Question on probability based trading idea

Dear Traders, im not quite good at math but i have a question ? (If we can solve it i will delete post if its not helping us!)

Has anyone ever made profit from a 50 / 50 winrate with 1:1 profit and loss ?

Or better said is it possible to make a 50 / 50 winrate with expaction 1:1 profotable ?



Hear is my idea, but im not quite good at math so maybe you can help me find out if im right or wrong, i would really appreciate it



I did an ea that trades randomly and i found out that win loss ratio is almost everytime 50:50 with (tp/sl 1:1).... now im trying to calculate this:

If i set one order!->
Tp 60 points
Sl 60 points

My chances to win are
50% win
50% loss

If i now retrade my loss in the full amount: but with smaller tp and sl what would happen ?

I dont have the money to buy a new ea to test it and i would like to know before if i am mathematically correct so i would be glad for your help.


So if 50 % win and 50 % loss
My first trade is - 60 pipps if i loose i reopen 4 order randomly with 15 pipps tp and sl cause probability for all 4 order is 50% to 50%!

So order possibilty:
1. Order TP SL - 60 pipps
If
Win: open again this same order!
If loss
2. Order TP SL - 15 pipps
3. Order TP SL - 15 pipps
4. Order TP SL - 15 pipps
5. Order TP SL - 15 pipps

And then re-do it:

So one friend told me that possibilities are multiplied: in that case the order possibilities would look like this:

Win: 0.5*60 pipps = 30 pipps average win
Loss:
1) 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×120 = 3.75 pipps .average if all 5 trades loose
2) 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×90= 2.81 pipps .average if 4 trades loose and one winns
3) 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×60= 1.875 pipps . Average if 3 trades loose and two trades win
4) 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×30 = 0.93 pipps . Average if 2 loose and 3 winn
5) 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0 = 0 pipps . Average if 1 loose and 4 win

So now we accumulate the average loss and it is:
3.75+2.81+1.875+0.93+0= 9.34 pipps
Average win is = 60*0.5 = 30 pipps

So expactancy is 21.66 pipps + !
We will gain pipps the more often we play!

As i said!! I am very bad a math! Or besser said probabilty calculation so can u correct me if im wrong or is it ok what i wrote ? If yes i could let code an ea in that kind of thing


So i wanted to ask if probability is calculated like this ?

all the best

if 1+1=2 can be changed then this game algo can be changed and someone will win with math robots

u are young my frieind, they discover the math before even ur grande father born or more, u cant beat them and they do exist

cheers life is hard then u die

Now that's funny, you made me laugh!

there is something like this before and trust me it always end with your account wipe out, they try grid ,tunnel martingle and other algorithm ea but market is unpredictable and your loses compounded and profit you need for breakeven get more and more bigger. No u just waste ur time to create this ea. forget it.

No, because if you:
Lose all 5 trades, you are down 120 pips, not 3.75.
Lose 4 trades, win 1, you are down 60+15+15+15-15=90 pips, not 2.81 pips.
Lose 3 trades, win 2, you are down 60+15+15-15-15=60 pips, not 1.875 pips.
etc etc.

Likewise, for winners, you bet the same amount for the next trade, so I don't see an edge? You stated that hypothetically the win rate is set in stone at 50%, so no matter if I bet 60 pips or 15 pips, you still just have a 50% chance of hitting your TP.

I know what you're thinking. You think that the probability of losing twice in a row with a 50% win rate, is 25%. Therefore you think that:
If I lose twice, i would lose 60+15=75 pips.
If I win twice, I would gain 60+60=120 pips.

But do you see how the next 4 winners following a loser only gains +15 pips, rather than 60 pips?
Over a large enough data set, with a 50% win rate, you would see that for the 4 15-pip trades following a loser, would yield approximately 2 losses and 2 wins, cancelling each other out.

Well I'm happy to help, in any way that I can

Right, i got thank you!

probability % = sl / (tp + sl )

Here`s the problem.

Unless the spread is 0.
The 1:1 R:R will straight away kill your account provided that your profitability is below 51%.

In reality to be break even, your reward needs to be greater than risk in order to factor in the spread.

P.S. if anyone has such a calculator please share it, i`ve been strugling to calculate breakeven factoring in the spread + commissions for weeks :-(

EVERY single reply its wrong:

YES you can win more than 50% with a 1:1 ratio easily (or like people likes to say "Risk/reward")

Unless you are stacking trades with different targets at the same moment then THERE ITS NO CONNECTION BETWEEN THE OUTCOME OF 1 TRADE AND THE NEXT ONE !! so the "win lose in a row" "distribution of win/lose" its a flawed concept right from the start because IF you are using EXACTLY THE SAME conditions as a trigger to place a trade (and you know that those conditions WILL give you a very high chance that the price will move in your favor) then you are using an statistical advantage in your favor.. if you are using some random entrys (statistically they are not exactly the same wich = no edge in your favor) then you are still a noob and you WILL get some random/inconsistent results, wich you will try to make sense using "distribution" and crap like that buring you in mediocrity..

You NEED an statistical "edge" and to KNOW for how long its going to exist !! if its going to be 3 pips, or 12 or 41,32545 pips thats your target, not some random "ratio/risk reward" etc etc.. you NEED to hit the target that the "statistical advantage" its giving you (whatever the size it is), thats your ONLY goal with a running trade , not some dream of "R:R" you have in your mind !! UNDERSTAND IT

EVOLVE, dont be a noob =)

There is something called "BID/ASK" prices and targets should take those in consideration.. Once you understand this you dont need to "factor in" the spread..

basic 101 trading

Might depend on luck.the problem here is that it is 50:50 on each roll.when you try to guess between 2 cups which one is empty,after the first failure,the next will be 100%.but here you have it reset after each guess.