WaveTrade

Oct 2, 2006<o>
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WaveTrade Signal

<o></o>GBP/USD
Short<o>
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Entry: 8868
Target: 8607
Stop: 9129<o>
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Potential: 261 pips<o>
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R/R: 1 to 1
W/L on pair: 56%<o>
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Gut feeling (which doesn’t factor in to the trade), this pair will go up before it goes down. At 56% win/loss on this type of wavetrade signal, it is not exactly a strong percentage. We will wait and see what happens, for those following, reduce exposure!
<o> </o>

Northpro

Hi,

I'm still holding my long position and still +25 pips. From your prediction it is going to be DT for G/U. I'd really appreciate if you could post a screen shot or something. And maybe the setting of the indicators that you use.

thanks

Oct. 3, 2006

<o></o>There has been some inquiries both on the thread as well as via PM’s regarding the Wavetrade signals and the positions I take. To retrace my own writings throughout the thread, I had started trading a few years ago using many different techniques which included MA cross-overs, slope changes, elliot-wave, supporting entries and exits with RSI, MACD, stochastics, fib’s, etc.. I traded intraday on 5 min, 1 hour, 4 hour, and dailies to try and find the best timeframe for my technique of choice. Over time I was doing OK…win some lose some. The problem I was having was not recognizing up or down trends in the short time frames, but more so position sizing and the fact that I never had any set position goals for any particular trade. My money management was good one day, horrendous the next. I was swayed from my original entry by the market noise, news releases put me on edge every time a release was imminent, long time forum members would voice opinions on which way a pair would trade and would be swayed from my original thoughts…I over traded and in the end I lost more than I won and I still didn’t really know what kind of a trader I was and what style suited me. There was just no consistency. The techniques I mentioned above are all great techniques, that I truly believe work well incorporated within ones trading regime, they just didn’t work well enough for me and for my lifestyle or my trading aptitude. I felt like I was at the roulette table. That’s when I went back to basics and started downloading data…lots of it. I am now a data junkie, it is my fix, more on this in a sec. When creating Wavetrade I noticed the obvious….the charts in their raw form look like waves in the ocean, particularly on the dailies. I then added in some indicators such as MA’s, Stoch’s, momentum, rsi, and Fib’s one at a time. One of the many things I noticed was that two MA’s of different values the majority of the time can only withstand getting so far apart before they retrace towards one another again. In supporting this trend, stochastics, momentum, rsi, etc were added. As I added these I needed to develop a formula to combine all the indicators together that resulted in one numerical value. Each currency pair has its own characteristic so the values are vastly different and are compensated for by neutralizing values, that I created and cannot reveal. Along with some high percentage criteria from back testing, my entry signals were generated. I therefore ignore news and market noise (unless there is a major terrorist event or something of that magnitude), even when I look at a chart and I know it will go the opposite that Wavetrade tells me, in the long run the system is more right than wrong. I therefore can illuminate a lot of the psychological emotion from my trading. This is why I don’t post charts, the charts to me are not what I see, but the data within that matters. I use that data as my fix, it keeps me focused on the numbers and allows me to ignore opinions. Wavetrade is not foolproof by any means and does have losses, sometimes large, sometimes consistently, but continued back testing tells me that it is more accurate than I am. With proper position sizing, discipline, and time, things will progress positively. As I am always working on improving the system, which includes, risk/reward ratio, win/loss %, and exposure, things will change. At present all my positions are multiple lots but I only report actual single pip gain not multiplied gain, just for clarification.

<o></o>Although this is a simplistic overview of the system, I hope this insight into Wavetrade gives some description to my style of trading and the positions I take throughout any given month.

Northpro

Hey Northpro,

I'm in a short on cable right now after seeing some resistance at 8880-8900. Quick question about the target and timeframe. Does this target apply to a certain timeframe (as in an expiration date) and do you have any thoughts about the two interest rate statements coming out tommorow from the BoE, ECB and non-farm payroll data coming out Friday?

