Masterrmind, just to add, the way i look at it now, I do not have to fall in love with a trend because even in a strong trend they will always be re-test's, but i do accept that they are better minor octaves levels to trade than others, hence if i get a day and we break away from a nice octave with a fair amount of daily range left and some room to the more troublesome octaves i will have ago at a bigger R/R
- #722
- Jun 6, 2018 7:06am Jun 6, 2018 7:06am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
Masterrmind, just to add, the way i look at it now, I do not have to fall in love with a trend because even in a strong trend they will always be re-test's, but i do accept that they are better minor octaves levels to trade than others, hence if i get a day and we break away from a nice octave with a fair amount of daily range left and some room to the more troublesome octaves i will have ago at a bigger R/R
I see nothing wrong with that approach.
If you look at this monthly GU chart which I know you have been, a trader needs to look at it very carefully.
The MML octives are the gateway to the mind of the market !
Deciphering the markets intent either 'now', 'tomorrow', or 'next week' is no easy task.
ps. Note that I have intentionally left the MML octives off this monthly chart (if nothing jumps out then drop down a few TF's and reassess).
pps. If the TF is outside a typical trade setup then drop down to a more suitable and more manageable TF, the monthly is a monster !
Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #723
- Jun 6, 2018 7:27am Jun 6, 2018 7:27am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
{quote} A very sound logical plan. I see nothing wrong with that approach. If you look at this monthly GU chart which I know you have been, a trader needs to look at it very carefully. {image} The MML octives are the gateway to the mind of the market ! Deciphering the markets intent either 'now', 'tomorrow', or 'next week' is no easy task. ps. Note that I have intentionally left the MML octives off this monthly chart (if nothing jumps out then drop down a few TF's and reassess). pps. If the TF is outside a typical trade setup then drop down to a...
Areas of future potential interest !
Applying the MML octives and finding out what these levels are will probably amaze.
ps. still plenty of information left in that monster of a monthly chart, not even scratched the surface yet...and then we can start on lower TF's.
Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #725
- Jun 7, 2018 12:59am Jun 7, 2018 12:59am
- Joined Oct 2017 | Status: Trader | 12,472 Posts
{quote} GU [Monthly] {image} Areas of future potential interest ! Applying the MML octives and finding out what these levels are will probably amaze. ps. still plenty of information left in that monster of a monthly chart, not even scratched the surface yet...and then we can start on lower TF's. Masterrmind............
GBPUSD obviously fluctuates between 2.15 and 1.15
which means Octave = (2.15- 1.15) = 1/8 = 0,125 and subharmonics 0.0625 / 0.03125 / 0.015625 etc
- #726
- Jun 14, 2018 6:09am Jun 14, 2018 6:09am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
{quote} Masterrmind GBPUSD obviously fluctuates between 2.15 and 1.15 which means Octave = (2.15- 1.15) = 1/8 = 0,125 and subharmonics 0.0625 / 0.03125 / 0.015625 etc {image}
The idea should be to work your way down in the octaves starting from a HTF until a more suitable trading range is found and this must also include a preferred octive based on the trading setup.
No point having a 244 pip octive on a H1 chart if you plan to be out of the trade on the same day.
Using the GBPUSD pair as an example, it is an interesting exercise to apply the MML Indicator (default P=64) on a monthly chart and simply continue to drive lower into smaller octaves.
You can simply observe in which half of the MML Grid price is currently and then reduce to say a 0/8 to 4/8 (half range) which now becomes the new 0/8 to 8/8.
Eventually a lower TF (perhaps a D1 TF) may be needed but this is based on trader preferences which involve a preferred octive gap in which to trade.
Very few traders (if any) open trades from a monthly chart !
The octive gap halves ofcourse as you continue.
After several iterations the PA will start to protrude from either the upper or lower MML extremes.
If PA is a key consideration in your MML trading method then it makes sense to include as much of the PA within an active MML Grid as possible.
To do this you may need to re-align the MML Grid and draw your attention to the most recent swing highs or swing lows.
This then has Gann written all over it and one can then ask the question:
"Why not simply choose a reasonable and realistic trading range for the 0/8 to 8/8 MML Grid and trade within this zone such that most of the PA is captured within the Grid ?".
There are many ways to do this by the way and perhaps several not yet even explored !
ps. if you cannot follow my worded format let me know and I'll post a series of annotated charts that highlight the process.
Good trading,
Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #728
- Jun 14, 2018 8:06am Jun 14, 2018 8:06am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
Only ended up watching like a rabbit in the headlights today, Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrr Murrey 128 & 32 as usual {image} {image}
Never easy to trade these risky ones.
Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #729
- Jun 19, 2018 7:03am Jun 19, 2018 7:03am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
AUDNZD
Loss trade
-0.6%
Masterrmind............
