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The Killing Floor

  • #61
  • Jun 21, 2018 12:55pm Jun 21, 2018 12:55pm
Quoting Sis.yphus
{quote} Lol sometimes I question why I share so much... I always just think I wish someone shared it with me as none of this stuff is that complex, or maybe I just feel that way now that I really understand it. I also like to share because most people don't actually read any of it anyways or put it into practice. I agree and disagree with you regarding stats being manipulated. Certain stats can be manipulated, but the ones that can don't pay the bills and in most cases, manipulate them will ensure you can't pay the bills. The money you pull out...
My manipulation, I mean if an investor wants a good profit factor or a good win/loss rate or a good average win/loss etc etc, a strategy can be developed to focus purely on those stats...some but obviously not all.

I want to comment on spread and trading costs. Forget about RM, MM, SL, TP etc for a minute and only focus on entry, exit and recovery of "trading costs". If risk is trading cost, recovery of trading cost is reward, just a simply strategy of 1:1 to recover costs plus a tiny bit of profit is sufficient. I do this without any regard to spread via ecn commission broker by considering a trade to not be in profit without a trading cost multiple of more than 1. I find measuring performancec as a multiple of trading costs to be the most consistent way instead of pips or dollar amounts or even %. Of course all this requires a honest broker which is just not available to us retailers lol
Staying in my lane...
  • #62
  • Jun 21, 2018 12:58pm Jun 21, 2018 12:58pm
Quoting Sis.yphus
{quote} Lol sometimes I question why I share so much... I always just think I wish someone shared it with me as none of this stuff is that complex, or maybe I just feel that way now that I really understand it. I also like to share because most people don't actually read any of it anyways or put it into practice. I agree and disagree with you regarding stats being manipulated. Certain stats can be manipulated, but the ones that can don't pay the bills and in most cases, manipulate them will ensure you can't pay the bills. The money you pull out...
And I think you are saying... There is no edge in a setup. alone....Edge results in the "execution" of the setup or entry given the other parameters that affect positive expectancy
Am I correct?
Staying in my lane...
  • #63
  • Jun 21, 2018 1:22pm Jun 21, 2018 1:22pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} My manipulation, I mean if an investor wants a good profit factor or a good win/loss rate or a good average win/loss etc etc, a strategy can be developed to focus purely on those stats...some but obviously not all. I want to comment on spread and trading costs. Forget about RM, MM, SL, TP etc for a minute and only focus on entry, exit and recovery of "trading costs". If risk is trading cost, recovery of trading cost is reward, just a simply strategy of 1:1 to recover costs plus a tiny bit of profit is sufficient. I do this without any regard...
O yeah I know what you mean, you can definitely do that, but anyone worth their weight in salt when it comes looking at data would quickly realize what is happening.

That is an interesting way to look at it. One could argue that at any time, their true risk is actually just the trading cost so it would make sense to use it as a base risk measure. Like you said though, brokers for retail are brutal to work with.

Quoting VEEFX
{quote} And I think you are saying... There is no edge in a setup. alone....Edge results in the "execution" of the setup or entry given the other parameters that affect positive expectancy Am I correct?
Basically, if you mean setup just being the r:r you choose.

Edge is gained upon entry, and then you can increase it or decrease it with good and bad money management
  • #64
  • Jun 21, 2018 2:17pm Jun 21, 2018 2:17pm
Quoting Sis.yphus
{quote} O yeah I know what you mean, you can definitely do that, but anyone worth their weight in salt when it comes looking at data would quickly realize what is happening. That is an interesting way to look at it. One could argue that at any time, their true risk is actually just the trading cost so it would make sense to use it as a base risk measure. Like you said though, brokers for retail are brutal to work with. {quote} Basically, if you mean setup just being the r:r you choose. Edge is gained upon entry, and then you can increase it or decrease...
Perhaps a little more on edge since you are a "facts and data" guy like me.

You say edge is in the entry.
I say, there is no edge in the entry "setup" (of price over time)... either on a two-dimensional chart or price vs time data stream. By this I mean, I am a subscriber of "Efficient Market Hypothesis". whatever edge that might exists in the price feed is only limited to it's discovery with no long term consistent positive expectancy derived from it.

