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multiple systems per pair/multiple pairs per system? 3 replies

Trading 24 hours per day, 5 days per week 14 replies

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(binned per thread starter’s request) World Currency Unit

  • #21
  • Edited Jun 9, 2018 10:53am Jun 8, 2018 2:35pm | Edited Jun 9, 2018 10:53am
Quoting neilsdigest
Still not too sure what can be gained? Currency Strength. That is one powerful currency strength. Not a basket of the usual EUR, GBP, JPY etc but a real basket of the 20 highest GDP currencies. The AUD was very, very weak dropping against every currency including the Russian Rubble (RUB) and Polish Zloty (PLN) If you look at a WCU/JPY chart, what do you see?. Extreme JPY strength against every currency. Now open a AUD/JPY chart on MT4 and see how it has mega dropped in the last few days (15th - 16th March 2018) More powerful then any useless...

that is the key IMO. when something is weak or strong AGAINST ALL THE OTHER CURRENCIES. Strength and weakness is relative. so what is strong or weak relative to?

all right i'l stop hijacking the thread man. just got excited to see this. Tx again
  • #22
  • Jun 8, 2018 3:29pm Jun 8, 2018 3:29pm
Quoting dagoods
{quote} hey man. the way i see it, the lagging is exactly what is useful about it... forex pairs are all related. each one affects the others to a certain extent. so it is a game of follow the leader. if you know what one is going to do and that the others are going to follow it. you have a path or road map of what one or more currencies are going to do. In theory it works perfectly (for highly correlated pairs, either positively or negatively). the issue has been that the so called correlation indicators don't actually work, for some unknown reason....
Perfect.... When you see one dropping like a bomb and the other correlated currency/pair isn't.... You know it will.... You cant get any more powerful than that.
It the only time I love seeing a currency/pair lag for a bit while it's correlated currency drops/rises strongly. It catches up..

But don't give this away... It's a secret!!!
P.S I'll do an overlay chart to the one who asked.... But remember it's Friday night here.. No working until Monday.

And dagoods...... Hijack the thread mate.... Have fun with it.
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #23
  • Jun 8, 2018 3:37pm Jun 8, 2018 3:37pm
Quoting dagoods
{quote} that is the key IMO. when something is weak or strong AGAINST ALL THE OTHER CURRENCIES. all right i'l stop hijacking the thread man. just got excited to see this. Tx again
Yes, remember if like a powerful currency like the JPY is weak against the WCU - Russian rubble and the Indian rupee etc, etc.. YOU KNOW its weak.
Not indicator weak or even currency strength weak but flaming real money making power weak.
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #24
  • Jun 8, 2018 3:50pm Jun 8, 2018 3:50pm
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=11150092#post11150092

put a link to your thread over there. maybe some coder will wise up & work on something useful for a change.
  • #25
  • Jun 8, 2018 4:56pm Jun 8, 2018 4:56pm
Quoting dagoods
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=11150092#post11150092 put a link to your thread over there. maybe some coder will wise up & work on something useful for a change.
I'll get a pro coder from mql5 - Too many loonies in this forum... Trust me I attract them..
The most violent element in society is IGNORANCE
  • #26
  • Edited Jun 9, 2018 12:15am Jun 8, 2018 11:56pm | Edited Jun 9, 2018 12:15am
Quoting dagoods
{quote} that is the key IMO. when something is weak or strong AGAINST ALL THE OTHER CURRENCIES. all right i'l stop hijacking the thread man. just got excited to see this. Tx again
Good Post...it is one of the very legit ways to eliminate price manipulations by trading this way...

VeeFX: Price can be manipulated some time on some pair but not on all pairs and not all the time.

The key is in knowing when such moves happen and tie (correlate?) those with liquidity and volatility events.

By definition, I hate the term coorelation because by definition, it relates to one thing or the other and now (hopefully) many know how I personally feel about the outcome of measuring distance between two objects from a moving train...the outcome will never by consistent. It will always be a hit or miss resulting in an inconsistent strategy outcome. This was the primary reason for me to move from manual movers/shakers strength style of trading towards automation.

As I said, this thread (along with the "Win in Trend, win in Range" thread ) has GREAT potential, but idiot-filled swampfactory is unfortunately the worst place to have a creative and innovative discussion. It has become a sad place to stick around.

Using WCU as a "mean" to revert to is a very valid fundamental strategy based on my own knowledge of GDP, economic impact and global money flows....but I would not trade this style intra-day because of the re-indexing decay being introduced everh week by doing it only twice a year as part of the index design.....it definitely has a lot of merit with trading only twice a year OR...even better, fixate of price to the twice a year as a point of reference to follow fundamental moves and align your controls with the business cycles and other such events to capture and exploit volatile moves from those point of reference....one cousin us those two biannual events as buy/sell hemisphere (talking lingo of CrucialPoint here)

To the OP, I will only contribute to this thread if the four swamp degenerates I have put on "ignore" in my profile are permanently blocked from posting in your thread. One loser is already here and following me everywhere I go.

