Trading Institutional Order Flow

Hello,

how do you think about gold??

many thanks

Hi Ivan,

After studying Akt's and Alfonso's similar threads for the past two months, I can relate to your current situation regarding the elusive "Rules". Below are some thoughts and hopefully a bit of help.

Trading Institutional Order Flow
Often mentioned in this thread as being quite helpful are *Akt's Back to Basics (BTB) videos*. Unfortunately these videos appear to have been removed except for one, "Back to Basics B T B Trendlines" which can be found at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCBf...x3hHl3g/videos.

Supply and Demand in a Nutshell
Mentioned throughout this thread are *Alfonso's Rules in Post #1*. Unfortunately the rules were removed from Post #1, and substituted for a watered-down eBook.

The most helpful item I found is the attached pdf file. It contains Alfonso's Post #1 Rules as of Feb. 27, 2014. Keep in mind that Alfonso was using only TWO TIMEFRAMES for trading at that time.

If anyone has a more recent set of rules, please send me a Private Message.

Hi bparks,

Glad to have someone understand perfectly my struggles in understanding the rules. Thank you for the PDF and i will make sure to check it out.
Im like a kid opening a christmas present now.

Cheers,
Ivan

That short worked like a charm @ 1.1720. Two new supply zones on 4hr, bias is still to the downside, but waiting for conformation. Dollar is at resistance, so we might have a bullish move on euro.

Hello everyone

Some thoughts on the AUDUSD.
One on the Watchlist for us..

best wishes

Hello everyone.

I hope everyone is having some rest and relaxation, enjoying the summer and the world cup

CADJPY for daily income... some thoughts i have on it.

best wishes

Hello everyone
Hope you are all enjoying a glorious summer and the worldcup

Some thoughts on the NZDCAD

best wishes

Hello everyone

For the patient swing traders amongst us, here is a trade idea in Sugar discussed a few weeks ago.

Before and after, so far so good

best wishes

Hello everyone,

its been awhile

here is my outlook on Gold.

waiting to go long on the 4hr.

Looks good mate. If news this weeks turns bad for the dollar then we will def see gold going up.

my next setup..



just watch my last NFP trade here

thanks 'n regards,
sonigl

Hello Everyone,

here is a recent trade I took with the RT guys..

hello everyone,

I gt filled on GJ but saw this basing and then manually exited according to my trade plan.

was it really a demand zone ?

Hey Akt and other traders, i would like to share my experience having traded this methodology for half a year. When i first started trading this strategy, all i used was discretion because i wasn't sure what the moving parts were. Now that i have a better grasp the different moving parts, i tried to mechanize my approach. Surprisingly i did worse using a strict rules based approach. Upon further forward testing of a rules based approach vs. a discretionary approach (>100 trades), it turns out that trading this methodology based on discretion, for me, is the better option. I feel like when i use a mechanical approach, i will miss certain details in the price action that i would have taken into account when trading with discretion. Has anyone else experienced the same thing? Any comment welcomed.

Demand zone is on the daily..

I got out a 3:1 so i am happy with that.

Hello fuadj

If i may, i think T4i was pointing out the short trade on the EURSGD, not a demand zone..

This was one of the trades discussed at sunday's roundtable meeting

best wishes

Hello bhopris0
Thank you very much for discussing your experience and approach of using supply and demand.

If i may, i am not sure what parts of your approach you tried to mechanize but in my own experience, any methodology or approach must by definition have a set
of rules and guidance as to best practices.

Discretion is a level of trading that can be quite subjective and by definition, is not repeatable on an ongoing basis. The reason for this is that discretion is based on several factors not least, how one is feeling on the day, how the market is moving, the condition of the current trend etc.

Having a set of guidelines and rules ensures the trader has a consistent, repeatable process to follow. I am not sure what set of rules you use so i can't really comment on their usefulness or otherwise. More importantly, i definitely wouldn't even dream of asking about how much consistency and fidelity went into the application of the rules you used over the last 6 months.

What i can say is, for me personally, the application of a rule based approach is what i was taught and have applied.

I hope anyone reading and/or contributing to the thread will already know that here the traders are encouraged to go on their own journeys in speculating, learning their craft and finding their path in trading, regardless of the methodology they use. All that differs is that this thread focuses on the supply and demand methodology, the mindset required to speculate and the development of the trader as a whole rather than a complete reliance on a methodology.

So bhopris, i would urge you consider why you appear to miss certain opportunities in price action when you apply your rules keeping in mind that the outcome of a trade is not what determines the quality of a trade or set of trades. That last past is very important because a good set up can and will lose, many times, while for a time, lower probability set ups will work, many times...

Keep working, keep your chin up and give yourself time..

best wishes

Hello everyone

I thought as the markets are in summer mode and obviously slower it would be a good time to revisit some of the general concepts and ideas that underpin the methodology we all use.

Please bear in mind these are just my thoughts and are general guide-lines. Hopefully a good starting point/refresher...

best wishes

CARDINAL RULES
Rule: Only pullbacks to demand and rallies to supply are allowed when trading Supply and demand. Breakouts are not traded broadly speaking, as they are another approach and not part of the core methodology.

Rule: Only 2 patterns of supply and 2 for demand are used
1. DBR & RBR Demand
2. RBD & DBD Supply
Rule: Any zones being considered for trading must be one of these 4 zones

GENERAL RULES FOR TREND AND MOMENTUM
Rule: Trends are defined using supply and demand, not trend lines
Rule: An uptrend is in place when demand levels are being respected and supply levels being removed.
Rule: Supply zones are not created in an uptrend
Rule: Demand zones are not created in a downtrend
Rule: A downtrend becomes an uptrend when one or both of the following criteria is fulfilled:
1. 2 supply zones are removed
2. 1 supply zone is removed AND it is possible to define upside momentum using a momentum line
Rule: A downtrend is in place when supply levels are being respected and demand levels are being removed
Rule: An uptrend becomes a downtrend when one or both of the following criteria is fulfilled:
1. 2 demand zones are removed
2. 1 demand zone is removed AND it is possible to define downside momentum using a momentum line
Rule: Momentum lines are used to define momentum, not trend
Rule: A momentum line is drawn by joining pivot points closest to current price
1. An upward momentum line is constructed using the two closest pivot lows to current price
2. A downward momentum line is constructed using the two closest pivot highs to current price
Rule: A pivot low can only be used in drawing an upward momentum line if the rally from the pivot low makes a higher high than the high before the pivot low
Rule: A pivot high can only be used in drawing a downward momentum line if the drop from the pivot high makes a lower low than the low before the pivot high
Rule: A sideways trend occurs when there is a break in a momentum line and/or there is a removal of an opposing zone to the prevailing trend without the ability to define new momentum

RULES FOR ZONE TRADABILITY
Rule: For a zone to be considered trade-able the imbalance from the zone must measure at least twice the size of the zone
Rule: A price level can be demand or supply zone and yet be un-tradeable
Rule: The zone should ideally be fresh. Only one shallow penetration is allowable
Rule: For a zone to be used for set and forget trading, the move away from that zone must not be met by immediate opposing action that causes an immediate return to a zone.

Hello everyone

Here is the EURSGD as discussed in our Sunday RT meeting

before and after

best wishes