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Diversified Trend Trading Approach

  • #4,001
  • Edited 5:45pm Jun 5, 2018 6:37am | Edited 5:45pm
Quoting HeyYou
Take a break from FF C.
Hoping this thread doesn't disintegrate...and just hoping visitors here can actually read. I sense the ego's arriving, but it has had a rather unusual long life of relative sanity in this FF. :-)

PS Not a bad idea though....as if I piss off for a while...maybe this thread will return to it's charming nature.

I am taking a break for while folks before the wolves arrive. I will return at a later date.

PS You sold me on the idea H. A good one mate.

Cheers

C
  • #4,002
  • Edited 10:06pm Jun 5, 2018 6:41am | Edited 10:06pm
ODE TO EMPIRICISM

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There is one universe in which resides ALL there is ....which is the limit boundary comprising the volume of the pre-requisite information needed for us to be able to solve this universal riddle of "how come?".

To the empiricist and to the diversified trend follower whose philosophy is dictated by ‘signals in the noise’ ….that’s all we have to work with folks.........and in that universe the ALL creates conservation laws and associated symmetries...such as the Laws of conservation of information, conservation of energy, conservation of the speed of light in vacuo etc., etc. etc.....

Every complex system within this universal context is a ‘nested sub-system’ of a greater system whole in which there are no laws. These nested hierarchies just need to obey the higher conservation laws.

While only governed by one master, these sub-systems possess a degree of self-regulation by forever moving goal posts of emergent structures built on fickle and temporary constraints that are transitioning towards this universal end-state. All sub systems move between states of false equilibria and have dynamic and non-stationery 'moving' conditions.

There is only one closed system, being this universe, with all the other system subsets being ultimately open systems no matter how hard they try to close....and none more so Machiavellian in character than the financial markets.

While each sub-system appears to beat its own unique rhythm, the universal laws of the universe flow through all these nested systems ensuring there is a coordinated rhythm throughout the nested hierarchical structure of system within system.

While we may be tricked into thinking that a sub-system has Laws.... no such discreet laws exist. You need empiricism to reveal this trickery.

The only laws applicable to each sub system is that they must obey the universal laws of the universe.....this ensures consistency or 'covariance throughout'. This is what makes this universe sensical and is what gives rise to cause and effect.

Impossible is not a word that is applicable to this realm as there are golden rules applied by this universe to prescribe what can be achieved and what can't be achieved. Don't listen to the fruit-loops who believe in impossibility. We are all limited to only the possibilities that empiricism demands. Our maths can model different universes that seem impossible to this universe….but that is not the reality of a conscious observer from this universe. Leave that to the insane, or the philosophers and the mathematicians who stretch beyond empiricism into abstract mind or mathematical models.

Leave the reality of our particular universe to the scientific method and the very sane.

So to these financial markets. There are no laws or golden rules for all time in these markets....which are clearly open ended and interconnected sub-systems of the greater economic sub system...of the greater universal system. It is just one big moving feast where you have to adapt to survive in it. Fictitious ‘Laws’ in any sub system are temporary only while conditions hold.....and then with a vicious twist when the equilibrium is disturbed, these markets turn on their head and the goal posts shift again with a new ‘false’ equilibrium condition. That is uncertainty dear reader....and that is why our future fate is a divergent problem not a convergent problem.

Divergence relates to how markets evolve towards an unpredictable future state (future higher/lower equilibrium) and is forward looking. Real risk relates to the uncertainty of the future…or where the new goal posts will be shifted to.

Convergence is backward looking relating to how a market appears to always return to a predictable past state (past equilibrium). As Mark Twain notes…”History doesn’t repeat itself….but it does rhyme”.

A divergent mindset is uncertain about certainty as they are forward looking. A convergent mindset is certain about uncertainty as they are backward looking.

You can think you are divergent until risk exposes your actual lack of it. An inquisitive scientist only sees divergence.....all theories can be overturned....there are no constants in these sub-systems..... except the universe itself.

All subsystems are on an entropic quest to merge with the universal condition of 'true equilibrium'....they are all directional in nature towards the future state....but through nature's trickery in consuming external resources to that system to give it a temporary lower entropy, some systems can flout the over-arching rule book of the universe for a short while.....like ‘life itself’...or the ‘cosmic clusters held in a gravitational embrace’. But when all is said and done there is just the ultimate trajectory toward an homogeneous state of infinite 'nothingness'. A state that is very real...but simply comprises 'no things'. From order to disorder and then perhaps with a bounce or a flip it begins again into timelessness. Empiricism however rules out the bounce at this stage of enquiry until we find evidence for it.

