(binned per thread starter’s request) World Currency Unit | Page 5 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

multiple systems per pair/multiple pairs per system? 3 replies

Trading 24 hours per day, 5 days per week 14 replies

Attachments: (binned per thread starter’s request) World Currency Unit
Exit Attachments

(binned per thread starter’s request) World Currency Unit

  • #81
  • Jun 12, 2018 11:40am Jun 12, 2018 11:40am
Quoting neilsdigest
{quote} It is the answer I believe.. Now I have just found out that wocu have an API to the WCU data feed.... I bet that will cost an arm and a leg. It's killing me off I tell you. All this data.... Now cocked up again as in the above chart I missed the USD/WCU off..... I should take a long break and then carry on. But that was a miracle....... Best to leave it off and focus only on the other seven currency.. The USD has so much Weight in the WCU it follows it nearly perfectly and the others don't.... So as I said in the last post we need to find...
A break would certainly help. USD against USD is exactly what I am trying to avoid...because there is no tradeable ETF or Options based on WCU...not that I know of. Which tells me, USD is still the king at the end of the outcome...and anything we come up will always be the derivative of USD in regards to relative price movements. Frankly, the entire currency market is.a derivative of USD....regardless of which pair you are trading, you are either net long or short USD as a simplified approach. I don't think you should focus on correlations. The meat (if any) will be to see if there is anything to exploit as a leading indicator for USD or any other currency. We need a leader and ignore all the laggards.

Thinking that shit further, you won't find much in price/pattern behaviour. It would be similar to any other lagging indicator imo. This could be a good tool for fundamentals as in tracking price behavioural sequences causing quarterly announcements and then predicting the move of correlated economies. .... It might just be another tool to look at for orientation or supporting your main signal.

Sorry/ I might be the one making your head spin with ideas so take a break bro.
Staying in my lane...
  • #82
  • Jun 12, 2018 12:20pm Jun 12, 2018 12:20pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} A break would certainly help. USD against USD is exactly what I am trying to avoid...because there is no tradeable ETF or Options based on WCU...not that I know of. Which tells me, USD is still the king at the end of the outcome...and anything we come up will always be the derivative of USD in regards to relative price movements. Frankly, the entire currency market is.a derivative of USD....regardless of which pair you are trading, you are either net long or short USD as a simplified approach. I don't think you should focus on correlations....
What we have to remember and their is only one solution is to get the data feed for the WCU from the API from WOCU.... As tradingview charts don't update in real time like normal charts.. It updates every hour or so..

Now before I retire for the day I was messing about with the EUR/USD and the WCU/USD... As in previous post the USD follows the WCU nearly 100%.....

But I just seen the EUR/USD go red candle and the WCU/USD go red... It usually if the EUR/USD is falling then the WCU/USD rises... But I had two red bars.

Now here is the magic as now the USD is falling stronger then the WCU is rising. I did open 25 lot sell on the EUR/USD as soon as I got two red bars. The EUR/USD went into freefall....

Right I'll leave it running and go get some dinner before I pass out.....

NOW BAN ME FROM DOING ANY MORE - Just for today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: WCUUSD.png Size: 4 KB
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #83
  • Jun 12, 2018 12:38pm Jun 12, 2018 12:38pm
Quoting neilsdigest
{quote} What we have to remember and their is only one solution is to get the data feed for the WCU from the API from WOCU.... As tradingview charts don't update in real time like normal charts.. It updates every hour or so.. Now before I retire for the day I was messing about with the EUR/USD and the WCU/USD... As in previous post the USD follows the WCU nearly 100%..... But I just seen the EUR/USD go red candle and the WCU/USD go red... It usually if the EUR/USD is falling then the WCU/USD rises... But I had two red bars. Now here is the magic...
On No... it is too late to escape this sh*t now. The genie is already sitting on our shoulders playing banjo with your mind LOL

You don't need the price feed from WCO. I am talking about replicating the entire WOCU design in MT4 or whatever trading platform you use and then do the calculations yourself in real time bro. Otherwise, you are stuck with depending on a price feed that you have to paid and who knows what other complications you might run into. GDP does not change every hour so the calculations are purely based on the respective exchange rates and their GDP controlled weightings. What you are suggesting might work but only if you trade the H1 candle as part of whatever strategy you currently use or new one you are trying to develop. Makes sense?