HowManyPips,

We do not have a set timeframe on this trade. As far as the fundies coming out tomorrow, although we respect them, we will not alter our position, regardless of the news. Like itme's post says re. elliot wave, the news may speed up the formation and change the magnitude, but the overall target should be met in the long run (paraphrasing). On this particular trade, we have a large stop in place with the R/R of 1 to 1, we therefore have time.

Northpro

Oct. 9, 2006

Well this N. Korean Nuclear Testing I would consider "Big News". At present we are holding our short position and assessing the possibility of exiting/modifying the position ahead of our target due to the uncertainty. Will advise.

Northpro

Oct 9, 2006<o>
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Trade results update.<o>
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Since the start of my thread in late August we have executed and completed 11 trades, consisting of 8 winners, 1 breakeven, and 2 losers. We are presently in our 12^th trade now shorting GBP/USD with 3 lots.
<o> </o>

Realized Pips: Cumulated Pips:
Trade 1: 130 2lots: 260
Trade 2: 0 2lots: 0
Trade 3: -55 2lots: -110
Trade 4: 100 2lots: 200
Trade 5: 114 2lots: 228
Trade 6: 248 2lots: 496
Trade 7: -57 3lots: -171
Trade 8: 20 3lots: 60
Trade 9: 47 3lots: 141
Trade 10: 115 3lots: 345
Trade 11: 139 3lots: 417
Trade 12: (not complete)
<o></o>

Total Realized:801 Total Cumulated:1866

(excuse the format, can't seem to tab and align) <o> </o>

Northpro

Oct. 10, 2006

Trade #12
GBP/USD
Target: 8607 Hit

Gain: +261 pips

Total Realized October: +261 pips
Total Realized since start: +1062 pips

Northpro

GBP/USD has descended to a low of 8526 and you reached your target. Are you waiting for a BUY position now?

Monarch,

Yes, that is correct. It will not happen today however. More than likely we will see a trade on the USD/CHF and the EUR/USD, but will wait for the close before confirming.

Northpro

I will be watching the Thread, thanks for the reply.
Monarch

Oct. 9, 2006

Purely a technical observation that holds little weight, but cannot be ignored. Over the past year the CHF/USD pair has had 8 sets of 5 or greater consistant days of gains/losses. Of those 8 only 2 were above 5 consistant days. All reversed in excess of 100 pips within 7 trading days from the originating days closing price, the median being 3.5 days and 165 pips. Also, the 2 sets above 5 reversed in excess of 190 pips. We are now at 6 consistant days of gains...Just food for thought.

Northpro

Oct 10, 2006<o>
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WaveTrade Signal
Trade #13

<o></o>EUR/USD
Long<o>
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Entry: 2532
Target: 2652
Stop: 2412<o>
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Potential: 120 pips<o>
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R/R: 1 to 1
W/L on pair: 89%<o>
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Once we are 1/2 way to target, we will move stop to 2552.
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Northpro

Oct 10, 2006<o>
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WaveTrade Signal
Trade #14

<o></o>USD/CHF
Short<o>
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Entry: 2706
Target: 2560
Stop: 2852<o>
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Potential: 146 pips<o>
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R/R: 1 to 1
W/L on pair: 69%<o>
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Once we are 1/2 way to target, we will move stop to 2686.
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Northpro

Northpro, copy on the EUR/USD and USD/CHF. What about GBP/USD I have entry for Buy at 1.8525, any thoughts on this?

Monarch,

I have a moderate signal on GBP to buy but am waiting for tomorrow for confirmation as I am exposed on the EUR now. Those are just my rules!!

Northpro

Appreciate the heads up, I am still waiting to make my entry into EUR/USD and USD/CHF positions.
I have several other positions opened at this time.
Monarch

Hi NORTHPRO i read your thread and i am very impressed i am on board good luck and good trading.

mniemiec,

Glad to have you following my thread. Like my first post says, please don't take my trades as recommendations to trade with a live account. There, I said my peace, welcome aboard.

Northpro

Great thread NorthPro , i really sad that i did not find this thread earlier :-(

I am really impressed by your results also seems that you have put alot of effort and time behing your system, please dont give up posting on the this thread.

Wishing you the best of success in your trades