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Automated or semi automated trading? 3 replies

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Hybrid Grid-Automated

  • #761
  • Jun 16, 2018 8:39am Jun 16, 2018 8:39am
Quoting bishopdotun
After 85 days, the account is still running.... {image} Key Takeaways - Manage the risk and the reward will be sweet. FX is not a get rich quick scheme. If you take too much risk, you may blow up your account faster than you blink your eye. We all have different risk tolerance. There were some tough moments and the account is still holding out. - Watch the trades. Sometimes I assist too with my trades at key levels and be sure you know what you are doing. I use pivot points and harmonics to determine where I load additional trades. - This style...
You have done great, just a question.

By using fixed lot increment you rely on a full swing (trend reversal) to get into profit.
Using the one time increment (0,01/0,02/0,03) you only need 1/2, 1/3 reversal to profit which in my eyes is a better bet.
On Brexit (ge and gu if trades where open of course) and the same for last eur move on the end of QE statement probably would have drained the account or lowered it substantially without the chance for speedy recovery.
I can calculate the movement of stars, but not the madness of men. Isaac N.
  • #762
  • Jun 16, 2018 9:10am Jun 16, 2018 9:10am
Quoting FxMadness
{quote} You have done great, just a question. By using fixed lot increment you rely on a full swing (trend reversal) to get into profit. Using the one time increment (0,01/0,02/0,03) you only need 1/2, 1/3 reversal to profit which in my eyes is a better bet. On Brexit (ge and gu if trades where open of course) and the same for last eur move on the end of QE statement probably would have drained the account or lowered it substantially without the chance for speedy recovery.
In some way, yes you may be right. I however found that fixed lot works better for me.

Might be taking a little longer to clean out losing positions, but fixed lot reduced my risks substantially. Contrary to what you said about QE, fixed lot worked like magic. The swings before and after the news cleaned out the DD for me.

So I would say, understand the risk and use what works best for you.
  • #763
  • Jun 16, 2018 9:10am Jun 16, 2018 9:10am
Quoting clemmo17
Not sure this will help you decide but there is the idea of 'time in trade' and the value of compounding with faster trades. So it seems if trades need to close at a defined price they might achieve a slightly better profit but will they also take longer to close out? Whereas averaging out is more organic and frees up capital to be reallocated faster? Even if I've got it backwards I believe the only way to find out for sure is to pit one version against another in a forward test.
Good point.

But...is it a question of how much 'time in trade' we have showing on the account or would 'Avg Trade Duration' be the better determining factor?

If you have a skinny profit expectation, this may be achieved a lot quicker than hitting an actual target - Less time in trade, shorter trade duration.

Meaning...and the point has been brought up before...the more trades you take, the more profit you have and the biggest point about these is that you are continuously rotating your margin from pair to pair as you profit...in theory. This can also follow the idea of a forced close when all positions have a sum total of a value greater than user defined vs having portions of trade cycles close when they have a sum total of a value greater than user defined.

A lot of the success from these grid EAs comes from the fact that they walk away with several profits on single trades and cycles that is less than a single dollar. What we are effectively doing is replicating the Walmart Strategy on a much smaller scale...

ie - With the proper settings and pairs, all of these traders and cost averaging strategies have the capacity to take a $1000 account turn a few hundred trades per week and generate 10-25%. Applied on greater scales, can take a $2-3k account and add 30% per month. (Just looking at my personal stats)

They do so by extracting profit at tiny scales for the reason that it is seemingly more practical and effective to assume consistent profit at a small scale of $200 per week than would be to find a Single Trade that will generate, with a high degree of accuracy, the same value.

The idea of working with the Pivot Strategy is to take sums of trades taken with a more strategic placement and exit them all at a single value to capture a single sum total greater than the value of what would be a sum of much smaller pieces.

This could be done at either a Fixed Value of gridded trade for a little less Draw, or Sum Start for a higher net value.

In looking at the application of a User Defined Price Close option, I am only looking at it as applied to a Pivot Based Strategy...all others still require the market range dynamics due to their trend definitions and market movements.

Dunno man...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #764
  • Jun 16, 2018 9:19am Jun 16, 2018 9:19am
Quoting FxMadness
Do not use a fixed pip (points) distance for compounding trades but use ADR / x
Also use bulls-bears power to hold of compounding trades until the relevant one loses its upper hand.
The fixed pip value for the grid is still inside a Trigger on Grid Strategy as well as is user defined. Meaning...we have the ability to set a minimum trade distance, but still require the price to move in a pattern that is consistent with the Cost Averaging Strategy.