What I am saying is... edge results in the application of a setup with a stated statistical probability. It's odds can be increased based on devising a strategy and executing that strategy using whatever RM, MM parameters of choice
What I am saying is.... even if you don't know or have an edge in entry, positive expectancy can be derived with a robust strategy... and here, I am not referring to random entries.
What I am also saying is.... such a robust strategy will only work fabulously during fat/heavy tailed distributions which is where most money is made. If you agree with this point then it also means, we MUST gain as much as, as fast as we can, during favorable market conditions.... and "slow" the loses when market is just churning and going nowhere. I think "trade frequency" is a very important factor in performance measurement which many ignore imo.
Staying in my lane...
  • #65
  • Jun 21, 2018 3:51pm Jun 21, 2018 3:51pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Perhaps a little more on edge since you are a "facts and data" guy like me. You say edge is in the entry. I say, there is no edge in the entry "setup" (of price over time)... either on a two-dimensional chart or price vs time data stream. By this I mean, I am a subscriber of "Efficient Market Hypothesis". whatever edge that might exists in the price feed is only limited to it's discovery with no long term consistent positive expectancy derived from it. What I am saying is... edge results in the application of a setup with a stated statistical...

When I say edge I mean the probability of the outcome being more than it should be if it were random. So with the 4 pip tp and 36 sl, my edge is my win rate percentage based on the BE percentage of the r:r setup.

So if I win 93.5% of the time and my spread cost is 2%, I have a 1.5% edge.

Regarding EHM, the market is efficient in only one dimension if that makes sense. mzvega has some really good posts on this.

In regards to gaining an edge purely for a risk model, I know it works with certain parameters, but they are usually unattainable and if they are, the return is extremely small relative to the equity, like microscopic. This is just in my experience though, if someone wants to point me to a paper showing the opposite to be true, I would love it. Unfortunately, I have never met a soul who could point me to that paper or study.

I also have not been clever enough to come up with my own models that would do something like that. I saw a Monty Hall model one time on here that looked pretty interesting but never figured out what exactly was going on.
  • #66
  • Jun 21, 2018 8:00pm Jun 21, 2018 8:00pm
Quoting Sis.yphus
{quote} When I say edge I mean the probability of the outcome being more than it should be if it were random. So with the 4 pip tp and 36 sl, my edge is my win rate percentage based on the BE percentage of the r:r setup. So if I win 93.5% of the time and my spread cost is 2%, I have a 1.5% edge. Regarding EHM, the market is efficient in only one dimension if that makes sense. mzvega has some really good posts on this. In regards to gaining an edge purely for a risk model, I know it works with certain parameters, but they are usually unattainable...
Thanks for all your responses. I believe we are aligned. I will only believe in someone having an "edge" if they can show solid consistent performance of 2-3+ yrs. There are simply not that many out there in the retail spot FX space who can make this claim and those who really are (couple I know of) are based on the trader themselves and not the specific strategy they use. That is what makes me a non-believer of "price action". I have done immense studies on stop placements and margin calls and account behaviour when position size is increased or when you take bigger risk or when you use small TP orders or when you try to trap the market or follow the market etc etc and I simply could not find any so called consistency in "edge performance". Every attempt simply resulted in "makret is favorable now and about" and "decay is just around the corner". Decay seems to be the inevitable factor consistent in all my findings. That coupled with all the manipulation techniques I knew of and ones that our friend FractalFreak is showing simply makes me re-affirm the fact why so many lose in the retail spot FX space.
There is tremendous amount of intelligence to be found here and still have yet to find success also reiterates my conclusion that retail fx trading is just a waste of time. We have to move towards centralized markets and play in the real supply/demand market.

Would you agree with my findings and conclusion? I know this is heavy and loaded :-)
Staying in my lane...
  • #67
  • Jun 21, 2018 9:05pm Jun 21, 2018 9:05pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Every attempt simply resulted in "makret is favorable now and about" and "decay is just around the corner". Decay seems to be the inevitable factor consistent in all my findings.
Yes, this is the case, and unfortunately, it's true for all things in life. 99.9% of all species go extinct. BUT life is still abundant and all around us. Everywhere.

