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Institutional Equivalent Education?

  • #621
  • Jun 22, 2018 12:21pm Jun 22, 2018 12:21pm
A very busy week for me. I am feeling lazy so this screenshot says it all:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Friday chat.png Size: 143 KB
  • #622
  • Jun 23, 2018 1:47am Jun 23, 2018 1:47am
16:1 sounds too good to be true.
That is extremely for one week let alone a night.

Do People who do this "course" make this too? 16:1 must be on very small timeframe and stop loss.
  • #623
  • Edited 3:32am Jun 23, 2018 3:16am | Edited 3:32am
Quoting MLeslie
16:1 sounds too good to be true. That is extremely for one week let alone a night. Do People who do this "course" make this too? 16:1 must be on very small timeframe and stop loss.


Hi MLeslie,
You misread the post I made about my winnings ( those posts were made i Ray's live room) :
What I said was:
A). I had a bad day on Thursday- traded 10 times bigger than I meant to, or thought. and ended that day with a loss of -13%.
B). I had a fairly good day on Friday making a profit of +6.9%
C). I was unable to trade for a fair bit of Monday and Tuesday due to Hospital tests.
D). My total profit for the week (even after that 13% loss) was 16%
E). It was a very busy trading week , even for me. I made a total of 367 trade parts with 73% winners. The total real 'trades' is less than that because I am a multi-unit, multi-entry, multi-exit trader and my broker accounts for every different entry/exit as a separate 'trade part'.

I don't know what you mean by 16:1. If you mean Reward to Risk ( R:R ) then:
1). I don't (in fact can't) measure that.
2). That so-called measure is B*S anyway.

If you are asking if other people do as well as me, then yes, some do. In fact I have posted in this thread (back in February) about V. H. and she has been doing an awful lot better than me (trading 19K to 1.2 Mill over a 5 month period with no additions to the account, but only trading for about 3 1/2 of those months).
There are several others doing very well but who don't show their accounts, or even talk about their big wins.

Just after I posted about my 16% for the week, a new student, a guy called john k. said he had almost matched me by gaining 15.66% - I think he said it was his best week ever.

I expect to make over 10% profit per week - when I don't go 'On Tilt', but I have been a Ray student since he started in April 2014 and I trade full-time and work hard at both the study and the trading because I am passionate about it - I would do it like a hobby' i.e. even if I was losing money.

P.S. 16% in 1 night as a very occasional news trade, isn't anything special. I made over +10% trading this last Oil Inventories (in less than 2hrs). By biggest win in a single night's political news trading (again posted in this thread) was over 50%, but 'Mr Carlsberg' did around 150% and Ray for his Institution did over his whole year's target and was told to go home well before the move finished. All those were on the same night.
  • #624
  • Jun 23, 2018 3:47am Jun 23, 2018 3:47am
I prepared this document as part of a series I am doing for my newer Self Help Group members. But then I thought it doesn't contain anything proprietary - so I can also share it in here.

Attached File(s)
File Type: doc How I Trade.doc   2.4 MB | 498 downloads
  • #625
  • Jun 23, 2018 4:12am Jun 23, 2018 4:12am
Thanks for reply. did not mean to sound negative.
You said lost 13%. 10 times more than you would risk. So 1% your normal risk?
I do not understand why you dont know what risk you have. Surely you know what risk you have on a market at any one time.
Nice charts. 16% gain but you didnt risk 100% correct?
  • #626
  • Jun 23, 2018 6:24am Jun 23, 2018 6:24am
Quoting MLeslie
Thanks for reply. did not mean to sound negative. You said lost 13%. 10 times more than you would risk. So 1% your normal risk? I do not understand why you dont know what risk you have. Surely you know what risk you have on a market at any one time. Nice charts. 16% gain but you didnt risk 100% correct?


Hi MLeslie,
You are (wrongly) interpreting what I said because of your purely retail style experience. I said that my size was 10 time bigger - so you assume that this means I am risking 10 times more than my normal max risk per trade.
This is not so, because :-

1). My max risk is different for for different trade types - it depends upon the probability of the trade. This is why I can't give you a risk figure for the whole week, but yes I do know my risk at all times on each trade - so long as I don't get 'Fat Finger' problems.