The code I shared should take less than a day to "replicate" the wocu api price feed design using price feeds of all required currency pairs from the broker. Ofcource crapT4 is crap but it is a good analytical tool to find your discoveries (if any).
Staying in my lane...
  • #84
  • Jun 12, 2018 12:50pm Jun 12, 2018 12:50pm
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} On No... it is too late to escape this sh*t now. The genie is already sitting on our shoulders playing banjo with your mind LOL You don't need the price feed from WCO. I am talking about replicating the entire WOCU design in MT4 or whatever trading platform you use and then do the calculations yourself in real time bro. Otherwise, you are stuck with depending on a price feed that you have to paid and who knows what other complications you might run into. GDP does not change every hour so the calculations are purely based on the respective...
I get what you mean now. I think it's all down to lack of sleep again... My brain can't take no more. It's full of shit lol

They are both still red so I will leave it and have the stop loss do its magic.

OK as nearly everyone on forex factory hates images as they can be photoshopped. I did a quick 40 second video just to prove it was real.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mp4 VideoEURUSD.mp4   406 KB | 617 downloads
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #85
  • Jun 13, 2018 5:37pm Jun 13, 2018 5:37pm
Right it's doing well but I'm out of here now for good. Too many freaks in this place....

I might just not publish this and keep it to myself or go somewhere else.... Nothing wrong with this thread or the people who can post here..... I have, never come across such a sad low life place like this forum.

I will update this post when or if I decide to publish it somewhere else..

This forum in all honesty should be renamed psychofactory !!!!

I sort of got it working on the currency indexes but it's nowhere near as powerful as the WCU (World Currency Unit)

CHOW!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DXIINDEX.png Size: 246 KB
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #86
  • Edited 9:17am Jun 15, 2018 8:29am | Edited 9:17am
Getting there slowly.... The USD/WCU bottomed on the H1 and H4 candle.. I was worried as the daily still has a long drop to bottom..

Note though that when the WCU bottoms against the Dollar. You would think the Dollar would rise... But no, it's reversed. As the USD has so much weight in the WCU.. The USD/WCU is like trading USD/USD

Why do peoples posts keep disappearing from the thread..... ? - If this gets one dislike I won't publish the formula LOL

Still a little work in progress but not bad with just £7000 drawdown.

So here we have the USD bottomed.... No pivots, No MA, No usual retail trap rubbish....

See how it goes as the Daily has still not bottomed.. I hate it when the stoploss lights up!!

It's having a fight now... Who will win? EUR has just enough buyers to keep it going a bit longer. The USD keeps on fighting though.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDBOTTOMED.png Size: 361 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: TradeOfTheYear.png Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: StopLOSSeurusd.png Size: 3 KB
Attached Image
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #87
  • Edited 9:35am Jun 15, 2018 9:18am | Edited 9:35am
I agree with VEEFX, currency vs currency correlations are not going to work when you try build an EA or indicator for this. This is not what drives the markets. One day you will find that the WCU is lagging and the next its leading the EUR. If it was only just a leader or just a lagger that trade would be arbed out of existence.
You havent found a secret value indicator here that the institutions are not aware of.

It is the bond markets that drive the value in the currencies and even there they do not always drive. The markets are far more complicated as one market vs another. There is only one indicator I have seen that is predictive as its based on the market makers pricing in the option markets and shows exactly what they think is going to happen in the market as they adjust their pricing of the options before the market starts to move. You can see it demoed here:

https://www.compassproptraders.com/2018/06/06-13-18-daily-focus-session-market-makers-model/

The institutions build AI models where there are sometimes over 130 different correlated markets or combination of markets that go into valuing a single instrument. This type of trading is called Statistical Arbitrage.

Here is a simple three market correlation that shows intrinsic value the GBPUSD pair. With this model you can see when the pair is trading at a discount or a premium.