I have far more research and theories to "publish" as part of my journey for the swamp to return back to the great days of the Factory from 2006 when this site was truly a place for creative and focussed individuals to come and have meaningful dialogue. That seems to be no longer the case here at the Factory (as you already know)

PS. I also don't like to interact with developers unless it is open source for everyone is see the inner workings of any tool developed. I have been scanned 3 times so it is 3 strike rule for me.
Staying in my lane...
  • #27
  • Jun 9, 2018 12:29am Jun 9, 2018 12:29am
Quoting VEEFX
{quote} Good Post...it is one of the very legit ways to eliminate price manipulations by trading this way... VeeFX: Price can be manipulated some time on some pair but not on all pairs and not all the time. The key is in knowing when such moves happen and tie (correlate?) those with liquidity and volatility events. By definition, I hate the term coorelation because by definition, it relates to one thing or the other and now (hopefully) many know how I personally feel about the outcome of measuring distance between two objects from a moving train...the...

Tx veefx. perhaps some of the forex factory has little to zero understanding of the difference between currency strength and Pair or currency correlation. As you guys I'm sure know already, one cannot use the terms interchangeably as they refer to two entirely different concepts. For those reading along I'll explain my limited understanding in case it is useful or helpful.

Correlation = togetherness or lack of togetherness This is best viewed as an osculation around a mean it measure how much they are moving together either up or down.... It really does not care how weak or strong the two things being measured are moving. fast or slow makes zero difference to whether or not they are moving "in sync" i.e., moving together or not moving together. it is subtle but important distinction. It is what gives the timing of the entry, in theory.

Strength/weakness = duh, e1 knows what that is and it has nothing to do with togetherness currency A and B could move very very strongly, very very randomly, which is useless for correlation trading.

The idea comes from other threads and is not my own but it has been suggested that a pair that is moving strongly together with another pair that is correlated and about to move strongly is the ideal situation... IE strength (or weakness).... so what you'd see in the perfect setup is a strong move by pair or currency A then currency B(because it moves in correlation (strongly together following the moves of currency A) follows the leader and also goes in that direction. So A goes down fast you short B and boom then B goes short. or vice versa.

But you knew it would, ahead of time, (correlation is not predictive, because its never 100% accurate, but is as close as you can get to predicting because of the correlation being strong between A and B.


If the tools were working and the conditions were right the signals would be easy. So easy a two year old could trade it.
If A goes up or down you know B is about to go up or down. In theory they are perfect signals with a better than 90% chance of success. Of course it is all theory.

But i don't think it is limited to long term moves necessarily, but you could be right. It may be such is the case in the real world. Perhaps the only way to truly know would be with a properly calibrated set of tools. I personally did not find the readily available correlation tools of any use when i tested them, but please don't go by me. i'm certainly no expert. I just thought the theory was so good it was worth exploring further back int he day. Have not thought about it since, until this thread. Looking forward to learning from Ya'll.

Cheers
  • #28
  • Edited 12:50am Jun 9, 2018 12:34am | Edited 12:50am
Quoting neilsdigest
{quote} I'll get a pro coder from mql5 - Too many loonies in this forum... Trust me I attract them..

We'd probably want to normalize the data, somehow. I'd personally prefer the tools on the currency themselves rather than on the pairs as i think it would be more useful. ferrufx has very generously already done the hardest part and shared his source code freely >>>> https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=481576

all you need to do is get a coder to normalize it with WCU and stick WCU in there into those indicators for a basic tool for use as a measuring stick against all the currencies. at least that's what my tiny peanut non coder brain thinks LOL IF i recall correctly, i did notice one of ferru's indicators is already normalized as well (using % of 100 i think?)...anyway, hope it helps. Please share the source code or pm if you want to work on the logic of it together. Perhaps that would be a good basic tool.
If it proves useful, then it can get more advanced from there. Just a thought.

PS the correlation part would stick out visually like a sore thumb that way, no?
  • #29
  • Jun 9, 2018 12:37am Jun 9, 2018 12:37am
Quoting neilsdigest
{quote} Perfect.... When you see one dropping like a bomb and the other correlated currency/pair isn't.... You know it will.... You cant get any more powerful than that. It the only time I love seeing a currency/pair lag for a bit while it's correlated currency drops/rises strongly. It catches up.. But don't give this away... It's a secret!!! P.S I'll do an overlay chart to the one who asked.... But remember it's Friday night here.. No working until Monday. And dagoods...... Hijack the thread mate.... Have fun with it.
Strength Plus correlation = follow the leader situation = perfect trading conditions

Now it's not a secret any more. LOL
  • #30
  • Jun 9, 2018 1:02am Jun 9, 2018 1:02am
Quoting dagoods
{quote} Tx veefx. perhaps some of the forex factory has little to zero understanding of the difference between currency strength and Pair or currency correlation. As you guys I'm sure know already, one cannot use the terms interchangeably as they refer to two entirely different concepts. For those reading along I'll explain my limited understanding in case it is useful or helpful. Correlation = togetherness or lack of togetherness This is best viewed as an osculation around a mean it measure how much they are moving together either up or down.......
Thanks dagoods...
  • #31
  • Jun 9, 2018 1:04am Jun 9, 2018 1:04am
Quoting dagoods
{quote} Strength Plus correlation = follow the leader situation = perfect trading conditions Now it's not a secret any more. LOL
Dagoods,

Isn't it also possible, that the leader though went ahead, but instead of the slave/secondary following, the leader reverting back? I mean the leader moves being sort of like a fake move?