Quoting VEEFX
{quote} There is tremendous amount of intelligence to be found here and still have yet to find success also reiterates my conclusion that retail fx trading is just a waste of time. We have to move towards centralized markets and play in the real supply/demand market.
I wouldn't say its a waste of time, maybe if you don't learn anything. What do you mean centralized markets? Why not trade futures on CME?
  • #68
  • Jun 21, 2018 9:55pm Jun 21, 2018 9:55pm
Quoting Sis.yphus
{quote} Yes, this is the case, and unfortunately, it's true for all things in life. 99.9% of all species go extinct. BUT life is still abundant and all around us. Everywhere. {quote} I wouldn't say its a waste of time, maybe if you don't learn anything. What do you mean centralized markets? Why not trade futures on CME?
Yes ...futures is what I mean i.e. regulated/centralized.

Agree...knowledge is never a waste but at the end, we are in this to make money...not just here and there but consistently for the long run :-)
Staying in my lane...
  • #69
  • Jun 21, 2018 10:34pm Jun 21, 2018 10:34pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Yes ...futures is what I mean i.e. regulated/centralized. Agree...knowledge is never a waste but at the end, we are in this to make money...not just here and there but consistently for the long run :-)

F.Y.I since you like reading CP comments
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=233214
  • #70
  • Jun 21, 2018 10:45pm Jun 21, 2018 10:45pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Yes ...futures is what I mean i.e. regulated/centralized. Agree...knowledge is never a waste but at the end, we are in this to make money...not just here and there but consistently for the long run :-)
Money is definitely the motive.

Just exploring this idea of centralization, do you really think that if you move to the futures market and trade EU mini contracts, the behavior of price would be any different than what you see at the spot broker? Would it be so significantly different that you could make money on one chart but not the other?
  • #71
  • Jun 22, 2018 2:13am Jun 22, 2018 2:13am
Quoting CARP.BLUFFS
{quote} F.Y.I since you like reading CP comments https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=233214
Thanks. I am too tired but I am glad you directed me to that extracted post. I had not read it and the similarities of my journey with what CP wrote years ago makes me feel a little bit better :-)

Now we all need to Google the significance of Number 7 lol
Staying in my lane...
  • #72
  • Jun 22, 2018 2:23am Jun 22, 2018 2:23am
Quoting Sis.yphus
{quote} Money is definitely the motive. Just exploring this idea of centralization, do you really think that if you move to the futures market and trade EU mini contracts, the behavior of price would be any different than what you see at the spot broker? Would it be so significantly different that you could make money on one chart but not the other?
No difference in relation to just the price feed but I can gaurantee this with 1000% certainly. A fully automated strategy on EU mini futures will yield different outcome compared to trading Eurusd in MT4 with a spot FX broker (especially with a non-US broker) and/or vice versa.

I will quit trading for good if anyone proves me wrong!

Edit: duration of strategy comparison must be at least 3 yrs
Staying in my lane...
  • #73
  • Jun 22, 2018 3:06am Jun 22, 2018 3:06am
I've got this indicator. You can see high and low of current trend. But history dont work.

Unfortunately i dont have the mq4 files.


Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Ind - Extra Reports20.ex4   452 KB | 511 downloads
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #74
  • Jun 22, 2018 3:37am Jun 22, 2018 3:37am
actually, the real and the NOW point we will always have only 50% probability the price either higher or down. and all zone is killing zone.
look forward first and we will only have a blank (50%:50% probability up or down), after that look to the past. by this approach we can exploit the past history as an edge.
but if we first look to the past to search an edge, we will forgotten that the fact ahead we only have 50:50 probability in every tick, in every minute NOW.
thats why for me I do not predict I just only ride.
and yes agree this forex is killing zone, the pure market battlefield.
we don't predict, we only ride
  • #75
  • Jun 22, 2018 3:40am Jun 22, 2018 3:40am
It's interesting idea. I am testing this now. I have never done analysis with MFE/MAE.
Quick test results showed me, that when you are cutting lossers, your lossers are smaller in pips. But you are cutting your winners too, some winners are now loosers, so you'll have less winners and at the end the result is the same.
My entry is H1 open price, always buy(or sell), probability 50:50, ther is no edge in entry.
I have other ideas to test with this type analysis, but I think the result will be the same, if there is no edge in entry.
  • #76
  • Jun 22, 2018 5:20am Jun 22, 2018 5:20am
Quoting Sis.yphus
3C-200-50-10: Price Closes Above 200, 50, & 10 MA & All 3 Slopes are Up
Hi!