2). I make use of all the benefits (both in profit-maximising and in stress-reduction) of Multi-Unit trading - rather like the Institutional traders do. This means that I both layer/scale in to a trade and I also use several Profit Take points which can change depending upon price action. It is only the ultimate Exit Target that (usually) stays constant should I be lucky enough to ride it that long. But if it is going good, then I will also lock in profit and add in some more size at suitable points. Again, this adding-in is what Institutional traders do and it is also taught by both Ray and on the MAX standard course (though they both have slightly different ways of doing it).

The above are the reasons why I can't quote R:R or even my overall % at risk on a daily basis. I could work out my average % risk, but this would take a lot of work and is pretty pointless. Hence I measure my trading by total % profit or loss and the % win rate of all my trade parts.


And no, I didn't ever risk 100% even when I 'fat fingered' that entry size.
  • #627
  • Jun 23, 2018 6:32am Jun 23, 2018 6:32am
Stop Loss discussion:
While typing in some of these last few posts a discussion about Stop Losses was taking place in our Self Help Group Skype.

Here are some extracts that may be of interest:

H: Coming back to the SL in 6E again: I experimented quite a bit with it. In the beginning, I only used 5 ticks, but obviously got stopped out a lot. Then I thought:"Are you insane?? 5 ticks in 6E are equal to 2.5 Pips, only! How can you use such a tight stop in such a volatile market??" Hence, I then opted for 10 ticks.
In between I had a phase when I moved the SL to -5 after price had gone 5 ticks in my favour, or to just above the last high, but had a few of those annoying "Being stopped out exactly to the tick."-experiences with it (see picture below for such an example), so I decided to keep it at -10 until my first target gets reached (then moving to BE). But that is also not carved in stone; if e.g. price gets to 9 ticks, only (which happens astonishingly often, especially if price had moved a few ticks against me after my entry...You go: "Come on! Move just one lousy tick lower, please! I'm only asking for 5 Pips here!" LOL) and then I see strong buying coming in and feel that they might probably continue the accumulation and move beyond the previous highs one more time. I tell myself: If they indeed do that, I rather try and re-enter at a better price. You might say: Why don't you close the trade at +8 o +9 then? My answer: Sometimes after such buying, price instantly ticks up a few ticks and by the time you click the "FLAT" button you might end up with 5 or 6 ticks, only. Don't want to do that. That's not what I had risked 10 ticks for.
Here's the example of a stop-out to the tick in 6E in early June:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Stopped out to the tick (6E).jpg Size: 164 KB


M: Yeah I agree with you H..... you never know for sure if you will be stopped out or not....There's been times like you I've been stopped out and missed the boat.....I try and re-enter on a low volume test or a squeeze out of the balance area.....I like your screen shot did you notice the liquidity getting added below on that last stop run?

Ian F. : More on Stop Loss sizes: As well as considering the thickness of the market, the volatility and the Price Action and the Volume, I also take into consideration the type of trade (especially its probability) and whether I will be layering in as price goes against me; whether I will be re-entering at each new C-Liquidity after I get stopped out; or if it is just a one-time shot at it. What I mean by type of trade is that a Fade of the main trend which also goes against the shorter term trend is the toughest trade in the book, but a for Wobble or a Squeeze then a much tighter Stop Loss is in order.
To me your 10 tick initial stop loss seems to be the worst of both worlds. By that I mean that if you get stopped out 3,4 or 5 times in a row then 10 ticks will hurt. On the other hand a 10 tick stop Loss is far too small to allow you to layer in - I use a much bigger one (at least 50 pips) for that, I think N..... only uses about 20 to 40 pips for her 4 Layers.
  • #628
  • Jun 23, 2018 8:01am Jun 23, 2018 8:01am
Quoting ianf0ster
Stop Loss discussion: While typing in some of these last few posts a discussion about Stop Losses was taking place in our Self Help Group Skype. Here are some extracts that may be of interest: H: Coming back to the SL in 6E again: I experimented quite a bit with it. In the beginning, I only used 5 ticks, but obviously got stopped out a lot. Then I thought:"Are you insane?? 5 ticks in 6E are equal to 2.5 Pips, only! How can you use such a tight stop in such a volatile market??"
Hence, I then opted for 10 ticks. In between I had a
phase when I moved...
Thanks for response.
Without being exact. It sounds like you have 5-7% risk on the market sometimes.