Loss trade
-0.6%
Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #730
- Jun 19, 2018 7:15am Jun 19, 2018 7:15am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
Three pending orders remain at this stage with no currently active positions. {image} If I decide to close out the 3 pending orders the current H1 TS Order 3 cycle will be net negative. Being net negative means the next TS Order 3 will be traded with a Risk per Trade of 0.2% (0.6% -0.4%). So I'm simply buying some time at the moment with leaving the 3 pending orders in place. If price continues to look unlikely to trigger any of the 3 orders over the next few days then they will be deleted out in readiness for the next TS. ps. Although the GBPAUD...
Price came within about 50 pips (approx) of the lower TP level and then shot off to the upside.
So the early closure in this case proved to be the right decision.
Masterrmind.........
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #731
- Jun 19, 2018 7:34am Jun 19, 2018 7:34am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
H1 - MTTTM TS Order 3 - Update
1 position active : EURCAD
1 pending order : GBPUSD (unlikely to trigger as price is currently many over 500 pips from triggering the order).
Certainly at this stage its looking very much like the EURCAD short will be the last trade in this initial H1 TS Order 3 setup.
Once it closes out one way or the other the next H1 TS Order 3 setup will be traded.
Masterrmind.............
1 position active : EURCAD
1 pending order : GBPUSD (unlikely to trigger as price is currently many over 500 pips from triggering the order).
Certainly at this stage its looking very much like the EURCAD short will be the last trade in this initial H1 TS Order 3 setup.
Once it closes out one way or the other the next H1 TS Order 3 setup will be traded.
Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #732
- Jun 22, 2018 5:38am Jun 22, 2018 5:38am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
EURCAD
Loss trade
-0.6%
Masterrmind.............
Loss trade
-0.6%
Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #733
- Jun 22, 2018 5:43am Jun 22, 2018 5:43am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
The final pending order (GBPUSD) has now been deleted as its trigger level is far from current price.
A summary of this first H1 TS Order 3 will be posted very soon.
Masterrmind.............
A summary of this first H1 TS Order 3 will be posted very soon.
Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #734
- Jun 22, 2018 6:09am Jun 22, 2018 6:09am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
Summary of H1:TS Order 3-#3-S1 (the 1st setup)
TS Order 3-#3-S1
TS1: CADJPY + EURCAD = EURJPY
TS2: AUDNZD + GBPAUD = GBPNZD
TS3: GBPCAD + GBPUSD = USDCAD
8 trades opened
1 pending order [GBPUSD] did not trigger.
Total setup risk was 5.4% (0.6% risk per trade over a possible 9 entries) .
8 trades from 9 triggered so actual risk was less than maximum.
1 winner @ 1.6% (partial TP).
7 losers @ -0.6%, -0.6%, -0.6%, -0.6%, -0.5%, -0.6% and -0.6%.
Net Cycle (Gain/Loss) = (1.6)% - (0.6 + 0.6 + 0.6 + 0.6 + 0.5 + 0.6 +0.6)% = 1.6% - 4.1% = -2.5% (approx).
A net losing cycle of US$ 274.25 causes the account balance to decrease which now stands at $11 046.06
+10.5% gain on the account.
Masterrmind............
TS Order 3-#3-S1
TS1: CADJPY + EURCAD = EURJPY
TS2: AUDNZD + GBPAUD = GBPNZD
TS3: GBPCAD + GBPUSD = USDCAD
8 trades opened
1 pending order [GBPUSD] did not trigger.
Total setup risk was 5.4% (0.6% risk per trade over a possible 9 entries) .
8 trades from 9 triggered so actual risk was less than maximum.
1 winner @ 1.6% (partial TP).
7 losers @ -0.6%, -0.6%, -0.6%, -0.6%, -0.5%, -0.6% and -0.6%.
Net Cycle (Gain/Loss) = (1.6)% - (0.6 + 0.6 + 0.6 + 0.6 + 0.5 + 0.6 +0.6)% = 1.6% - 4.1% = -2.5% (approx).
A net losing cycle of US$ 274.25 causes the account balance to decrease which now stands at $11 046.06
+10.5% gain on the account.
Masterrmind............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #735
- Jun 22, 2018 6:19am Jun 22, 2018 6:19am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
The next H1 TS Order 3 will be traded from next week.
Risk per Trade = 0.2% (since previous cycle was a net loss; 0.6% - 0.4% = 0.2%)
SL = 1.5*Octive Gap
RRR = 4 to 1
Updated entry condition:
At market entries will be applied where possible instead of pending orders at MML levels when current price is midway between 2 MML levels.
This change is in the interest of speeding up the completion rate of H1 cycles.
Other changes if made will be outlined in advance of the fact wherever possible.
Masterrmind...............
Risk per Trade = 0.2% (since previous cycle was a net loss; 0.6% - 0.4% = 0.2%)
SL = 1.5*Octive Gap
RRR = 4 to 1
Updated entry condition:
At market entries will be applied where possible instead of pending orders at MML levels when current price is midway between 2 MML levels.
This change is in the interest of speeding up the completion rate of H1 cycles.
Other changes if made will be outlined in advance of the fact wherever possible.
Masterrmind...............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #736
- Jun 22, 2018 7:23am Jun 22, 2018 7:23am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
MTTTM System Commentary.
