through this strong zone, breaking through the second zone which finally ended up in our lowest zone. There was now an equilibrium. Let's take a closer look at the last 4 years.

2014 to 2018



In 2012 we see a strong equilibrium at the top zone at point 1 and then a strong breakthrough to the bottom zone. Thereafter, the course fluctuated between the lower and middle zones. You can see the strength of the supply market in the middle zone, which has pushed the price down again and again. Within the blue rectangle an equilibrium was created.

At point 2, a supply market emerged, after which the price had gone deeper into the zone3. This supply market accelerated and with a strong force the middle zone was broken. Nevertheless, the price continued to rise. There was a pullback and the course continued its journey to the upper zone. Where, on the top left in 2012, a strong equilibrium arose, the course was slowed down. This is exactly where a strong supply market prevailed. That's why, on January 1, 2018, on my blog, I had suggested that the price at 1.25 would make it a stronger setback. Although I was correct, I misjudged how far the course would run back. From the lower to the middle zone there is a strong demand market. From the upper to the middle zone there is a strong supply market. Exactly on the middle line meet supply and demand.

There are now 3 scenarios if the price should reach the middle line.

1.It creates an equilibrium, as buyers and sellers agree. After that, the direction is open.
2.The course bounces off the middle zone and continues its journey upwards.
3.The course breaks through the middle zone. It depends on which strength he breaks through this zone to have enough power to continue down to run.

After equilibrium within the rectangle, the market has decided it is going up. The course broke through the middle zone and continued to run upwards. That was an indication that the sellers were satisfied. Only at 1.255 was again a strong supply market. I suspect that the middle zone could now appear as a strong resistance after the recent years.

This does not mean that the price is rejected directly, but that the price could move strongly towards 1.399 thereafter.
Look at the zones in the smaller time units, this gives a possible overview of supply and demand.

I wish you a successful week

Best regards

High frequency traders at work?

Hello dear traders,

On June 14, 2018, the price has been pushed down by almost 300 pip. Then it went slowly back up 100 pip. Many were already hoping for a turnaround. But shortly thereafter it was down by 110 pip. Traders became more cautious.



Let's take a look at the last 2 days in the M5. On the left side they see the 110 pip crash. At point 1 there was an equilibrium after which supply dominated. At point 2 we see another equilibrium, then a demand market, then a supply market and then demand dominated until point 1. The price fell to the middle resistance level and then came into the area with which we now want to occupy ourselves more closely. (blue rectangle)

Let's say you are a big player, a high-frequency trader in fact. You have so much capital that you are able to move the price by 70 -100 pips. You belong to the category Scalper. What is your most important principle? If you place an order you should take as few traders as possible on the journey. Because as soon as these traders get off in the course of the course, this will slow the price down. This means the traders must be misled. Than you can placing your big order.



At point 1, you see the morning pre-trading with little volatility. The market is in an equilibrium with a slight tendency to supply. At point 2, I now give smaller buy orders in the market to see how the market reacts. My buy order is repeatedly pushed through the supply market to the blue resistance line. At point 3, I push the market up with some buy orders and wait. Many traders see in it a smaller uptrend and buy. The trend is accelerating. At point 4 my take profit and a high sell limit order lie. After the course has reached this zone, the course drops to point 5. I wait a moment.

The trend is accelerating as more sellers join. The price drops to the strong resistance level at point 6. Many now assume that the price will rise again. I let the price go up a bit and push a massive sell order into the market. The price drops another 33 pip. At point 7, I gradually get off all orders. This ensures that the price rises massively. Twice I stopped the majority of traders in 15 minutes and was able to get through my course. The course returns to the mean resistance line and turns into equilibrium at point 8. This clearly shows the market uncertainty that prevails now. In principle, I could stock up on shopping orders unnoticed within Equilibrium. The market believes anyway that it goes up again and I'm now happy to take this trip with a few buy orders. I can not lose anything now because I took about 55 pip in the morning. For a day in which the high low 65 pip, the result was profitable at a manageable risk.

Certainly, the scenario has not developed exactly as I described it, but it is once to stimulate the situation of the big players to move. We as small players can hardly move the market, but let us drive from the market. But if we let ourselves drift from the market, we must at least know where the journey goes.
So we have to try to think like big players and start reading their tracks. This increases our chances of winning more and losing less.

Of course, the market is much more complicated and my point of view far too simple, but maybe this is the secret that makes the success.

I wish you a nice evening.

Best regards

An experiment with supply and demand


Hello dear traders,

Today we dare once an experiment with supply and demand to clarify what power the Equilibrium (which is exactly in between) has.