20-40 pips and you make 10-20% a week? You aren't risking 1-2%. Much more. I'd be careful. Sounds dangerous.
  • #629
  • Jun 23, 2018 10:29am Jun 23, 2018 10:29am
Quoting MLeslie
{quote} Thanks for response. Without being exact. It sounds like you have 5-7% risk on the market sometimes. 20-40 pips and you make 10-20% a week? You aren't risking 1-2%. Much more. I'd be careful. Sounds dangerous.
Thanks for the warning, but I have been trading like this for 18 months so I know what I am doing.
Yes my Max Risk on some trades is quite high, but so is their %win rate and expectancy. These are the Oil Inventories trades and certain News Event trades which I have been trading for nearly 4yrs now.
On other trades where either they have a lower expectancy or probability it is under 1%, as it is when a trade takes off without giving me better prices at which to enter with more size.

But remember this isn't done on just 1 trade per week, or even 1 trade per day - more like a minimum of 10 trades per day up as high as sometimes 30 trades in a day.

My general tolerance for a day's loss is around 1 normal week's profits.

With my win rate per trade (not per trade part) of around 90%, I am OK with winning for 10 days and then losing 5 days worth of profits.
  • #630
  • Jun 23, 2018 5:01pm Jun 23, 2018 5:01pm
Very interesting. I never thought of risk that way.
I watched Free videos, the guy knows his stuff. Does every student do risk management that way? At this high % return do you make millions per year? Or plan to?
  • #631
  • Jun 24, 2018 4:58am Jun 24, 2018 4:58am
Quoting MLeslie
Very interesting. I never thought of risk that way. I watched Free videos, the guy knows his stuff. Does every student do risk management that way? At this high % return do you make millions per year? Or plan to?
I risk 0.5% on a trade and generally make between 1-3% a day return. With Rays teaching I have been able to narrow my stop on 6E (EURUSD futures) to around 8-10 points which is roughly 4-5 ticks on the spot. So price doesnt have to move much for me to achieve those returns.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #632
  • Jun 24, 2018 10:11am Jun 24, 2018 10:11am
Quoting MLeslie
Very interesting. I never thought of risk that way. I watched Free videos, the guy knows his stuff. Does every student do risk management that way?


Not all Ray's students do multi-unit, multi-entry levels, Multi-Profit-take levels type trading:

Some are scalpers - for which multi-entry levels is not appropriate (though Multi-Profit-Take is valid, even essential).The same applies to Wobble traders or Squeeze traders.

Some prefer to have tight stops and re-enter after a Stop-Out if value is still on their side. This can work well, or it can be bloody minded persistence which is doomed to ultimate failure.

And then some (inexperienced) are just so arrogant that they can perfect their entries and exits such as not to need the advantages of an Institutional trading style approach.

Quoting MLeslie
..... At this high % return do you make millions per year? Or plan to?


Neither of those, I am 67yrs old, love to trade (more than to go away on holiday)and I don't have expensive habits/lifestyle. Also I have been around long enough to know that ultimately my money is at risk wherever I put it - even with a Bank (once beyond the Investors compensation scheme limits). Well Brokers are not even close to being as safe as banks, so I never intend to have a huge trading account. Instead like 'Mr Carlsberg' I will divert excess profits into diverse other investments.

I will post a document in here about Institutional style trade/money management. First I will complete writing the uncensored version for my Self Help Group, then I will take out all the specifics I got from Ray and produce a more generalised one to post in public.
  • #633
  • Jun 24, 2018 10:20am Jun 24, 2018 10:20am
Quoting MLeslie
..... At this high % return do you make millions per year? Or plan to?


It isn't possible to trade the News and the Crude Oil Inventories the way I do now, using the admittedly high levels of risk (approx 5%) that I currently use when your account grows too large - there isn't the Liquidity that I would need in those markets at such volatile times. Thus if I continue to trade them in the same way, then eventually (soon I hope) I will have to reduce the % of my account used for my entries.