 

  1. Purple line = Main value line. This is the true value of the pair and is derived from the bond markets
  2. Green Line - This shows how the large pension funds are trading and if they are either short or long the pair and either need to buy or sell to balance their books. The pension funds are not allowed to take on FX expsoure in their overseas holdings and are at times forced to trade to balance their books. At month end or weekends when you hear that there is book balancing that needs to happen this is how you cal tell.
  3. Red Line - This is the EURUSD. These two currencies are highly correlated and both priced in USD so it can show when the GBP is trading at a discount or a premium to the USD. Because of selling or buying of the USD this will happen across the board on all pairs and will often drag the GBP away from its value line (purple line) even though its not necessarily got anything to do with GBP specifically. Eg Like yesterday due to the ECB dovish annoucement the Pound sold off even though is not GBP news. Its because GBPUSD is valued in USDs

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gjqpeWD.png Size: 166 KB


1 Value is above the market and therefore you are only looking for longs.
2 Pension funds are bullish and value is above
3 Even though value is starting to come off, the pension funds have to buy GBP to balance their books, they are very light on the long side.
4 As soon as the PFs stop buying the pair comes off as value is now below the market and is trading at a premium
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #88
  • Jun 15, 2018 9:30am Jun 15, 2018 9:30am
This has nothing to do with currency correlations!

But I do agree with you on the rest... I worked for Barclays Investment bank for seven years. This will never be made into an indicator or EA. No need too... You only get a couple of trades a month... I guarantee Barclays is on this trade.. Wonder how I know!

Out of here again now... Everyone is so negative today.. I hate negative. What ever happens now I'm guaranteed £28.000 profit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UpdateTrade.png Size: 3 KB
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #89
  • Jun 15, 2018 9:50am Jun 15, 2018 9:50am
Quoting neilsdigest
I worked for Barclays Investment bank for seven years. {image}
cool, so did I.
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #90
  • Edited 10:11am Jun 15, 2018 9:55am | Edited 10:11am
Quoting copi88
{quote} cool, so did I.
It's amazing what you learn from the dirt bags.. To be honest I hated every minute of it.. Greedy arrogant pigs but left with a wealth of knowledge ;-)

Stop loss moved for 30K...

Order closed at end Of London Session. They beat me to it.... £31K banked.....

It still might go up but with London shut and profit taking at end of session, I'm not going to chance it. They closed for massive profits....

Have a great weekend
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #91
  • Jun 15, 2018 10:49am Jun 15, 2018 10:49am
Quoting neilsdigest
{quote} It's amazing what you learn from the dirt bags.. To be honest I hated every minute of it.. Greedy arrogant pigs but left with a wealth of knowledge ;-) Stop loss moved for 30K... Order closed at end Of London Session. They beat me to it.... £31K banked..... It still might go up but with London shut and profit taking at end of session, I'm not going to chance it. They closed for massive profits.... Have a great weekend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gUyZosj.png Size: 238 KB


short term value is coming off so about right to get off now also considering the time of day.. long term value is around 1.1700
Boxing clever since 76.
  • #92
  • Jun 15, 2018 2:40pm Jun 15, 2018 2:40pm
Quoting copi88
I agree with VEEFX, currency vs currency correlations are not going to work when you try build an EA or indicator for this. This is not what drives the markets. One day you will find that the WCU is lagging and the next its leading the EUR. If it was only just a leader or just a lagger that trade would be arbed out of existence. You havent found a secret value indicator here that the institutions are not aware of. It is the bond markets that drive the value in the currencies and even there they do not always drive. The markets are far more complicated...
"It is the bond markets that drive the value in the currencies and even there they do not always drive"...I have zero knowledge of the "bond market" and how it drives price. Would you please care to expand more on this with specifics on what exactly should I be looking at. I have only focussed on the 10yr note from a fundamental analysis standpoint. "How to determine value of a currency?" has always intrigued me but could not find any concrete answers. I am hoping you would be specific and not high level stuff that I can Google :-)

Neil - please keep up the good work bro... I am enjoying your analysis and research journey
Staying in my lane...
  • #93
  • Edited 3:22pm Jun 15, 2018 2:56pm | Edited 3:22pm
I'm loving it...