FXBlue Analytics:
myfxbook summary:
So far 135 trades have been completed with a strike rate of about 29% and a DD of about 21% for a net gain of close to +10.5% over 6 months.
75 lots have been traded for about a 1K profit !
On a live account this outcome would only be making the broker richer and certainly NOT the trader.
Average win to average loss ratio is very respectable, so too the Profit Factor (1.09) and so it should be with a fixed 4 to 1 RRR.
AHPR sits at 0.09% which suggests that a win will yield about a 0.09% gain on average, only problem is that there are not enough winners at present if one considers a 29% win rate.
Sharp ratio at 0.04 is horrendous !
Any valuable clues in the following sea of red !
I can say one thing about account progress so far and that is this:
The method is not producing realistic results that could currently be traded on a real account.
Sure a 10% gain in Equity (if it was live) is fine over a 6 month term with some decent invested capital but at what risk !
So what improvements can be made that are likely to produce better results ? Any ideas traders ?
How about this chart !
The next TS Order 3 to be traded from early next week will use all of the data to this point to produce the next list of pairs to be traded.
If any trader has some comments please post away and lets analyze it in detail.
Masterrmind.............
FXBlue Analytics:
myfxbook summary:
So far 135 trades have been completed with a strike rate of about 29% and a DD of about 21% for a net gain of close to +10.5% over 6 months.
75 lots have been traded for about a 1K profit !
On a live account this outcome would only be making the broker richer and certainly NOT the trader.
Average win to average loss ratio is very respectable, so too the Profit Factor (1.09) and so it should be with a fixed 4 to 1 RRR.
AHPR sits at 0.09% which suggests that a win will yield about a 0.09% gain on average, only problem is that there are not enough winners at present if one considers a 29% win rate.
Sharp ratio at 0.04 is horrendous !
Any valuable clues in the following sea of red !
I can say one thing about account progress so far and that is this:
The method is not producing realistic results that could currently be traded on a real account.
Sure a 10% gain in Equity (if it was live) is fine over a 6 month term with some decent invested capital but at what risk !
So what improvements can be made that are likely to produce better results ? Any ideas traders ?
How about this chart !
The next TS Order 3 to be traded from early next week will use all of the data to this point to produce the next list of pairs to be traded.
If any trader has some comments please post away and lets analyze it in detail.
Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #738
- Jun 24, 2018 7:19pm Jun 24, 2018 7:19pm
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
Masterrmind I have used another grid type just to demonstrate my thought on a fixed grid and just watching price move through, what would be each Octave {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
What I've done previously is to draw in representative longer term S&R zones and key trendlines and then apply analysis on lower TF's and smaller octive gaps.
Then as price nears these confluent zones attempt to align all the technicals and try to include any fundamental bias that also aligns in the same direction be it long or short the market.
The drawback to this approach is that once you have chosen a direction the trade direction is fixed for the duration of its life.
It ends only when the stop gets taken out, TP gets hit or it gets closed out.
On higher TF setups the initial choice of direction can be soon found to be incorrect as market information and news and noise alters the trajectory of price.
As part of the automated strategy testing phase I'm currently going through I'll be examining this type of approach over a sufficiently long enough period of data (several years worth) on single up to multiple symbols.
One potential area of concern is that the EA will simply trade in the direction initially input into the EA settings be it long or short.
Ofcourse multiple cycles will be traded over a long enough testing period but every symbols initial input direction will remain in force for the duration of the test which means if I chose long EURUSD in the EA tester settings then every cycle started will have EU long the market and this is a limitation.
The limitation will therefore need to be analyzed and then addressed and it certainly will be.
This biased symbol direction (in automated format) might need greater flexibility:
1. Allow the EA to decide on Symbol direction via algo design rules;
2. Allow the EA to learn from its short comings and losses using a neural network approach and MATLAB Engine;
3. Allow several algos the flexibility to work together and design its own unique choice of trades in a multiple symbol setup.
A current cycle would play out with the initial choice of symbol direction (User defined or EA defined).
Subsequent cycle(s) would be determined based on the rules of several algos with feedback from the MATLAB analysis engine.
Apologies for the technical lingo here but the good news is that the system can be traded manually and automatically (or semi-auto) and each approach can benefit from eachother.
Learnings gained form the manual approach can be applied to the auto approach and vice-versa.
This is certainly turning into an interesting project!
Masterrmind..............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades
- #739
- Edited 11:33pm Jun 24, 2018 10:12pm | Edited 11:33pm
- Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Trader | 5,146 Posts
- #740
- Jun 25, 2018 12:13am Jun 25, 2018 12:13am
- Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Master chaos and you master trading | 11,287 Posts
{quote} Just a thought, maybe a Renko style reversal or just view a 50% move inside the next Octave as acceptance or rejection ? {image}
With the application of renko I'm assuming that you are disregarding any fundamental inputs and applying a pure manual and technical approach.
Masterrmind.............
Master your Mind then Master your Trades