I like the idea of allowing the market to set this value, as we already work with market based dynamics for triggering, cost averaging and exiting at profit points.

That being said, I am lost in the application of ADR as applied to the M1 charts.

I think we will need to dive deeper into this to make sure it gets applied correctly...as would need a better idea of the application of the bulls-bears power.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #765
  • Jun 16, 2018 9:22am Jun 16, 2018 9:22am
Quoting Magix
Alright... So, just kinda mulling over some ideas here... If we go to working a lot closer to the incorporating the Pivot Trade idea, would it be of a benefit to have all trades close at a User Defined Price? or is it better to just allow portions of the trades close out profits and continue to cost average out the rest of the positions? I coded in a user defined price trigger a long time ago, but this was for taking trades so that an initial trade wouldn't show up as pending...long story...but anyways...if we follow as closely as possible to our...
I do prefer this option.

"allow portions of the trades close out profits and continue to cost average out the rest of the positions"

However, you never know which is really better until you forward test.
  • #766
  • Jun 16, 2018 9:29am Jun 16, 2018 9:29am
Quoting Magix
{quote} The fixed pip value for the grid is still inside a Trigger on Grid Strategy as well as is user defined. Meaning...we have the ability to set a minimum trade distance, but still require the price to move in a pattern that is consistent with the Cost Averaging Strategy. I like the idea of allowing the market to set this value, as we already work with market based dynamics for triggering, cost averaging and exiting at profit points. That being said, I am lost in the application of ADR as applied to the M1 charts. I think we will need to dive...
An important question to ask is: How many days ADR is best? 5, 10, 14, 20 days?

Does it really matter? You can't predict. Before now, I was using ADR to calculate pip distance but I later discovered that it is not really necessary. So I just chose 5 pips and time interval of 15 minutes between trades. The CA method does the rest in defining at what price to place trades. Since I started using this approach, I found that the spacing between trades is good and the risk reduced a lot.

Again, you cant tell until you try. There might be better ideas out there that we have not considered.
  • #767
  • Jun 16, 2018 9:38am Jun 16, 2018 9:38am
Quoting bishopdotun
{quote} I agree with you. I do think adding pivots to the triggering methodology of the NN versions will add a significant edge to the strategy. Here are some of my thoughts. - Consider adding a user defined Pivot level to start trading to the weekly median or hard code it to (61, 78, 100 e.t.c.) - Define the max number of trades to be taken at each level. The decision to trade will include weekly median, pivot point, primary triggering, CA method, pip step, time and the max number of trades allowed at each pivot level. See below some trades in...

Are all Pivot Points created equally?

For the most part, all of my strategies have a very base description but do not give 100% of the EXACT triggering...

Reason being...for every idea I have, each and every active user will have a suggestion of how this could be improved. Now...I am totally for an open dialogue on these as we can all prosper from a better mousetrap...but having been an FF member for a while, I think we can both appreciate the idea that 'too many cooks can spoil the broth'.

We start at a single idea and by the time we take a moment to look back, we are so far away from where we have started that our image no longer appears to be our intent.

So...on the pivotal scale...User Defined...as applied to whose value? As applied to Which Broker? As applied to which time frame? As viewed through which indicator?

I have a vision of, as soon as this hits print, to have a thread flood of suggestions and reasons for why it should be done differently...All of which may have equal value but that value and rational.

My idea was more to have a Pivot EA to be used as a Tool for Manual Trade Support. Take your own specific Logic for Pivoting and Market Movement, add in the Cost Averaging Methodology and Increment Value - Fixed or Sum, and allow you to specify a suitable market exit - based on your pivot point analysis.

By being both specific and generic at the same time, it allows each user to fit this utility into their traders toolbox, without forcing my own personal stance or a single solid analysis.

The idea can work on a few different levels as we do our own individual analysis we can:
1. Set a pending order for the Primary Trade. If/When the pending order gets picked, the cost averaging strategy kicks in.
2. Use a Trade Trigger, where once we see through our own specific analysis a market top or bottom, we enable the EA to take the primary trade on Trigger - ie if price closes below XX EMA enter Sell and then allow the cost averaging strategy to kick in.
3. We take our first trade manually and look for pivotal points on the chart where we'd like to exit...ie working with a NY Daily Candle. If price is Below Daily Candle, we take a long, looking to exit as price tests the NY Roll Over price.