If copi88 doesn't come back for a while here is a good primer on it.. Interesting read... One thing though, DON'T visit the forum its as bad as this one for crazies

It's more to do with the Yield then the bond itself. It would take ages to write and I feel lazy after today so;

How Bond Yields Affect Currency Movements
https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/the-411-on-bonds

How Bond Spreads Between Two Countries Affect Their Exchange Rate
https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/bond-spreads

How Fixed Income Securities Affect Currency Movements
https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/bond-markets-fixed-income-securities-and-the-forex-market

I'll keep up the good work but as long as you don't put me on your ignore list. It's filling up LOL

US Government bonds 10 YR yield daily chart

Have a great weekend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GetridofMT4.png Size: 75 KB
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #94
  • Jun 15, 2018 3:24pm Jun 15, 2018 3:24pm
Quoting neilsdigest
I'm loving it... If copi88 doesn't come back for a while here is a good primer on it.. Interesting read... One thing though, DON'T visit the forum its as bad as this one for crazies It's more to do with the Yield then the bond itself. It would take ages to write and I feel lazy after today so; How Bond Yields Affect Currency Movements https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/the-411-on-bonds How Bond Spreads Between Two Countries Affect Their Exchange Rate https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/bond-spreads How Fixed Income Securities...
LOL... As I said, we share the same sentiment in regards to this swamp and forums in general :-

My questions was not what or how it affects the exchange rate but how to truly determine the "valuation" of an currency exchange rate. Folks talk about buying low at a discount price... how much low is truly low from a FUNDAMENTAL economic strength/weakness standpoint without looking at the historical chart and drawing lines off the extremities? Similar to buying a stock based on valuation, I have not found anything meaningful to purchase a currency (or currency pair or even a currency INDEX) based on fundamental valuation of it's economic indicators or associated derivatives. Am I making sense?

EDIT: And I am not referring to measuring in relative terms. I am looking for absolute valuation based on economic indicators. I personally don't think there is a way but I don't have a degree in economics.

EDIT1: An perhaps, it will point us to the WOCU relationship in regards to it's "valuation" against the rest...
Staying in my lane...
  • #95
  • Edited 4:18pm Jun 15, 2018 3:46pm | Edited 4:18pm
Well if we all new that we would all be billionaires... I wish I new mate. I really do..

How much low is truly low? Good question but even the big boys don't know that... Truly impossible to tell. If we could from a fundamental standpoint know that than I don't believe in the holy grail but that would be it.

Take the Euro... Look at the debt of each of the Euro countries.. Austria's debt is 87% of it's GDP. Even though not in the WCU.

Updated to say Australia's debt is 44% to its GDP... Its to much I believe to do and work on for any currency strength...

I'll do some research when I can with it over the weekend.

China will in the next 5 - 10 years take the top spot from the USA in GDP.... US has incredible debts.

Now we can give the currency an absolute value based on its GBP and debt. Worth a thought.

Lets see if copi88 comes back and see if he can explain it.... From Barclays as well.

One big thing wrong with fundamental analysis - It gives excellent insights, but it can be extraordinarily time-consuming.

Government Debt to GDP in Australia averaged 23.16 percent from 1989 until 2017, reaching an all time high of 41.90 percent in 2017 and a record low of 9.70 percent in 2007.

I really don't think we can rate a currency on fundamental data.. Not in the short term anyway. Long term maybe.

Now looking at that data and chart I'd say forget the fundamentals... Except for some things.

Updated again to say I don't think all this fundamental data has one bit of power in the currency..... Now if some idiot newsreader says something bad about the Euro or Dollar for example, even though it's fake news it will fall on that news.... Wrong yes but true fact...

Now saying that; Generally, Government debt as a percent of GDP is used by investors to measure a countries ability to make future payments on its debt, thus affecting the countries borrowing costs and government bond yields which will effect the currency.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AXY chart.png Size: 34 KB
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #96
  • Jun 16, 2018 10:53am Jun 16, 2018 10:53am
Quoting neilsdigest
Well if we all new that we would all be billionaires... I wish I new mate. I really do.. How much low is truly low? Good question but even the big boys don't know that... Truly impossible to tell. If we could from a fundamental standpoint know that than I don't believe in the holy grail but that would be it. Take the Euro... Look at the debt of each of the Euro countries.. Austria's debt is 87% of it's GDP. Even though not in the WCU. Updated to say Australia's debt is 44% to its GDP... Its to much I believe to do and work on for any currency strength......
Thanks man. I use Fundamentals just for entertainment and increase my knowledge. I had got f*cked taking a bias from what gurus say. You are spot on about debt vs GDP ratio. There are certain reports that do help with trading money flows but all these are used only as supporting evidence. Frankly, nowadays, I ask two questions 1)when? 2) will it generate volatility? Knowing these two is anough to grab pips.