Thanks for sharing the interesting concept and point of view!
Sorry for the very noob question. Are you opening trade only by candle crossing the MA-s or looking a new trade for every (of course not every) candle closing above the MA?

With regards,
SP
  • #77
  • Jun 22, 2018 6:07am Jun 22, 2018 6:07am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Yes ...futures is what I mean i.e. regulated/centralized. Agree...knowledge is never a waste but at the end, we are in this to make money...not just here and there but consistently for the long run :-)
Hi VEEFX,

I have traded futures for many years, but the fact that it is a centralized market does not prevent manipulations.

To give you an example, the dark pool can use hidden orders, and some volumes appear only 24 hours later on board of the CME.

Even if your "friend" FractalFreak have reason on many points, all the forex movement is not only manipulations, just as for the future.

Banks need to do a lot of trading for their big customers, for example changing 400 billion dolar into YEN for an export company.
They go through the forex, and have a range of possibilities for the bank to get the best price for this type of transaction.

There is certainly a lot of manipulation, but it is not 100% always the case ...

By the way, I trade the futures market with my own algorithm (almost like an HFT) and I don't care of manipulation most of the time, not always ^^
  • #78
  • Jun 22, 2018 8:05am Jun 22, 2018 8:05am
Quoting SuperPip
{quote} Hi! Thanks for sharing the interesting concept and point of view! Sorry for the very noob question. Are you opening trade only by candle crossing the MA-s or looking a new trade for every (of course not every) candle closing above the MA? With regards, SP
Sir,
for god sake,

sysyphus showed us rules, showed us certen number of trades ...
take M5 chart with EURUSD and USDJPY, drew few lines and you have all answers for question you asked

Please...?
  • #79
  • Jun 22, 2018 8:19am Jun 22, 2018 8:19am
Quoting Gregv
{quote} Hi VEEFX, I have traded futures for many years, but the fact that it is a centralized market does not prevent manipulations. To give you an example, the dark pool can use hidden orders, and some volumes appear only 24 hours later on board of the CME. Even if your "friend" FractalFreak have reason on many points, all the forex movement is not only manipulations, just as for the future. Banks need to do a lot of trading for their big customers, for example changing 400 billion dolar into YEN for an export company. They go through the forex,...
Thanks GregV. Perhaps we are diverting from the topic on hand but it is related to the small TP proposed by Sis. Have you tried running your hft algo in spot FX to experience any difference in outcome? My strategy is also relying on trade frequency and as with any algo, we rely on connectivity with the broker's platform. Please read here the games and tools/plugins available to all retail brokers and tell me if these are available to futures brokers also? I am not referring to price or volume or order flow manipulations. I can handle all those with no issues. They can mess with one trade but not all 50-60 of my trades because they know i got 7 gorillas (entry/exit/profit/loss/drawdown/margin/exposure functions) tracking all their sneaky moves lol

And FFreak is NOT my buddy...he is on my ignore list :-)

Edit: also, which instrument is your algo trading in the futures market? Just curious
Staying in my lane...
  • #80
  • Jun 22, 2018 9:06am Jun 22, 2018 9:06am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Thanks GregV. Perhaps we are diverting from the topic on hand but it is related to the small TP proposed by Sis. Have you tried running your hft algo in spot FX to experience any difference in outcome? My strategy is also relying on trade frequency and as with any algo, we rely on connectivity with the broker's platform. Please read here the games and tools/plugins available to all retail brokers and tell me if these are available to futures brokers also? I...
You're welcome.
Regarding your first question, the differences are of course present. I do not want to list in detail the differences here because this is not the subject of the thread
And I do not want to bother those who follow the strategy presented or disrespect the OP.

Some have asked me to open my own thread about futures and my algorithms, but given the way things are going on here, and given the behavior of some, I think there is very little chance I want to do it

There are very few curious members who give themselves the means to do their own research. You are part of these VEEFX members, but how much more
are able to simply understand that one has to go beyond what one believes to start being profitable in trading? can be 3 or 4 other members? on thousands ...

Trying to guide people in this forum would be a waste of time, because either they do not have the necessary background or the necessary means, or they like things that are done and are lazy, or they only like to criticize and unburden their frustration exactly as for the FractalFreak thread.
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