Thanks
  • #32
  • Jun 9, 2018 1:10am Jun 9, 2018 1:10am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Dagoods, Isn't it also possible, that the leader though went ahead, but instead of the slave/secondary following, the leader reverting back? I mean the leader moves being sort of like a fake move? Thanks
i don't see why not. Nobody ever claimed it was perfect. From what i've read though, statistically 90+% of the time a correlation will hold. So in theory 90+% of the time your trade should go in your favor. Again it is all theory and conjecture as far as i know. I've not done it personally with any success.

remember also that it is possibly a rare condition to have strength plus correlation plus enough of a lag to trade it. It is like an arbitrage.

Lets be patient and see what neil develops.
  • #33
  • Jun 9, 2018 1:11am Jun 9, 2018 1:11am
Quoting dagoods
{quote} i don't see why not. Nobody ever claimed it was perfect.
Dagoods...
  • #34
  • Jun 9, 2018 1:20am Jun 9, 2018 1:20am
Quoting dagoods
{quote} Tx veefx. perhaps some of the forex factory has little to zero understanding of the difference between currency strength and Pair or currency correlation. As you guys I'm sure know already, one cannot use the terms interchangeably as they refer to two entirely different concepts. For those reading along I'll explain my limited understanding in case it is useful or helpful. Correlation = togetherness or lack of togetherness This is best viewed as an osculation around a mean it measure how much they are moving together either up or down.......
correlation is a dead end.
because do not forget what can go up above.
or below.
I think an account can not be maintained in the long run.
  • #35
  • Jun 9, 2018 1:22am Jun 9, 2018 1:22am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} correlation is a dead end. because do not forget what can go up above. or below. I think an account can not be maintained in the long run.

do you have a reason for being so closed minded? it is a discussion thread, after all. Nobody is claiming you will get anything from the thread other than discussion. But you want the discussion to end before it begins? yet, you felt the need to post? weird. May we at least ask why you want to kill the thread? Plenty of folks have claimed to make boatloads from strength + correlation trading. Why should anyone believe you and not them? just asking

maybe it is a dead end, but can you prove it?
I certainly can't say one way or the other until tools get created to test neil's idea. time will tell. I'm staying tuned though.
  • #36
  • Jun 9, 2018 1:29am Jun 9, 2018 1:29am
Quoting dagoods
{quote} do you have a reason for being so closed minded? it is a discussion thread, after all. Nobody is claiming you will get anything from the thread other than discussion. But you want the discussion to end before it begins? yet, you felt the need to post? weird. May we at least ask why you want to kill the thread? Plenty of folks have claimed to make boatloads from strength + correlation trading. Why should anyone believe you and not them? just asking
no, only experience.
and the facts.

I do not want to hurt the thread.
  • #37
  • Jun 9, 2018 1:32am Jun 9, 2018 1:32am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} no, only experience. and the facts. I do not want to hurt the thread.

facts, as in your experience? those facts are relative to what you, personally did in the past. what neil is doing has never been done before. right? maybe neil cracks it
  • #38
  • Jun 9, 2018 1:38am Jun 9, 2018 1:38am
Quoting dagoods
{quote} facts, as in your experience? those facts are relative to what you, personally did in the past. what neil is doing has never been done before. right? maybe neil cracks it
the golden rule that goes up can go higher.
do not forget this.
I'm not negative just realistic.


although such a simple let trade.
  • #39
  • Jun 9, 2018 1:40am Jun 9, 2018 1:40am
Quoting aaven
{quote} Dagoods, Isn't it also possible, that the leader though went ahead, but instead of the slave/secondary following, the leader reverting back? I mean the leader moves being sort of like a fake move? Thanks

ya know i had to think about what you were saying a bit more. yeah man. that is a really really good point. Perhaps that is why the folks who claim to trade that way, insist on having strength plus correlation, and not just correlation. nice one.
  • #40
  • Jun 9, 2018 1:43am Jun 9, 2018 1:43am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} the golden rule that goes up can go higher. do not forget this. I'm not negative just realistic. although such a simple let trade.

good, you want it to go higher. correlation simply gives you a timed entry. that is the while point of having strength plus correlation rather than correlation alone. you are stacking probabilities and trading with direction & timing. In theory.

no idea what a simple let trade is. but fell free to expound. truth be told i'm simply enjoying the theoretical discussion. Almost Past my bed time though.
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