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Aud -Red Alert

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 3, 2006 5:38pm Oct 3, 2006 5:38pm
Any plays on the Aud rate statement forthcoming?
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #2
  • Oct 3, 2006 5:52pm Oct 3, 2006 5:52pm
I'm going to twist up a fatty~~ buy-stop just in case there is a surprise. nothing to lose and plenty to gain.
Attached Image
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #3
  • Oct 3, 2006 5:55pm Oct 3, 2006 5:55pm
Quoting summitfx
I'm going to twist up a fatty~~ buy-stop just in case there is a surprise. nothing to lose and plenty to gain.
That's a good move.
  • #4
  • Oct 3, 2006 6:08pm Oct 3, 2006 6:08pm
Well if seems the AUD/USD pair has been going down all day, so I guess the market has already priced in the pause. I plan to hedge the AUD ( against USD and JPY) incase there are big surprises. I dont imgine there will be, but I will be ready (I hope) if there is a surprise.

I will report my results after the trade. I wish you all well.
  • #5
  • Oct 3, 2006 6:10pm Oct 3, 2006 6:10pm
hay summitfx
I'm going to do the same thing


RATE OUTLOOK: RECENT AUSTRALIAN DATA SUGGEST RBA'S MAY, AUGUST RATE RISES HAVE IMPACTED ON GROWTH, MEANING RBA'S LIKELY TO KEEP RATES STEADY IN NOVEMBER - NAB IN A NOTE TO CLIENTS
- "With evidence that the May/August rate hikes have impacted growth and a slowing U.S./global economy, the RBA should be able to look through a high CPI print."
**Note: NAB head of research Peter Jolly

I got this from TTN


and I want to ask about AUD Trade balance It was good mover after 8th month of this year on Aug and Sep it did not show good move
on sep it was high deviation from 4cast and prev number
any idea about it
  • #6
  • Oct 3, 2006 6:10pm Oct 3, 2006 6:10pm
Quoting summitfx
I'm going to twist up a fatty
you better pass that shit!
Relax and be happy.
  • #7
  • Oct 3, 2006 6:12pm Oct 3, 2006 6:12pm
i dont see a rate hike coming anytime soon from RBA, or any language in the statement to that effect. in fact, i am expecting a dovish statement with the recent slid in oil prices.
Relax and be happy.
  • #8
  • Oct 3, 2006 6:22pm Oct 3, 2006 6:22pm
going short aud/nzd now
Quoting merlin
i dont see a rate hike coming anytime soon from RBA, or any language in the statement to that effect. in fact, i am expecting a dovish statement with the recent slid in oil prices.
THE MAN
  • #9
  • Oct 3, 2006 6:25pm Oct 3, 2006 6:25pm
dud
  • #10
  • Oct 3, 2006 6:26pm Oct 3, 2006 6:26pm
nah its not a dud, yet. the RBA will make some comments here soon, that should move the market...
Relax and be happy.
  • #11
  • Oct 3, 2006 6:27pm Oct 3, 2006 6:27pm
Well rate came in as expected and there was no big move. I lost about $12 on this on, but it was mainly on the spread. Spread on the AUD/JPY is 7 pips on forex.com.
  • #12
  • Oct 3, 2006 6:28pm Oct 3, 2006 6:28pm
Watch for trade balance later at 9:30 instead. that will move AUD
  • #13
  • Oct 3, 2006 6:31pm Oct 3, 2006 6:31pm
change it from red to yellow
Quoting forexplayer
dud
THE MAN
  • #14
  • Oct 3, 2006 6:35pm Oct 3, 2006 6:35pm
The rate came in as expected, so you cant expect a VERY large move can you??
  • #15
  • Oct 3, 2006 6:38pm Oct 3, 2006 6:38pm
What are looking at BK?


Quoting BurgerKing
Watch for trade balance later at 9:30 instead. that will move AUD
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #16
  • Oct 3, 2006 6:39pm Oct 3, 2006 6:39pm
Quoting mkkr
change it from red to yellow
LOL
Relax and be happy.
  • #17
  • Oct 3, 2006 6:41pm Oct 3, 2006 6:41pm
I think all Rate increase announcements have to be red because of the potential move!
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #18
  • Oct 3, 2006 6:57pm Oct 3, 2006 6:57pm
Trade Balance is not "straddle friendly". I'd suggest dont straddle this. If you must, keep the distance and TP very close to get in and out in an instant!

Looking at history, I personally dont see anything AUD Positive coming out of Trade Balance. Therefore, I prefer to short AUDUSD. I may put a SELL Limit above current price to catch a reversal; the risk is that should Trade Balance comes out indeed AUD Positive (which happened last May) there could be a real up move.

Be ready to fake this one!

BTW. Commodities dropped in US session! AUD is a commodity currency. Will commodities drop futher in Asia and London session?

Quote
I think all Rate increase announcements have to be red because of the potential move!

Red only if there is expected raise or drop. It fails to move when there is no change (unlike US FOMC's no change)...
  • #19
  • Oct 3, 2006 7:03pm Oct 3, 2006 7:03pm
"RBA leaves Cash Rate unchanged at 6.00% as widely expected, after yesterday's monthly board meeting. The Cash Rate was last hiked on August 2 from 5.75% by 25bps to current 6.00%. Chances of a RBA hike in November to 6.25%. AUD/USD little changed at 0.7430-35, with AUD/USD seen coming under pressure on the falling oil and gold prices, AUD/NZD selling. Focus on Aust trade balance at 0130GMT, 4CAST sees a -500mln in trade gap for August, a near AUD1bln to be weigh on AUD again."
Trade what you see - Not what you think
  • #20
  • Oct 3, 2006 7:46pm Oct 3, 2006 7:46pm
JUST MAKING LIGHT OF THE MOVE.
LOL
Quoting summitfx
I think all Rate increase announcements have to be red because of the potential move!
THE MAN
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