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  • #20,041
  • Jun 15, 2018 10:11am Jun 15, 2018 10:11am
Quoting Boulder
1st ea long trigger for this cycle... {image}
so far no drop.. if it holds.. i think it will drift up with little retrace based on the 1.25 retrace in reverse. I am long.. 1.2032 is a norm too.. baby step at 1696
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,042
  • Jun 15, 2018 10:17am Jun 15, 2018 10:17am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} so far no drop.. if it holds.. i think it will drift up with little retrace based on the 1.25 retrace in reverse. I am long..
great,,,I am waiting for a little drop for lunch money,,,
I had 3 long scalps in the morning and out already ...
  • #20,043
  • Jun 15, 2018 10:22am Jun 15, 2018 10:22am
Quoting Boulder
Eur/Usd: Daily Market Trends Update 6/15/2018 1H, Uptrend, Trend stop at 1H close 1.1550, Running Period: 1x1H
Rejections usually don't retrace much, they just drift in the same direction. we had one yesterday on the way down from 1824..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,044
  • Jun 15, 2018 10:27am Jun 15, 2018 10:27am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Rejections usually don't retrace much, they just drift in the same direction. we had one yesterday on the way down from 1824..
thank you,, that is good to know,,,
  • #20,045
  • Jun 15, 2018 10:34am Jun 15, 2018 10:34am
the day week and month have closed lower.. time to check 1553 rejection theory. unlike 1824 was,, this one has day week and month against it,,

but so did the drop from 250x..it turned on a dime.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,046
  • Jun 15, 2018 11:08am Jun 15, 2018 11:08am
Quoting gatorinla
the day week and month have closed lower.. time to check 1553 rejection theory. unlike 1824 was,, this one has day week and month against it,, but so did the drop from 250x..it turned on a dime.
lunch money in 1613.. and 1604
  • #20,047
  • Jun 15, 2018 11:40am Jun 15, 2018 11:40am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} lunch money in 1613.. and 1604
I am cheap... peanut butter and jelly ok too sometimes// low carbs now days.. apple slices and peanut butter.. its filling..not too bad either. it's actually pretty good>
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,048
  • Jun 15, 2018 11:47am Jun 15, 2018 11:47am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I am cheap... peanut butter and jelly ok too sometimes// low carbs now days.. apple slices and peanut butter.. its filling..not too bad either. it's actually pretty good>
lol...it may not work this time..
  • #20,049
  • Jun 15, 2018 12:00pm Jun 15, 2018 12:00pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} lol...it may not work this time..
>>not much retrace,, but its not drifting north either.. friday... ?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,050
  • Jun 15, 2018 12:55pm Jun 15, 2018 12:55pm
Have a pending prolly trigger SUN/Mon, then UP
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A good trader follows his rules, but great trader knows when to break them
  • #20,051
  • Jun 15, 2018 1:47pm Jun 15, 2018 1:47pm
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  • #20,052
  • Jun 15, 2018 7:53pm Jun 15, 2018 7:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
dollar rising and oil rising.. something seems off. I can see 77 and even 86. But something seems off with the rise in oil with a stronger usd. Maybe the Iran situation or something. I think the rise is on borrowed time now. I don't think this rise will not sustain w/o a retrace. {image}
oil with a decent drop//

possible bounce 62.17
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,053
  • Jun 16, 2018 7:02am Jun 16, 2018 7:02am
The quarter month week and day have closed lower than the previous. Its near mid year end in june, the second quarter. Last year closed 1.2001. Bears need to close 1553 on the day. Or it should rise. The year pong at 1447. Norm at 1446, I expect shit to hit the fan soon. Norm may not be reached. I don't know for sure, this area anytime now may be a wtf area on the larger scales. 1446/to current lows may be supportive . Eu did dip a toe below 1553, but so far. The day, week and month closed above. They closed above after being below. I will be buying dips above 1446 area. In the management of R/R The reward to 1.2001 is greater. Norm atm is 1.2032 (i think). The last year candle is bullish.


The quarter month week and day have a closed below previous. This post may be early or even late. The rate raise and the ecb latest news are not in agreement with this. So take it with a grain of salt. Watch what it does, not what people say it will do. It still has lots of room to close below 1553 and above 1447.. But it has not done it yet below 1553. It may not either.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,054
  • Jun 16, 2018 7:31am Jun 16, 2018 7:31am
Quoting gatorinla
The quarter month week and day have closed lower than the previous. Its near mid year end in june, the second quarter. Last year closed 1.2001. Bears need to close 1553 on the day. Or it should rise. The year pong at 1447. Norm at 1446, I expect shit to hit the fan soon. Norm may not be reached. I don't know for sure, this area anytime now may be a wtf area on the larger scales. 1446/to current lows may be supportive . Eu did dip a toe below 1553, but so far. The day, week and month closed above. They closed above after being below. I will be buying...
The current 1509 may even be the low. Last weeks pa made a valid target for 21xx.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,055
  • Jun 16, 2018 9:02am Jun 16, 2018 9:02am
EURUSD Next week possible Levels
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  • #20,056
  • Jun 16, 2018 7:00pm Jun 16, 2018 7:00pm
How Institutions Position Themselves In Euro/Usd This Week

Until Tuesday, institutions continued to cut their Euro bullish bets for 8 weeks in a row , which was shown in the latest COT as of Tuesday, June 12, 2018.