The clues to this gigantic riddle are the 'Signals in the Noise'. It lies in the *useful* information of serial repetition (aka the order) that we can extract from disorder and at this point in time. We are very fortunate (though luck might have nothing to do with it) to be in the middle of this state or condition between order and disorder. On a deeper ‘no luck’ level there is perhaps a very good reason why we can pose these thought provoking questions 'now' ......as in this state we can still empirically test it.

Our ability to test our hypothesis through empiricism is how we hold onto a reality without going mad.

But there are so many ‘false signals’ in this noise already. So many random ways in which you can construct noise to have apparent meaning. It is through empiricism that we test these signals against the greater Laws of this universe which are set in stone where the ‘true signal will be found’….or the fact will be found from the fiction.

As the eons pass however there will ultimately be no way to empirically test this knowledge as the noise will dominate the signals and then science will have to be left to the *mad* philosophers only.....but then the mind itself according to the universal rule book will subsume to the ultimate universal state of nothingness as well.

Everything is already in this universe including the 'state of our minds'...but we are progressively absorbing all the useful content until once again the conscious observer of this universe dissipates into the void.

Have faith in empiricism for as long as it lasts. I will follow empiricism to the ends of this universe my friend, my leader, my Captain…..for this will keep me sane for this very short time we are around to cherish sanity.

C
  • #4,003
  • Jun 5, 2018 10:00am Jun 5, 2018 10:00am
Quoting Copernicus
Hoping this thread doesn't disintegrate...just hoping visitors here can actually read. I sense the ego's arriving but it has had a rather unusual long life of relative sanity in this FF. :-) PS Not a bad idea though....as if I piss off for a while...maybe this thread will return to it's charming nature. Taking a break for while folks before the wolves arrive. I will return at a later date...
The Wolves are not after you C..., they are after me.
And wherever I go, they leave a havoc chasing me around.
Don't worry, I'll lead them away from here
Keep up the good work
  • #4,004
  • Jun 5, 2018 1:47pm Jun 5, 2018 1:47pm
It's getting darker...

https://image.ibb.co/jr67so/Wolf.jpg
The biggest risk is not taking a risk.
  • #4,005
  • Jun 5, 2018 3:35pm Jun 5, 2018 3:35pm
Quoting Rennaissance
Stop looking for better entry point and start looking for where to take your profits. When I went through countless of my trades over 5 years I realized that if I held unto my winners longer and risk loosing a small profit for a bigger one, I would have come out way better. Instead of 45% win with risk to return of 1.5x, I should have went for 30% win with risk to return of 5x. I often sold a position and bought it back at a higher price, had I held on I would have made killings. If it profits you I m glad my advice , HOLD ON TO THOSE WINNERS.
yes, entry and exit are important and most people are doing reserch only on them, they forgot about trade management and adding to winners
Price itself it's an indicator
  • #4,006
  • Jun 5, 2018 6:05pm Jun 5, 2018 6:05pm
Quoting CrucialPoint
{quote} The Wolves are not after you C..., they are after me. And wherever I go, they leave a havoc chasing me around. Don't worry, I'll lead them away from here Keep up the good work
Cheers CP.

Mate, it would be great if we could find a quiet place to chill and discuss the big questions, but forums such as these are not conducive for it. I was suspect that with your arrival on this thread....the legion of pricks who have harassed you for so long would closely follow so to keep this thread 'alive'....it's probably best if we both take a vacation from here for a while and let the good guys keep this thread going if they want to.

When my 'prick filter' detects an attitudinal shift on this thread back to the good ol' days then I will return but a break is in order anyway....and Hey You picked up that vibe well.

Sorry about this CP...and really sorry for the way you have been treated on this forum. Despite your solid resolve and refusal to allow the wolves to get the better of you, I had perhaps a very small sense of what you have had to go through....and it sux.

....anyway....my bags are packed....the iron is off....and I have my swimming trunks and towel. I think that's it. ..............I'm now off on vacation.

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Cheers

C
  • #4,007
  • Jun 6, 2018 2:34am Jun 6, 2018 2:34am
Quoting Copernicus
ODE TO EMPIRICISM {image} There is one universe in which resides ALL there is ....which is the limit boundary comprising the volume of the pre-requisite information needed for us to be able to solve this universal riddle of "how come?". To the empiricist and to the diversified trend follower whose philosophy is dictated by ‘signals in the noise’ ….that’s all we have to work with folks.........and in that universe the ALL creates conservation laws and associated symmetries...such as the Laws of conservation of information, conservation of energy,...

Holy s...awesome read. I agree with everything you said.

Even though I'm not a materialist, there's both physical and spiritual in my experience, so there is also mysticism.
  • #4,008
  • Jun 6, 2018 3:03am Jun 6, 2018 3:03am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} Holy s...awesome read. I agree with everything you said. Even though I'm not a materialist, there's both physical and spiritual in my experience, so there is also mysticism.