Let's go into the monthly chart 1977 to 1996. At point 1, you see a very strong uptrend of 1,000 pip. We identify this demand market once with a green bar. At point 2 we see a strong equilibrium and then a strong uptrend. We record the strongest bars. At points 3 and 4 we proceed in a similar way, but mark a strong supply market with one red bar each.



Now let's take a look at the situation from 1970 to today. You realize that our roughly marked zones (supply and demand) had a huge effect on the price performance. Of course, in the course of a share price market, a demand market will also become a supply market and a supply market a demand market. Nevertheless, the strength is clearly visible.



We go into the year 2002-2018 and draw on the same principle our supply market and demand market. At point 1 we had a strong demand market. At point 2, we had a strong supply market. You realize how these two markets meet each other. In zone A, supply in zone C dominates demand. Zone B could initiate a possible turnaround.



Let's take a closer look at this Zone B and take a closer look at the situation in the Daily Chart. At point 1, the course came from below and there was a gap of 70 pip. The course went up, back and accepted at point 2, the drawn line as resistance. Then it went up sharply.



Now let's take a look at the result. You see how from above the supply market pushes down and the demand market pushes up. In our marked line, both markets meet. In smaller timeframes, we can now further restrict the turnaround, but I think the approach is clear. I think we should pay attention to this area the next days or weeks. Of course you can not identify concrete resistance zones and support zones, but it helps to identify supply and demand.

Try it yourself and mark supply and demand zones. Pay attention to the Equilibrium and look what impact that had on the price. I believe that you are making interesting discoveries.

I wish you success

Best regards

Suspected and entered

Dear Traders,



On June 18, 2018, at around 8:00 pm CET, I pointed out a strong resistance zone and strong support zone. For a better overview I used a H1.
It's not that I was right and could foresee the course, because frankly I'm not in a position to do so. But it shows once more what power and accuracy, supply demand and equilibrium can have.

If supply and demand can filter out these specific zones, that's a huge advantage for a trader. That's why this blog was launched. Please note that even I can not always pinpoint these zones. But the probability of making a profitable trade has risen many times over by Equilibrium. One reason more to deal with it once.

best regards

Hello dear traders,



The strong red zone I drew has strongly dejected the course to the green zone. There we had a strong supply market. The course has now returned to the red zone. Within this strong zone, the course has now formed an equilibrium. That could be a sign that we could get a big boost up.
Pay attention to this zone.

best regards

Hello dear traders,



here is the next important resistance for me. We should also keep an eye on them.

best regards

Bad luck!

Hello dear traders,

In the last few days equilibrium (supply and demand) has been used to determine resistance levels and reversal points very closely.



Also, my assessment of yesterday's noon was correct that the price now tends more upward. At 13:41 CET, I draw a strong resistance zone (point 2) and placed a sell limit order there.



In the Asian market, the price has continued to rise. In front of my marked line, the course turned and went down 60 pip. Unfortunately, my limit order was not triggered. I did not want to go in manually because I thought the course would come in again. Afterwards I neglected the Equilibrium at the point 1. I probably would have increased the resistance a bit and my limit order was triggered. So you can see, you can often be fooled, because you overlook small details in the chart.
In the case, nothing happened because there was no loss, but it is always annoying if you were basically correct, but not picked up.

The M30 chart was clear and I would have increased the resistance. Precisely for this reason it is important to search in other time units for a confirmation of the marked resistance lines.

I wish you much success in today's trade
best regards

Supply zones and demand zones

Hello dear traders,

As we can see, the price has not yet reached the crucial demand zone, which gives it the necessary push for a turnaround. After the course had worked in the past few days, again and again a bit up, he was pressed down again and again strongly.



Here I once tried to draw in a monthly chart the supply zones and demand zones. At first sight, this looks a bit chaotic, but this leads to resistance and support. At the moment, the price is in a resistance zone, which is not strong enough yet.



Let's take a closer look. At point 1 we can see how the price was pushed through a strong supply zone in 2014 up to point 2 (2015). After that, he oscillated between point 2 and point 3. (Equilibrium) At the beginning of 2017, the price finally reached the crucial demand zone at point 4, pushing up the price to point 5.
The point 4 was in the ratio only a little below the point 2. I have drawn there three black lines. The price entered the upper resistance zone once, causing the price to rise to 1.255. But there was already a strong supply market there. In 2015 and 2016, the price rose twice to reach point 3 and was twice strongly rejected. Only at point 5, this strong zone was overcome. Therefore, I believe that Zone 5 is still a strong resistance.



The blue zone is in my focus for a possible trend reversal. However, that does not mean it will happen as well. If one draws with the help of the Equilibrium zones, one has possible trend turns in the focus. Based on the subordinate time units, you can determine additional zones. This gradually brings you closer to the actual resistance zones, increasing your chances of getting more hits.

I will outline and upload a concrete example on the weekend.