The Institutions don't only trade very small %risk because they are cautious, they also do that because they can't get the bigger size on in a trade at a price that makes sense.
  • #634
  • Jun 24, 2018 11:39am Jun 24, 2018 11:39am
My public version of my doc on Institutional Style Trade Management for Retail Traders. I hope I have got all the numbers right, but the main thing is the concepts. :-

Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Institutional Style Trade Management for retail traders-Public-Version.doc   34 KB | 425 downloads
  • #635
  • Jun 24, 2018 1:12pm Jun 24, 2018 1:12pm
No doubt some people have seen my recent conversations with MLeslie and think I am talking B*S* about risk.

If so you have been badly misinformed and you should get some knowledge of probability and odds from an accademic source - not from some retail trading guru who just parrots the same crap that he was told by some other guy who knew F*A* about it and probably neither of them had a university Degree in Maths or Statistics.

Some crazy 'educators' say that to be a successful trader you must only take trades with a Reward to Risk of 1:1 or even of 3:1 or more!
The fact is that you cannot know how big a profit or loss you made on a trade AFTER the trade has completed!

A trade with a Stop Loss of 10 pips and a Profit Target of 30 pips is not a R:R of 3:1. The clue is in the word 'Target', your Stop Loss may be fixed in concrete, but you profit certainly isn't!
A target is something that people often miss and in the case of trading the Market will do what the Market will do regardless of whether YOU have a 10pip or a 100pip Target.

two things matter, one is 'Expectancy' this is the average P/L made on a particular trade type under particular conditions for each $1 invested. So that is the total money made minus the total money lost all divided by the number of trades in the sample.

And the only way you can have a number for it is by somebody testing that particular trade many times. So I can come up with expectancy figures for some of my trade types because I have been doing them the same way for long enough to have sufficient records.

The other thing that matters is the %win rate, which can be used to feed into a formula in order to calculate the probability of a certain number of consecutive losing trades.

Only when you are armed with that information can you pontificate about what the correct level of risk is for a certain trade under those same conditions!

Question: Which trade would you rather take and with what risk?
1. Win rate of 20% and Expectancy of 6.0
or 2. Win Rate of 65% and expectancy of 0.5
If you can't answer that, then you don't have the Maths or the knowledge to be trading yet.

P.S. It is a trick question because they are both profitable, since both have a +ve expectancy. The difference is in the size of drawdown you will get in trading them.

Ray says give him a trade setup with a 95% win rate and an expectancy of 0.1 and he will trade it all day long! Yet a guru might say that is a rubbish trade because the risk is 10 times the average profit. But the point is that out of every 100 x $1 trades it makes $10 and the most it is likely to drawdown during that time is based upon 10 sequences each of 100 trades is $3.
  • #636
  • Jun 24, 2018 2:05pm Jun 24, 2018 2:05pm
Quoting ianf0ster
My public version of my doc on Institutional Style Trade Management for Retail Traders. I hope I have got all the numbers right, but the main thing is the concepts. :- {file}
Can u explain this?

D). If it goes all the way to the measured move 200 level then you make either
i. 10+37+74 (= 121)pips or 1.2% on a MAX RISK of 1%
ii. 10+37+74 plus 2x15 +2x42 + 2x79 ( = 272+121 = 393) pips or 3.9% on a MAX RISK of 1%
iii. 121 + 272 + 4x20 + 4x47 + 4x84 (= 393 +604 = 997) or 9.9% on a MAX RISK of 1%
  • #637
  • Jun 24, 2018 3:47pm Jun 24, 2018 3:47pm
Quoting juangecko
{quote} Can u explain this? D). If it goes all the way to the measured move 200 level then you make either i. 10+37+74 (= 121)pips or 1.2% on a MAX RISK of 1% ii. 10+37+74 plus 2x15 +2x42 + 2x79 ( = 272+121 = 393) pips or 3.9% on a MAX RISK of 1% iii. 121 + 272 + 4x20 + 4x47 + 4x84 (= 393 +604 = 997) or 9.9% on a MAX RISK of 1%

You don't say which figures it is that you think are wrong.
So i will assume that you just want to know that :
Case i. is where price doesn't move 5 pips beyond our initial entry (towards our Stop Loss), so does not trigger the 2nd level units entry. Thus we only have 3 units i the trade, one which is exited for +10 pips, the second for 37 pips and the third for 74 pips.