All of these can work with the existing exit strategies, but may leave a lot more meat on the bone than is acceptable by the individual.

If we keep this specific enough to allow user defined starts...would it make sense to allow a single solid user define exit?
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #768
  • Jun 16, 2018 9:42am Jun 16, 2018 9:42am
Quoting bishopdotun
{quote} An important question to ask is: How many days ADR is best? 5, 10, 14, 20 days? Does it really matter? You can't predict. Before now, I was using ADR to calculate pip distance but I later discovered that it is not really necessary. So I just chose 5 pips and time interval of 15 minutes between trades. The CA method does the rest in defining at what price to place trades. Since I started using this approach, I found that the spacing between trades is good and the risk reduced a lot. Again, you cant tell until you try. There might be better...

Versions that I worked with prior to Evolution allowed for the same 900 second delay.

For whatever reason, as applied to an M1 chart, this did seem to be very effective at defining market range dynamics.

Great that you can confirm my findings.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #769
  • Jun 16, 2018 12:35pm Jun 16, 2018 12:35pm
Okay...

Attached Image


I've taken the simple approach...because in this case, less might actually be more.

Though it is a simple approach, it does seemingly offer up everything I had mentioned on user taking the primary trigger, EA to take the Primary Trigger where a VERY Simple (Medium Aggressive) Logic will work to cost average in, based on both the Time and Grid Specifications.

In this...I've added in Close Price Longs and Close Price Shorts...why not just a simple Close Price?

Well...given that we aren't always right or that we may actually find ourselves in a position where we are both long and short for scalps and swings...why the fuck not?
lol

Magic Number - Defaulted to Zero so that a Manual Trigger will engage the EA cost averaging and has been defaulted to work with a 300 second delay, so, M5 chart.



Will give this a whirl next week and see what comes of it.

Not going to send this out to the group...but if you are a Member and want to give it a shot, send me an email and I will fire it on over.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #770
  • Jun 16, 2018 12:37pm Jun 16, 2018 12:37pm
Magix, Agree in all you have posted above, before we know it, would be far from the original concept, for me is the core principle/workings behind the method, in "my opinion only" the cost averaging is a given, we have the ability to change the lot stage at what the user is comfortable with, the logic behind decisions works very well too.
Using the Hybrid manual you can have all the inner working methodology attached to any sole EA by linking the magic numbers, the sole EA can be of any logic programmed to open trades so maybe this an angle to work on, sole Ea attaching the core logic via MN.
Thursday seen many effected by the big fall of the Euro, I had many lots open on both EU & EJ , sum lot start seen my account red lined and no more trades could be opened, but in all fairness, because of the lot nature, it picked up quickly, if more lots had been opened, I would have seen a more "rapid rise" it worked against me but worked for me.
I would sure like to see this evolve but not at the cost of loosing the core principle, D
EDIT
Trading this live,D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #771
  • Jun 16, 2018 12:47pm Jun 16, 2018 12:47pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Are all Pivot Points created equally? For the most part, all of my strategies have a very base description but do not give 100% of the EXACT triggering... Reason being...for every idea I have, each and every active user will have a suggestion of how this could be improved. Now...I am totally for an open dialogue on these as we can all prosper from a better mousetrap...but having been an FF member for a while, I think we can both appreciate the idea that 'too many cooks can spoil the broth'. We start at a single idea and by the time we take...
This may sound absolutely mad and I'm laughing at myself now, an EA that just opens a buy and sell at a specific time, user specific, attach logic to each one with appropriate MN, select a profit target, boosh!!!!, problem solved LOL, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #772
  • Jun 16, 2018 12:58pm Jun 16, 2018 12:58pm
Quoting detector
{quote} This may sound absolutely mad and I'm laughing at myself now, an EA that just opens a buy and sell at a specific time, user specific, attach logic to each one with appropriate MN, select a profit target, boosh!!!!, problem solved LOL, D
Really not to far off of the Hybrid Starting point...

All I did was make it a little more restrictive and add a few more bells n whistles.