Thanks again to all of you for the support so far and good luck today and tomorrow in the trade.

Best regards
Michael

Hello dear traders,



For two weeks the EURUSD is in a big 4H equilibrium. The price does not seem to rise or fall sharply. I would like to record a possible scenario once.
Perhaps the course could once again run into Zone 1 and be strongly rejected. He would have the power to reach Zone 2. In zone 2 is a stronger demand zone, which could then bring the course towards zone no. 3. Should the price fall very steeply, Zone 4 would have an even stronger demand zone which could provide a strong boost to the upside. For me, Zone 2 is now crucial as the course is pushed up there.

I did not make my promised example of Equilibrium at the weekend, I'll do it as soon as possible.

I wish you a nice week
best regards

Dear Traders,



As written 3 days ago, we have reached the resistance area of point 1. In this area we have a supply market. However, this does not mean that the price must go down immediately. The green line represents the resistance range. From my starting point, the price has already risen 70 pip. At the bottom of the green line is a stronger supply market. This resistance range has not yet been reached.
Let's see how the course responds within the black lines.

Good luck this week
best regards

Trust is good, control is better

Dear Traders,



less than a week ago I posted a green resistance in H4 based on supply and demand. (Yellow arrow)



Let's see what happened in M1 Chart when the price came into my first zone. He was dismissed by 18 pip within a minute. Nevertheless, the course was able to prevail after that and has continued to rise.



At the end of my green zone, the price was now pushed down by 57 pip.



In the M15 you can see that a bit more clearly. The important here are the zones you draw for you. There you can bet well on a short-term change of course. The long-term view is incidental and not crucial.

Although I also believe that the price will fall even further, as a Scalper I am rather short-term oriented. I hope you see how well the zones work again and again. Of course, that's rarely 100 pip or more. But if you work with a 5 -10 pip stop on a target between 15 and 50 pip, that's an excellent result. The difference is that you act as a scalper with much higher contracts and only for a short time in the market.

As a rule I am out of all positions in the evening, I do not have to constantly watch the course develop and have reduced my risk by staying in the market for a short time. Breakouts are less interesting for me, but confirming my resistance zones. This can be seen here again very nice.



You see, as in point 1, a breakout shoots through my zone, this breakout does not interest me and it does not annoy me that I missed it. But I am particularly interested in the second and third point, as soon as the course returns to my zone. Here I am also willing to stay a little longer in the market. At point 3, I am a little faster out, as I suspect a pullback here and think that the course will continue to run down.

Of course I am often wrong, but when it comes down to it, I'm often right as wrong. This only works for me through supply and demand. Quite simply uncomplicated and effective. And in the evening, I can take my time to quit, sometimes with some loss and more often with some profit. You can compare Scalpen with a jet pilot. A jet pilot also has more stress than the pilot of a glider. He can also crash faster, but is often faster at the finish.

A scalper is no better or worse than a daytrader, it's just different. Get in and out quickly, sometimes 4 trades a day and sometimes only 1 trade. Sometimes you are only a few minutes in the market, then again a few hours, which always comes on the resistance lines to which you have drawn.

The most important is your own trust, I trust no indicator, no message and no forecast. I trust only myself and that's exactly what you should do from today.
Do not trust my drawings and forecasts, but start creating your own forecasts. At some point you can absolutely trust this one.

I wish that from the heart.

best regards

Supply and demand can be so easy.

Hello dear traders,

less than 3 days ago or better before 68 hours I have posted the following.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

You see, as in point 1, a breakout shoots through my zone, this breakout does not interest me and it does not annoy me that I missed it. But I am particularly interested in the second and third point, as soon as the course returns to my zone. Here I am also willing to stay a little longer in the market. At point 3, I am a little faster out, as I suspect a pullback here and think that the course will continue to run down.
I was not sure if the course went down immediately, but the downside variation was more obvious to me than the upside.

Let's take a look at the result:



With the yellow line I gave my prognosis. I had marked the green resistance line. The price was 5 pips higher than I had expected. You can see that my green resistance has caused a sharp decline twice. Likewise, my black resistance lines, which were responsible for interesting trend changes.
From my forecast to the present day, the price has fallen by 100 pip. I hope you recognize that supply and demand are an interesting alternative that will help a trader without great resources to enter into interesting trades.

How to analyze and draw these lines has been extensively described in this blog. It is crucial to train this line drawing and then observe how the course behaves on these lines. So you lose no money and can practice this practice and training in peace.

Since I'm doing some exams in Java at the moment, I have a little less time, but that will change again in the foreseeable future. I passed the first exam OCP perfectly, now the OCA and EE are missing. In 3 weeks, the topic should be off the table. Then I have much more time again, as I'm still 7 hours a day in the trade.

I wish you much success this week

best regards