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  • #141
  • Jun 26, 2018 10:48am Jun 26, 2018 10:48am
done for today.
Euro is losing steam, volatility is narrowed.
probably will move to Yen before U.S. data tomorrow.
as 8:30am est Core Durable Goods Orders may change the situation.
  • #142
  • Jun 27, 2018 1:09am Jun 27, 2018 1:09am
6/27/2018 session3:
strong support at 1.1637 for Euro spot.
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bearish news for now.
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the move will probably not happen untill 4:00am est.
will prepare for that.
  • #143
  • Edited 2:56am Jun 27, 2018 2:41am | Edited 2:56am
two upcoming events on Euro:
0400am EST EURO M3, insignificant to price change.
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0830am EST US CORE DURABLE, significantly relative to price change.
if better than expectation, surely bad for Euro dollar in the next 30 mins, and vise versa.
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  • #144
  • Jun 27, 2018 6:30am Jun 27, 2018 6:30am
6/27/2018 session4:
Long Euro.
bad news from Italy but the U.S. dollar sentiment may be worse:
Gold showed a sign of temporarily rebound; 10 year T bond yield down today.
will limit the max accumulative position to narrow the risk, since no hedging right now.
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Gold stopped dropping.
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Bond yield down, U.S. dollar has pressure.
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  • #145
  • Jun 27, 2018 10:06am Jun 27, 2018 10:06am
Quoting Derecho
6/27/2018 session4: Long Euro.{image}
6/27/2018 session4 recap:
stopped out.
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  • #146
  • Jun 27, 2018 10:24am Jun 27, 2018 10:24am
6/27/2018 session5:
Long Euro again.
with no hedge.
with tight stop.
  • #147
  • Jun 27, 2018 10:30am Jun 27, 2018 10:30am
Euro long based on the standard Gartley pattern, of course the pattern would fail, statistically.
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  • #148
  • Jun 28, 2018 2:54am Jun 28, 2018 2:54am
Quoting Derecho
Euro long based on the standard Gartley pattern, of course the pattern would fail, statistically. {image}
leg D of the pattern failed to complete, near new low before the EU summit.
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  • #149
  • Jun 28, 2018 4:10am Jun 28, 2018 4:10am
no plan today as it took new low, and, ugly chart.
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  • #150
  • Edited 12:01pm Jun 28, 2018 4:58am | Edited 12:01pm
U.S. GDP data at 0830 est has little to do on Euro, historically.
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  • #151
  • Jun 28, 2018 11:41am Jun 28, 2018 11:41am
6/28/2018 session5:
Euro stabilized, long again.
first trade today.
divergence may happen today, as the price is not likely to rise 70pips in the next 4 hours.
EU council press conference will be held at 1400 est.
  • #152
  • Jun 28, 2018 12:59pm Jun 28, 2018 12:59pm
Quoting Derecho
6/28/2018 session5: EU council press conference will be held at 1400 est.
There is a delay on the press conference, will be held on 1455 est, not sure if there is any solution for the immigration issue.
by the way someone just dumped 5000 lots Aug gold in 2mins.

cleared my position, left 1 lot. in case of uncertainty.
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  • #153
  • Jun 29, 2018 2:18am Jun 29, 2018 2:18am
Quoting Derecho
{quote} There is a delay on the press conference, will be held on 1455 est, not sure if there is any solution for the immigration issue.{image}
finally reached a deal on migration on 2235 est.
a little bit late.
however my 1 lot is gaining from the news.
  • #154
  • Jun 29, 2018 2:45am Jun 29, 2018 2:45am
6/28/2018 recap of Euro news:

timeline of how to reach a deal.
patience can bring more.

Source of news: FT.com, Reuters News

1) before the summit: Merkel really have to make the deal.
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2) 1420 est: Italy blocked the deal, however all members have to agree soon or later, thats how EU works.
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3) 1501 est: A signal that the deal will soon be reached.
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4) 2236 est: Deal reached on 2236 est.
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5) 2308 est: Conte said "Italy is no longer alone after this EU summit".
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6) 2338 est: Details of the agreement.
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  • #155
  • Jun 29, 2018 3:12am Jun 29, 2018 3:12am
6/29/2018 session3:
focus on Euro.
new bad news, retreat for 38% at the moment.
time to long.
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  • #156
  • Jun 29, 2018 3:28am Jun 29, 2018 3:28am
Quoting Derecho
6/29/2018 session3: time to long. {image}
statistically, 29% chance to fall into the grey box today.
the long at the moment sits on a solid basis.
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  • #157
  • Jun 29, 2018 3:32am Jun 29, 2018 3:32am
Quoting Derecho
{quote} statistically, 29% chance to fall into the grey box today. the long at the moment sits on a solid basis. {image} {image}
Long accumulation and short hedge are all set.
hopefully a good range trading zone in U.K. morning session.
  • #158
  • Jun 29, 2018 3:42am Jun 29, 2018 3:42am
Quoting Derecho
{quote} Long accumulation and short hedge are all set. hopefully a good range trading zone in U.K. morning session.
things happened too fast, all deals are stacked together in 15 mins.
short hedge is necessary in volatile market, to lock some profit first.
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  • #159
  • Jun 29, 2018 3:58am Jun 29, 2018 3:58am
Quoting Derecho
{quote} statistically, 29% chance to fall into the grey box today. the long at the moment sits on a solid basis. {image} {image}
the situation is like chess.
29% probability to fall into the grey box means 71% chance to go up, or go down below 1.1548 (thats too far away).
so roughly it has 71% to go up, a very decent odds.
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  • #160
  • Jun 29, 2018 11:25am Jun 29, 2018 11:25am
Quoting Derecho
so roughly it has 71% to go up, a very decent odds. {image}
now its like this.
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done for today, this week was behind the target, as there were Monday and Wednesday in the big loss.
In sum, Jun was a tough month, black swans every week, big drop once per two-year, new low, new low, and new low, big up, big down.
cleared all the positions for a clean and clear July.
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good weekend!
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