P.s. I'm not talking about crazy rituals or fanatisms. not going into details, I keep it personal just I found some truth in the Buddhist teachings and the Jewish and the Christian as well.... and of course in my own (mostly).
  • #4,009
  • Jun 7, 2018 3:23am Jun 7, 2018 3:23am
Also Copernicus post explains why strict risk management is key to survive. because in case the system stops working, you're still in time to take the money and run and eventually start all over in the future. that is something I will consider in case the lord of statistcs lets me grow the account enough. you know 50%/year out of a 1k account is ........... ridicolous.



by the way empiricism is ALL we need as traders from what I know, sorry for the OT.
  • #4,010
  • Edited Jun 10, 2018 10:47am Jun 9, 2018 11:59am | Edited Jun 10, 2018 10:47am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} He came to the thread from the astral plane and was doing that Zen stuff again. I think I nutted it out....as my gut was telling me it was a stab in the eye to systematic trading. Your detox is a great idea mate. I need to do the same thing. Health farm it is for me.../tic :-)
You know I like you bro... just a weekend is not enough to detox yourself from what you read from others.

Take a full month off from this thread, forum, books, Youtube and trading.

Only you can pave your path but first you have to DEFINE your destination.
Staying in my lane...
  • #4,011
  • Jun 9, 2018 12:39pm Jun 9, 2018 12:39pm
Quote
Only you can pave your path but first you have to DEFINE your destination.


This sentence is gold!
Necessity knows no law except to conquer
  • #4,012
  • Jun 10, 2018 3:56am Jun 10, 2018 3:56am
First dashboard camera:
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Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #4,013
  • Edited 10:28pm Jun 18, 2018 9:59pm | Edited 10:28pm
The only truism in this FX space......The Brokers 'Fugazi"

This entire world was made possible by the human desire to gamble or think they can predict uncertainty and the way the very sane but unscrupulous hyenas encircle to exploit this human behaviour. You just gotta love McConaughey......terrific scene.

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  • #4,014
  • Jun 18, 2018 10:26pm Jun 18, 2018 10:26pm
Nice common sense opinion of Technical Analysis

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  • #4,015
  • Jun 19, 2018 3:02pm Jun 19, 2018 3:02pm
Does anybody know where to get such economic framework papers from these seminars?

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Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
  • #4,016
  • Jun 19, 2018 10:13pm Jun 19, 2018 10:13pm
Quoting Ramadas
Does anybody know where to get such economic framework papers from these seminars? {image} {image}
You might have to contact Man AHL direct. :-)

There are a whole bunch of white papers here...not sure if it helps.
  • #4,017
  • Jun 20, 2018 2:52am Jun 20, 2018 2:52am
Quoting Copernicus
The only truism in this FX space......The Brokers 'Fugazi" This entire world was made possible by the human desire to gamble or think they can predict uncertainty and the way the very sane but unscrupulous hyenas encircle to exploit this human behaviour. You just gotta love McConaughey......terrific scene. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wM6exo00T5I


ha ha ha you're back

also being a CFD broker is like gambling. take something like the SNB or a black swan..

even if you're a mm you'll still have to pay the winners and get nothing from the losers.
if you're a NDD and offer high leverage you'll probably go bankrupt/insolvent.



P.S. personal question if you don't mind:

Did you ever blow an account due to overtrading / overleverage ?

How much time did you spend blowing accounts before getting sick of blowing accounts ?

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  • #4,018
  • Edited 5:50am Jun 20, 2018 5:29am | Edited 5:50am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} ha ha ha you're back also being a CFD broker is like gambling. take something like the SNB or a black swan.. even if you're a mm you'll still have to pay the winners and get nothing from the losers. if you're a NDD and offer high leverage you'll probably go bankrupt/insolvent. P.S. personal question if you don't mind: Did you ever blow an account due to overtrading / overleverage ? How much time did you spend blowing accounts before getting sick of blowing accounts ? {image}
1980s to 1990s was when I blew several quite large accounts in equities with fundamentals and options. I got more serious after that with spread trading equities......then on to CFDs...and almost went down the gurgler with client accounts.. but managed to save face. About 2012 onwards started getting better with portfolio management across asset classes with derivatives like CFDs and FX.
  • #4,019
  • Jun 20, 2018 5:55am Jun 20, 2018 5:55am
Quoting Copernicus
{quote} 1980s to 1990s was when I blew several quite large accounts in equities with fundamentals and options. I got more serious after that with spread trading equities......then on to CFDs...and almost went down the gurgle with client accounts.. but managed to save face. About 2012 onwards started getting better with portfolio management across asset classes with derivatives like CFDs and FX.
Ah good to see that nobody is born wise, not even the best
  • #4,020
  • Jun 20, 2018 6:03am Jun 20, 2018 6:03am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} Ah good to see that nobody is born wise, not even the best
I am battered and grey......but I still love these markets. :-)
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