The institutions net long Euro positions decreased last week by 1,010 contracts to 88,225 contracts
3,287 long positions were closed, and 2,277 short positions were closed as well . Now Longs total 236,617 contracts vs shorts total 148,392 contracts .

61% long exposure vs 39% short exposure, which is the same as the previous week

This week Euro started at 1.1716 on 6/5, hit low at 1.1710 support , then bounced up to 1.1839 high on 7th, closed at 1.1744 on 6/12/2018

Despite the bounce in the EUR to 1.1840s this week, Institutions continued to cut their long position , so this looks bearish

Longs being closed indicates they might think the temporary top at 1.1840s ranges; Some Shorts being closed at 1.17s levels, which they might help their longs
also it indicates they might think the temporary bottom at 1.17s ranges;

We did see after COT report, Euro had impulsive move to the downside to the low 1.1543 last Friday on 6/15/2018

Long Term Less Bullish, Short Term Bearish With Some Hesitation

Please note institutions take weeks and months to build a position in the currency market. For Euro, they have built their net long positions since 5/9/2017.
Therefore, the bullish sentiment is more for long term outlook, not intended for short term trading.
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  • #20,057
  • Edited 10:38pm Jun 16, 2018 10:21pm | Edited 10:38pm
Quoting Boulder
How Institutions Position Themselves In Euro/Usd This Week Until Tuesday, institutions continued to cut their Euro bullish bets for 8 weeks in a row , which was shown in the latest COT as of Tuesday, June 12, 2018. The institutions net long Euro positions decreased last week by 1,010 contracts to 88,225 contracts 3,287 long positions were closed, and 2,277 short positions were closed as well . Now Longs total 236,617 contracts vs shorts total 148,392 contracts . 61% long exposure vs 39% short exposure, which is the same as the previous week This...
question.. 8 weeks is solid...eu candle wise.. 7 weeks are rare.. I was wondering in there is anyone plotting cot alone on a chart. If so is 7 weeks rare for cot?
the last time it had 7 green candle, the trend changed.. I wonder about this time with 7 red candles.. the weeks following the 7 are opposite.. meaning candle eigh and 9 are exact opposite when compared. the shapes and wicks are similar.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #20,058
  • Edited 11:05pm Jun 16, 2018 10:50pm | Edited 11:05pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} question.. 8 weeks is solid...eu candle wise.. 7 weeks are rare.. I was wondering in there is anyone plotting cot alone on a chart. If so is 7 weeks rare for cot? the last time it had 7 green candle, the trend changed.. I wonder about this time with 7 red candles.. the weeks following the 7 are opposite.. meaning candle eigh and 9 are exact opposite when compared. the shapes and wicks are similar. {image}
let me check.. I will get back to you shortly...
I just thought about...we can't do that comparison,, since COT cut off dates are every Tuesdays..., let me think about it...
  • #20,059
  • Jun 16, 2018 11:03pm Jun 16, 2018 11:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} question.. 8 weeks is solid...eu candle wise.. 7 weeks are rare.. I was wondering in there is anyone plotting cot alone on a chart. If so is 7 weeks rare for cot? the last time it had 7 green candle, the trend changed.. I wonder about this time with 7 red candles.. the weeks following the 7 are opposite.. meaning candle eigh and 9 are exact opposite when compared. the shapes and wicks are similar. {image}
I have been tracking this since 1/1/2017... for a year and half.. this is the 2nd time happened in COT , 8 weeks in a row for the same direction.. I have highlighted previous one....
please note.. COT weeks end on Tuesdays
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  • #20,060
  • Jun 16, 2018 11:25pm Jun 16, 2018 11:25pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I have been tracking this since 1/1/2017... for a year and half.. this is the 2nd time happened in COT , 8 weeks in a row for the same direction.. I have highlighted previous one.... please note.. COT weeks end on Tuesdays {image}
need a bigger sample.. the one your showing has one for 8 weeks.. the ninth week turned if I am reading this correctly.. this tuesday is week nine.. take in consideration the trend line on the way up.. and looking to left on the chart. last weeks may be bottomish. the pong at 1447 usually turns before.. it may screw 1446.. last week 1852 was pong.. it turned before reaching it.. plus if the 1509 low held i have a valid 21xx target.. with a 2032 norm..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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