Link
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #773
  • Jun 16, 2018 1:07pm Jun 16, 2018 1:07pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Really not to far off of the Hybrid Starting point... All I did was make it a little more restrictive and add a few more bells n whistles. Link
The thing is, it's so forgiving, if it can recover accounts with it's logic then why complicate things, the idea of a buy and sell is both angles are hedged against, fire up Sunday night when spread is stable, every hour check for all buys or sells closed then open the appropriate, just looking at your TE it seems the DD is a temporary situation, as with my account, just need to money manage with account size, also how many traded in the basket, all this and I haven't touched a drop LOL, D
EDIT, liked the link BTW, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #774
  • Jun 16, 2018 1:25pm Jun 16, 2018 1:25pm
It would be an interesting test, to pitch the simple against the complex, adding the buying and selling may have a distinct advantage in that the margin would go a little further, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
  • #775
  • Jun 16, 2018 4:14pm Jun 16, 2018 4:14pm
Donation made!
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  • #776
  • Jun 16, 2018 5:13pm Jun 16, 2018 5:13pm
Quoting startearning
Donation made! {image}
Welcome aboard!

\m/
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #777
  • Jun 16, 2018 5:57pm Jun 16, 2018 5:57pm
Aight...

Need your help!!!

For those of you who don't know, my son is in the Canadian Armed Forces...

In this...he's looking to advance and to do so, needs to have another language under his belt.

No simple challenge as he is a millennial, meaning, he doesn't even have a full handle on our Native English Tongue...Anyways...

I have committed to learning a second language with him. His 2 options are Russian and Farsi.

As our heritage is Ukrainian, I tip the scales towards learning the mother tongue...but am okay with either.

If you have or can recommend any sources to help us in our journey, it would be greatly appreciated if you can post them for me to use and pass along.

Huge Thanks, in advance.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #778
  • Jun 16, 2018 6:07pm Jun 16, 2018 6:07pm
Quoting Magix
Though it is a simple approach, it does seemingly offer up everything I had mentioned on user taking the primary trigger, EA to take the Primary Trigger where a VERY Simple (Medium Aggressive) Logic will work to cost average in, based on both the Time and Grid Specifications.
So...here's the dealio...

Pivot Pro Logic...IS FULL AUTO, BUT!!!!

It is fully automated but not full Pivot Rule Compliant...as in, as soon as you set it, it will look for the first trigger available based on the Magix Scalp Logic - without the filter and set to the time-frame of the chart. So...ya probably don't want to leave this just running unattended...

If you want to use it full logic, the best way to do this is to Observe Pivot Points - as per your own personal ideas...Set an Exit price for Close Price Longs or Shorts - depending on if you are taking long or short trades...and ENABLE.

Once enabled, the first available trigger is taken and then the logic will KICK IN!

IF/when you close price is available on Bid, and profit is greater than/equal too the minimum profit, ALL TRADES WILL CLOSE!
This will only happen if the sum of all trades meet or exceed the value of the Take Profit(in account currency), failing this...the code will wait until minimum profit is met and close at that point.

Option 2...Read your charts and take a trade. Set your Close Profit Price, ensure you are on the correct delay for the chart you are watching and enable the EA.

There is a semi aggressive cost averaging logic in place that is meant to work with the earliest possible trend reversal logic, but is CANDLE and PRICE based. Enable this on the chart of your choice and see how you make out.

Due to the constrictions of the Close Price Logic, I am unable to fully test the logic, so, please work with this in a DEMO environment until we can confirm the triggering and exit logic.

AGAIN!!!

I am not sending this out to our group to save on confusion, but if you would like a copy, please email me and I will forward it along.

Note - Ask as many questions as you need to!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #779
  • Jun 17, 2018 12:11am Jun 17, 2018 12:11am
Quoting jdva
Yes...STOCHS2 stress test passed with distinction through FED and ECB...f. i. EU 290 pips down move yesterday, only UC and NU still in the red... {image} Hopefully Magix is able to sort out his muddle... Good luck, jdva
Yes ...... another example is here to say that Stochs2 is working well. It has survived last week's big move. See attached files for parameter setup and P/L.
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  • #780
  • Jun 17, 2018 7:13am Jun 17, 2018 7:13am
Quoting Magix
Aight... Need your help!!! For those of you who don't know, my son is in the Canadian Armed Forces... In this...he's looking to advance and to do so, needs to have another language under his belt. No simple challenge as he is a millennial, meaning, he doesn't even have a full handle on our Native English Tongue...Anyways... I have committed to learning a second language with him. His 2 options are Russian and Farsi. As our heritage is Ukrainian, I tip the scales towards learning the mother tongue...but am okay with either. If you have or can recommend...
Unfortunately I cannot help in this department but but sure with all you have done, help will come, good luck, D
I don't need to be good at the game, only good enough to beat my opponent,
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