Win some over here and lose some over there :-)
Staying in my lane...
  • #97
  • Jun 16, 2018 3:06pm Jun 16, 2018 3:06pm
Great to see this topic brought up

I used to have a 7*8 grid of currency charts.
Every combination of USD EUR JPY GBP NZD CHF CAD AUD.
As in each currency is shown as a basket in a column.
For example the USD basket would be made out of :
USDEUR, USDJPY, USDGBP, USDNZD, USDCHF, USDCAD, USDAUD.
The problem I was facing was that there were way too many pairs to monitor.

The logic though was simple : Is the entire basket going down/up ? Great, its currently a leader on the market. Is the entire column made out of up & down movements ? Bad, its not a leader.

However I decided to stick just to the USD basket.
I was looking for trend following purely. If the entire basket is going in to one direction, find pairs which would show as less whipsawing as possible. The main problems I faced ? I couldn't monitor the h1, since it dosent give me enough time to trail my stops manually. The d1 was taking too long. So I decided to stick to h4, I would look at all the price movements only in the context of the current week.
As if my history got deleted every monday. Another issue was : what is the reference point to gauge if its up or down?
The weekly opening was chosen. However I needed something less lagging (p.s. I found a correlation between lag and realibility).
So the 30m.a. was chosen, 30*4 gives a W1 period.

From that point I had to find a mathematical way of measuring which pairs are the most mean aversive ? I got stuck at trying to weight all pairs together amongst each other.

By the way, from my observations on average each month 2/5 weeks show basket moving in the same direction.

And the basket approach allows me to observe what I call the magnet. If the magnet is on, the basket keeps on diverging from the mean. If its off, than its stuck in a whipsaw.
It also seemed that a the prices might get magneted to the 1stdev from the mean, and upon breaching that might get stuck to 2stdev from the mean. Note also that the mean itself would be increasing/decreasing in a trend.

To understand this concept, put a moving average on a chart. Find a piece where its trending upwards. And attempt to flatten it out. As in capture the distance of the price from the mean at each point. And draw the mean as a flat horizontal line, then draw the price based on that flat mean at the same distance.
The truth is hidden from you
  • #98
  • Jun 17, 2018 3:46pm Jun 17, 2018 3:46pm
Quoting MaxenshteinD
Great to see this topic brought up I used to have a 7*8 grid of currency charts. Every combination of USD EUR JPY GBP NZD CHF CAD AUD. As in each currency is shown as a basket in a column. For example the USD basket would be made out of : USDEUR, USDJPY, USDGBP, USDNZD, USDCHF, USDCAD, USDAUD. The problem I was facing was that there were way too many pairs to monitor. The logic though was simple : Is the entire basket going down/up ? Great, its currently a leader on the market. Is the entire column made out of up & down movements ? Bad,...
Clap clap..."If the magnet is on, the basket keeps on diverging from the mean. If its off, than its stuck in a whipsaw." Is the most important sentence in your post.
Staying in my lane...
  • #99
  • Edited 7:22pm Jun 17, 2018 5:01pm | Edited 7:22pm
Nice post Maxenshtein........ I am seriously sick and tired of this evil place though but have to update this thread when I can... Nothing of interest yet as the markets have just opened and China is shut for a national holiday. Not sure if that will have any impact though.

Just makes me wonder that every post either I do or Veefx does gets disliked...... The devil follows!!

Anyway here is a weekly basket chart for the CAD.... Just from that you can see its weak and been weak for a few weeks.... If you look at the chart you will see there all dropping but one....It's flatlining.... The AUD... Because it's very weak also.

Now what I notice is how some pairs drop before the others do!!!!

Second chart the USD..... Strongest currency this year.

At 1am London time. I opened the biggest trade of my life.... Well with this week I thought it safe to go to a safe haven currency. So bought the JPY Big time !!!!
If I go broke I'll blame this place!!!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADINDEXBASKET.png Size: 370 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDINDEXBASKET.png Size: 388 KB
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #100
  • Jun 17, 2018 7:49pm Jun 17, 2018 7:49pm
That baby put the shit in me..... Poor JPY... On the ten minute chart.. Still strongest on the daily..

Waiting for the sad person to dislike it ;-)
Attached Image
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
0 traders viewing now