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Diversified Trend Trading Approach

  • #4,021
  • Jun 20, 2018 12:30pm Jun 20, 2018 12:30pm
Why we are liking trend following around these parts....

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Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #4,022
  • Edited 3:59pm Jun 20, 2018 3:35pm | Edited 3:59pm
Quoting Ramadas
Why we are liking trend following around these parts.... {image} {image}
Yep. Sometimes when I ride into town I see those mean reverters sniggering like rattle-snakes at us ol' trend followers.....but then I just sort them out with some straight talkin'.....and a piece of hickory.

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As Ernie says...you can make mean reverting strategies safe....but that is by capping their risk exposure that then takes the shine of their illusory linear equity curves and turns them into volatile ones.....and then reveals why trend following is a preferable tactic for achieving long term sustainable returns.

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Co-integration is stronger than correlation as the reason for variable dependency...but when or if you get it wrong....you pay the ultimate price. I used to spread trade equities thinking that there was co-integration here in Australia between the large blue chip mining companies......oh....how I got that wrong :-(

I think trend following is a philosophy for the aged and wise....when it suddenly dawns on you that perhaps you are not that smart after all....and you capitulate to the market as the only true master......and then your fortunes change after paying lots of tributes to the God of chaos. :-)
  • #4,023
  • Jun 20, 2018 4:19pm Jun 20, 2018 4:19pm
Best to be safe rather than sorry said the tortoise to the hare. Here is a wise way to view the Efficient Market Hypothesis. Efficient most times....but noise can exist around this efficiency.

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  • #4,024
  • Jun 20, 2018 4:36pm Jun 20, 2018 4:36pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Yep. Sometimes when I ride into town I see those mean reverters sniggering like rattle-snakes at us ol' trend followers.....but then I just sort them out with some straight talkin'.....and a piece of hickory. {image} As Ernie says...you can make mean reverting strategies safe....but that is by capping their risk exposure that then takes the shine of their illusory linear equity curves and turns them into volatile ones.....and then reveals why trend following is a preferable tactic for achieving long term sustainable returns. {image} Co-integration...
To quote Confucius, “True wisdom is knowing what you don’t know.”
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #4,025
  • Jun 20, 2018 5:37pm Jun 20, 2018 5:37pm
Yep you look like a crazy idiot if you mention the word "trend".

it's because people don't spend time backtesting... they are "religious gamblers" lol

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  • #4,026
  • Jun 20, 2018 5:44pm Jun 20, 2018 5:44pm
Quoting HeyYou
Yep you look like a crazy idiot if you mention the word "trend". it's because people don't spend time backtesting... they are "religious gamblers" lol {image}
Hehehehehe. Bring out the dead!!!!!!!
  • #4,027
  • Jun 20, 2018 7:05pm Jun 20, 2018 7:05pm
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} Hehehehehe. Bring out the dead!!!!!!!
Lol, there are still some realities here where the DEAD matters
  • #4,028
  • Jun 20, 2018 7:15pm Jun 20, 2018 7:15pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} Lol, there are still some realities here where the DEAD matters

What about YOU? you're alive! be yourself once in a while damnit.

dreams come true when you stop dreaming.... life is the dream!
  • #4,029
  • Jun 20, 2018 7:29pm Jun 20, 2018 7:29pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} What about YOU? you're alive! be yourself once in a while damnit. dreams come true when you stop dreaming.... life is the dream!
It's pretty good just being alive mate and if you look hard enough there is real wonder and beauty in this universe mate without having to dream at all....that's what Walter Mitty was all about.......It is the people in that universe that tend to be the problem....so I focus on the good, kind and creative people that want to look after our universe. You may have noticed :-)

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  • #4,030
  • Edited 10:53pm Jun 20, 2018 10:28pm | Edited 10:53pm
I purchased and read “The Tao of Physics” by Fritjof Capra in 1975. It was one of the most influential books I’ve ever read. I still have it and even though the pages are getting a little worn out, and the cover is a little stained, the ideas inside still seem new and refreshing.

Here’s a video of Fritjof Capra explaining some of the things he wrote about.

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  • #4,031
  • Jun 20, 2018 10:42pm Jun 20, 2018 10:42pm
A more recent work by Capra is called, “The Web of Life”. Here he’s being interviewed about it on the “Thinking Allowed” show.

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  • #4,032
  • Jun 20, 2018 11:29pm Jun 20, 2018 11:29pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
I purchased and read “The Tao of Physics” by Fritjof Capra in 1975. It was one of the most influential books I’ve ever read. I still have it and even though the pages are getting a little worn out, and the cover is a little stained, the ideas inside still seem new and refreshing. Here’s a video of Fritjof Capra explaining some of the things he wrote about. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBJFJVZMnlo
One down. Stunning Pip. A physicist who was ahead of his time....like Bohm, Bohr and Heisenberg.....and then of course you have Alan Watts on the philosophical side of the debate bringing these disparate world views together. Thanks for sharing mate. Now onto the next. :-)
  • #4,033
  • Jun 20, 2018 11:33pm Jun 20, 2018 11:33pm
David Bohm in his examination of 'Thought as a System'. A fantastic series of seminars. I wish I was there.

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  • #4,034
  • Jun 20, 2018 11:48pm Jun 20, 2018 11:48pm
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
I purchased and read “The Tao of Physics” by Fritjof Capra in 1975. It was one of the most influential books I’ve ever read. I still have it and even though the pages are getting a little worn out, and the cover is a little stained, the ideas inside still seem new and refreshing. Here’s a video of Fritjof Capra explaining some of the things he wrote about. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kBJFJVZMnlo

? 34:18 on tape
  • #4,035
  • Jun 21, 2018 12:14am Jun 21, 2018 12:14am
Quoting CARP.BLUFFS
{quote} ? 34:18 on tape
That was an abalone diver from abstract space interfering with Capra's Tao :-)
  • #4,036
  • Jun 21, 2018 12:33am Jun 21, 2018 12:33am
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
A more recent work by Capra is called, “The Web of Life”. Here he’s being interviewed about it on the “Thinking Allowed” show. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pkIPP0oeYac
Luv it Pip , Capra gets added to the list of must reads :-)
  • #4,037
  • Jun 21, 2018 1:08am Jun 21, 2018 1:08am
Quoting CARP.BLUFFS
{quote} ? 34:18 on tape
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lol . . .
  • #4,038
  • Jun 21, 2018 1:12am Jun 21, 2018 1:12am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} One down. Stunning Pip. A physicist who was ahead of his time....like Bohm, Bohr and Heisenberg.....and then of course you have Alan Watts on the philosophical side of the debate bringing these disparate world views together. Thanks for sharing mate. Now onto the next. :-)
Here's an Alan Watts lecture about Maya.

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  • #4,039
  • Jun 21, 2018 2:39am Jun 21, 2018 2:39am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} It's pretty good just being alive mate and if you look hard enough there is real wonder and beauty in this universe mate without having to dream at all.
Precisely what I meant! what we have is enough

yeah some belgian Beer just makes it even better....ahh the beer makes me look a zen master...

If just I could spend all time in nature I would be NATURALLY high, indeed
  • #4,040
  • Jun 21, 2018 3:30am Jun 21, 2018 3:30am
Quoting Pips_Cruiser
{quote} https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVQ8byG2mY8 lol . . .
LOL :-)
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