In case ii. we reached the price for the 2nd entry units level, but not the 3rd, meaning price went at least 5 pips against our initial entry, but less than 10 pis. Thus we have a total of 9 units to manage 3 entered at 0 (pips from initial entry) and 6 entered at -5 (pips from initial entry).
So using the same exit levels for both set of units, we exit 3 units at a price of +10 (pips from initial entry), but since 2 of those units were entered at a price of -5, the profit we make on them is +10 plus 2x15 = +40 pips in total. Similarly for the other 2 exit levels.
  • #638
  • Jun 24, 2018 3:54pm Jun 24, 2018 3:54pm
After I posted my 'How I trade' document for the members of my Self Help Group I had the following question from a member:

******************************************************************************************************************
Reading your posted 'How I trade' doc... If you don't trade with SC (Sierra Chart), then, with what Platform and Broker do you execute your trading, please? If May I ask, of course!
******************************************************************************************************************

This brings up an interesting point about does you charting platform have to be connected to the same Broker as your Trading Platform? - if indeed you don't both chart and trade from the same platform.

My Reply:-
******************************************************************************************************************
I show my Broker's platform in that document on the screenshot for Screen -1. It is Corespreads (the Broker whose charts Ray shows for the DAX30-FTSE spread and sometimes for the Brent-WTI spread. Although he isn't allowed to have a personal account, so that is not an endorsement of them.
One hang-up many traders have is that they think that they need to chart with charts from their own Broker. This is definitely NOT true for Futures accounts , and so long as you are not just scalping for 1pip or 2, then it doesn't really apply to the SpotFX and CFDs either. These days all the decent Brokers quote Bid prices that are very similar and so they only vary much between Brokers during News or such when the variable spread Brokers increase their spreads by lifting the Offer.
Since I trade News a lot, I use a fixed spread Broker since this is one less thing to have to take into account.
****************************************************************************************************************
  • #639
  • Jun 25, 2018 12:20am Jun 25, 2018 12:20am
Another point that crops up again and again amongst retail traders, even quite experienced ones.
I got a comment from one of the Ray's Students Self Help group about my 'Institutional Style Trade Management for Retail Traders' doc:-

************************************************************************************************
Quote from your Institutional doc... "Thus the retail task of us getting the perfect entry is a gamble." That's very very incomplete statement. It's not just the 'entry' but also the exit and any dummy fixed amount of Stop Loss! For God's Sake, the Big Institutions have spent hundred of millions with software and hardware just to squeeze all our retailers accounts, and we r pretending that with a educated guess we will going to compete! really?
************************************************************************************************

My Reply:
************************************************************************************************
You have one point correct and one point wrong there. You are correct that my statement just focusing on the entry is incomplete however Ray shows us that the final exit is usually a Measured Move - so we can have a decent idea where institutional traders will make their main distributions and even when, since they need liquidity.
However you are wrong when you say that the Institutions have spent hundreds of millions to squeeze our retail account. They are not after us primarily even as a group. Our Stop Losses alone won't feed their hunger for Liquidity, so they are really competing for the Liquidity of other (smaller and dumber) institutions.
************************************************************************************************
  • #640
  • Jun 25, 2018 12:27am Jun 25, 2018 12:27am
Quoting ianf0ster
{quote} You don't say which figures it is that you think are wrong. So i will assume that you just want to know that : Case i. is where price doesn't move 5 pips beyond our initial entry (towards our Stop Loss), so does not trigger the 2nd level units entry. Thus we only have 3 units i the trade, one which is exited for +10 pips, the second for 37 pips and the third for 74 pips. In case ii. we reached the price for the 2nd entry units level, but not the 3rd, meaning price went at least 5 pips against our initial entry, but less than 10 pis. Thus...

THANKS!
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